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PubMed2026

Machine learning-based prediction of unplanned readmission and construction of an online calculator for elderly patients with mild ischemic stroke.

OBJECTIVE: To screen for independent risk factors for unplanned readmission in elderly patients with mild ischemic stroke, and to construct and validate an online risk prediction calculator based on an interpretable machine learning model, thereby providing a promising practical tool for accurate clinical assessment of 30‑day all‑cause unplanned readmission risk in this population. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted, including 1050 patients aged ≥ 60 years with mild ischemic stroke admitted between August 2023 and September 2024. Participants were randomly divided into a training set (840 cases) and a test set (210 cases) at a ratio of 8:2. Risk factors were screened by univariate analysis and multivariable Logistic regression. Four machine learning models, namely LightGBM, XGBoost, Random Forest, and K‑Nearest Neighbors (KNN), were developed and their performance was evaluated using AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity as metrics. The SHAP framework was used for interpretability analysis, and an online calculator was subsequently developed based on the optimal model. RESULTS: Univariate analysis showed significant differences (P < 0.05) in 13 factors including age, smoking, AIP, TyG index, HALP score, etc. Multivariable Logistic regression identified age (OR = 9.752), smoking (OR = 5.171), AIP (OR = 6.691), TyG index (OR = 4.393), HALP score (OR = 2.831), and ≥ 2 comorbidities (OR = 3.664) as independent risk factors. All four machine learning models demonstrated good predictive performance. Based on a comprehensive evaluation of multiple metrics and computational efficiency, the LightGBM model exhibited the best predictive performance (AUC = 0.884, accuracy = 0.829, sensitivity = 0.812, specificity = 0.875). SHAP analysis showed that age, AIP, TyG index, smoking, and HALP score were key predictors. An online calculator developed based on this model enables individualized risk predictions. CONCLUSION: Key risk factors associated with 30‑day unplanned readmission in elderly patients with mild ischemic stroke were identified. The LightGBM model demonstrated high predictive accuracy, and together with the interpretability analysis and online calculator, offers a practical tool to support clinical risk assessment. However, this tool requires future external validation.

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PubMed2026

Risk prediction models for blood transfusion in patients undergoing total hip and knee arthroplasty: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To systematically review and evaluate published risk prediction models for perioperative blood transfusion in patients undergoing total hip or knee arthroplasty (THA/TKA). METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library, and Embase from inception to May 31, 2025. Two researchers independently screened the literature, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias and applicability using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values were pooled via a meta-analysis using Stata 18.0. RESULTS: d Fourteen studies containing 36 prediction models were included. The incidence of blood transfusion among THA/TKA patients ranged from 3.2% to 30.8%. Preoperative hemoglobin (Hb) level, tranexamic acid (TXA) use, operative duration, intraoperative blood loss, and age were the most frequently incorporated predictors. Model sensitivity ranged from 58% to 94.5%, and specificity ranged from 71.3% to 94%. Meta-analysis showed that the pooled AUC value of the 13 validated models was 0.87 (95% CI: 0.85-0.90), suggesting good discriminatory performance. All models were rated as having a high risk of bias. The applicability of four studies was rated as unclear. CONCLUSION: Although the included studies demonstrated promising discriminative ability of prediction models for blood transfusion in THA/TKA, all were assessed as having a high risk of bias using the PROBAST tool. Therefore, future research should prioritize the development of models with larger sample sizes, rigorous study designs, and multicenter external validation.

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PubMed2026

Gene-environment interaction between perinatal oxytocin exposure and Pten mutation shapes epigenetic reprogramming of oxytocin signaling and behavior in mice.

