Commentary: The P-value, devalued.

MOTIVATION: Pairwise local sequence alignment is commonly used to search data bases for sequences related to some query sequence. Alignments are obtained using a scoring matrix that takes into account the different frequencies of occurrence of the various types of amino acid substitutions. Software like BLAST provides the user with a set of scoring matrices available to choose from, and in the literature it is sometimes recommended to try several scoring matrices on the sequences of interest. The significance of an alignment is usually assessed by looking at E-values and p-values. While sequence lengths and data base sizes enter the standard calculations of significance, it is much less common to take the use of several scoring matrices on the same sequences into account. Altschul proposed corrections of the p-value that account for the simultaneous use of an infinite number of PAM matrices. Here we consider the more realistic situation where the user may choose from a finite set of popular PAM and BLOSUM matrices, in particular the ones available in BLAST. It turns out that the significance of a result can be considerably overestimated, if a set of substitution matrices is used in an alignment problem and the most significant alignment is then quoted. RESULTS: Based on extensive simulations, we study the multiple testing problem that occurs when several scoring matrices for local sequence alignment are used. We consider a simple Bonferroni correction of the p-values and investigate its accuracy. Finally, we propose a more accurate correction based on extreme value distributions fitted to the maximum of the normalized scores obtained from different scoring matrices. For various sets of matrices we provide correction factors which can be easily applied to adjust p- and E-values reported by software packages.

Data Interpretation, Statistical↗

PubMed2004

Estimating local interaction from spatiotemporal forest data, and Monte Carlo bias correction.

We point out a general problem in fitting continuous time spatially explicit models to a temporal sequence of spatial data observed at discrete times. To illustrate the problem, we examined the continuous time Markov model for forest gap dynamics. A forest is assumed to be apportioned into discrete cells (or sites) arranged in a regular square lattice. Each site is characterized as either a gap or a non-gap site according to the vegetation height of trees. The model incorporates the influence of neighboring sites on transition rate: transition rate from a non-gap to a gap site increases linearly with the number of neighbors that are currently in the gap state, and vice versa. We fitted the model to the spatiotemporal data of canopy height observed at the permanent plot in Barro Colorado Island (BCI). When we used the approximate maximum likelihood method to estimate the parameters of the model, the estimated transition rates included a large bias-in particular, the strength of interaction between nearby sites was underestimated. This bias originated from the assumption that each transition between two observation times is independent. The interaction between sites at local scale creates a long chain of transitions within a single census interval, which violates the independence of each transition. We show that a computer-intensive method, called Monte Carlo bias correction (MCBC), is very effective in removing the bias included in the estimate. The global and local gap densities measuring spatial aggregation of gap sites were computed from simulated and real gap dynamics to assess the model. When the approximate likelihood estimates were applied to the model, the predicted local gap density was clearly lower than the observed one. The use of MCBC estimates, suggesting a strong interaction between sites, improved this discrepancy.

Data Interpretation, Statistical↗