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PubMed2026

Thrombus Metabolism-Based Molecular Subtyping for Prognostic Risk Stratification in Acute Ischemic Stroke: A Preliminary Study.

AIMS: To preliminarily characterize metabolic molecular subtypes of cerebral thromboemboli and evaluate their clinical significance in anterior circulation acute ischemic stroke due to large vessel occlusion (AIS-LVO). METHODS: Untargeted metabolomics was performed on thromboemboli retrieved from 36 patients with anterior circulation AIS-LVO using ultra-performance coupled liquid chromatography with quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry (UPLC-Q-TOF-MS). Unsupervised hierarchical clustering was employed to identify distinct metabolic molecular subtypes, and their associations with stroke etiology, radiographic severity, and functional outcomes were analyzed. RESULTS: Two distinct thrombus metabolic molecular subtypes (C1 and C2) were identified based on 12 metabolites significantly associated with both short-term (7-day ∆NIHSS) and long-term (90-day mRS) functional outcomes. The C1 subtype, predominantly cardioembolic, exhibited enhanced lipid metabolism, whereas the C2 subtype, primarily atherothrombotic, demonstrated increased folate metabolism. Patients with C1 thromboemboli presented more severe admission ischemic lesions (as indicated by ASPECTS) and experienced poorer short-term and long-term outcomes. A six-metabolite signature derived from LASSO regression was identified for exploratory discrimination of thrombus metabolic subtypes, etiological subtypes, and 90-day outcomes. CONCLUSION: This preliminary exploratory study identifies two metabolically distinct thrombus molecular subtypes with clinical implications in anterior circulation AIS-LVO, providing a novel basis for risk stratification and personalized secondary prevention and warrants further investigation.

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PubMed2026

Sex-stratified analyses of femoral intercondylar notch morphology and ACL injury risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury is more common in females. Although ACL injury risk is multifactorial, involving neuromuscular, hormonal, and biomechanical factors, femoral intercondylar notch morphology is a proposed non-modifiable anatomical contributor that may help explain this disparity. This review synthesizes evidence on its association with ACL injury risk, analyses stratified by male and female sex. METHODS: A literature search of PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus was conducted through January 2026. After duplicate removal, 527 unique records were screened and 134 full texts assessed for eligibility. Twenty-four studies met inclusion criteria, with 22 providing quantitative data. Data were extracted on ACL-injured (ACLi) and control (ACLc) knees, stratified by sex. RESULTS: ACLi knees had narrower notch widths than ACLc knees in both females (MD -1.74 mm, 95% CI -2.54 to -0.95) and males (MD -1.31 mm, 95% CI -1.94 to -0.68), with substantial heterogeneity (I2 81-95%). NWI differences were significant in males (MD -0.01, 95% CI -0.02 to 0.00) but not females. Limited notch shape data suggested higher ACL injury odds with A-shaped notches in females (OR 2.85, 95% CI 0.07-110.66) and males (OR 1.67, 95% CI 0.00-3.98 × 105). CONCLUSION: Narrower femoral intercondylar notch width was consistently associated with ACL injury in both sexes, whereas findings for NWI and notch shape were limited by heterogeneity and sparse data. These results provide a structured synthesis of sex-specific anatomical risk factors and support femoral notch narrowing as a shared contributor, while highlighting the need for prospective, standardized studies in the future.

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PubMed2026

Extreme Temperature and Incident Diabetes Risk Among Middle-Aged and Older Adults in China: A National Longitudinal Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The metabolic consequences of extreme temperature exposure in nondiabetic populations remain poorly understood. This study aimed to examine associations between heatwave and coldwave exposure and incident diabetes mellitus (DM) and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) in middle-aged and older Chinese adults. METHODS: A total of 1803 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study participants aged ≥45 years with normoglycemia at baseline were followed from Wave 1 (2011) to Wave 3 (2015). Eighteen extreme-temperature indicators were derived from city-level fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis data. Outcomes were classified according to American Diabetes Association criteria. Generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMMs) were pooled across five imputed datasets, with Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons (α = 0.0028) and sensitivity analysis adjusting for individual follow-up duration. RESULTS: All nine heatwave indicators showed odds ratios (ORs) < 1.0 for DM and IGT. HT9 (≥97.5th percentile, ≥4 consecutive days) was the sole Bonferroni-significant result: OR = 0.845 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.802-0.890). Coldwave indicators showed no consistent associations. Age significantly modified the HT9 effect (P-interaction = 0.004): adults aged 65-84 showed a stronger inverse association (OR = 0.616) than those aged < 65 (OR = 0.921). CONCLUSION: Prolonged heatwave exposure was consistently associated with reduced diabetes risk, with pronounced age heterogeneity. Replication in larger prospective studies is warranted.

