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PubMed2026

Assessment of the Potential of Different Anthropometric Indices in Predicting the Risk of Diabetes and Associated Co-morbidities.

Diabetes, a chronic disorder, is showing a rapidly increasing trend globally. India holds the second position in the global diabetes epidemic. The present investigation is an assessment of different anthropometric measurements and their association with type 2 diabetes to determine their diagnostic potential for diabetes as well as its co-morbidities. In this cross-sectional study, we have measured anthropometric parameters and blood biomarkers in subjects with diabetes. We have presented the comparisons of cost- and time-effective anthropometric variable with costly and time-dependent biochemical variables in control and diabetic groups (n = 233/group). Correlations between anthropometric variables and biochemical measurements, as well as the diagnostic utility of anthropometric variables for diabetes, were evaluated. The diagnostic utility of anthropometric variables for diabetes was assessed through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Neck circumference, sagittal abdominal diameter (SAD), skinfold thickness, and body roundness index (BRI) displayed high specificity and diagnostic utility for diabetes, emphasizing their potential in predicting diabetes and the further development of metabolic syndrome. The study highlights the importance of cost- and time-effective anthropometric assessments in diabetes risk evaluation and calls for further research to elucidate this intricate relationship and develop personalized management strategies.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Mapping Wastewater Pathogens and Their Associated Environmental and Public Health Risk Factors: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has emerged as a critical tool for public health surveillance, yet its application across diverse pathogens and geographical settings remains inconsistent. This systematic review synthesizes global evidence on wastewater surveillance to identify associated risk factors. METHODS: Following PRISMA 2020 guidelines (PROSPERO: CRD420261297382), a systematic search was conducted across PubMed, Scopus, Google Scholar, and Web of Science for studies published between 2000 and 2025. RESULTS: Thirty-nine peer-reviewed studies were included. The evidence base is geographically skewed toward the European Region (48.7%) and the Americas (23.1%), with significant underrepresentation in LMICs. Viruses were the primary biological target (89.7%), followed by bacteria (7.7%) and parasites (2.6%). A proportion meta-analysis of 31 eligible studies demonstrated a pooled wastewater pathogen detection prevalence of 62% (95% CI: 47.5-74.6%), with the European Region yielding the highest regional estimate (73%) and the African Region the lowest (8.3%). Conventional PCR and sequencing methods showed higher pooled detection rates (92.4% and 90.1%, respectively) than RT-qPCR (47.9%). CONCLUSION: WBE provides a robust early-warning system indicating a need for broader pathogen diversity, incorporating bacterial and parasitic surveillance and expansion into rural and resource-limited regions.

