Large future genetic diversity losses are predicted even with habitat protection.

Abstract

Genetic diversity within species is the basis for evolutionary adaptive capacity and has recently been included as a target for protection in the United Nations' Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF). However, we lack large-scale mathematical frameworks to quantify how much genetic diversity has already been lost, let alone to predict future losses under 21st century conservation scenarios. To fill this gap, we developed an area-based spatio-temporal predictive framework of genetic diversity calibrated with population-scale genomic data of 29 plant and animal species. To estimate present genetic diversity loss with our framework, we used species' habitat area and population sizes losses reported in the Living Planet Index, the Red List, and new GBF indicators across 13,808 species for the last 5 decades. Applying our evolutionary framework across these species, we estimate genetic diversity loss lags behind population and habitat area declines, with an estimated current 13-22% π genetic diversity loss. However, we forecast future genetic diversity losses will reach 41-76% even if populations are not further contracted. These results highlight that safeguarding existing habitats is insufficient to maintain the genetic health of species and relying solely on continuous genetic monitoring underestimates lagging long term impacts.