Synthetic oxytocin (Pitocin) is the most commonly used pharmacologic agent for induction and augmentation of labor. Beyond its uterotonic effects, oxytocin plays a critical role in neurodevelopment and social behavior. Dysregulated oxytocin signaling has been implicated in autism spectrum disorder (ASD), raising concern that perinatal exposure to exogenous oxytocin may have lasting neurodevelopmental consequences. This study aimed to determine whether offspring harboring a genetic predisposition for ASD are differentially impacted by perinatal oxytocin exposures, with a focus on long-term oxytocin signaling and autism-like behavior. Pregnant mice carrying offspring with heterozygous mutations in phosphatase and tensin homolog deleted on chromosome ten (Pten), a well-established monogenic risk factor for ASD, received continuous oxytocin versus phosphate-buffered saline (PBS) control via micro-osmotic pumps during late gestation. Wild-type (WT) offspring exposed to each treatment served as a secondary control. Adult offspring were assessed for oxytocin receptor (Oxtr) methylation in the frontal cortex and hippocampus, oxytocin expression in the hypothalamus, serum oxytocin levels, and were subject to a battery of social and anxiety-related behavior tests. Perinatal oxytocin exposure produced genotype-dependent effects in offspring. Epigenetic analyses revealed bidirectional remodeling of Oxtr methylation in the frontal cortex and hippocampus, with increased exon 1 methylation in WT mice and decreased methylation in Pten-mutant mice, resulting in significant genotype-treatment interactions. Hypothalamic oxytocin expression increased following treatment regardless of genotype, though baseline levels were higher in Pten-mutant mice. Neither oxytocin treatment nor genotype impacted long-term serum oxytocin levels. Behavioral outcomes were modest but context-specific: repetitive behaviors and cognition performance were unchanged, but oxytocin-treated Pten-mutant mice exhibited increased anxiety-like behavior alongside improved social memory. In contrast, oxytocin-treated WT mice showed reduced social novelty preference. Exploratory analyses suggested potential sex-dependent trends. Our findings support a model in which genetic susceptibility shapes the epigenetic encoding of early-life hormonal signals, thereby recalibrating oxytocin system function and downstream behavioral outcomes. Together, these data highlight the context-dependent effects of perinatal oxytocin exposure and argue against uniformly beneficial or detrimental effects, emphasizing the importance of gene-environment interactions in neurodevelopmental trajectories.

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PubMed2026

Assessment of the Potential of Different Anthropometric Indices in Predicting the Risk of Diabetes and Associated Co-morbidities.

Diabetes, a chronic disorder, is showing a rapidly increasing trend globally. India holds the second position in the global diabetes epidemic. The present investigation is an assessment of different anthropometric measurements and their association with type 2 diabetes to determine their diagnostic potential for diabetes as well as its co-morbidities. In this cross-sectional study, we have measured anthropometric parameters and blood biomarkers in subjects with diabetes. We have presented the comparisons of cost- and time-effective anthropometric variable with costly and time-dependent biochemical variables in control and diabetic groups (n = 233/group). Correlations between anthropometric variables and biochemical measurements, as well as the diagnostic utility of anthropometric variables for diabetes, were evaluated. The diagnostic utility of anthropometric variables for diabetes was assessed through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Neck circumference, sagittal abdominal diameter (SAD), skinfold thickness, and body roundness index (BRI) displayed high specificity and diagnostic utility for diabetes, emphasizing their potential in predicting diabetes and the further development of metabolic syndrome. The study highlights the importance of cost- and time-effective anthropometric assessments in diabetes risk evaluation and calls for further research to elucidate this intricate relationship and develop personalized management strategies.