Contamination↗

PubMed2026

Risk of mortality and complications in people with depressive disorder and co-occurring diabetes mellitus: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIMS: People with depressive disorder have increased premature mortality and higher rates of diabetes mellitus than general population. Evidence shows that diabetes may further increase their risk of premature death from diabetes-related complications, especially cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Earlier studies examining depression-associated outcomes in diabetes patients have shown mixed results and were hindered by important limitations, especially the use of self-reported questionnaires to ascertain depression, causing misclassification bias by identifying subclinical symptoms or diabetes distress. Associations of depression with specific diabetes complications have not been systematically evaluated. This meta-analysis aimed to investigate the risk of mortality and complications among patients with depression and co-occurring diabetes (depression-diabetes group) relative to patients with diabetes-only (diabetes-only group), on their all-cause mortality rates, and if applicable cause-specific mortality rates, and occurrence of specific diabetes complications. METHODS: We systematically reviewed and quantitatively synthesized diabetes-related outcomes in patients with depression by searching Embase, MEDLINE, PsycInfo and Web-of-Science from inception to 20 December 2024, and included studies that examined mortality and complication outcomes in depression-diabetes group relative to diabetes-only group. Results were synthesized by random-effects meta-analytic models, with stratified-analyses (subgroup analyses and meta-regression) by study-level characteristics, including age, gender, study period, geographic region, follow-up duration and nature of diabetes sample. The study was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42024595145). RESULTS: Twenty-six studies were identified from nine geographic regions. Regarding mortality risk, depression-diabetes group exhibited increased risks of all-cause mortality (RR = 1.30 [95% CI: 1.21-1.39]) and CVD-specific mortality (1.15 [1.02-1.29]) relative to diabetes-only group. Regarding complication risk, depression-diabetes group showed increased risk of complications (1.28 [1.18-1.40]) relative to diabetes-only group, especially in incident-diabetes sample signifying advanced disease stage upon presentation, with stratified-analyses showing higher risk of metabolic complications (1.63 [1.33-1.99]) and cardiovascular complications (1.20 [1.11-1.29]), and lower likelihood of retinopathy (0.84 [0.76-0.94]), albeit comparable rates of cerebrovascular complications (1.36 [0.99-1.87]), nephropathy (1.09 [0.93-1.27]) and peripheral-vascular complications (0.97 [0.79-1.18]). Both overall mortality and complication risks were present in various regions and persisted over time. Heterogeneities were noted and could not be entirely explained by stratified analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrated that patients with depression and co-occurring diabetes were associated with elevated overall mortality risk and complication risk (particularly metabolic and cardiovascular-complications) than non-depressed counterparts, suggesting an overall poorer glycemic control that might eventually drive their earlier death. Comprehensive and multipronged interventions are needed for individualized risk estimation of diabetes-related outcomes, with consequent early interventions to minimize the avoidable physical morbidity and premature mortality in this vulnerable population.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

A Dynamic Nomogram to Predict Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Fatty Liver Disease in Patients with Metabolic Syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) involves multiple metabolic disorders. This study aimed to identify high-risk populations for metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) in patients with MetS and to establish a dynamic predictive nomogram. METHODS: A total of 627 patients with MetS from six regions in Zhejiang Province were enrolled and categorized into MAFLD and non-MAFLD groups, then randomly assigned to training and validation sets at a ratio of 7:3. Independent predictors of MAFLD were identified using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and multivariable logistic regression analyses. These predictors were then used to construct a dynamic nomogram. RESULTS: A total of 627 patients with MetS were included in the final analysis, of whom 77.0% (483/627) were diagnosed with MAFLD. Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), total cholesterol (TC), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), MetS-defined dysglycemia, and education level as independent risk factors for MAFLD. MetS-defined dysglycemia showed the highest odds ratio (OR) for MAFLD development [OR = 1.87, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07-3.29]. Although the number of MetS components and the metabolic syndrome score were significantly associated with MAFLD in univariate analysis, they were not independently associated with MAFLD in the multivariate model. A dynamic nomogram for predicting MAFLD risk in patients with MetS was developed and internally validated. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.834 (95% CI: 0.787-0.880) in the training set and 0.839 (95% CI: 0.771-0.899) in the validation set, indicating strong predictive performance. Bootstrap internal validation demonstrated good agreement between predicted and observed outcomes in calibration curves. Decision curve analysis further indicated favorable clinical applicability of the nomogram. CONCLUSION: BMI, WC, TC, ALT, MetS-defined dysglycemia, and education level are independent risk factors for MAFLD. A dynamic nomogram for predicting MAFLD risk in patients with MetS was successfully developed and validated.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

The effect of monetary versus point-based rewards on effort-cost decision making in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis.

