Search PubMedSearch

SEARCH · Search PubMed

Results for “Predictive modelling”

Search indexed PubMed citations on genomics, clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health. Explore titles, authors and supplied subject terms, then open the PubMed record.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

986 records · Page 15Linked to original sources

Symptoms and treatment response to florensocatib and inhaled tobramycin in bronchiectasis: Post hoc analysis of two randomized trials.

Inhaled antibiotics and DPP-1 inhibitors improve clinical outcomes in bronchiectasis, but whether baseline symptom burden predicts differential treatment responses remains unclear. In this post hoc analysis of two multicenter randomized trials (SAVE-BE, n = 224; TORNASOL, n = 357), we evaluate the association between baseline Quality of Life-Bronchiectasis Respiratory Symptom Scale (QoL-B-RSS) and treatment effects of florensocatib and inhaled tobramycin. In SAVE-BE, florensocatib reduces exacerbation rates versus placebo (relative risk [RR], 0.47; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.33-0.67; p < 0.0001), with RRs of 0.53 and 0.40 observed in patients with high and low symptom burdens, respectively, but no significant symptomatic improvement. In TORNASOL, tobramycin produces clinically meaningful QoL-B-RSS improvements (exceeding the 8-point cutoff in high-symptom patients) and ameliorates bronchitic symptoms, with greater benefits in those with higher baseline symptom burden. These hypothesis-generating findings suggest that baseline symptom burden may identify differential responses to anti-inflammatory versus anti-infective therapies in bronchiectasis and support its potential as a simple, practical stratification tool to guide personalized treatment.

Humans

LitCTL1: A novel C-type lectin involved in the mucosal and cellular immunity of the common periwinkle Littorinalittorea.

C-type lectins (CTLs) are vital pattern-recognition receptors (PRRs) that mediate innate immune responses in mollusks, yet their characterization in Caenogastropoda, the largest gastropod group, remains limited. This study characterizes LitCTL1, a novel secreted single-domain C-type lectin from the common periwinkle, Littorina littorea. The 199-amino acid polypeptide contains a conserved carbohydrate recognition domain with canonical QPD and WND motifs and is predicted to form a homodimer. Uniquely, LitCTL1 was localized in both circulating hemocytes and mucus-secreting epithelial cells of the foot, mantle, and hypobranchial gland - the first report of such dual localization for a molluscan lectin, linking systemic and mucosal defense. Expression analysis revealed that LitCTL1 is constitutively expressed in hemocytes. Functional assays with recombinant LitCTL1 demonstrated its role as a potent opsonin with hemagglutinating activity, significantly enhancing hemocyte spreading and the phagocytosis of zymosan. Genomic analysis reveals that LitCTL1 belongs to a rapidly diversifying, genus-specific expansion distinct from conserved perlucin-like lineages. These results identify LitCTL1 as a key effector molecule in both systemic and mucosal innate immunity, likely reflecting an evolutionary adaptation to the microbial challenges of the intertidal environment.

Animals

Genome-wide identification and characterization of ABC transporters and their expression in response to saline-alkaline stress and WSSV infection in Fenneropenaeus chinensis.

ATP-binding cassette (ABC) transporters play crucial roles in stress responses across organisms, yet their functions in Fenneropenaeus chinensis remain largely unknown. In this study, we identified 42 FcABC genes (FcABCs) in the F. chinensis genome and analyzed their phylogenetic relationships, gene structures, and chromosomal distributions. Phylogenetic analysis grouped the FcABCs into eight subfamilies (ABCA-ABCH), with conserved motif and domain compositions within each subfamily. Expression analysis showed that several FcABC genes, including FcABCG5, FcABCA1, and FcABCC3, were significantly induced under saline-alkaline stress in gill and hepatopancreas tissues. In contrast, most FcABCs were downregulated after WSSV challenge, though a subset (e.g., FcABCB1, FcABCC1) exhibited early upregulation. Functional validation via RNA interference demonstrated that knockdown of FcABCG5 increased shrimp mortality under saline-alkaline stress. Cis-regulatory element analysis revealed an enrichment of stress- and immune-related elements in FcABC promoters. Protein-protein interaction network predictions indicated potential roles for FcABCs in cholesterol metabolism and organic anion transport. Our findings provide insights into the roles of FcABC genes in stress adaptation and immune defense, offering candidate genes for the breeding of stress-resistant shrimp varieties.

Animals

Longitudinal associations between family factors and the neurodevelopmental and psychosocial outcomes of children with congenital heart disease: A systematic review.