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PubMed2026

A Dynamic Nomogram to Predict Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Fatty Liver Disease in Patients with Metabolic Syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) involves multiple metabolic disorders. This study aimed to identify high-risk populations for metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) in patients with MetS and to establish a dynamic predictive nomogram. METHODS: A total of 627 patients with MetS from six regions in Zhejiang Province were enrolled and categorized into MAFLD and non-MAFLD groups, then randomly assigned to training and validation sets at a ratio of 7:3. Independent predictors of MAFLD were identified using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and multivariable logistic regression analyses. These predictors were then used to construct a dynamic nomogram. RESULTS: A total of 627 patients with MetS were included in the final analysis, of whom 77.0% (483/627) were diagnosed with MAFLD. Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), total cholesterol (TC), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), MetS-defined dysglycemia, and education level as independent risk factors for MAFLD. MetS-defined dysglycemia showed the highest odds ratio (OR) for MAFLD development [OR = 1.87, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07-3.29]. Although the number of MetS components and the metabolic syndrome score were significantly associated with MAFLD in univariate analysis, they were not independently associated with MAFLD in the multivariate model. A dynamic nomogram for predicting MAFLD risk in patients with MetS was developed and internally validated. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.834 (95% CI: 0.787-0.880) in the training set and 0.839 (95% CI: 0.771-0.899) in the validation set, indicating strong predictive performance. Bootstrap internal validation demonstrated good agreement between predicted and observed outcomes in calibration curves. Decision curve analysis further indicated favorable clinical applicability of the nomogram. CONCLUSION: BMI, WC, TC, ALT, MetS-defined dysglycemia, and education level are independent risk factors for MAFLD. A dynamic nomogram for predicting MAFLD risk in patients with MetS was successfully developed and validated.

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PubMed2026

An individualized nomogram for predicting progression-free survival in systemic anaplastic large cell lymphoma: a multicenter, retrospective, and internally validated study.

OBJECTIVES: To develop an individualized nomogram for predicting disease progression risk in systemic anaplastic large cell lymphoma (sALCL). METHODS: Independent predictors of progression-free survival (PFS) were identified using Cox regression in a multicenter retrospective cohort of 109 sALCL patients (2010-2022). These were incorporated into a three-factor nomogram, evaluated via bootstrapped internal validation (1000 resamples), ROC analysis, C-index, decision curve analysis (DCA), and clinical impact curve (CIC). RESULTS: A total of 29 PFS events occurred during a median follow-up of 31 months. Multivariable modelling selected serum β2-microglobulin elevation, extranodal disease, and front-line chemotherapy choice (CHOP versus CHOPE or BV+CHP) as autonomous progression drivers. Upon internal bootstrap validation, the nomogram yielded strong prognostic accuracy, achieving AUCs of 0.81, 0.85 and 0.87 for 1-, 3- and 5-year progression-free survival, alongside a corrected C-index of 0.779 (95% CI: 0.699 - 0.861). Calibration plots showed close agreement between predicted and observed outcomes, while DCA confirmed superior net clinical benefit versus conventional IPI or Ann Arbor stratification across multiple decision thresholds. CONCLUSION: This first sALCL-specific nomogram integrates clinical and treatment variables to provide personalized PFS risk estimation. While internally validated, this exploratory, observation-based tool requires external validation and recalibration in prospective cohorts before clinical implementation.

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PubMed2026

Could the preoperative urethral curve be used to predict immediate urinary continence following Retzius-sparing robot-assisted radical prostatectomy? A retrospective multi-center study.

PURPOSE: Immediate urinary continence (UC) recovery following Retzius-sparing robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RS-RARP) remains highly variable, highlighting the need for reliable preoperative prediction. We aimed to develop and validate models to identify patients likely to achieve immediate UC recovery following RS-RARP. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 580 prostate cancer patients who underwent RS-RARP from four medical centers were assigned to a training set (n=348), an internal validation set (n=103) and an external validation set (n=129). Independent predictors were identified through univariate analysis and LASSO regression. A nomogram was constructed using multivariate logistic regression. Its performance was evaluated with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: Immediate UC recovery was observed in 84.5% (294/348) of patients in the training cohort, 80.6% (83/103) in the internal validation cohort, and 81.4% (105/129) in the external validation cohort, respectively. Multivariate analysis identified membranous urethral length (MUL) (OR=1.23, P=0.029) and urethral curvature (OR=2.84, P<0.001) as independent predictors, while prostate volume (PV) (OR=0.84, P <0.001) as a protective factor. The nomogram integrating MUL, PV, and urethral curvature demonstrated superior predictive accuracy, with an AUC of 0.87 (95% CI, 0.83-0.91) in the training cohort. The bootstrap-corrected calibration slope was 0.96, and the Brier score was 0.08. Calibration curves and decision curve analysis confirmed the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of the nomogram. CONCLUSIONS: Our study introduces a novel quantitative method for assessing urethral curvature. The mpMRI-based model, integrating urethral curvature and prostate spatial configuration, offers enhanced predictive accuracy for postoperative immediate UC recovery.

