SEARCH · Search PubMed

Results for “Risk assessment”

Search indexed PubMed citations on genomics, clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health. Explore titles, authors and supplied subject terms, then open the PubMed record.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

1,710 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

PubMed2026

PGR expression as a pharmacogenomic companion biomarker to GENE70-derived genomic risk in ER-positive/HER2-negative breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: The biology of the estrogen receptor-positive (ER+) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative (HER2-) breast cancers is heterogeneous even when they are categorized by their risk via genomics. Transcriptomic PGR expression reflects endocrine pathway activity and may provide complementary biological information within established GENE70-derived genomic-risk categories. Whether this molecular marker improves the biological interpretation of genomic-risk stratification beyond conventional clinicopathological assessment remains uncertain. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to determine whether transcriptomic PGR expression provides complementary biological and prognostic information within reconstructed GENE70-derived genomic-risk categories and refines the characterization of endocrine-related tumour biology in ER-positive/HER2-negative breast cancer. METHODS: This study analysed publicly available transcriptomic and clinical data from three cohorts: METABRIC (discovery cohort), GSE96058/SCAN-B cohort (validation cohort) and TCGA-BRCA cohort (molecular validation cohort). The GENE70-derived genomic-risk score was reconstructed for each cohort using matched genes. Cox regression, Kaplan-Meier analysis and subgroup comparisons were used to assess relationships between PGR expression, clinicopathologic variables, molecular features and survival outcomes. RESULTS: Across the three independent cohorts, low transcriptomic PGR expression was consistently associated with higher GENE70-derived genomic risk, increased MKI67 expression, reduced ESR1 expression and enrichment of the Luminal B subtype. Survival findings differed between cohorts. In the discovery METABRIC cohort, transcriptomic PGR expression showed heterogeneous associations with survival, particularly within GENE70-derived high-risk subgroups, whereas the external GSE96058/SCAN-B validation cohort demonstrated consistent associations between low PGR expression and poorer overall survival in both the overall ER-positive/HER2-negative population and GENE70-derived high-risk subgroups. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that transcriptomic PGR provides complementary biological and prognostic information within GENE70-derived genomic-risk categories. However, because treatment response was not evaluated in the present study, the findings should not be interpreted as evidence of predictive or pharmacogenomic utility and prospective studies incorporating treatment-response analyses are required before such applications can be established.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Construction of precision clinical-proteomics risk model based on machine learning for predicting heart failure in type II diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Heart failure (HF) is a severe complication in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), but current risk stratification scores have limited predictive accuracy. We aimed to develop novel prediction tools integrating clinical variables with proteomics to improve risk stratification of hospitalization for HF in T2DM. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this study, we included 2111 UK Biobank participants with T2DM but no prior HF, and profiled 2920 proteins to predict 10-year incident HF hospitalization. Participants were randomly divided into training (70%), tuning (10%), and validation (20%) sets.Three prediction models were developed: a Clinical model based on demographic characteristics, comorbidities, medication use, and laboratory indices; a Protein model based on 40 proteins selected by the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM); and the Clinical OMics and Protein ASSessment for Heart Failure (COMPASS-HF) model, which integrated both clinical variables and the LGBM-selected proteins. Models were evaluated for area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity. During follow-up, 168 participants (7.96%) developed incident HF. The COMPASS-HF model showed better discrimination than the Clinical model, with an AUC of 0.897 (95% CI: 0.850-0.945) versus 0.790 (95% CI: 0.723-0.856). It also demonstrated higher sensitivity (0.882; 95% CI: 0.725-0.967) and consistent performance in subgroups. COMPASS-HF effectively stratified risk of hospitalization for HF, with cumulative incidence rates of 31.9% in the high-risk group and 1.2% in the low-risk group. CONCLUSIONS: By combining clinical and proteomic variables, we developed a high-performance HF prediction model for T2DM, enabling precise risk stratification and informing early intervention strategies.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Efficacy and Safety of Rivaroxaban in Patients with Peripheral Artery Disease: A GRADE-assessed Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Peripheral artery disease (PAD) is a common atherosclerotic disorder characterized by progressive arterial narrowing in the limbs. This study aims to determine the efficacy and safety of rivaroxaban, focusing on major cardiovascular events, limb outcomes, and bleeding risks. METHODS: PubMed, Cochrane, and EMBASE were searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and nonrandomized comparative studies that compared rivaroxaban, either alone or in combination with aspirin, to placebo or standard care such as antiplatelet therapy. Risk ratios and hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals were pooled using R v4.5.1 with an appropriate random-effects model applied. Subgroup analyses were performed according to rivaroxaban plus aspirin versus rivaroxaban alone. RESULTS: A total of 39,991 participants across 6 studies were included. Compared with control, use of rivaroxaban was linked to a significant reduction in composite efficacy outcomes (relative risk [RR] = 0.84, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.78-0.91, P < 0.001), risk of acute limb ischemia (RR = 0.65, 95% CI 0.55-0.78, P < 0.001), and thromboembolism (RR = 0.60, 95% CI 0.38-0.97, P = 0.037). Although rivaroxaban plus aspirin failed to show a significant reduction in the risk of amputation, rivaroxaban alone reported a significant risk reduction (RR = 0.50, 95% CI 0.30-0.85, P = 0.003). However, its use was associated with a significantly higher risk of major bleeding (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.54, 95% CI 1.38-1.72, P < 0.001) and International Society on Thrombosis and Hemostasis-defined bleeding (RR = 1.45, 95% CI 1.19-1.76, P < 0.001). No significant differences were observed for stroke, myocardial infarction, major adverse limb events, fatal bleeding, mortality, or cardiovascular mortality. CONCLUSION: Rivaroxaban-based therapy reduced the trial-defined composite efficacy outcome, acute limb ischemia, and thromboembolism in patients with PAD, but increased the risk of major bleeding. These findings support individualized use of rivaroxaban-based therapy in carefully selected patients, balancing ischemic and limb-protective benefits against bleeding risk.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Harnessing Polygenic Risk Scores to Refine Venous Thromboembolism Risk Stratification.