Family factors have been gaining increased attention in understanding adverse neurodevelopmental and psychosocial outcomes for children with congenital heart disease (CHD). To clarify relevance, we undertook a systematic review of only longitudinal studies which assessed such associations. Comparisons with the contribution of disease/surgical factors were also made where included studies considered such. We included longitudinal studies which assessed dynamic family factors (e.g. parent mental health, attachment, family functioning) and later child outcomes. Searches were conducted across CINAHL, Medline-Pubmed, PsychInfo and SCOPUS Web of Science. The NIH Quality Assessment Tool was used to evaluate study quality and risk of bias. Eighteen studies, utilizing data from 11 study samples and 2109 participants, met inclusion criteria. These studies included samples from infancy, with follow-up periods stretching into young adulthood, and with various degrees of CHD severity. The quality of studies was "good" to "fair", with key limitations of attrition and limited sociocultural diversity in samples. Findings suggested that family factors predicted later child psychosocial outcomes and more consistently than severity of disease indicators. This contrasted with a much smaller number of studies examining family factors and child neurodevelopmental outcomes, where no reliable conclusions could be reached. Findings highlight the importance of screening and family focused interventions for this population.

Child

Recent advances in Strongyloides screening, diagnostics, therapeutics, and management.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Strongyloidiasis affects an estimated 30-100 million people globally and can have life-threatening consequences in immunocompromised hosts, yet it remains underdiagnosed due to limited access and performance of available diagnostics. Novel assays and anthelmintics may reshape screening, diagnosis, treatment, and prevention for at-risk populations. RECENT FINDINGS: Advances in molecular diagnostics coupled with robust stool extraction methods have supplanted traditional parasitologic methods in settings where nucleic acid amplification is feasible. Transition from standard immunoglobulin G (IgG)-based immunoassays to the new IgG- and IgG4-based rapid diagnostic tests using recombinant Strongyloides stercoralis nematode immunodominant E antigen (NIE) and/or S. stercoralis immunoreactive antigen (SsIR) has facilitated serologic screening at the point of care. The World Health Organization now conditionally recommends community-wide ivermectin mass drug administration in highly endemic settings. Regarding new treatment options, moxidectin is noninferior to ivermectin with 93-94% cure rates and a longer half-life, while emodepside shows 80-90% predicted cure rates in early trials and offers a mechanistically distinct option. Understanding of immunosuppressed populations at risk for hyperinfection has expanded, prompting updated screening recommendations. SUMMARY: Serologic and molecular tools are improving screening and diagnosis, and moxidectin and emodepside may broaden treatment options, but data in severe disease and special populations remain limited. Priorities include harmonized screening algorithms and prospective studies in high-risk groups.

Humans

Free polyphenols and multi-omics traits underlying antioxidant variation across Paeonia lactiflora leaf cultivars.

Leaves of Paeonia lactiflora are underutilized by-products with potential as natural antioxidant sources. In this study, 18 cultivars were evaluated for phytochemical composition and in vitro antioxidant capacity. Total phenolic content correlated strongly with DPPH and ABTS activities, and the comprehensive antioxidant index identified 'Coral Charm' and 'Hangshao' as representative high- and low-antioxidant cultivars, respectively. Untargeted metabolomics detected 2677 metabolites and identified 908 differential metabolites between the two cultivars. Targeted phenolic profiling quantified 27 compounds, among which 11 differed significantly between the two cultivars. Catechin and epicatechin were enriched in 'Coral Charm', with contents of 6.62 and 0.397&#xa0;ng/mg, respectively, compared with 0.012 and 0.002&#xa0;ng/mg in 'Hangshao'. (+)-Dihydroquercetin was also more abundant in 'Coral Charm', while caffeic acid showed an upward trend. Proteomic analysis identified 423 differentially expressed proteins, mainly associated with secondary metabolite biosynthesis, redox homeostasis, and central carbon metabolism. Integrated analysis identified pyruvate metabolism as the only pathway significantly enriched in both metabolomic and proteomic datasets. Molecular docking predicted favorable binding between representative phenolics and selected proteins. These findings link cultivar-dependent antioxidant variation in peony leaves with free-phenolic accumulation and pathway-level metabolic differences, supporting the selection and utilization of antioxidant-rich peony leaf resources.