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PubMed2026

Diagnostic performance of machine learning models versus established risk stratification for intracranial aneurysm rupture: a systematic review and bivariate meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Machine learning (ML) models have been proposed to improve the discrimination of intracranial aneurysm rupture status beyond established clinical risk stratification tools. However, reported performance is heterogeneous and the relative contribution of model architecture and feature dominance remains unclear. METHODS: We performed a Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses-diagnostic test accuracy systematic review and diagnostic meta-analysis of studies evaluating ML models for intracranial aneurysm rupture discrimination. PubMed, Embase and CENTRAL were searched to February 2026. Sensitivity and specificity were pooled using a bivariate random-effects model, with summary receiver operating characteristic curves generated across training, internal testing and external validation datasets. Models were compared with regression-based approaches and Population, Hypertension, Age, Size of aneurysm, Earlier subarachnoid haemorrhage, Site of aneurysm (PHASES) scores. Subgroup and meta-regression analyses explored associations between algorithm family and feature domain. RESULTS: Sixty-two retrospective cohorts (29 709 patients 209 models) met the inclusion criteria. In training datasets, pooled sensitivity and specificity for ML were 0.81 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.85) and 0.83 (0.80-0.86), with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.878, exceeding PHASES (AUC 0.667). In testing datasets, ML retained higher discrimination (AUC 0.837) than regression models (0.806) and PHASES (0.646). In external validation, sensitivity was preserved (0.82), but specificity declined (0.66). Deep learning demonstrated the highest AUCs (training and testing). Incorporation of haemodynamic or radiomic features improved pooled discrimination relative to morphology alone. Evidence of small-study effects and mostly unclear Prediction Model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool ratings were observed. CONCLUSIONS: ML approaches demonstrate higher pooled discrimination for aneurysm rupture status than conventional risk scores in retrospective datasets, but reduced external validation specificity and heterogeneity limit confidence for clinical translation. Prospective, externally validated, calibrated models are required before integration into routine cerebrovascular risk stratification.

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PubMed2026

Risk factors for loss of skeletal muscle mass in patients with chronic kidney disease on a low-protein diet.

OBJECTIVES: A low-protein diet (LPD) is recommended for patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) to prevent a further decline in renal function. However, its impact on muscle mass in these patients remains unclear. This study investigated the risk factors for loss of muscle mass in patients with CKD on an LPD. METHODS: Eighty-four patients with predialysis CKD (59 men, mean age 61.9 ± 11.5 y) who participated in a multicenter randomized controlled trial initiated in 2014 were retrospectively reviewed. We collected data on baseline blood and urine tests, body composition, and dietary records at the start and end of the observation period. We evaluated muscle mass using the skeletal muscle index (SMI) and analyzed risk factors for a decrease in SMI during the 24-wk observation period, using logistic regression analysis. Variables with an association (P < 0.1) in univariate analysis, as well as age, sex, use of low-protein rice, and changes in protein intake, were subjected to multivariate analysis. RESULTS: SMI decreased in 50 patients (59.5%) during the observation period. Multivariate analysis identified significant associations of the SMI with serum albumin at baseline (odds ratio 0.11, 95% confidence interval 0.02-0.52, P = 0.004) and changes in energy intake while on the LPD (odds ratio 3.39, 95% confidence interval 1.00-11.43, P = 0.049). CONCLUSIONS: Risk factors for reduced SMI in patients with CKD on an LPD were malnutrition when initiating the LPD and reduced energy intake during its implementation. Clinicians should optimize nutritional status before initiation of an LPD and ensure adequate energy intake throughout treatment.