BACKGROUND: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a major cause of morbidity in patients of all ages. Despite growing interest in polygenic risk scores (PRS) for VTE, their utility remains understudied. Our objective was to evaluate the independent impact of a PRS on VTE susceptibility in adults and children. METHODS: We completed a retrospective, case-control study of two separate cohorts with evaluation of three VTE PRS models, with the primary analysis focused on a 293 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) PRS. The adult cohort included 597 VTE cases and 31 998 controls, and the pediatric cohort included 109 cases and 448 controls, both obtained from a de-identified databank with linked genetic data. Separate adult and pediatric multivariable logistic regressions were performed to measure the association of risk factors with VTE. RESULTS: Higher PRS in adults was significantly associated with increased odds of VTE, with each 1-standard deviation increase in PRS conferring an adjusted odds ratio of 1.25 (OR = 1.25, 95% CI 1.15-1.36, p < 0.001). Leading risk factors for adults were cancer (OR = 2.43, 95% CI: 2.04-2.89, p < 0.001) and recent surgery (OR = 2.16, 95% CI: 1.83-2.54, p < 0.001). The standardized PRS also exhibited increased risk for VTE in children (OR = 1.38, 95% CI 1.10-1.74, p = 0.003). Central venous catheterization (OR = 5.65, 95% CI 3.40-9.50, p < 0.001) was the foremost risk factor for pediatric VTE. CONCLUSION: VTE in adults and children is multifactorial, with clinical and genome-wide risk factors contributing. PRS may serve as a valuable adjunct to clinical risk factors for VTE risk stratification.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Insights from expert panels on the EU clinical evaluation consultation procedure.