OBJECTIVE: The dissemination of inexpensive computerized behavioral tasks indexing amotivation may enhance the assessment of clinical high risk (CHR) across settings. However, the impact of varying reward value in such tasks is unclear. If point-based rewards engage participants, this could improve the scalability of computerized assessments. We tested how point-based rewards versus money impacted effort-cost decision-making in CHR individuals. We further assessed how negative symptom severity and household income interacted with reward-type to impact behavior. METHODS: Participants completed the Effort Expenditure for Reward Task (EEfRT). Participants were randomly assigned to receive either money or points for their performance during the EEfRT. Data from a large sample of CHR (N = 233) individuals and healthy controls (HC; N = 157) were collected. RESULTS: Across diagnostic groups, we observed heightened effort expenditure when money was used as a reward (b = 0.13, p = 0.018). We did not find an interaction of CHR status (b = 0.07, p = 0.845) or negative symptoms (b = 0.01, p = 0.429) with reward-type. Within CHR individuals, heightened negative symptom severity was associated with reduced expended effort (b = -0.03, p = 0.016), regardless of reward type. In an exploratory analysis, we found that individuals in the money condition with relatively high household income expended less effort during high reward, high probability trials (b = -0.24, p = 0.046). CONCLUSIONS: Across CHR and HC individuals, individuals pursuing money expended greater effort. While we did not find a group by reward type interaction, CHR individuals with heightened negative symptom severity expended less effort across trials, replicating prior work. Present findings support further study of point-based rewards in tasks indexing amotivation.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Nasopharyngeal Carriage Rate, Risk Factors, and Co-Resistance Patterns of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus in Ethiopia: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) nasopharyngeal carriage is a major global health concern linked to severe infections and transmission. However, comprehensive evidence on the burden of MRSA carriage, antimicrobial resistance, and associated risk factors in Ethiopia remains limited. This study aimed to estimate pooled prevalence, resistance pattern, and determinants of nasopharyngeal MRSA carriage. PubMed, ScienceDirect, Scopus, Web of Science, Google Scholar, and gray literature were searched for cross-sectional studies published between January 2015 and December 2025. Two groups of reviewers screened studies based on predefined criteria. The risk of bias was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute tool. Pooled prevalence and resistance proportions were estimated using a random-effects model, and pooled odds ratios (ORs) were calculated using the Mantel-Haenszel method. Heterogeneity and publication bias were assessed, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted. A total of 1040 records were identified, and 20 studies (6869 participants) were included. The pooled carriage prevalence was 7.3% (95% CI, 5.0-10.8), with substantial heterogeneity (I2 = 95.5%). Resistance was highest to tetracycline (55.75%) and lowest to clindamycin (12.66%). Increased odds of carriage were associated with prior hospitalization (OR, 3.49) and antibiotic use (OR, 2.35). Inconsistent variable coding across included studies limited the inclusion of other potential risk factors. Evidence of publication bias was detected, suggesting that the pooled prevalence should be interpreted with appropriate caution. The findings indicate a considerable burden of MRSA and highlight the need for strengthened antimicrobial stewardship, improved surveillance, and targeted prevention efforts in higher-risk populations. This review was registered in PROSPERO (CRD420251047192).

Ethiopia↗

PubMed2026

Role of Polygenic Risk Scores in Predicting Cognitive Functioning after Mild Traumatic Brain Injury: A TRACK-TBI Study.

Patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) and Glasgow Coma Scale scores of 13-15 (historically called mild TBI [mTBI]) commonly experience changes in cognitive functioning, including processing speed, memory, and executive functioning. In a prospective sample (N = 523) of individuals of European descent who had been treated in a U.S. level 1 trauma center for mTBI, we examined the prognostic value of four polygenic risk scores (PRS) for cognitive outcomes at 6-months postinjury. To estimate the impact of mTBI on cognition, primary cognitive outcomes were scaled as z-scores reflecting changes in performance relative to predicted preinjury performance. The PRS examined were previously developed and validated to predict cognition-related outcomes of educational attainment (Education-PRS), intelligence (Intelligence-PRS), and Alzheimer's disease (AD-mild traumatic brain injury (APOE)-PRS and AD + APOE-PRS). Both the Education-PRS and Intelligence-PRS displayed bivariate associations with all four cognitive outcomes (β = 0.19-0.32), whereas neither Alzheimer's disease PRS was significantly associated with any outcome. After controlling for other factors known to predict cognitive outcomes of TBI (e.g., sex, education, mTBI severity defined by a combination of Glasgow Coma Scale scores and the presence/absence of acute intracranial findings on clinical neuroimaging), the Education-PRS and Intelligence-PRS remained independently predictive of verbal episodic memory (β = 0.10-0.16), whereas their associations with processing speed and executive functioning were mostly nonsignificant and were mediated through educational attainment. Looking across primary z-score and secondary raw score outcomes, cognitive outcomes 6 months post-mTBI were good on average, and PRS made small independent contributions to outcome prediction. The mediation model findings may support theories of cognitive reserve, which propose that individuals with stronger preinjury cognitive processing abilities (often estimated by educational history) can better compensate for TBI. Moreover, findings indicate that PRS may contribute modestly to multivariable models predicting cognitive function after TBI.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Sex-stratified analyses of femoral intercondylar notch morphology and ACL injury risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury is more common in females. Although ACL injury risk is multifactorial, involving neuromuscular, hormonal, and biomechanical factors, femoral intercondylar notch morphology is a proposed non-modifiable anatomical contributor that may help explain this disparity. This review synthesizes evidence on its association with ACL injury risk, analyses stratified by male and female sex. METHODS: A literature search of PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus was conducted through January 2026. After duplicate removal, 527 unique records were screened and 134 full texts assessed for eligibility. Twenty-four studies met inclusion criteria, with 22 providing quantitative data. Data were extracted on ACL-injured (ACLi) and control (ACLc) knees, stratified by sex. RESULTS: ACLi knees had narrower notch widths than ACLc knees in both females (MD -1.74 mm, 95% CI -2.54 to -0.95) and males (MD -1.31 mm, 95% CI -1.94 to -0.68), with substantial heterogeneity (I2 81-95%). NWI differences were significant in males (MD -0.01, 95% CI -0.02 to 0.00) but not females. Limited notch shape data suggested higher ACL injury odds with A-shaped notches in females (OR 2.85, 95% CI 0.07-110.66) and males (OR 1.67, 95% CI 0.00-3.98 × 105). CONCLUSION: Narrower femoral intercondylar notch width was consistently associated with ACL injury in both sexes, whereas findings for NWI and notch shape were limited by heterogeneity and sparse data. These results provide a structured synthesis of sex-specific anatomical risk factors and support femoral notch narrowing as a shared contributor, while highlighting the need for prospective, standardized studies in the future.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Extreme Temperature and Incident Diabetes Risk Among Middle-Aged and Older Adults in China: A National Longitudinal Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The metabolic consequences of extreme temperature exposure in nondiabetic populations remain poorly understood. This study aimed to examine associations between heatwave and coldwave exposure and incident diabetes mellitus (DM) and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) in middle-aged and older Chinese adults. METHODS: A total of 1803 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study participants aged ≥45 years with normoglycemia at baseline were followed from Wave 1 (2011) to Wave 3 (2015). Eighteen extreme-temperature indicators were derived from city-level fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis data. Outcomes were classified according to American Diabetes Association criteria. Generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMMs) were pooled across five imputed datasets, with Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons (α = 0.0028) and sensitivity analysis adjusting for individual follow-up duration. RESULTS: All nine heatwave indicators showed odds ratios (ORs) < 1.0 for DM and IGT. HT9 (≥97.5th percentile, ≥4 consecutive days) was the sole Bonferroni-significant result: OR = 0.845 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.802-0.890). Coldwave indicators showed no consistent associations. Age significantly modified the HT9 effect (P-interaction = 0.004): adults aged 65-84 showed a stronger inverse association (OR = 0.616) than those aged < 65 (OR = 0.921). CONCLUSION: Prolonged heatwave exposure was consistently associated with reduced diabetes risk, with pronounced age heterogeneity. Replication in larger prospective studies is warranted.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Risk factors for loss of skeletal muscle mass in patients with chronic kidney disease on a low-protein diet.