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PubMed2026

Maternal Intake of Vitamins A, C, D, and E During Pregnancy and Risk of Type 1 Diabetes in the Child: The Norwegian Mother, Father, and Child Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Dietary vitamins play a role in antioxidant defense and immunoregulation. However, prospective studies exploring the association between vitamin intakes during pregnancy and the child's risk of type 1 diabetes are limited. OBJECTIVES: This population-based prospective cohort study aimed to investigate the association between maternal intake of vitamins A, C, D, and E during pregnancy and risk of type 1 diabetes in children. METHODS: We included 85,244 children born between 2002 and 2009 in the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study, with follow-up until 31 December, 2021. Maternal intake of vitamins from food and dietary supplements from conception to the 22nd week of pregnancy was assessed with a validated food frequency questionnaire. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs), adjusting for background factors. RESULTS: During follow-up, 529 (0.6%) children were diagnosed with type 1 diabetes at a mean age of 9.4 y (standard deviation: 4.1 y) No associations were observed between maternal pregnancy intake of vitamin A [HR: 0.993; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.983, 1.003/100 μg], vitamin C (HR: 1.000; 95% CI: 0.993, 1.007/10 mg), vitamin D (HR: 0.991; 95% CI: 0.978, 1.003/1 μg), or vitamin E (HR: 0.999; 95% CI: 0.996, 1.004/10 mg) and risk of type 1 diabetes in the child when adjusted for potential confounders. The results were similar when intakes were assessed separately from food and dietary supplements and after restriction to children with human leukocyte antigen DQ2 and/or DQ8 risk haplotypes. CONCLUSIONS: This prospective cohort study does not support the hypothesis that higher maternal intake of vitamins A, C, D, and E during pregnancy would decrease risk of type 1 diabetes in the child. Corroborated with previous evidence, our findings support a general pattern of null associations.

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PubMed2026

Efficacy and Safety of Rivaroxaban in Patients with Peripheral Artery Disease: A GRADE-assessed Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Peripheral artery disease (PAD) is a common atherosclerotic disorder characterized by progressive arterial narrowing in the limbs. This study aims to determine the efficacy and safety of rivaroxaban, focusing on major cardiovascular events, limb outcomes, and bleeding risks. METHODS: PubMed, Cochrane, and EMBASE were searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and nonrandomized comparative studies that compared rivaroxaban, either alone or in combination with aspirin, to placebo or standard care such as antiplatelet therapy. Risk ratios and hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals were pooled using R v4.5.1 with an appropriate random-effects model applied. Subgroup analyses were performed according to rivaroxaban plus aspirin versus rivaroxaban alone. RESULTS: A total of 39,991 participants across 6 studies were included. Compared with control, use of rivaroxaban was linked to a significant reduction in composite efficacy outcomes (relative risk [RR] = 0.84, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.78-0.91, P < 0.001), risk of acute limb ischemia (RR = 0.65, 95% CI 0.55-0.78, P < 0.001), and thromboembolism (RR = 0.60, 95% CI 0.38-0.97, P = 0.037). Although rivaroxaban plus aspirin failed to show a significant reduction in the risk of amputation, rivaroxaban alone reported a significant risk reduction (RR = 0.50, 95% CI 0.30-0.85, P = 0.003). However, its use was associated with a significantly higher risk of major bleeding (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.54, 95% CI 1.38-1.72, P < 0.001) and International Society on Thrombosis and Hemostasis-defined bleeding (RR = 1.45, 95% CI 1.19-1.76, P < 0.001). No significant differences were observed for stroke, myocardial infarction, major adverse limb events, fatal bleeding, mortality, or cardiovascular mortality. CONCLUSION: Rivaroxaban-based therapy reduced the trial-defined composite efficacy outcome, acute limb ischemia, and thromboembolism in patients with PAD, but increased the risk of major bleeding. These findings support individualized use of rivaroxaban-based therapy in carefully selected patients, balancing ischemic and limb-protective benefits against bleeding risk.