BACKGROUND: The Clinical Evaluation Consultation Procedure (CECP) under the EU Medical Device Regulation aims to strengthen and harmonize the assessment of high-risk medical devices. This review summarizes early insights from expert panels to support improved clinical evaluation practices. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This review analyses 34 expert panel opinions derived from 281 CECP submissions between April 2021 and December 2025. Statements from opinions were systematically extracted, de-duplicated, and grouped into thematic categories, with independent review and validation. The analysis focuses on common challenges found during the consultation procedure of the expert panels on the content of the clinical assessment in relation to clinical evidence, benefit-risk assessment, intended purpose alignment, and post-market clinical follow-up planning. RESULTS: Expert panel findings highlight recurrent issues in the sufficiency, consistency, and transparency of clinical evidence, underscoring the need for improved standardization and clearer guidance. CONCLUSIONS: Strengthening documentation quality and alignment across stakeholders will enhance the robustness, efficiency, and predictability of conformity assessments for high-risk medical devices.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

A hybrid effectiveness-implementation trial to integrate precision skin cancer risk feedback in federally qualified health centers.

BACKGROUND: Skin cancers are the most common type of cancer in the United States, occur in all segments of the population, and are preventable. Our previous research with primary care patients' demonstrated interest in and efficacy of a precision prevention intervention providing feedback on MC1R risk level (higher versus average) in combination with prevention education materials relative to a standard educational intervention. Our current study is a hybrid type 1 effectiveness-implementation trial deployed at six federally-qualified health centers. This paper presents the study protocol. METHODS: A community advisory panel will guide development of study materials and measures. Staff training at each clinic will be completed in-person. Patients will be approached and screened in-person. Those completing genetic testing and the baseline survey will be randomized to the precision versus standard intervention for each risk level with a target sample size of 286 for each combination. Primary outcomes of effectiveness, assessed at 6 and 12 months, include a tanning score (5 items assessing intentional and unintentional tanning), number of sunburns, conduct of a skin self-examination, and electronic health record documentation of clinician-patient communication about skin cancer prevention. Effectiveness comparisons will focus on the precision relative to the standard intervention among higher risk participants. Implementation data will be collected to identify barriers and facilitators. RESULTS: Effectiveness and implementation outcomes will be evaluated following study completion. CONCLUSIONS: Results will guide subsequent scale-up of the precision intervention, including modifications of the intervention as well as methods for implementation. CLINICAL TRIALS IDENTIFIER: NCT07222995.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Baseline Computed Tomography Coronary Angiography and Polygenic Risk Profiles in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes: A Cross-Sectional Analysis From the VOLTAIRE Study.

AIMS: To characterise baseline clinical, anatomical, and genetic cardiovascular risk profiles in participants enrolled in the VOLTAIRE (Evaluation of Polygenic Scores and CT Imaging in Risk Factor Modification in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes) study and examine concordance across these domains. METHODS: This analysis included adults with T2D who completed baseline computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) and polygenic risk score (PRS) assessment prior to randomisation in the VOLTAIRE study. Coronary atherosclerosis was evaluated using coronary artery calcium (CAC) score and CTCA-derived stenosis severity. Clinical risk was assessed using the New Zealand Society for the Study of Diabetes 5-year cardiovascular risk calculator. Polygenic risk for coronary artery disease was assessed using a genome-wide PRS and categorised into tertiles. RESULTS: Among 126 participants with T2D (mean age 57.5 ± 8.7 years; 62.7% male), coronary atherosclerotic burden was highly heterogeneous: 34.9% had CAC = 0, whereas 19.8% had CAC ≥ 400. Moderate-to-severe coronary stenosis (≥ 50%) was present in 40.5% of participants overall, including 20.4% of those classified as low clinical risk. PRS distribution was variable (low 37.3%, intermediate 35.7%, high 27.0%). Overlap between anatomical, genetic, and clinical domains was limited, with only 8.7% of participants classified as high risk across all three. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial heterogeneity and limited overlap exist between anatomical, genetic, and clinical cardiovascular risk measures in T2D. These findings support a multimodal approach to risk assessment integrating imaging and genetic profiling. TRIAL REGISTRATION: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; ID: NCT07091162.

