SEARCH · Search PubMed

Results for “Probability”

Search indexed PubMed citations on genomics, clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health. Explore titles, authors and supplied subject terms, then open the PubMed record.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

43 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2026

RR-interval-based atrial fibrillation detection and burden estimation: cross-dataset validation and calibration-aware probability analysis.

Objective.Atrial fibrillation (AF) burden has become an increasingly important endpoint in long-duration rhythm monitoring, but reliable burden estimation requires more than accurate AF detection alone. In particular, when burden is derived by aggregating predicted AF probabilities over time, probability calibration may directly affect burden validity under external dataset shift.Approach.This study developed an interpretable-interval feature model for AF detection and evaluated it using record-wise cross-validation on a development cohort and independent cross-dataset external validation on public Holter electrocardiographic databases. Window-level performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC), area under the precision-recall curve (PR-AUC), Brier score, expected calibration error (ECE), and calibration intercept and calibration slope. Recording-level AF burden was estimated using both probability-based and hard-label aggregation and evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE) and agreement analyses.Main results.The model showed high discrimination in both development and external evaluation, with external ROC-AUC ofand PR-AUC of. However, external calibration deteriorated despite preserved ranking performance, with Brier score of, ECE(15) of, calibration intercept of, and calibration slope of. In the external cohort, probability-based burden estimation preserved strong association with reference burden but showed weaker raw agreement than hard-label aggregation, with MAE ofversus, consistent with systematic probability underprediction. Repeated external recalibration across record-level splits substantially improved probability quality and probability-based burden estimation. Median probability-burden MAE decreased fromwithout recalibration toafter Platt recalibration andafter isotonic recalibration, while median ECE(15) decreased fromtoand, respectively.Significance.These findings indicate that-interval-based AF detection maintained strong ranking performance in the tested external cohort, but probability calibration should be evaluated explicitly when predicted probabilities are aggregated into AF-burden estimates.

Atrial Fibrillation↗

PubMed2026

Penalized Cumulative Probability Model for a Continuous Outcome Subject to Detection Limits.

Mixed-type outcome data occur when the outcome variable's distribution is a mixture of both continuous and discrete ordinal variables. Such mixed-type outcomes are common in biomedical, psychological, and the health sciences, particularly for variables having either a detection or quantitation limit. When interest lies in identifying a combination of genomic features associated with a mixed-type outcome, any method used would require a variable selection strategy for high-dimensional data. Unfortunately, few variable selection methods exist for modeling a mixed-type outcome when the covariate space is high dimensional. This study develops a high-dimensional penalized cumulative probability model (CPM), to allow for the identification of genomic features associated with mixed-type outcome of interest. We demonstrated how such model may be estimated using the iterative penalization procedure-the generalized monotone incremental forward stagewise (GMIFS) algorithm. The Model-X knockoffs procedure was combined with the estimation algorithm to control the false discovery rates (FDR) when performing variable selection. Through extensive simulation studies, our penalized CPM was shown to outperform alternative methods in terms of controlled variable selection performance by achieving high statistical power with the FDR being controlled at the target level. We demonstrate the utility of our method by applying it to predict estimated glomeruli filtration rate (eGFR) in kidney transplant recipients at 24 months post-transplant using baseline gene expression data as predictors. Our CPM model identified five genes associated with this mixed-type outcome which have important links to renal disease, which may provide prognostic guidance for kidney transplantation recipients.

Models, Statistical↗

PubMed2026

Efficacy of smartphone- and bibliotherapy-delivered multicomponent lifestyle medicine interventions for probable depression: A three-arm randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: This study examined the efficacy of smartphone- (AG) and bibliotherapy-delivered (BG) lifestyle medicine (LM) interventions compared with a waitlist control group (WLG) in reducing depressive symptoms. METHODS: A total of 122 adults with probable depression were randomized to AG (n = 41), BG (n = 40), or WLG (n = 41). AG and BG received the same core 8-week multicomponent LM intervention via a smartphone application or booklets, respectively. The core content included lifestyle psychoeducation, physical activity, diet and nutrition, stress and sleep management, goal-setting, and motivational techniques. Outcomes were assessed at baseline and immediate post-intervention (Week 9) in all groups, with 1-month (Week 13) and 3-month (Week 21) follow-ups conducted in the intervention groups only. RESULTS: At Week 9, AG (d = 0.89) and BG (d = 0.64) showed significantly greater reductions in depressive symptoms than WLG, with within-group improvements maintained at 1- and 3-month follow-ups (ps <.001, d = 0.77-0.96). Clinically significant improvement was achieved by 78% of AG and 55% of BG participants, both significantly higher than WLG (19.5%; ps <.001). Compared with WLG, both interventions yielded greater improvements in overall lifestyle and physical activity (d = 0.59-0.91) at Week 9. The AG showed additional benefits for perceived stress, health responsibility, nutrition, spiritual growth, and stress management (d = 0.58-0.73), whereas BG uniquely improved insomnia symptoms (d = 0.83). CONCLUSION: Smartphone- and bibliotherapy-delivered LM interventions are efficacious for managing probable depression. Further RCTs comparing them with established treatments are warranted.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Microbial allies in a cotton pest: A descriptive account of associated microbiota dynamics in Dysdercus cingulatus across development.