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PubMed2026

Comparative safety of lipid-lowering drugs alone or in combination: insights from a systematic review and network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Although the safety profile of lipid-lowering therapies (LLTs) is known, there are no comprehensive comparative assessments. We aimed to compare the risk of muscle-related events, diabetes, liver dysfunction, and cognitive disorders among LLTs through a network meta-analysis. METHODS AND RESULTS: Databases were searched from inception to May 2025. Eligible studies included adult patients, using statins, ezetimibe, PCSK9 monoclonal antibodies (PCSK9mAbs), inclisiran, bempedoic acid, or their combinations as intervention, reporting the information about any of the selected adverse events, a total sample size of ≥200 subjects, and had ≥1 month of intervention. Pooled estimates were assessed by fixed effects model within a frequentist setting. Pooled relative risks (RR) and their 95% confidence interval were estimated. A total of 303,397 subjects from 153 RCTs were included. Bempedoic acid ranked the lowest risk of myalgia (vs PCSK9mAbs, RR 0.80 [0.69, 0.93]). PCSK9mAbs were associated with lower incidence of creatine kinase (CK) elevation, diabetes, and liver dysfunction comparing to statins (statins vs PCSK9mAbs, RR 1.44 [1.14, 1.81], RR 1.13 [1.05, 1.22], and RR 1.38 [1.17, 1.62], respectively). In terms of muscle-related events and cognitive disorders, no significant risk differences were found among treatments and their combinations. CONCLUSIONS: PCSK9mAbs appear to have a more favourable safety profile regarding the risk of CK elevation, diabetes, and liver dysfunction. Bempedoic acid seem to be a better choice for subjects with high risk of myalgia. This information can be valuable when selecting therapy for specific patient subgroups at higher risk of certain adverse events.

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PubMed2026

Externally validated risk prediction models for gestational diabetes mellitus: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Risk prediction models for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) offer potential for early identification and targeted prevention. External validation is crucial to assess model performance across diverse populations. Despite the availability of numerous GDM prediction models, limited evidence exists on their external validation frequency, methodological quality, and clinical applicability. This systematic review evaluated externally validated GDM prediction models, focusing on methodological rigor, reporting standards, and clinical relevance to inform future research and implementation. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Databases including Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, Emcare, and CINAHL were searched up to May 1, 2025. Studies reporting external validation of GDM risk prediction models were included. Two reviewers independently screened studies. Data were extracted using the CHARMS framework, and risk of bias and applicability were assessed using PROBAST+AI. The study protocol was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO; CRD420251125758). RESULTS: Twenty-six studies validated 33 models, with validation sample sizes ranging from 50 to 75 161. Over half used the IADPSG criteria to define GDM. Discrimination metrics were commonly reported, but calibration, overall performance, and clinical utility were often lacking. Meta-analysis was feasible for only four models: Teede et al., Nanda et al., Naylor et al., and Van Leeuwen et al., each showing fair discrimination. The Teede et al. model was the most widely validated, with 11 external validations across six continents and a pooled AUC of 0.72 (95% CI: 0.67-0.76). Despite fewer validations, the Nanda et al. model achieved the highest pooled discrimination (5 validations; pooled AUC 0.77, 95% CI: 0.74-0.80). The Naylor et al. and van Leeuwen et al. models also underwent meta-analysis, as sufficient external validation studies were available to support comparative performance assessment. Notably, 69.23% of studies had a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: While many models showed acceptable predictive performance, most validations were methodologically weak. Future studies should follow best-practice guidelines and promote scalable validation strategies, such as algorithm sharing, to enhance clinical utility.

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PubMed2026

Time-varying hazard rates reveal patterns of progression in HR+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer: Towards risk-adapted monitoring.