Aged↗

PubMed2026

Prognostic Value of Frailty in Aortic Surgery: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Comparing Frailty Assessment Tools.

BACKGROUND: Frailty is increasingly recognized as an important determinant of outcomes after aortic vascular surgery, but assessment methods vary substantially and the optimal tool for risk stratification remains uncertain. This systematic review and meta-analysis evaluated the prognostic value of preoperative frailty and compared the predictive performance of different frailty instruments in aortic surgery. METHODS: PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library were searched from inception to April 27, 2026. Eligible studies included patients undergoing open, endovascular, or hybrid aortic procedures involving abdominal, thoracic, thoracoabdominal, arch, and proximal aortic diseases, including aneurysms and dissections, assessed frailty preoperatively, and reported postoperative outcomes. RESULTS: Thirty studies comprising 419,459 patients were included. Frailty was associated with higher early mortality (odds ratio [OR] 2.20; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.54-3.14) and late mortality (hazard ratio 2.18; 95% CI 1.64-2.90). Frail patients also had increased risks of major complications (OR 2.52; 95% CI 1.22-5.19), acute kidney injury (OR 1.64; 95% CI 1.34-2.02), and nonhome discharge (OR 5.50; 95% CI 3.05-9.92). Associations were consistent across surgical approaches and aortic segments. Judgment-based or phenotype-like tools yielded higher effect estimates than deficit-accumulation indices, although differences were not statistically significant; among index-based tools, Modified Frailty Index (mFI)-11 outperformed mFI-5. CONCLUSION: Preoperative frailty strongly predicts mortality, morbidity, and loss of functional independence after open, endovascular, and hybrid aortic surgery across different aortic segments and pathologies, including aneurysmal and dissecting aortic disease. Routine frailty assessment may improve risk stratification and perioperative decision-making.

Humans↗

PubMed2025

Quantitative Outcomes for Shared Assessment and Management in Forensic Mental Health: A Meta-Analysis and Systematic Review.

Despite leading models of mental health care encouraging user involvement, users in forensic mental health (FMH) report poor involvement given the difficulty in reconciling shared approaches with risk-averse and legally mandated settings. While previous research has demonstrated qualitative benefits to shared approaches in FMH and has led to a proliferation of self-rated assessment tools, there remains to quantify agreement on self-rated tools and to clarify the impact of shared approaches on care. This meta-analysis examines (1) the correlation between clinician and user ratings, (2) the predictive validity of self-ratings for violence, and (3) the effects of shared risk management on violence and restriction in FMH. Five databases were searched from inception to April 2024, selecting for adult FMH inpatients, shared risk assessment, needs assessment or violence management as interventions, and quantitative outcomes (correlation, agreement, predictive validity, and effect on violence or restriction rates). Fifteen quantitative evaluations were retained. One of three planned meta-analyses could be conducted, with seven records providing paired clinician-user t-tests. Eleven more records provided clinical recommendations on operationalizing shared approaches. Random-effects meta-analysis showed a significant and large paired standard difference of .95 (95% CI = [.49,1.42]) across tools, with significant differences in DUNDRUM-3, DUNDRUM-4, and CANFOR sub-models. While acknowledging between-study heterogeneity, results substantiate quantitative differences where clinicians generally rate more needs and lesser progress than users across tools, showing that self-ratings can and should be used to broach collaborative discussions on needs and progress during FMH treatment. There remains an evidence gap for quantitative benefits in care outcomes and a need to standardize agreement measures for future comparisons and clinical sub-group analyses.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Risk stratification in aortic stenosis: exercise haemodynamics to refine risk in early cardiac damage stages.