BACKGROUND: Hemipteran insects harbour several symbiotic partners, mainly bacteria, which play pivotal roles for hosts like dietary provision, support overall physiology, xenobiotic degradation and manipulate/regulate behaviour. Most of these symbionts usually reside and operate from the digestive tracts of the animals. Cotton is one of the major cash crops in India and Dysdercus cingulatus (D. cingulatus) though a secondary pest, is causing significant destruction of cotton bolls, poor lint quality and reduce oil content of seeds. Premature opening of cotton bolls often leads to bacterial and fungal infections, thus resulting in extensive economic loss worldwide. D. cingulatus is a hemimetabolous insect that comprises of developmental stages like egg, nymph (5 instar stages), and adult. The present work explored the ontogeny specific diversity in the associated microbiota and predicted their probable functional inputs in D. cingulatus. RESULTS: The data obtained using 16S rRNA gene sequencing (NovaSeq 6000) revealed presence of members of Proteobacteria (65.83%), Firmicutes (24%), Actinobacteria (10%) phyla throughout the ontogeny of D. cingulatus. Highest alpha diversity of these symbiotic bacteria was recorded in the third instar nymphs in contrast to rest of the developmental stages. Among all the observed genera, Stenotrophomonas, Hungatella and Glutamicibacter were predominant from egg to adult stages. MicFunPred, a tool used for predicting the probable functional inputs of these symbionts, hinted at their probable stage specific contribution in crucial biochemical pathways such as polyketide biosynthesis, ascorbate/aldarate metabolism, pentose phosphate and glyoxylate cycles, steroid hormone and peptidoglycan biosynthesis, and glycolysis/pyruvate metabolism. CONCLUSIONS: The primary investigations on the ontogenetic composition and diversity of associated microbiota, suggest dynamic shifts in D. cingulatus, concurrent with their probable functions/roles in the host development and metabolism. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report on symbiotic microbiota variation across the developmental stages of D. cingulatus that provides preliminary descriptive observations that may guide future functional and experimental investigations into microbiota-based pest management.

Animals↗

PubMed2026

Association between Kidney Tubular Secretory Clearance with Cognitive Function among Adults with CKD in the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial.

BACKGROUND: Persons with CKD are disproportionally affected with cognitive impairment, yet the pathophysiology linking the two conditions is unclear. Because kidney tubule secretion is essential for clearance of medications, uremic toxins, and metabolites, we hypothesized that worse tubular secretion would be associated with reduced cognitive function in CKD. METHODS: The Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial tested a systolic blood pressure target <120 mmHg vs. <140 mmHg in hypertensive individuals at high cardiovascular risk. In paired blood and urine specimens from 1,937 participants with eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73m2, we measured 10 endogenous tubule-secreted metabolites and calculated a urine/plasma ratio for each, then averaged these to generate a summary secretion score. We used unadjusted and multivariable-adjusted linear regression and mixed models to evaluate cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of the secretion score with the Montreal Cognitive Assessment, Digit Symbol Coding, and Logical Memory immediate and delayed tests-measured at baseline and months 24 and 48 of follow-up. Multivariable Cox regression evaluated associations with incident probable dementia and mild cognitive impairment, adjudicated by prespecified criteria. RESULTS: Mean age was 73 ± 9 years, 41% were women, mean eGFR was 48.2 ± 11.4 ml/min/1.73m2, median albuminuria was 14.8 [7.1-48.6] mg/g. Lower secretion score was associated with a 0.06 higher adjusted logical memory delayed score (95% CI: 0.02, 0.11) but not with other cognitive tests at baseline or longitudinal cognitive decline. After a median 4.1 years of follow-up, 118 developed probable dementia and 187 developed mild cognitive impairment. Each 1-SD lower secretion score was associated with lower risk of probable dementia (HR 0.78, 95% CI: 0.63, 0.98) but not mild cognitive impairment. CONCLUSIONS: Among Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial participants with CKD, lower estimated tubular secretion was not associated with worse cognition at baseline or during longitudinal follow-up.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2026

Repeated scoring with the adult appendicitis score improves the sensitivity and the specificity of appendicitis diagnosis in patients with early equivocal signs of appendicitis: a secondary analysis.