Antioxidants

Efferocytosis regulatory factors in atherosclerosis: A preclinical systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Impaired efferocytosis is a key driver of plaque instability during atherosclerosis progression. Efficient clearance of apoptotic cells through efferocytosis relies on the coordinated action of multiple regulatory factors. METHODS: PubMed, Web of Science, ScienceDirect, OVID MEDLINE, and Scopus were searched for studies published up to February 7, 2026. Eligible preclinical studies were systematically reviewed to identify endogenous factors that regulate efferocytosis in atherosclerosis. Clinical evidence was also incorporated to enable a preliminary translational assessment of these regulatory factors. RESULTS: Thirty-five endogenous regulatory factors were identified from 36 included studies, and their functional roles across distinct stages of efferocytosis were characterized. Notably, metabolic regulators such as PKM2, PFKFB3, GLS1, and Drp1 were involved in distinct efferocytosis stages. This suggests that metabolic reprogramming may provide the metabolic support require for efficient efferocytosis and inflammation resolution. Ten factors were supported by preliminary clinical evidence consistent with preclinical data. PKM2 was the only candidate biomarker with prospective observational data. However, its independent predictive value still requires validation in multicenter prospective studies. CONCLUSIONS: This review provides a systematic synthesis of 35 endogenous efferocytosis regulators and elucidates their regulatory network in atherosclerosis based on a functional stage framework. Metabolic reprogramming is identified as a central hub linking efferocytosis efficiency to inflammation resolution. This review offers a new theoretical basis for efferocytosis-targeted intervention strategies.

Animals

CNOT1 is a potential YTHDF2 target that orchestrates maternal mRNA decay and zygotic genome activation during goat embryogenesis.

Timely and efficient degradation of maternal mRNA is essential for early embryonic development, which occurs from fertilization through the initiation of zygotic genome activation (ZGA). Yet, the regulatory mechanisms governing this process remain poorly characterized. In the present study, we investigated the function of CCR4-NOT transcription complex subunit 1 (CNOT1) during goat embryogenesis. We found that CNOT1 was upregulated during mammalian ZGA, and that its knockdown led to developmental arrest and a marked reduction in blastocyst formation. Moreover, CNOT1 knockdown impaired nascent RNA activity, resulting in 814 upregulated and 1014 downregulated genes, which were enriched for RNA splicing, regulation of chromosome organization, and RNA localization. RNA splicing analysis revealed differential splicing events in 2959 genes, of which 259 were downregulated following CNOT1 knockdown. Notably, CNOT1 was predicted to crosstalk with the m6A reader YTHDF2. Knockdown of YTHDF2 resulted in CNOT1 downregulation at the 8-cell stage in goats and increased transcription levels around polyadenylation sites during ZGA in mice. Together, these findings indicate that CNOT1 is a potential YTHDF2 target that orchestrates maternal mRNA decay and ZGA during goat embryogenesis. Our work provides new insight into the complex regulatory landscape underlying ZGA and may inform strategies to improve the efficiency of goat embryogenesis.

Animals

Pharmacogenomic and drug interactions risk in cardio-oncology: A precision medicine perspective for India.

Cardio-oncology patients may face complex treatment regimens due to the concurrent existence of cancer and cardiovascular disease, leading to a considerable polypharmacy burden. This significantly increases the prospect of drug-drug interactions (DDIs) and gene-drug interactions. The majority of these interactions arise from comparable pharmacokinetic and pharmacological pathways associated with drug transporters and cytochrome P450 enzymes. The significance of pharmacogenomics in tailored treatment strategies are emphasised by the fact that genetic variability enhances individual differences in drug response, safety, and efficacy. This narrative review focus on the effects of key genetic polymorphisms (e.g., DPYD, CYP2C19, and CYP2C9) on the metabolism and efficacy of commonly prescribed anticancer and cardiovascular medications such as fluoropyrimidines, clopidogrel, and warfarin. In addition it explore the role of pharmacogenomic variants on drug-drug interactions within the field of cardio-oncology. The study ultimately emphasizes the necessity of precision medicine in India to address the genetic diversity and underrepresentation in global genomic databases. The absence of pharmacogenomic testing, infrastructural deficiencies, financial constraints, and insufficient clinical integration hinder the widespread use of this technology in India. The Genome India Project and other national initiatives establish the foundation for pharmacogenomic-guided therapy. Utilizing genetic data, together with artificial intelligence-based predictive tools, for clinical decision-making may enhance medication safety and yield optimal outcomes in Indian cardio-oncology patients.

Humans

Comparative analysis of gut microbiota in yaks under different feeding management strategies during cold seasons.