BACKGROUND: optimal imaging intervals for patients with hormone receptor-positive/HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer (MBC) remains undefined. Aim of this study was to analyze the temporal patterns of disease progression to identify high risk subgroups that may benefit from intensified monitoring. METHODS: we analyzed 149 hormone receptor-positive/HER2-negative MBC patients prospectively enrolled in the MAGNETIC.1 trial (NCT05814224) and treated with first line endocrine therapy. Hazard rates (HR) for disease progression were determined according to clinico-pathological and liquid biopsy features. RESULTS: in the overall population, two distinct progression-risk peaks emerged at 2-3 months (32.9/1000 person-months) and at 24 months (28.0/1000). Higher risk of progression was observed in lobular carcinoma (61.1) [HR 61.12 per 1000 person month (pm)], progesterone receptor-negative status (HR 39.07), fulvestrant-based treatment (HR 46.88), liver metastases (HR 59.00), and presence of ≥ 3 metastatic sites (HR 40.10). CONCLUSIONS: Hazard distribution in hormone receptor-positive/HER2-negative MBC is biphasic and modulated by readily available clinical variables. High-risk subgroups may benefit from intensified radiologic and liquid-biopsy surveillance during the first three months and around two years after treatment start.

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PubMed2026

Development and Validation of a Predictive Model for Identification of Cognitive Impairment Risk in Older Adults with Subjective Cognitive Decline：A Longitudinal Study.

BACKGROUND: Subjective cognitive decline (SCD) is a transitional state between objective cognitive impairment and cognitively intact mental status, providing a critical window for implementing preventive interventions to delay objective cognitive decline. AIMS: We aimed to develop a predictive model for SCD progression in older adults with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). This model will facilitate the identification of risk factors and establishment of targeted interventions for community-based SCD management. METHODS: Data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) was utilized in this study, extracting 18 indicators. Potential predictors selected through univariate Cox regression and LASSO regression analyses were sequentially incorporated into a multivariable Cox regression model. A nomogram was constructed to establish a predictive model. Model validation encompassed Area Under Curve (AUC) metrics for discriminative capacity, complemented by quantitative assessments using calibration curve analysis for precision verification and decision curve analysis (DCA) for clinical utility evaluation. RESULTS: A total of 1099 older adults with SCD were included in the final analysis, of whom 114 (10.3%) developed MCI. Multivariable Cox regression identified residence, marital status, educational level, social participation, gait speed, and baseline cognitive function. The model demonstrated time-dependent AUC values of 0.885, 0.830, 0.839, and 0.836 in the training set when evaluating discriminative capacity at 2-, 4-, 7-, and 9-year, respectively. The predictive model showed excellent predictive ability according to AUC, calibration curve, and DCA. CONCLUSIONS: A predictive model was created to estimate the risk of developing MCI in older individuals with SCD, offering clinician-actionable intervention benchmarks for preventive care.

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PubMed2026

A standardised risk-stratified approach to the urological management of children with spina bifida.

BACKGROUND: The establishment of a multidisciplinary spina bifida (SB) clinic in 2006 resulted in a review of the literature and an audit of renal outcomes based on then management practices. The audit showed 17% new onset renal scarring over a mean 5.8-year follow-up period. This prompted the development of a local protocol based on risk stratification combining serial ultrasound and non-invasive bladder function assessments, with invasive urodynamic studies reserved for high-risk patients. OBJECTIVE: This study sought to assess the impact of a risk stratified protocol on renal scarring and continence outcomes in children with SB. METHODS: A single centre, retrospective case review of SB patients treated after the introduction of the protocol was conducted. Electronic medical records were used to access patient demographics, continence status and the results of investigations and adherence to the local management protocol. Management that deviated from the protocol was deemed non-adherence. Renal scarring was determined by the presence of scarring on DMSA renogram. Continence was defined as having no urinary incontinence or no more than a single episode of incontinence in a month in patients above the age of 5. For statistical analysis, descriptive statistics in percentages were used, for comparisons of dichotomous variables the Students t-test was performed and to calculate statistical significance a Fisher exact test was done. RESULTS: 167 SB patients were identified with a mean follow up of 56 months. 141 patients were considered adherent to the protocol, 26 were non-adherent. In the protocol adherent group 5 patients (3.5%) developed renal scarring compared with 6 patients (23%) managed out of protocol (p = 0.002). Overall, 49/108 patients were continent either self-voiding 8/108 (7%), with urethral CIC 19/108 (20%) and 22/108 (45%) of them required bladder augmentation. Urinary continence improved with age with 26% continence at age 10, 64% continence by age 15 and 90% continent above 15 years of age. CONCLUSION: A management approach based on risk stratification resulted in incidence of renal scarring that is better than historical controls and comparable to published outcomes. Social continence was achieved in 90% of SB patients by 15 years of age. Hostile bladder changes can be readily identified using non-invasive assessment methods. An expectant treatment approach based on risk stratification is associated with good long term renal outcome and utilises invasive urodynamic resources for SB patients at high risk of renal injury or to address urinary continence in the older child.