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PubMed2026

Diagnostic and Predictive Value of Circulating and Exosomal microRNAs in Ferroptosis-Associated Neurological Conditions: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Circulating microRNAs (miRNAs) have emerged as potential non-invasive markers for intracranial pathology, yet their diagnostic accuracy and relationship with ferroptosis-mediated neuronal damage remain poorly defined. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic and predictive potential of circulating and exosomal miRNAs across ferroptosis-associated neurological conditions and to explore their associations with ferroptosis-related pathways. Following PRISMA-DTA guidelines, a systematic literature search was conducted across PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane, and ScienceDirect, identifying 205 records. After screening for human clinical cohort validation, 7 studies were included in the qualitative synthesis and 5 in the quantitative meta-analysis. Pooled Area-under-the-Curve (AUC) was calculated using a random-effects inverse-variance model, while prognostic correlation coefficients (r) were synthesized using Fisher's Z-transformation. Methodological quality was assessed via QUADAS-2. Analysis of 7 clinical cohorts provided heterogeneous evidence on the diagnostic and prognostic potential of miRNAs. Random-effects pooling of the two eligible diagnostic AUC estimates yielded an exploratory pooled AUC of 0.87 (95% CI, 0.79-0.94; I2 .90%). Prognostic synthesis of Group 2 identified an exploratory association between miRNA levels and clinical severity scales (exploratory pooled correlation coefficient of 0.67 (95% CI: 0.56-0.76; I2 .714.4%). Selected miRNAs were mapped to ferroptosis-associated regulators, including SLC7A11, ABCB8, and SLC40A1. Exosomal miRNAs hold potential to indicate disease-associated molecular information, although comparative clinical evidence remains yet to be explored. Circulating and exosomal miRNAs show promising diagnostic and prognostic potential across selected neurological conditions. These findings highlight a potential mechanistic association between miRNA expression and ferroptosis-mediated neuronal injury.

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PubMed2026

Meta-PseU: A meta-classifier for robust prediction of RNA pseudouridine modification sites from long sequences.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Pseudouridine (Ψ) represents one of the most abundant and conserved RNA modifications. Ψ provides an additional hydrogen-bond donor that enhances RNA structural stability and modulates translation. It participates in diverse biological processes, including RNA-protein interactions, splicing, translational control, and stress responses. Aberrant pseudouridylation is implicated in cancer, neurodegenerative disorders, and autoimmune diseases. Despite its biological importance, experimental identification of Ψ sites remains time-consuming and costly, limiting the feasibility of transcriptome-wide profiling. Computational approaches have therefore become essential complements to experimental techniques. However, state-of-the-art machine-learning and deep-learning predictors often suffer from limited generalizability due to small training datasets. To overcome these issues, we aim at constructing new long-sequence datasets and developing a novel Ψ site predictor. METHODS: New long-sequence datasets were constructed as benchmarks for RNA Ψ-site prediction. The Ψ modification sites in RMBase 3.0 were mapped to the reference genomes across three species of human, mouse, and yeast, and the RNA sequences with a length of 201 were generated by extending the upstream and downstream from the mapped, central sites. To eliminate sequence redundancy, the sequences were clustered using CD-HIT with a 70% sequence identity threshold. We developed Meta-PseU, a logistic regression-based meta-classifier that considered 118 machine learning and deep learning classifiers. The datasets and programs are freely accessible at https://github.com/kuratahiroyuki/MetaPseU. RESULTS: By optimizing model configuration, we proposed the Meta-PseU model stacking 32 machine learning and deep learning classifiers out of 118 classifiers. Meta-PseU substantially improved model generalizability, overcoming a key limitation of existing approaches. It greatly outperformed state-of-the-art predictors and achieved increasing accuracy with increasing sequence length. CONCLUSIONS: Long-sequence datasets were newly constructed as benchmarks for RNA Ψ-site prediction. Meta-PseU offers a new framework for robust Ψ-site identification by using long sequences.