PURPOSE: The utilization of computed tomography in the early stage of acute appendicitis may result in overdiagnosis and unnecessarily expose patients to ionising radiation. The Adult Appendicitis Score (AAS) can be used to select patients for imaging. Observation and re-scoring in the DIAMOND trial reduced the need for imaging. Now, we wanted to determine if the change in AAS (∆AAS) can serve as a diagnostic tool to select patients for imaging even more precisely. METHODS: Eighty-eight patients with early equivocal appendicitis participated in the observation arm of the DIAMOND trial. The data for these patients were reanalysed, and ∆AAS during the observation was calculated. The baseline AAS, final AAS, and the change in C-reactive protein (∆CRP) were selected as reference standards. RESULTS: Eighty-three patients with complete data were included in the analysis. The AUROC (Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic) values are as follows: ∆AAS, 0.932 (95% CI 0.868-0.996); baseline AAS, 0.629 (95% CI 0.498-0.760); final AAS, 0.936 (95% CI 0.886-0.987); and ∆CRP, 0.796 (95% CI 0.696-0.897). Using receiver operating characteristic curves, we established the thresholds for low (AAS ≤ -2), intermediate (AAS -1 to 0), and high (AAS ≥ 1) probability of appendicitis. The negative predictive value for the low-probability group and the positive predictive value for the high-probability group concerning acute appendicitis were 97% and 94%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Patients with equivocal signs of appendicitis may benefit from short observation and the calculation of ∆AAS to reduce overdiagnosis and exposure to excessive imaging. REGISTRATION: The DIAMOND trial was officially registered on ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02742402) on April 13, 2016.

Adult↗

PubMed2026

Modelling the effects of biological intervention in a dynamical gene network.

Cellular response to environmental and internal signals can be modeled by dynamical gene regulatory networks (GRN). In the literature, three main classes of gene network models can be distinguished: (1) non-quantitative (or data-based) models which do not describe the probability distribution of gene expressions; (2) quantitative models which fully describe the probability distribution of all genes co-expression; and (3) mechanistic models which allow for a causal interpretation of gene interactions. We propose two rigorous frameworks to model gene alteration in a dynamical GRN, depending on whether the network model is quantitative or mechanistic. We explain how these models can be used for design of experiment, or, if additional alteration data are available, for validation purposes or to improve the parameter estimation of the original model. We apply these methods to the Gaussian graphical model, which is quantitative but non-mechanistic, and to mechanistic models of Bayesian networks and penalized linear regression.

Gene Regulatory Networks↗

PubMed2026

Electro-clinical efficacy and safety of midazolam in neonatal seizures: a systematic review with individual level exploratory analysis of gestational age-related treatment response.

UNLABELLED: Neonatal seizures are the most common neurological emergency during the neonatal period and are associated with increased mortality and adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes. Despite current recommendations supporting phenobarbital as first-line therapy, seizure control remains suboptimal in a large proportion of neonates, prompting the use of second-line antiseizure medications. Midazolam is increasingly administered in refractory neonatal seizures but evidence regarding its electro-clinical efficacy and safety remains limited and heterogeneous. To systematically review the available evidence on the electro-clinical efficacy and safety of midazolam in neonatal seizures and to perform an exploratory individual-level analysis investigating the association between gestational age and treatment response. A systematic review was conducted according to PRISMA 2020 guidelines. Studies including neonates with EEG- or aEEG-confirmed seizures treated with midazolam were included. Binary logistic regression was performed to assess the individual-level association between gestational age and treatment response. Eleven studies involving 146 neonates treated with midazolam were included. Electro-clinical response was observed in 101/146 neonates (69.2%), while seizure cessation was achieved in 61/146 neonates (41.8%). In an exploratory complete-case logistic regression analysis, higher gestational age appeared to be associated with a greater probability of electro-clinical response. The predicted probability curve crossed the 50% response probability at approximately 36.5 weeks of gestation. Hypotension was the most frequently reported adverse event, while respiratory depression, sedation-related effects, and transient EEG/aEEG suppression were reported less frequently. CONCLUSIONS: Midazolam may have a role as an add-on antiseizure medication in neonatal seizures, particularly in refractory cases. However, the evidence remains limited by heterogeneity in study design, EEG monitoring strategies, outcome definitions, and incomplete individual-level data. The observed association between gestational age and response is hypothesis-generating and requires prospective validation. WHAT IS KNOWN: • Phenobarbital often provides incomplete seizure control in neonates, making second-line antiseizure therapies necessary in refractory cases. • Evidence supporting midazolam for neonatal seizures remains limited and heterogeneous. WHAT IS NEW: • This systematic review summarizes the electro-clinical efficacy and safety of midazolam and includes an exploratory patient-level analysis suggesting that higher gestational age may be associated with improved treatment response. • These findings support further prospective studies on developmental determinants of response to GABAergic therapy.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Associations between prescribed amphetamines and spontaneous cervical artery dissection: a matched case-control study.