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PubMed2026

High-Flow Nasal Oxygen and the Risk of Gastric Insufflation: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Supplemented by Narrative Synthesis.

High-flow nasal oxygen (HFNO) generates positive airway pressure, raising concerns about gastric insufflation and aspiration risk. Although most studies report minimal or no gastric distension, some suggest significant changes. This systematic review and meta-analysis applied the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) framework to evaluate the effect of HFNO on gastric insufflation and related markers across clinical settings. We searched Medline, Embase, Emcare, and CINAHL through August 2025 for studies reporting qualitative or quantitative markers of gastric insufflation during HFNO use, including comet-tail artifacts, antral cross-sectional area, and gastric volume. Eligible designs included randomized trials, observational and volunteer studies, and case reports. Methodological quality was evaluated using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool, and certainty of evidence was rated with GRADE. Meta-analysis was performed for outcomes reported in two or more studies. Six randomized trials, five observational studies, two volunteer studies, one case series, and two case reports were included. Observational studies primarily assessed outcomes before and after HFNO intervention. Pooled analysis of four randomized controlled trials (RCTs; n = 375) showed HFNO significantly reduced gastric insufflation compared with face-mask ventilation during elective peri-intubation (risk ratios [RR] = 0.32; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.19-0.52; P < .00001; I 2 = 0%), rated moderate-certainty. For antral cross-sectional area, pooled analysis of three RCTs (n = 318) found no significant difference between HFNO and face-mask ventilation (MD -0.33 cm 2 ; 95% CI, -0.72 to 0.05; P = .09; I 2 = 74%), rated moderate-certainty. Observational studies assessing pre- and post-HFNO changes showed no significant increase in antral cross-sectional area (MD 0.08 cm 2 ; 95% CI, -0.29 to 0.45; P = .67; I 2 = 0%) and no significant change in gastric liquid volume (MD -0.01 ml/kg; 95% CI, -0.07 to 0.06; P = .80; I 2 = 0%), both rated low certainty. Nonpooled data suggested possible increases in critically ill patients, but the evidence was of very low certainty. A single study assessing microaspiration found HFNO reduced gastroesophageal reflux and prevented microaspiration compared with face-mask ventilation. No clinically significant aspiration events were reported across studies. Moderate-certainty evidence supports HFNO as safe regarding gastric insufflation and antral cross-sectional area in most elective and procedural contexts. Low-certainty evidence suggests no increase in gastric volume. Caution is warranted due to limited, low-to-very-low-certainty evidence at higher flow rates and among critically ill patients. Larger multicenter trials and robust observational studies are necessary to confirm safety in these settings.