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PubMed2026

Novel non-contrast computed tomography parameters for predicting spontaneous stone passage and surgical requirement in ureteral stones: The role of ureteral wall thickness and dilatation ratio.

We investigated the predictive value of standard non-contrast computed tomography (NCCT) measurements, the ureteral dilatation ratio (DDR) and intraluminal urine stasis markers, for spontaneous stone passage (SSP) versus surgical intervention in patients with ureteral stones. We also evaluated ureteral wall thickness (UWT) as a practical clinical marker. This retrospective study included 461 patients diagnosed with ureteral stones via NCCT. Patients were categorised into two groups based on clinical outcomes: the spontaneous passage group (MET; n = 229) and the endoscopic surgery group (URS; n = 232). Stone volume, stone density (HU), UWT, DDR and intraluminal urine attenuation values were measured for all patients. Independent risk factors were identified using a multivariate logistic regression model and clinical cut-off values were determined via ROC curve analysis. Stone volume, density, UWT and hydronephrosis grade were all significantly higher in the URS group. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that increased UWT (OR: 5.03, 95% CI: 3.66-6.90; p < 0.001) was the strongest independent predictor of surgery. Higher DDR (OR: 1.88; p = 0.003), advanced hydronephrosis, stone volume, and density also increased surgical risk. A UWT cut-off ≥ 2.97 mm predicted surgery with 84.8% sensitivity and 84.3% specificity (AUC: 0.872). A DDR cut-off > 1.79 yielded 81.7% specificity and 40.4% sensitivity. UWT weakly correlated with stone volume (r = 0.145), indicating wall thickening reflects an inflammatory response rather than a mere mechanical consequence. UWT is a superior predictor of SSP failure, supported by increased DDR as a highly specific complementary risk factor. These parameters could help clinicians to identify patients who would benefit from early surgical counselling and intervention rather than prolonged conservative management.

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PubMed2026

Executive function in alcohol use disorder with low psychiatric comorbidity: Comparison with a non-clinical sample and predictive value for treatment outcome.

BACKGROUND: Executive functions (EF) encompass abilities such as planning, decision-making, and inhibitory control, critical for learning, establishing and maintaining behavioral change. The association between alcohol use disorder (AUD) and impairments in EF are well established. However, prior research is dominated by studies on convenience samples including individuals with severe AUD with high levels of psychiatric comorbidity, which limits generalizability. The present study therefore aimed to investigate the degree of impairment and predictive ability of EF, on alcohol consumption, among individuals with moderate AUD with low levels of psychiatric comorbidity. METHODS: Adults with moderate AUD (n = 147) were recruited at three specialized addiction outpatient clinics in Stockholm, to a randomized controlled trial investigating the efficacy of two psychological treatments. Participants underwent neuropsychological testing before treatment. Eight tests from the CANTAB® battery were administered at baseline, assessing mental flexibility, sustained attention, visuospatial working memory, response inhibition, and delay discounting. Assessments of alcohol use and related symptoms were conducted at baseline, the 12- and 26-weeks follow-up. A non-clinical reference sample (n = 72) completed corresponding CANTAB® tests. The two groups were compared regarding EF using descriptive statistics and t-tests, and the predictive value of EF for reduction in alcohol consumption, was investigated using multiple regression models. RESULTS: Individuals with AUD did not perform worse on any of the tests on executive function (CANTAB®) as compared to the non-clinical reference sample. Measures of EF were not significant predictors for reduction in alcohol use for the 12-week, or the 26-week follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: EFs were not impaired and were not a clinically relevant predictor of treatment outcomes in this population with AUD. Future research on EF as a predictor in AUD treatment, needs to corroborate the present findings, and include other populations, e.g., with different socio-economic backgrounds and by including other methodologies for measuring EF.