OBJECTIVES: A low-protein diet (LPD) is recommended for patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) to prevent a further decline in renal function. However, its impact on muscle mass in these patients remains unclear. This study investigated the risk factors for loss of muscle mass in patients with CKD on an LPD. METHODS: Eighty-four patients with predialysis CKD (59 men, mean age 61.9 ± 11.5 y) who participated in a multicenter randomized controlled trial initiated in 2014 were retrospectively reviewed. We collected data on baseline blood and urine tests, body composition, and dietary records at the start and end of the observation period. We evaluated muscle mass using the skeletal muscle index (SMI) and analyzed risk factors for a decrease in SMI during the 24-wk observation period, using logistic regression analysis. Variables with an association (P < 0.1) in univariate analysis, as well as age, sex, use of low-protein rice, and changes in protein intake, were subjected to multivariate analysis. RESULTS: SMI decreased in 50 patients (59.5%) during the observation period. Multivariate analysis identified significant associations of the SMI with serum albumin at baseline (odds ratio 0.11, 95% confidence interval 0.02-0.52, P = 0.004) and changes in energy intake while on the LPD (odds ratio 3.39, 95% confidence interval 1.00-11.43, P = 0.049). CONCLUSIONS: Risk factors for reduced SMI in patients with CKD on an LPD were malnutrition when initiating the LPD and reduced energy intake during its implementation. Clinicians should optimize nutritional status before initiation of an LPD and ensure adequate energy intake throughout treatment.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Maternal Intake of Vitamins A, C, D, and E During Pregnancy and Risk of Type 1 Diabetes in the Child: The Norwegian Mother, Father, and Child Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Dietary vitamins play a role in antioxidant defense and immunoregulation. However, prospective studies exploring the association between vitamin intakes during pregnancy and the child's risk of type 1 diabetes are limited. OBJECTIVES: This population-based prospective cohort study aimed to investigate the association between maternal intake of vitamins A, C, D, and E during pregnancy and risk of type 1 diabetes in children. METHODS: We included 85,244 children born between 2002 and 2009 in the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study, with follow-up until 31 December, 2021. Maternal intake of vitamins from food and dietary supplements from conception to the 22nd week of pregnancy was assessed with a validated food frequency questionnaire. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs), adjusting for background factors. RESULTS: During follow-up, 529 (0.6%) children were diagnosed with type 1 diabetes at a mean age of 9.4 y (standard deviation: 4.1 y) No associations were observed between maternal pregnancy intake of vitamin A [HR: 0.993; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.983, 1.003/100 μg], vitamin C (HR: 1.000; 95% CI: 0.993, 1.007/10 mg), vitamin D (HR: 0.991; 95% CI: 0.978, 1.003/1 μg), or vitamin E (HR: 0.999; 95% CI: 0.996, 1.004/10 mg) and risk of type 1 diabetes in the child when adjusted for potential confounders. The results were similar when intakes were assessed separately from food and dietary supplements and after restriction to children with human leukocyte antigen DQ2 and/or DQ8 risk haplotypes. CONCLUSIONS: This prospective cohort study does not support the hypothesis that higher maternal intake of vitamins A, C, D, and E during pregnancy would decrease risk of type 1 diabetes in the child. Corroborated with previous evidence, our findings support a general pattern of null associations.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Efficacy and Safety of Rivaroxaban in Patients with Peripheral Artery Disease: A GRADE-assessed Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Peripheral artery disease (PAD) is a common atherosclerotic disorder characterized by progressive arterial narrowing in the limbs. This study aims to determine the efficacy and safety of rivaroxaban, focusing on major cardiovascular events, limb outcomes, and bleeding risks. METHODS: PubMed, Cochrane, and EMBASE were searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and nonrandomized comparative studies that compared rivaroxaban, either alone or in combination with aspirin, to placebo or standard care such as antiplatelet therapy. Risk ratios and hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals were pooled using R v4.5.1 with an appropriate random-effects model applied. Subgroup analyses were performed according to rivaroxaban plus aspirin versus rivaroxaban alone. RESULTS: A total of 39,991 participants across 6 studies were included. Compared with control, use of rivaroxaban was linked to a significant reduction in composite efficacy outcomes (relative risk [RR] = 0.84, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.78-0.91, P < 0.001), risk of acute limb ischemia (RR = 0.65, 95% CI 0.55-0.78, P < 0.001), and thromboembolism (RR = 0.60, 95% CI 0.38-0.97, P = 0.037). Although rivaroxaban plus aspirin failed to show a significant reduction in the risk of amputation, rivaroxaban alone reported a significant risk reduction (RR = 0.50, 95% CI 0.30-0.85, P = 0.003). However, its use was associated with a significantly higher risk of major bleeding (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.54, 95% CI 1.38-1.72, P < 0.001) and International Society on Thrombosis and Hemostasis-defined bleeding (RR = 1.45, 95% CI 1.19-1.76, P < 0.001). No significant differences were observed for stroke, myocardial infarction, major adverse limb events, fatal bleeding, mortality, or cardiovascular mortality. CONCLUSION: Rivaroxaban-based therapy reduced the trial-defined composite efficacy outcome, acute limb ischemia, and thromboembolism in patients with PAD, but increased the risk of major bleeding. These findings support individualized use of rivaroxaban-based therapy in carefully selected patients, balancing ischemic and limb-protective benefits against bleeding risk.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Comparative safety of lipid-lowering drugs alone or in combination: insights from a systematic review and network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Although the safety profile of lipid-lowering therapies (LLTs) is known, there are no comprehensive comparative assessments. We aimed to compare the risk of muscle-related events, diabetes, liver dysfunction, and cognitive disorders among LLTs through a network meta-analysis. METHODS AND RESULTS: Databases were searched from inception to May 2025. Eligible studies included adult patients, using statins, ezetimibe, PCSK9 monoclonal antibodies (PCSK9mAbs), inclisiran, bempedoic acid, or their combinations as intervention, reporting the information about any of the selected adverse events, a total sample size of ≥200 subjects, and had ≥1 month of intervention. Pooled estimates were assessed by fixed effects model within a frequentist setting. Pooled relative risks (RR) and their 95% confidence interval were estimated. A total of 303,397 subjects from 153 RCTs were included. Bempedoic acid ranked the lowest risk of myalgia (vs PCSK9mAbs, RR 0.80 [0.69, 0.93]). PCSK9mAbs were associated with lower incidence of creatine kinase (CK) elevation, diabetes, and liver dysfunction comparing to statins (statins vs PCSK9mAbs, RR 1.44 [1.14, 1.81], RR 1.13 [1.05, 1.22], and RR 1.38 [1.17, 1.62], respectively). In terms of muscle-related events and cognitive disorders, no significant risk differences were found among treatments and their combinations. CONCLUSIONS: PCSK9mAbs appear to have a more favourable safety profile regarding the risk of CK elevation, diabetes, and liver dysfunction. Bempedoic acid seem to be a better choice for subjects with high risk of myalgia. This information can be valuable when selecting therapy for specific patient subgroups at higher risk of certain adverse events.