AIMS: To describe exercise haemodynamics across cardiac damage stages and evaluate the incremental prognostic impact of cardiac damage stage and exercise-induced pulmonary hypertension (exPHT) in patients with symptomatic moderate aortic stenosis (AS) and asymptomatic severe AS. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 436 consecutive patients with ≥ moderate AS (74 ± 10 years, 32% women, 56% severe AS) underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing with echocardiography. The primary endpoint was heart failure (HF) death and HF hospitalizations. Cardiac damage stage was 0 in 93 patients, 1 (LV damage) in 135, 2 (LA/mitral damage) in 135, and 3-4 (pulmonary vasculature/tricuspid or RV damage) in 73. Higher stages were associated with worse exercise capacity and haemodynamics. Over a median follow-up of 37 months, 65 patients met the primary endpoint. After adjustment for age, AS severity, and aortic valve replacement, cardiac damage stage and exPHT were independently associated with HF outcomes [HR per stage increase 1.51 (1.26-1.82); P < 0.001; exPHT HR 2.36 (1.10-5.07); P = 0.03]. exPHT improved risk stratification in early-stage disease (stages 1-2), conferring an approximately five-fold higher risk of HF events in patients with exPHT [HR 4.45 (1.58-12.59); P < 0.01]. CONCLUSION: In patients with ≥ moderate AS and discordant symptoms, cardiac damage stage and exPHT independently refined HF risk stratification. ExPHT provides incremental prognostic value in early damage stages (1-2), representing over half of the cohort, supporting a stepwise approach of routine damage staging with selective with exPHT assessment with exercise echocardiography in this subgroup to guide more personalized management and potentially optimize AVR timing.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Artificial Intelligence for Diagnosis, Risk Stratification, and Prognosis of Neuroblastoma - A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PURPOSE: To synthesizes evidence on artificial intelligence (AI) performance in neuroblastoma (NB) diagnosis, risk stratification, prognosis, and genomic characterization. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted following PRISMA 2020 guidelines (PROSPERO: CRD42024539475) across five databases. Meta-analyses used random-effects models with logit-transformed Area Under the Curve (AUCs) and cluster-robust standard errors. AI models were classified as Machine Learning Models (MLM) or Hybrid Nomograms (HN) based on their construction methodology. RESULTS: Of 3,742 articles identified, 53 were included. MLMs demonstrated higher point estimates than radiologists in differential diagnosis (AUC: 0.87 vs. 0.83), though this difference was not statistically significant and carried substantial uncertainty. HNs achieved stronger performance in risk stratification (AUC: 0.87). AI-derived nomograms (AUC: 0.9) and gene signatures (AUC: 0.8) outperformed conventional prognostic markers descriptively. Chemotherapy response prediction remained below clinical utility thresholds across all model types. Only 33.9% of models reported calibration and 24.5% underwent external validation. CONCLUSIONS: AI demonstrates proof-of-concept across multiple NB clinical domains. However, clinical adoption remains premature given persistent gaps in external validation, calibration, dataset size, and pediatric-specific model development. Future studies should test these models prospectively in multicenter pediatric cohorts, ideally through COG or SIOPEN, using shared definitions for diagnosis, risk group, treatment response, and survival outcomes.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

The effect of monetary versus point-based rewards on effort-cost decision making in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis.