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PubMed2026

Machine learning-ready genomic biomarkers: ATF3 polymorphisms predict postoperative analgesic demand through AI-compatible phenotyping.

PURPOSE: To determine whether ATF3 polymorphisms can serve as genetic biomarkers for machine learning-based precision analgesia by establishing a genotype-phenotype association suitable for predictive modeling of postoperative opioid requirements. METHODS: In a prospective cohort of 167 adults undergoing abdominal surgery, ATF3 SNPs rs3122721 and rs3125293 were genotyped. A structured dataset architecture was developed to represent genetic profiles as input features for supervised learning models, enabling translational analysis of genotype‑dependent opioid consumption over 72 h. RESULTS: Patients with homozygous genotypes of the ATF3 SNPs had significantly higher opioid requirements than non‑carriers, despite reporting similar subjective pain scores. This consistent genotype‑dependent pattern provided a clinically relevant phenotype suitable for integration into predictive algorithms. CONCLUSION: ATF3 genotyping offers a promising biomarker for computationally informed precision analgesia. By linking genomic variability to clinically meaningful outcomes within a structured clinical and genomic framework, this approach supports the future development of risk-stratified clinical decision-support systems to optimize postoperative pain management.Trial registration ChiCTR1900021991, registered 30 April 2019. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at https://doi.org/10.1007/s13755-026-00480-9.

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PubMed2026

Role of Polygenic Risk Scores in Predicting Cognitive Functioning after Mild Traumatic Brain Injury: A TRACK-TBI Study.

Patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) and Glasgow Coma Scale scores of 13-15 (historically called mild TBI [mTBI]) commonly experience changes in cognitive functioning, including processing speed, memory, and executive functioning. In a prospective sample (N = 523) of individuals of European descent who had been treated in a U.S. level 1 trauma center for mTBI, we examined the prognostic value of four polygenic risk scores (PRS) for cognitive outcomes at 6-months postinjury. To estimate the impact of mTBI on cognition, primary cognitive outcomes were scaled as z-scores reflecting changes in performance relative to predicted preinjury performance. The PRS examined were previously developed and validated to predict cognition-related outcomes of educational attainment (Education-PRS), intelligence (Intelligence-PRS), and Alzheimer's disease (AD-mild traumatic brain injury (APOE)-PRS and AD + APOE-PRS). Both the Education-PRS and Intelligence-PRS displayed bivariate associations with all four cognitive outcomes (β = 0.19-0.32), whereas neither Alzheimer's disease PRS was significantly associated with any outcome. After controlling for other factors known to predict cognitive outcomes of TBI (e.g., sex, education, mTBI severity defined by a combination of Glasgow Coma Scale scores and the presence/absence of acute intracranial findings on clinical neuroimaging), the Education-PRS and Intelligence-PRS remained independently predictive of verbal episodic memory (β = 0.10-0.16), whereas their associations with processing speed and executive functioning were mostly nonsignificant and were mediated through educational attainment. Looking across primary z-score and secondary raw score outcomes, cognitive outcomes 6 months post-mTBI were good on average, and PRS made small independent contributions to outcome prediction. The mediation model findings may support theories of cognitive reserve, which propose that individuals with stronger preinjury cognitive processing abilities (often estimated by educational history) can better compensate for TBI. Moreover, findings indicate that PRS may contribute modestly to multivariable models predicting cognitive function after TBI.