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PubMed2026

Externally validated risk prediction models for gestational diabetes mellitus: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Risk prediction models for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) offer potential for early identification and targeted prevention. External validation is crucial to assess model performance across diverse populations. Despite the availability of numerous GDM prediction models, limited evidence exists on their external validation frequency, methodological quality, and clinical applicability. This systematic review evaluated externally validated GDM prediction models, focusing on methodological rigor, reporting standards, and clinical relevance to inform future research and implementation. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Databases including Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, Emcare, and CINAHL were searched up to May 1, 2025. Studies reporting external validation of GDM risk prediction models were included. Two reviewers independently screened studies. Data were extracted using the CHARMS framework, and risk of bias and applicability were assessed using PROBAST+AI. The study protocol was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO; CRD420251125758). RESULTS: Twenty-six studies validated 33 models, with validation sample sizes ranging from 50 to 75 161. Over half used the IADPSG criteria to define GDM. Discrimination metrics were commonly reported, but calibration, overall performance, and clinical utility were often lacking. Meta-analysis was feasible for only four models: Teede et al., Nanda et al., Naylor et al., and Van Leeuwen et al., each showing fair discrimination. The Teede et al. model was the most widely validated, with 11 external validations across six continents and a pooled AUC of 0.72 (95% CI: 0.67-0.76). Despite fewer validations, the Nanda et al. model achieved the highest pooled discrimination (5 validations; pooled AUC 0.77, 95% CI: 0.74-0.80). The Naylor et al. and van Leeuwen et al. models also underwent meta-analysis, as sufficient external validation studies were available to support comparative performance assessment. Notably, 69.23% of studies had a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: While many models showed acceptable predictive performance, most validations were methodologically weak. Future studies should follow best-practice guidelines and promote scalable validation strategies, such as algorithm sharing, to enhance clinical utility.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Time-varying hazard rates reveal patterns of progression in HR+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer: Towards risk-adapted monitoring.