Yaks (Bos grunniens) are crucial for the livelihoods of pastoral communities in cold regions, where feed scarcity during the cold season poses challenges to their health and productivity, underscoring the necessity of understanding how dietary management influences the gut microbiota. In this study, 24 yak steers matched for body weight and health status were randomly allocated to four groups: natural grazing or indoor feeding with roughage-to-concentrate ratios of 50:50, 70:30, or 90:10. Fecal samples were collected for 16S rDNA sequencing and subsequent functional prediction of the microbiota. The results showed that Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes were the dominant phyla across all groups, and UCG-005 and Rikenellaceae_RC9_gut_group were the predominant genera. Concentrate supplementation during the cold season significantly enhanced microbial richness and diversity, with the 70:30 ratio exerting the most pronounced beneficial effects on microbiota structure and key taxa enrichment. These findings highlight the critical role of dietary management in shaping the yak gut microbiota during cold seasons and suggest that the 70:30 ratio optimally improves microbial community structure, thereby promoting yak health and productivity under harsh climatic conditions. Future research should explore the long-term implications of such dietary strategies.

Animals

Identification of CD55 as a downstream factor of EP4 receptor signaling in colorectal cancer cells.

Prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) signaling through the E-type prostanoid 4 (EP4) receptor has been implicated in the pathophysiology of colorectal cancer (CRC). We herein identified decay-accelerating factor, also known as CD55, as a novel CRC-associated downstream factor of the EP4 receptor. The integration of transcriptomic profiling of PGE2-stimulated HCA-7 human colon cancer cells with analyses of cancer genomic databases predicted CD55 as a potential EP4 receptor-regulated target. Inhibitor-based experiments showed the induction of CD55 after a PGE2 stimulation required the EP4 receptor and Gi protein in HCA-7 cells, whereas protein kinase A signaling was dispensable. In combination with a toxicogenomic database analysis, p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) was identified as the predominant effector connecting the EP4 receptor to CD55 upregulation. A single-cell RNA-seq re-analysis of human CRC tissues revealed CD55 upregulation and p38 MAPK-related gene set enrichment in epithelial cells expressing the EP4 receptor, suggesting that this induction mechanism may operate in a subset of epithelial cells in clinical specimens. Collectively, these results delineate a PGE2/EP4 receptor/Gi protein/p38 MAPK signaling axis that induces CD55 expression in HCA-7 cells and epithelial tumor cells, provide new mechanistic clues for understanding the regulation of complement regulatory molecule CD55 expression by prostaglandin signaling.

Humans

Multi-omics analysis reveals coordinated epigenetic dysregulation in atrazine-induced dopaminergic neurotoxicity.

Atrazine (ATR), a widely used triazine herbicide, has been linked to neurotoxicity, yet the epigenetic mechanisms underlying its dopaminergic effects remain unclear. This study investigated whether coordinated miRNA dysregulation and DNA methylation alterations contribute to ATR-induced Parkinson's disease (PD)-like neurotoxicity. Male Sprague-Dawley rats were administered ATR (50&#x202f;mg/kg/day) for 90 days, resulting in motor and cognitive deficits with dopaminergic dysfunction, including increased &#x3b1;-synuclein and reduced tyrosine hydroxylase expression. Small RNA sequencing identified 72 differentially expressed miRNAs in the substantia nigra, enriched in PI3K-Akt, MAPK, and Ras signaling pathways. In a cohort of six PD patients and six matched controls, genome-wide DNA methylation profiling revealed 4694 differentially methylated positions, predominantly hypomethylated, with overlapping enrichment in neuronal signaling pathways. Weighted gene co-expression network analysis identified a PD-associated module strongly correlated with disease status (r&#x202f;=&#x202f;-0.95, P&#x202f;<&#x202f;0.001). Multi-omics integration identified CASP3 as a central hub gene. External validation supported CASP3 relevance in PD (AUC&#x202f;=&#x202f;0.833), and molecular docking suggested potential ATR-CASP3 interaction. Further analysis predicted upregulated miR-3552 as a potential upstream regulator of CASP3. These findings indicate that ATR-induced neurotoxicity may be mediated through the miR-3552/CASP3 signaling axis, ultimately regulating apoptosis and contributing to neurodegeneration.

Animals

Characterization of ZIC5 expression in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and its association with patient survival.

Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is a prevalent malignancy known for its aggressive nature and poor prognosis. The present study aimed to investigate the expression levels and clinical importance of the Zic family member 5 (ZIC5) gene in ESCC. Gene expression data and survival information obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas and Gene Expression Omnibus were utilized. In 176 patients with surgically resected ESCC, immunohistochemical analysis was conducted to validate the expression of ZIC5 protein in cancerous and adjacent tissues. The findings of the present study revealed a significant upregulation of ZIC5 in ESCC compared with normal tissues (P<0.05), which was further corroborated by immunohistochemistry exhibiting a notable association between ZIC5 expression and clinical parameters such as tumor size, invasion depth, lymph node metastasis and TNM staging (P<0.05). Survival analysis further indicated that high ZIC5 expression was an independent prognostic factor for poor outcomes in patients with ESCC (hazard ratio=1.519; 95% CI: 1.017-2.269; P<0.05). In addition, bioinformatic analyses predicted that hsa-microRNA-212-5p may regulate ZIC5 mRNA and gene enrichment analysis suggested that ZIC5 may facilitate ESCC progression through involvement in the cell cycle and DNA repair pathways. In conclusion, ZIC5 is highly expressed in ESCC and associated with a poor prognosis, indicating its potential as a therapeutic target and biomarker for ESCC management. Further studies are warranted to elucidate the precise mechanisms underlying the role of ZIC5 in ESCC progression.

ESCC

Ecological momentary assessment studies on food craving among healthy adults: A systematic review.

Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) can capture the dynamic nature of food craving in free-living conditions, addressing limitations of laboratory and retrospective reporting methods. This systematic review synthesized findings from EMA studies to characterize 1) methodological features, 2) the temporal dynamics of food craving, and 3) the relationship between craving and eating behaviors. A systematic search of PubMed and PsycINFO databases was conducted following PRISMA guidelines. The review included 23 studies that utilized EMA designs to assess food craving repeatedly in daily life among healthy adults. Most studies employed EMA protocols that prompted participants to respond at pre-specified time points and utilized single-item craving measures. Most craving measures (71%) lacked specificity regarding the type of food craved. Results revealed a consistent positive within-person association between hunger and food craving. Conversely, associations between stress/negative affect and craving were inconsistent, varying by individual traits and context. Momentary food craving appeared to predict subsequent eating outcomes. Evidence suggested food craving may be a dynamic, transient state that co-fluctuates with hunger, functioning as a proximal antecedent to food intake. However, reliance on non-specific food craving measures and EMA protocols prompting at fixed schedules limits the granular understanding of craving mechanisms. Future research requires refining food craving measurement and incorporating randomized prompting within predefined windows, or participant-initiated sampling triggered by specific events (e.g., eating occasion), to better characterize food craving dynamics in relation to eating behaviors.

Humans

A combined stimulus of acute fasting and exercise modulates hippocampal mitochondrial quality control in healthy mice.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Exercise and fasting are recognized for their ability to improve brain health and mitigate neurodegeneration. However, little is known about how these interventions acutely impact mitochondrial quality control mechanisms including mitophagy. METHODS: We examined the effects of a single bout of fasting and exercise (FEx) on hippocampal mitochondrial function and proteomic remodeling in male and female mice. To assess in vivo autophagy dynamics, we combined proteomics with chloroquine (CQ) inhibition of autophagic flux. Mice were assigned to sedentary (Sed), fasting (F), exercise (Ex), or combined FEx groups and received unilateral intrahippocampal injections of CQ or PBS following treatments. Four hours later, hippocampi were collected for analysis. RESULTS: LC3-II levels significantly increased in the FEx group only following CQ treatment, indicating enhanced autophagic flux. Proteomic profiling showed sedentary males failed to mount a robust response to FEx however females exhibited upregulation of proteins involved in the TCA cycle, glutathione metabolism, and oxidative phosphorylation, suggesting greater mitochondrial adaptability. Functional assays supported these findings, females showed increased complex IV activity post-FEx. The mitochondrial DNA / nuclear DNA ratio increased after FEx regardless of sex, and upstream regulator analysis predicted activation of mitochondrial biogenesis. CONCLUSIONS: Together, these data reveal sex-specific mitochondrial remodeling in response to acute fasting and exercise. Defining these normative responses is critical for understanding how mitochondrial adaptability shapes resilience or vulnerability to neurological challenges.

Animals

Forensic taphonomy in fluvial water: A systematic review.