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PubMed2026

Comparison of the predictive performance of systemic immune-inflammation index and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio for three-month poor functional outcome in ischemic stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Ischemic stroke (IS) is a leading cause of global mortality and disability. Early and accurate prognosis is crucial for patient management. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) are emerging inflammatory biomarkers; however, their relative predictive value for three-month poor functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale [mRS] > 2) remains uncertain. METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library up to 20 July 2025, adhering to PRISMA guidelines. Observational studies reporting the association of SII or NLR with three-month poor outcome were included. Study quality was evaluated using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Area under the curve (AUC), odds ratios (OR), and standardized mean differences (SMD) were pooled using random-effects models in Stata 16.0. RESULTS: Twenty-one studies involving 7520 IS patients were analysed. NLR demonstrated marginally superior discriminative ability compared to SII (AUC 0.71, 95% CI: 0.67-0.76 vs. 0.68, 95% CI: 0.64-0.71), though this difference was not statistically significant. Elevated NLR was significantly associated with poor outcome (OR = 1.26, 95% CI: 1.17-1.37, p < .001), whereas SII was not (OR = 1.00, 95% CI: 1.00-1.00, p = .384). Both markers showed moderate effect sizes (SMD: NLR = 0.69, SII = 0.72; p < .001). NLR performed better in non-intervention and Chinese subgroups, while SII exhibited consistent AUC values across treatment and ethnic subgroups. CONCLUSION: NLR and SII are accessible prognostic markers in IS. NLR demonstrates superior accuracy and a significant association with poor outcome, while SII shows greater stability across patient subgroups. Both may assist in risk stratification, in resource-limited settings.

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PubMed2026

Risk Factors and Predictive Model for Postoperative High Myopia in Children Undergoing Congenital Cataract Surgery With Intraocular Lens Implantation.

PURPOSE: To identify risk factors associated with the development of high myopia following congenital cataract surgery and to establish a robust predictive model. DESIGN: Retrospective clinical cohort study. SUBJECTS: This retrospective study included 106 pediatric patients who underwent congenital cataract surgery with primary IOL implantation (mean follow-up 8.19 years). The model was externally validated in an independent cohort of 72 patients with a mean follow-up of 7.83 years. METHODS: Preoperative and postoperative ocular biometric parameters were collected. Risk factors for postoperative high myopia were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression, which served as the basis for model construction. The predictive performance of the model was rigorously evaluated for discrimination and calibration. Discriminative ability was quantified using Harrell's C-index and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Model calibration was assessed via calibration plots by comparing predicted probabilities with actual observed outcomes. Internal validation was performed using a bootstrapping method (500 iterations) to ensure model stability and adjust for potential overfitting. RESULTS: An initial postoperative refraction of <+0.75D, and a higher IOL Power to Axial length Ratio (IOL/AL ratio) were identified as significant risk factors for the development of postoperative high myopia. Shorter preoperative axial length was associated with a greater magnitude of postoperative myopic shift. The predictive model demonstrated robust performance, achieving a C-index of 0.711 (internal validation C-index: 0.713). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values for predicting high myopia at 5 and 10 years were 0.858 and 0.745, respectively. Furthermore, calibration curves demonstrated excellent agreement between the predicted and observed outcomes throughout the follow-up period. In external validation, the model achieved a C-index of 0.825, 5-year AUC of 0.833, and 10-year AUC of 0.713. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis established that initial postoperative refraction <+0.75D, and an elevated IOL/AL ratio are key determinants of high myopia risk following surgery. Shorter preoperative axial length was associated with a greater magnitude of postoperative myopic shift. This predictive framework provides clinicians with a practical tool to optimize preoperative IOL selection and identify high-risk infants who require vigilant myopia prevention and balanced amblyopia management.

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PubMed2026

Blood Metabolomic Signatures of 1-Hour Glucose Predict Cardiometabolic Risk.