BACKGROUND: optimal imaging intervals for patients with hormone receptor-positive/HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer (MBC) remains undefined. Aim of this study was to analyze the temporal patterns of disease progression to identify high risk subgroups that may benefit from intensified monitoring. METHODS: we analyzed 149 hormone receptor-positive/HER2-negative MBC patients prospectively enrolled in the MAGNETIC.1 trial (NCT05814224) and treated with first line endocrine therapy. Hazard rates (HR) for disease progression were determined according to clinico-pathological and liquid biopsy features. RESULTS: in the overall population, two distinct progression-risk peaks emerged at 2-3 months (32.9/1000 person-months) and at 24 months (28.0/1000). Higher risk of progression was observed in lobular carcinoma (61.1) [HR 61.12 per 1000 person month (pm)], progesterone receptor-negative status (HR 39.07), fulvestrant-based treatment (HR 46.88), liver metastases (HR 59.00), and presence of ≥ 3 metastatic sites (HR 40.10). CONCLUSIONS: Hazard distribution in hormone receptor-positive/HER2-negative MBC is biphasic and modulated by readily available clinical variables. High-risk subgroups may benefit from intensified radiologic and liquid-biopsy surveillance during the first three months and around two years after treatment start.

Breast cancer↗

PubMed2026

Development and Validation of a Predictive Model for Identification of Cognitive Impairment Risk in Older Adults with Subjective Cognitive Decline：A Longitudinal Study.

BACKGROUND: Subjective cognitive decline (SCD) is a transitional state between objective cognitive impairment and cognitively intact mental status, providing a critical window for implementing preventive interventions to delay objective cognitive decline. AIMS: We aimed to develop a predictive model for SCD progression in older adults with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). This model will facilitate the identification of risk factors and establishment of targeted interventions for community-based SCD management. METHODS: Data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) was utilized in this study, extracting 18 indicators. Potential predictors selected through univariate Cox regression and LASSO regression analyses were sequentially incorporated into a multivariable Cox regression model. A nomogram was constructed to establish a predictive model. Model validation encompassed Area Under Curve (AUC) metrics for discriminative capacity, complemented by quantitative assessments using calibration curve analysis for precision verification and decision curve analysis (DCA) for clinical utility evaluation. RESULTS: A total of 1099 older adults with SCD were included in the final analysis, of whom 114 (10.3%) developed MCI. Multivariable Cox regression identified residence, marital status, educational level, social participation, gait speed, and baseline cognitive function. The model demonstrated time-dependent AUC values of 0.885, 0.830, 0.839, and 0.836 in the training set when evaluating discriminative capacity at 2-, 4-, 7-, and 9-year, respectively. The predictive model showed excellent predictive ability according to AUC, calibration curve, and DCA. CONCLUSIONS: A predictive model was created to estimate the risk of developing MCI in older individuals with SCD, offering clinician-actionable intervention benchmarks for preventive care.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

High-Flow Nasal Oxygen and the Risk of Gastric Insufflation: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Supplemented by Narrative Synthesis.

