"Abrazos, no Balazos": Intensity of Risk for Exposure to Violence and Armed Conflict Trajectories for Adolescents and Young Adults in México 2018-2024.

Abstract

PURPOSE: "Abrazos, no balazos" (Hugs, not gunshots) is the approach to violence used by the Federal Mexican government from 2018 to 2024. This study identifies distinct conceptually useful latent class growth trajectories in the annual intensity of risk for exposure to events and fatalities from violence against civilians and battles for adolescents and young adults (AYAs) in México from 2018 to 2024. METHODS: Data are from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project. Latent class growth analyses were conducted with four longitudinal dependent variables assessed in seven sequential years (2018-2024). RESULTS: In most of the Mexican states, AYAs experienced low intensity-flat trajectories (p >.096) in the annual intensity of risk for exposure to events and fatalities from violence against civilians and battles. AYAs who lived in states with extremely, markedly, or moderately elevated 2018 intensities of risk for exposure to violence experienced decreasing trajectories (p =.000). One latent class with a mildly elevated-increasing trajectory (p =.000) in the annual intensity of risk for exposure to violence was identified for each of the four longitudinal dependent variables. DISCUSSION: During the time that the Federal Mexican government used the "Abrazos, no balazos" approach, AYAs in the majority of the states in México had intensity of risk for exposure to violence and armed conflict trajectories that were consistent with the goals of primary and secondary violence prevention. Violence prevention efforts should be augmented in states with unfavorable trajectories.