BACKGROUND: Elevated 1-hour glucose levels during an oral glucose tolerance test strongly predict type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease. We investigated whether the fasting blood metabolome predicting 1-hour glucose could be a target for improving β-cell function, long-term glycemic trajectories, and reducing the risks of T2D and coronary heart disease. We also investigated whether plasma microRNAs derived from key metabolic organs regulate changes in a metabolomic risk score (MRS) for predicting 1-hour glucose. METHODS: Untargeted blood metabolomics and a frequently sampled 75-g oral glucose tolerance test were performed in participants from the OmniCarb trial (n=162). In an independent weight-loss dietary intervention trial (POUNDS Lost [Preventing Overweight Using Novel Dietary Strategies]), temporal changes in MRS and plasma microRNAs measured by genome-wide sequencing were analyzed. In addition, associations of MRS at baseline and its 10-year changes with long-term risk of incident T2D and coronary heart disease were prospectively investigated in the NHS (Nurses' Health Study). RESULTS: We created a fasting blood MRS for predicting 1-hour glucose (Pearson r=0.8) and found significant associations with half-day (diurnal) postprandial glucose excursions and insulin secretion after 5-week controlled feeding interventions varying in carbohydrate amount and glycemic index. In the POUNDS Lost trial, diet-induced changes in MRSs were related to 2-year trajectories of glucose metabolism; circulating microRNAs regulating cardiometabolic abnormalities were pivotal factors influencing these changes. In the NHS, women in the top 20% of MRS had a multivariate-adjusted relative risk of 3.80 (95% CI, 2.22-6.51) for T2D and 1.48 (95% CI, 1.04-2.12) for coronary heart disease compared with those in the lowest 20%. In addition, 10-year increases in plasma metabolites related to 1-hour glucose were linearly associated with a higher risk of T2D. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that fasting blood metabolomic signatures predicting elevated 1-hour glucose reflect disease pathophysiology and could be targets for preventing T2D and coronary heart disease.

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PubMed2026

A multi-scale fusion model based on multi-phase contrast-enhanced CT for predicting pancreatic cancer resectability.

Purpose.Develop a multi-scale fusion model (MSFM) based on multi-phase contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) to predict pancreatic cancer (PC) resectability, thereby assisting expert decision-making.Methods.This retrospective study enrolled 280 patients with PC from four institutions, which were randomly divided into a training cohort (202 patients) and an independent test cohort (78 patients). Three-phase CECT images (arterial, venous, and delayed phases) were used for modeling. The MSFM comprises two sub-networks: (1) a multi-phase fusion network for extracting cross-phase shared fusion features, (2) a phase-specific branch network for capturing phase-specific features; and a post-fusion strategy to generate the final predictive score by integrating the shared fusion features and three groups of phase-specific features. Additionally, a human-machine fusion deep learning model (HMfDL) was constructed by fusing the predictive score of the MSFM with expert assessments.Results.In the independent test, the MSFM achieved an AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) of 0.8385 (95% CI: 0.7521-0.9249), accuracy of 84.62%, sensitivity of 72.00%, and specificity of 90.57%. This performance outperformed single-phase models (AUC range: 0.7638-0.7781), two-phase models (AUC range: 0.7826-0.7864), and ten states-of-the-art classifiers (AUC range: 0.7404-0.7796). The HMfDL further improved the performance, reaching an AUC of 0.8626 (95% CI: 0.7853-0.9400), accuracy of 91.03%, sensitivity of 80.00%, and specificity of 96.23%. Notably, the HMfDL corrected 58.82% of misdiagnosis made by experts.Conclusions. The MSFM effectively fuses multi-phase CECT to enable highly accurate predictions of PC resectability, and provides valuable support for expert decision-making through HMfDL.

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PubMed2026

MicroRNAs in Oral Bio-Fluids as Predictive Biomarkers of Orthodontic Tooth Movement: A Systematic Review.

This systematic review was designed to assess scientific evidence of the association of microRNA expression during orthodontic tooth movement through various time points. A systematic review was performed in accordance with the PRISMA checklist. A search strategy was developed in electronic databases including Med Line, Scopus, EBSCO Host and ProQuest Dissertations & Theses Global until June 2025. Eligibility criteria included studies that investigated microRNA expression in saliva/GCF during orthodontic treatment. The risk of bias of the included studies was analysed using the QUADAS-2 and RoB-2 tools. The search retrieved 2800 records, of which nine studies were selected. Minor variations in GCF collection were noted, while stimulated saliva was collected in one study. RT-PCR and the Fluro meter accounted for the majority of miRNA estimation. Thirteen miRNAs were identified as target biomarkers for OTM regulation. Despite the high risk of bias, the evidence from the current systematic review indicates that microRNAs can be considered as potential biomarkers of orthodontic tooth movement in oral biofluids. Trial Registration: Prospero ID-CRD420251153064.

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