OBJECTIVE: The dissemination of inexpensive computerized behavioral tasks indexing amotivation may enhance the assessment of clinical high risk (CHR) across settings. However, the impact of varying reward value in such tasks is unclear. If point-based rewards engage participants, this could improve the scalability of computerized assessments. We tested how point-based rewards versus money impacted effort-cost decision-making in CHR individuals. We further assessed how negative symptom severity and household income interacted with reward-type to impact behavior. METHODS: Participants completed the Effort Expenditure for Reward Task (EEfRT). Participants were randomly assigned to receive either money or points for their performance during the EEfRT. Data from a large sample of CHR (N = 233) individuals and healthy controls (HC; N = 157) were collected. RESULTS: Across diagnostic groups, we observed heightened effort expenditure when money was used as a reward (b = 0.13, p = 0.018). We did not find an interaction of CHR status (b = 0.07, p = 0.845) or negative symptoms (b = 0.01, p = 0.429) with reward-type. Within CHR individuals, heightened negative symptom severity was associated with reduced expended effort (b = -0.03, p = 0.016), regardless of reward type. In an exploratory analysis, we found that individuals in the money condition with relatively high household income expended less effort during high reward, high probability trials (b = -0.24, p = 0.046). CONCLUSIONS: Across CHR and HC individuals, individuals pursuing money expended greater effort. While we did not find a group by reward type interaction, CHR individuals with heightened negative symptom severity expended less effort across trials, replicating prior work. Present findings support further study of point-based rewards in tasks indexing amotivation.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Predicting ACL injury risk in athletes: A systematic review of machine learning-based models.

BACKGROUND: Early ACL injury risk identification in athletes is essential. This systematic review examines machine learning (ML) models for predicting ACL injuries, evaluating their methodological quality, performance, and reliability. METHOD: A comprehensive electronic search was conducted across PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and IEEE Xplore databases, supplemented by Google Scholar for grey literature, covering articles published between January 1, 2015, and August 30, 2025. Eligible studies were appraised using the Prediction Model Study Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) for methodological quality and risk of bias, and the Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines for quality of evidence. RESULTS: Ten studies were included. PROBAST showed eight studies had moderate risk of bias and two low risk. TRIPOD found only two studies met quality criteria. ML models included logistic regression (n = 5), support vector machines (n = 4), k-nearest neighbor (n = 3), decision trees (n = 3), random forests (n = 5), neural networks (n = 2), linear discriminant analysis (n = 1), and pre-trained CNNs (n = 1). AUC ranged from 0.63 to 0.98. Accuracy (reported in six studies) ranged from 26% to 95%; however, these values should be interpreted with caution due to the absence of confidence intervals, lack of class imbalance handling, and limited external validation across studies. Tree-based ensemble methods such as random forest achieved competitive accuracy (74-86%), while SVM, a non-ensemble classifier, reported accuracy ranging from 71% to 95%; however, the highest values were obtained in studies with notably small sample sizes (n = 12 to n = 39), raising concerns about overfitting and generalizability. CONCLUSION: Current ML algorithms show promise for identifying athletes at high ACL injury risk and detecting relevant risk factors. Although study quality was generally satisfactory, future research should prioritize external validation and model interpretability to support clinical translation.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Acute and chronic effects of mixed nuts on energy metabolism in women at cardiometabolic risk: a randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The effect of consuming a mix of Brazilian nuts on energy metabolism has not been explored. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate the effects of acute and chronic consumption of mixed nuts on markers of energy metabolism in women with overweight/obesity. METHODS AND RESULTS: This is a randomized, controlled, and parallel clinical trial with adult women. In an acute study, participants received a beverage containing mixed nuts (30 g of cashew nuts + 15 g of Brazil nuts) or a control beverage, and energy metabolism markers were assessed for up to 3 h postprandially. For the chronic study, participants received 45 g of a mix of nuts/day and a -500kcal energy-restricted diet (MNG) or only a -500kcal energy-restricted diet free of nuts (CTG) for 8 weeks, and energy metabolism was assessed before and after the intervention period. In the postprandial period, fat oxidation was higher in the MNG than in the CTG (piAUC: 47.53 ± 5.78 mg/min vs. 27.93 ± 6.98 mg/min; p = 0.048). After 8 weeks of the intervention, fasting fat oxidation increased in the MNG (+16.0 ± 7.0 mg/min) and decreased in the CTG (-5.0 ± 6.0 mg/min), with no significant difference between groups. Other acute and chronic markers also showed no significant changes between groups. CONCLUSION: The acute consumption of mixed nuts increased postprandial fat oxidation, whereas chronic intake within an energy-restricted diet did not affect energy metabolism markers in women at cardiometabolic risk. REGISTRATION NUMBER FOR BRAZILIAN REGISTRY OF CLINICAL TRIALS: RBR-3ntxrm.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Emerging hantavirus risks in mass gatherings: epidemiology, diagnostic challenges, and outbreak preparedness.