AIMS: To assess whether prescribed amphetamines are associated with spontaneous cervical artery dissection (sCeAD), an important cause of stroke in young adults. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective matched case-control study within a large academic health system in Chicago, Illinois. Adults aged 18-85 years with incident sCeAD were matched 1:4 to controls without dissection on age, sex, and race/ethnicity. The primary exposure was documented amphetamine prescription. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) controlling for relevant vascular and clinical covariates. Sensitivity analyses included strict matched-strata and inverse probability-weighted models. RESULTS: Among 11,463 individuals, including 2,293 cases and 9,170 controls, amphetamine exposure was associated with higher odds of sCeAD (adjusted OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.18-2.46). Results were unchanged in strictly matched strata (OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.18-2.46) and remained directionally consistent after inverse probability weighting (OR 1.40, 95% CI 1.09-1.79). High-dose amphetamine exposure (≥30 mg/day) had the strongest association (OR 1.96, 95% CI 1.18-3.26), whereas low-dose exposure was not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: Prescribed amphetamines were associated with modestly increased odds of sCeAD. While these findings are observational and hypothesis-generating, they may support a possible association in susceptible patients.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Angiotensin II regulates anxiety and social-affective top-down and bottom-up attention control in a sex-dependent manner.

BACKGROUND: The renin-angiotensin system (RAS) has been increasingly recognized as potent modulator of cognitive and affective functions, with angiotensin II type 1 receptor (AT1R) antagonists emerging as repurposing candidate for anxiety and stress-related disorders. However, it remains unclear whether transient AT1R blockade modulates emotional attentional control and whether these effects are sex-dependent. METHODS: We conducted a preregistered, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled pharmacological eye-tracking study in 79 healthy adults (males and females) and determined effects of transient AT1R blockade via losartan (50 mg) on emotional attention control using a validated anti-saccade paradigm with social (emotional faces) and non-social stimuli. Treatment effects on state anxiety and oculomotor responses were characterized using traditional metrics and a novel trial-history informed dynamic control framework. RESULTS: Losartan reduced state anxiety irrespective of sex but induced sexually dimorphic effects on attentional control. In females, losartan enhanced performance by reducing endpoint error without altering latency. Conversely, in males, losartan increased endpoint error and prolonged latency of the first correct saccade. Trial-history analyses revealed losartan reduced error probabilities following errors and repeat trials in both sexes. Yet, following correct trials, females receiving losartan maintained lower error probabilities, while males exhibited higher errors, potentially reflecting failure to disengage from effortful control. CONCLUSIONS: The RAS modulates anxiety and attentional control, the latter sex-dependently. AT1R blockade reconfigures attentional processing and adaptive control, suggesting sex-specific therapeutic potential in disorders characterized by excessive anxiety and attentional dysregulation. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov; https://clinicaltrials.gov/;NCT06329050.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

The Interrelationship between Cadmium, Smoking, and Migraine in the ELSA-Brasil Study.

This study explored the relationship between serum cadmium (Cd), smoking exposure, and migraine in the ELSA-Brasil cohort (2008-2010). The analysis included 2,750 participants whose serum Cd levels were measured using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Smoking exposure was assessed using self-report data of active smoking and second-hand smoke. Migraine, including definite and probable migraine, was diagnosed according to the International Classification of Headache Disorders, 3rd edition (ICHD-3). Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of migraine across serum Cd quintiles, using the third quintile as the reference category, while linear regression examined the relationship between smoking exposure and Cd levels. Polynomial contrasts tested linear trends. Participants had a mean (SD) age of 53.2 (9.0) years and 53.1% were women. Migraine prevalence was 29.1% (including probable migraine). Individuals with migraine had slightly higher median serum Cd levels than controls [0.050 µg/L (IQR 0.035-0.077) vs. 0.048 µg/L (0.035-0.066); p = 0.021], although smoking exposure scores did not differ between groups. Smoking exposure showed a strong positive association with serum Cd concentrations (p-trend < 0.001). Participants in the highest Cd quintile had greater odds of migraine [aOR 1.51 (95% CI 1.09-2.08), p = 0.011] after adjustment for smoking exposure and sociodemographic and clinical confounders. Sex-stratified analysis yielded even stronger associations among males [aOR 1.84 (95% CI 1.07-3.16), p = 0.027]. However, in the sensitivity analysis including definite migraine cases only, this association was no longer significant [aOR: 1.14 (0.71, 1.83), p = 0.579]. Main findings suggest that Cd exposure from smoking may contribute to migraine occurrence, particularly in males. However, other sources of Cd that could influence migraine should not be disregarded, and future investigation in this field is warranted.