Human remains are frequently recovered from fluvial (lotic) water environments. Rivers, streams, canals and other flowing water bodies pose distinct challenges in forensic practice, particularly due to their current. Compared to other aquatic contexts, fluviatile taphonomy is underrepresented in the forensic literature and the last comprehensive summary was written over a decade ago. Therefore, a systematic review was performed to collect and summarise the current knowledge in forensics about fluvial taphonomy, including decomposition of remains, transport characteristics, search, postmortem submersion interval (PMSI) estimation, taphonomic alterations, and differences to other water bodies. 92 reports met the inclusion criteria for this review, most of them showed a moderate risk of bias. Their main findings were summarised and two major challenges identified. First, predictions about fluvial transport of human bodies pose a tremendous issue in forensic practice, leading to later detection and lower recovery rate of remains, complicating various subsequent analyses. Second, PMSI estimations are difficult particularly due to variable environmental conditions in fluviatile systems. Recommendations for future research in the area of fluvial forensic taphonomy include that case-related data such as the detailed decomposition state and river characteristics need to be made available. More standardised research protocols are required for a facilitated comparison between studies, environments and regions. This review provides forensic practitioners with a comprehensive, updated resource for the investigation of fluvial remains. It also guides future research towards a more efficient practice to build the basis for a broader, more robust and comprehensive synthesis, subsequently supporting analyses in forensic casework.

Humans

Cross-tissue multi-omics integration highlights BPHL and mitochondrial targets in Alzheimer's disease.

BACKGROUND: Mitochondrial dysfunction is a hallmark of Alzheimer's disease (AD), yet specific molecular targets remain to be fully characterized. METHODS: A summary-data-based Mendelian randomization (SMR) framework integrated AD genome-wide association study (GWAS) statistics (39,918 cases) with blood DNA methylation quantitative trait loci (mQTL), gene expression (eQTL), and protein (pQTL) data for 1136 mitochondria-related genes. Associations were assessed using Bayesian colocalization and HEIDI testing. Tissue relevance was evaluated in four brain regions (hippocampus, amygdala, cortex, frontal cortex) using GTEx and external transcriptomic datasets. RESULTS: Screening identified eight candidates supported across blood mQTL and eQTL layers. Stepwise central nervous system (CNS) evaluation singled out biphenyl hydrolase-like (BPHL) as the consistent candidate. Higher genetically predicted BPHL expression was associated with reduced AD risk across the hippocampus (OR=0.920, 95% CI 0.873-0.970), amygdala (OR=0.925, 95%CI 0.880-0.973), cortex (OR=0.943, 95% CI 0.908-0.978), and frontal cortex (OR=0.938, 95%CI 0.901-0.976). These findings aligned with protein-protein interactions connecting BPHL to respiratory complexes and lower BPHL expression in independent AD brains. Functional enrichment converged on oxidative phosphorylation pathways. CONCLUSIONS: By integrating multi-omics data with tissue-specific validation, this study nominates BPHL as a consistent protective candidate in the brain. These findings provide genetic support for mitochondrial molecular perturbations in AD, offering insights for future validation.

Alzheimer Disease

How Do Climatic Factors Directly Influence the Incidence and Risk of Meningococcal Meningitis Across the African Meningitis Belt? A Narrative Literature Review.

Globally, the highest incidence of meningococcal meningitis occurs within the African meningitis belt, spanning 26 countries across sub-Saharan Africa. Meningococcal meningitis incidence is highly seasonal in this region specifically, with outbreaks mostly occurring during the dry season, characterized by low rainfall and atmospheric humidity, high temperature, and increased dust and wind speed. The strong seasonality of meningococcal outbreaks coincides with seasonal variation in climatic factors. This multicollinearity can make it difficult to identify environmental drivers of disease and the mechanisms by which they operate. This review aims to collate existing evidence to better clarify the mechanisms by which climatic variables influence meningococcal meningitis incidence. We examined the impact of dust, wind speed, temperature, rainfall, and land cover on meningococcal meningitis outbreaks. Within the literature, atmospheric dust and wind speed had the strongest statistical association with meningococcal outbreaks and demonstrated greater predictive probability than other climatic variables. However, several climatic factors have demonstrable influences on one another, reflected in the seasonality of meningococcal meningitis. Atmospheric dust can reduce precipitation levels in part through its radiative properties. Decreased rainfall and increasing temperatures can dry out soil, increasing its availability to be uplifted as dust. Alongside, this lower atmospheric humidity increases evaporative demand, leading to faster soil moisture loss and enhanced surface drying. We argue that rainfall, temperature, and land cover variability may act as part of a broader climatic mechanism, increasing atmospheric dust. This increases the incidence and risk of meningococcal meningitis.

Africa