Hantaviruses are emerging rodent borne zoonotic pathogens of increasing global public health concern because of their high mortality, expanding ecological distribution, and potential for international dissemination. Although traditionally associated with sporadic rural outbreaks, recent ecological disruption, climate variability, urbanization, and increased global mobility have heightened concerns regarding hantavirus risks in mass gathering settings. This review critically examines the epidemiology, transmission uncertainty, diagnostic and surveillance challenges, and preparedness strategies related to hantavirus infections in the context of mass gatherings, including religious events, refugee settlements, cruise tourism, sporting events, and temporary accommodations. Particular emphasis is placed on the 2026 multinational cruise ship associated outbreak linked to the MV Hondius, which highlighted vulnerabilities related to delayed diagnosis, international passenger dispersal, and uncertainties surrounding possible human to human transmission of Andes virus. Current evidence indicates that hantavirus transmission occurs primarily through inhalation of aerosolized rodent excreta; however, controversies regarding limited interpersonal transmission, environmental persistence, and asymptomatic infections continue to complicate risk assessment and outbreak preparedness. Diagnostic limitations, underreporting, insufficient environmental surveillance, and lack of mass gathering specific preparedness frameworks remain major public health challenges, especially in resource limited settings. Strengthening proactive preparedness through integrated One Health approaches, ecological surveillance, genomic monitoring, AI driven epidemic intelligence, and coordinated international response systems is essential for mitigating future risks. The review emphasizes the urgent need for multidisciplinary research and evidence based policy development to improve global preparedness against emerging hantavirus associated threats in increasingly interconnected mass gathering environments.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Externally validated risk prediction models for gestational diabetes mellitus: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Risk prediction models for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) offer potential for early identification and targeted prevention. External validation is crucial to assess model performance across diverse populations. Despite the availability of numerous GDM prediction models, limited evidence exists on their external validation frequency, methodological quality, and clinical applicability. This systematic review evaluated externally validated GDM prediction models, focusing on methodological rigor, reporting standards, and clinical relevance to inform future research and implementation. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Databases including Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, Emcare, and CINAHL were searched up to May 1, 2025. Studies reporting external validation of GDM risk prediction models were included. Two reviewers independently screened studies. Data were extracted using the CHARMS framework, and risk of bias and applicability were assessed using PROBAST+AI. The study protocol was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO; CRD420251125758). RESULTS: Twenty-six studies validated 33 models, with validation sample sizes ranging from 50 to 75 161. Over half used the IADPSG criteria to define GDM. Discrimination metrics were commonly reported, but calibration, overall performance, and clinical utility were often lacking. Meta-analysis was feasible for only four models: Teede et al., Nanda et al., Naylor et al., and Van Leeuwen et al., each showing fair discrimination. The Teede et al. model was the most widely validated, with 11 external validations across six continents and a pooled AUC of 0.72 (95% CI: 0.67-0.76). Despite fewer validations, the Nanda et al. model achieved the highest pooled discrimination (5 validations; pooled AUC 0.77, 95% CI: 0.74-0.80). The Naylor et al. and van Leeuwen et al. models also underwent meta-analysis, as sufficient external validation studies were available to support comparative performance assessment. Notably, 69.23% of studies had a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: While many models showed acceptable predictive performance, most validations were methodologically weak. Future studies should follow best-practice guidelines and promote scalable validation strategies, such as algorithm sharing, to enhance clinical utility.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Risk of stroke in SLE: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