High-flow nasal oxygen (HFNO) generates positive airway pressure, raising concerns about gastric insufflation and aspiration risk. Although most studies report minimal or no gastric distension, some suggest significant changes. This systematic review and meta-analysis applied the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) framework to evaluate the effect of HFNO on gastric insufflation and related markers across clinical settings. We searched Medline, Embase, Emcare, and CINAHL through August 2025 for studies reporting qualitative or quantitative markers of gastric insufflation during HFNO use, including comet-tail artifacts, antral cross-sectional area, and gastric volume. Eligible designs included randomized trials, observational and volunteer studies, and case reports. Methodological quality was evaluated using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool, and certainty of evidence was rated with GRADE. Meta-analysis was performed for outcomes reported in two or more studies. Six randomized trials, five observational studies, two volunteer studies, one case series, and two case reports were included. Observational studies primarily assessed outcomes before and after HFNO intervention. Pooled analysis of four randomized controlled trials (RCTs; n = 375) showed HFNO significantly reduced gastric insufflation compared with face-mask ventilation during elective peri-intubation (risk ratios [RR] = 0.32; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.19-0.52; P < .00001; I 2 = 0%), rated moderate-certainty. For antral cross-sectional area, pooled analysis of three RCTs (n = 318) found no significant difference between HFNO and face-mask ventilation (MD -0.33 cm 2 ; 95% CI, -0.72 to 0.05; P = .09; I 2 = 74%), rated moderate-certainty. Observational studies assessing pre- and post-HFNO changes showed no significant increase in antral cross-sectional area (MD 0.08 cm 2 ; 95% CI, -0.29 to 0.45; P = .67; I 2 = 0%) and no significant change in gastric liquid volume (MD -0.01 ml/kg; 95% CI, -0.07 to 0.06; P = .80; I 2 = 0%), both rated low certainty. Nonpooled data suggested possible increases in critically ill patients, but the evidence was of very low certainty. A single study assessing microaspiration found HFNO reduced gastroesophageal reflux and prevented microaspiration compared with face-mask ventilation. No clinically significant aspiration events were reported across studies. Moderate-certainty evidence supports HFNO as safe regarding gastric insufflation and antral cross-sectional area in most elective and procedural contexts. Low-certainty evidence suggests no increase in gastric volume. Caution is warranted due to limited, low-to-very-low-certainty evidence at higher flow rates and among critically ill patients. Larger multicenter trials and robust observational studies are necessary to confirm safety in these settings.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Risk Factors and Predictive Model for Postoperative High Myopia in Children Undergoing Congenital Cataract Surgery With Intraocular Lens Implantation.

PURPOSE: To identify risk factors associated with the development of high myopia following congenital cataract surgery and to establish a robust predictive model. DESIGN: Retrospective clinical cohort study. SUBJECTS: This retrospective study included 106 pediatric patients who underwent congenital cataract surgery with primary IOL implantation (mean follow-up 8.19 years). The model was externally validated in an independent cohort of 72 patients with a mean follow-up of 7.83 years. METHODS: Preoperative and postoperative ocular biometric parameters were collected. Risk factors for postoperative high myopia were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression, which served as the basis for model construction. The predictive performance of the model was rigorously evaluated for discrimination and calibration. Discriminative ability was quantified using Harrell's C-index and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Model calibration was assessed via calibration plots by comparing predicted probabilities with actual observed outcomes. Internal validation was performed using a bootstrapping method (500 iterations) to ensure model stability and adjust for potential overfitting. RESULTS: An initial postoperative refraction of <+0.75D, and a higher IOL Power to Axial length Ratio (IOL/AL ratio) were identified as significant risk factors for the development of postoperative high myopia. Shorter preoperative axial length was associated with a greater magnitude of postoperative myopic shift. The predictive model demonstrated robust performance, achieving a C-index of 0.711 (internal validation C-index: 0.713). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values for predicting high myopia at 5 and 10 years were 0.858 and 0.745, respectively. Furthermore, calibration curves demonstrated excellent agreement between the predicted and observed outcomes throughout the follow-up period. In external validation, the model achieved a C-index of 0.825, 5-year AUC of 0.833, and 10-year AUC of 0.713. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis established that initial postoperative refraction <+0.75D, and an elevated IOL/AL ratio are key determinants of high myopia risk following surgery. Shorter preoperative axial length was associated with a greater magnitude of postoperative myopic shift. This predictive framework provides clinicians with a practical tool to optimize preoperative IOL selection and identify high-risk infants who require vigilant myopia prevention and balanced amblyopia management.

Humans↗