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PubMed2026

Association of lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 with recurrence risk and its predictive value in large artery atherosclerotic stroke.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association of lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) with large artery atherosclerotic (LAA) stroke and its predictive value for recurrence. METHODS: We consecutively enrolled 412 acute LAA stroke patients. Using a cutoff of 200 ng/mL, patients were divided into high and low Lp-PLA2 groups, and into recurrence and non‑recurrence groups based on 1‑year follow‑up. Baseline characteristics, lipid profiles, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores, and vascular stenosis degree were compared. Binary logistic regression and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis were used to identify independent risk factors and evaluate predictive value. RESULTS: The high Lp-PLA2 group had significantly higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), small dense low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (sdLDL-C), prevalence of severe stenosis (≥70%), and proportion of NIHSS > 15 (all P < 0.05). The recurrence group showed elevated Lp-PLA2, higher LDL‑C and sdLDL-C, more severe neurological deficits, and more severe stenosis (all P < 0.001). Multivariable regression identified elevated Lp-PLA2 (per 10 ng/mL: OR = 1.139, 95% CI: 1.089-1.191), moderate (OR = 3.145) and severe (OR = 11.663) neurological deficits, and severe stenosis (OR = 9.390) as independent risk factors for recurrence (all P < 0.05). The Area Under the Curve (AUC) of Lp-PLA2 was 0.75 (95% CI: 0.69-0.82), with an optimal cutoff of 208.95 ng/mL. CONCLUSION: Elevated Lp-PLA2 is associated with adverse lipid profiles, more severe neurological deficits, and greater vascular stenosis in LAA stroke patients, and independently predicts 1‑year recurrence. Lp-PLA2 shows moderate predictive value, supporting its potential for risk stratification.

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PubMed2026

Risk Factors and Predictive Model for Postoperative High Myopia in Children Undergoing Congenital Cataract Surgery With Intraocular Lens Implantation.

PURPOSE: To identify risk factors associated with the development of high myopia following congenital cataract surgery and to establish a robust predictive model. DESIGN: Retrospective clinical cohort study. SUBJECTS: This retrospective study included 106 pediatric patients who underwent congenital cataract surgery with primary IOL implantation (mean follow-up 8.19 years). The model was externally validated in an independent cohort of 72 patients with a mean follow-up of 7.83 years. METHODS: Preoperative and postoperative ocular biometric parameters were collected. Risk factors for postoperative high myopia were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression, which served as the basis for model construction. The predictive performance of the model was rigorously evaluated for discrimination and calibration. Discriminative ability was quantified using Harrell's C-index and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Model calibration was assessed via calibration plots by comparing predicted probabilities with actual observed outcomes. Internal validation was performed using a bootstrapping method (500 iterations) to ensure model stability and adjust for potential overfitting. RESULTS: An initial postoperative refraction of <+0.75D, and a higher IOL Power to Axial length Ratio (IOL/AL ratio) were identified as significant risk factors for the development of postoperative high myopia. Shorter preoperative axial length was associated with a greater magnitude of postoperative myopic shift. The predictive model demonstrated robust performance, achieving a C-index of 0.711 (internal validation C-index: 0.713). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values for predicting high myopia at 5 and 10 years were 0.858 and 0.745, respectively. Furthermore, calibration curves demonstrated excellent agreement between the predicted and observed outcomes throughout the follow-up period. In external validation, the model achieved a C-index of 0.825, 5-year AUC of 0.833, and 10-year AUC of 0.713. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis established that initial postoperative refraction <+0.75D, and an elevated IOL/AL ratio are key determinants of high myopia risk following surgery. Shorter preoperative axial length was associated with a greater magnitude of postoperative myopic shift. This predictive framework provides clinicians with a practical tool to optimize preoperative IOL selection and identify high-risk infants who require vigilant myopia prevention and balanced amblyopia management.

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PubMed2026

"Abrazos, no Balazos": Intensity of Risk for Exposure to Violence and Armed Conflict Trajectories for Adolescents and Young Adults in México 2018-2024.

PURPOSE: "Abrazos, no balazos" (Hugs, not gunshots) is the approach to violence used by the Federal Mexican government from 2018 to 2024. This study identifies distinct conceptually useful latent class growth trajectories in the annual intensity of risk for exposure to events and fatalities from violence against civilians and battles for adolescents and young adults (AYAs) in México from 2018 to 2024. METHODS: Data are from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project. Latent class growth analyses were conducted with four longitudinal dependent variables assessed in seven sequential years (2018-2024). RESULTS: In most of the Mexican states, AYAs experienced low intensity-flat trajectories (p >.096) in the annual intensity of risk for exposure to events and fatalities from violence against civilians and battles. AYAs who lived in states with extremely, markedly, or moderately elevated 2018 intensities of risk for exposure to violence experienced decreasing trajectories (p =.000). One latent class with a mildly elevated-increasing trajectory (p =.000) in the annual intensity of risk for exposure to violence was identified for each of the four longitudinal dependent variables. DISCUSSION: During the time that the Federal Mexican government used the "Abrazos, no balazos" approach, AYAs in the majority of the states in México had intensity of risk for exposure to violence and armed conflict trajectories that were consistent with the goals of primary and secondary violence prevention. Violence prevention efforts should be augmented in states with unfavorable trajectories.