UNLABELLED: The association between SLE and composite stroke, ischaemic stroke and haemorrhagic stroke remains incompletely understood. This meta-analysis aims to assess the risk of stroke in patients with SLE. METHODS: Data sources included PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Library and reference lists of included studies. This meta-analysis included cohort studies evaluating whether stroke risk is associated with SLE. The risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale (NOS). Risk ratios (RRs) with 95% CIs were pooled using a random-effects model, and publication bias was assessed with funnel plots and Egger's test. RESULTS: A total of 25 cohort studies involving 5 220 837 individuals were included in this meta-analysis, which were published between 2001 and 2026. The pooled analysis demonstrated a significantly increased risk of stroke in patients with SLE (RR of 2.60, 95% CI 2.21 to 3.05, I²=97.9%, p<0.001). The risk of composite stroke (RR of 2.83, 95% CI 2.25 to 3.57, I²=98.0%, p<0.001), ischaemic stroke (RR of 2.34, 95% CI 1.75 to 3.12, I²=97.6%, p<0.001) and haemorrhagic stroke (RR of 2.66, 95% CI 1.57 to 4.49, I²=96.2%, p<0.001) was also increased in SLE. Despite the large heterogeneity, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the results were robust, and there was little evidence of publication bias. CONCLUSION: The risk of composite stroke, ischaemic stroke and haemorrhagic stroke is increased in SLE. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD420261294082.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

High-Flow Nasal Oxygen and the Risk of Gastric Insufflation: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Supplemented by Narrative Synthesis.

High-flow nasal oxygen (HFNO) generates positive airway pressure, raising concerns about gastric insufflation and aspiration risk. Although most studies report minimal or no gastric distension, some suggest significant changes. This systematic review and meta-analysis applied the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) framework to evaluate the effect of HFNO on gastric insufflation and related markers across clinical settings. We searched Medline, Embase, Emcare, and CINAHL through August 2025 for studies reporting qualitative or quantitative markers of gastric insufflation during HFNO use, including comet-tail artifacts, antral cross-sectional area, and gastric volume. Eligible designs included randomized trials, observational and volunteer studies, and case reports. Methodological quality was evaluated using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool, and certainty of evidence was rated with GRADE. Meta-analysis was performed for outcomes reported in two or more studies. Six randomized trials, five observational studies, two volunteer studies, one case series, and two case reports were included. Observational studies primarily assessed outcomes before and after HFNO intervention. Pooled analysis of four randomized controlled trials (RCTs; n = 375) showed HFNO significantly reduced gastric insufflation compared with face-mask ventilation during elective peri-intubation (risk ratios [RR] = 0.32; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.19-0.52; P < .00001; I 2 = 0%), rated moderate-certainty. For antral cross-sectional area, pooled analysis of three RCTs (n = 318) found no significant difference between HFNO and face-mask ventilation (MD -0.33 cm 2 ; 95% CI, -0.72 to 0.05; P = .09; I 2 = 74%), rated moderate-certainty. Observational studies assessing pre- and post-HFNO changes showed no significant increase in antral cross-sectional area (MD 0.08 cm 2 ; 95% CI, -0.29 to 0.45; P = .67; I 2 = 0%) and no significant change in gastric liquid volume (MD -0.01 ml/kg; 95% CI, -0.07 to 0.06; P = .80; I 2 = 0%), both rated low certainty. Nonpooled data suggested possible increases in critically ill patients, but the evidence was of very low certainty. A single study assessing microaspiration found HFNO reduced gastroesophageal reflux and prevented microaspiration compared with face-mask ventilation. No clinically significant aspiration events were reported across studies. Moderate-certainty evidence supports HFNO as safe regarding gastric insufflation and antral cross-sectional area in most elective and procedural contexts. Low-certainty evidence suggests no increase in gastric volume. Caution is warranted due to limited, low-to-very-low-certainty evidence at higher flow rates and among critically ill patients. Larger multicenter trials and robust observational studies are necessary to confirm safety in these settings.

Humans↗