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PubMed2026

Insights from expert panels on the EU clinical evaluation consultation procedure.

BACKGROUND: The Clinical Evaluation Consultation Procedure (CECP) under the EU Medical Device Regulation aims to strengthen and harmonize the assessment of high-risk medical devices. This review summarizes early insights from expert panels to support improved clinical evaluation practices. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This review analyses 34 expert panel opinions derived from 281 CECP submissions between April 2021 and December 2025. Statements from opinions were systematically extracted, de-duplicated, and grouped into thematic categories, with independent review and validation. The analysis focuses on common challenges found during the consultation procedure of the expert panels on the content of the clinical assessment in relation to clinical evidence, benefit-risk assessment, intended purpose alignment, and post-market clinical follow-up planning. RESULTS: Expert panel findings highlight recurrent issues in the sufficiency, consistency, and transparency of clinical evidence, underscoring the need for improved standardization and clearer guidance. CONCLUSIONS: Strengthening documentation quality and alignment across stakeholders will enhance the robustness, efficiency, and predictability of conformity assessments for high-risk medical devices.

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PubMed2026

Risk factors for bleeding after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: ERCP is associated with adverse events, including bleeding, which occurs in up to 1.3% of cases. This meta-analysis aims to identify and quantify risk factors associated with post-ERCP bleeding. METHODS: A comprehensive literature search of electronic databases was conducted from inception to January 10, 2025. Studies were eligible if they used multivariate analysis to identify predictors of post-ERCP bleeding. Risk factors reported in at least 2 studies were pooled using a random-effects model to calculate odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs. A further subgroup analysis was performed, including risk factors for postsphincterotomy bleeding and postendoscopic papillectomy bleeding. RESULTS: Twenty-seven studies (4 prospective and 23 retrospective studies) comprising 149,870 patients were included, of whom 1865 experienced post-ERCP bleeding. Twenty potential risk factors were analyzed. The meta-analysis identified several factors significantly associated with increased odds of post-ERCP bleeding in the pooled adjusted analysis, including male gender (OR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.05-1.46), anticoagulation therapy (OR, 2.75; 95% CI, 1.66-4.56), cirrhosis (OR, 2.54; 95% CI, 1.76-3.65), hemodialysis (OR, 5.82; 95% CI, 3.32-10.18), coagulopathy (OR, 11.01; 95% CI, 2.50-48.40), endoscopic sphincterotomy (EST) (OR, 3.19; 95% CI, 1.69-6.01), precut sphincterotomy (OR, 2.24; 95% CI, 1.52-3.30), and intraoperative bleeding (OR, 2.57; 95% CI, 1.80-3.66). Several factors in the pooled adjusted analysis were not found to be significantly associated with higher odds of post-ERCP bleeding, including high body mass index (BMI), nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) use, antiplatelet therapy, thrombocytopenia, common bile duct stones, cholangitis, endoscopic papillary balloon dilatation, and covered self-expandable metal stent insertion. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis identified that the anticoagulation therapy, cirrhosis, hemodialysis, coagulation disorder, EST, precut sphincterotomy, and male gender are associated with increased odds of post-ERCP bleeding in the pooled adjusted analysis. Conversely, age, high BMI, cholangitis, choledocholithiasis, pancreatic duct stones, needle-knife sphincterotomy, NSAID use, and antiplatelet therapy were not significantly associated with higher odds of post-ERCP bleeding in the pooled adjusted analysis. Incorporating our results into a prediction model may assist in identifying patients at increased risk, optimizing informed consent, and guiding prevention and management strategies for post-ERCP bleeding.

Humans↗