Cadmium↗

PubMed2026

ADAM10's combined influence on the diagnostic usefulness of IL 22, IL 10, IL-17 A, and IL-17D in autism spectrum disorders: Predicted role on gut leakiness as co-morbidity.

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a complex neurodevelopmental disorder with increasing global prevalence but a lack of reliable diagnostic biomarkers. Emerging evidence suggests that immune dysregulation, gut-brain axis dysfunction, and increased intestinal permeability play key roles in ASD pathophysiology. This study investigated the combined diagnostic value of ADAM10 and cytokines (IL-10, IL-22, IL-17 A, and IL-17D). Multivariable logistic regression produces an improved ROC curve that improves diagnostic accuracy over individual markers by combining numerous predictors into a single risk score (linear predictor). The technique, which frequently raises individual marker AUCs, entails modelling a binary result, calculating the probability, and visualizing ROC based on the projected probabilities. In this case-control study, plasma levels of ADAM10, IL-10, IL-22, IL-17 A, and IL-17D were measured in 37 male children with ASD and 37 age-matched controls. Group comparisons, correlation analyses, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses, including combined ROC models, were performed. ADAM10, IL-22, and IL-17 A levels were significantly reduced in children with ASD compared to controls, whereas IL-10 and IL-17D showed no significant differences. ADAM10, IL-17 A, and IL-22 demonstrated good diagnostic performance, with AUC values of 0.886, 0.855, and 0.812, respectively. In contrast, IL-10 and IL-17D showed poor discriminatory ability, with AUC values of 0.524 and 0.599, respectively. Combined ROC analysis markedly improved diagnostic accuracy, with all panels including ADAM10 achieving AUC values above 0.90, and some reaching as high as 0.988, with high sensitivity and specificity. The combination of ADAM10 with selected cytokines significantly enhances diagnostic performance compared to individual markers, supporting a link between immune dysregulation, barrier dysfunction, and gut permeability in ASD.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

A reanalysis of the Hitachi cohort study evaluating the effectiveness of low-dose CT screening for lung cancer.

The effectiveness of low-dose thoracic computed tomography (CT) screening for lung cancer for non-smokers or light smokers has been unclear. The results of the Hitachi cohort study performed by the conventional multivariable analysis suggested the reduction of lung cancer mortality by thoracic CT screening, but also revealed the lower all-cause mortality in the CT group, which indicated the existence of self-selection bias. Because the background of the subjects in the CT screening group and that in the X-ray screening group were very different, it is critical to adjust appropriately the confounding factors. In this brief report, we describe a re-evaluation of the results of the Hitachi Cohort Study performed by using more flexible methods, propensity score matching and inverse probability weighting.

epidemiology/public health↗

PubMed2026

Effects of transcutaneous electrical acupoint stimulation versus acupressure on the trajectories of multidimensional adverse reactions to chemotherapy in breast cancer patients: a secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Chemotherapy for breast cancer often induces multidimensional adverse reactions such as nausea and vomiting, anxiety, depression, and sleep disturbances. These symptoms are interrelated and may evolve dynamically, impacting patients' treatment outcomes and quality of life. As non-pharmacological interventions, transcutaneous electrical acupoint stimulation (TEAS) and self-acupressure (SA) have shown potential in alleviating symptoms. However, their long-term effects on the joint developmental trajectories of these multidimensional symptoms (nausea and vomiting, anxiety, depression, and sleep disturbances) remain unclear. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to identify potential trajectory class of multidimensional adverse reactions in breast cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy and to explore the differential effects of TEAS and SA on different trajectory subgroups. METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial. A total of 189 breast cancer patients receiving chemotherapy were included. The Group-Based Multi-Trajectory Model (GBMTM) was employed to identify joint developmental trajectories of acute/delayed chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting (CINV), anxiety, depression, and sleep quality during chemotherapy. Subsequently, causal forest was used to analyze the average treatment effects (ATE) of TEAS (vs. control group) and SA (vs. control group) on patients' symptom trajectory. RESULTS: Multidimensional adverse reactions were classified into two heterogeneous trajectories: a "High Symptom Burden-Persistent (HSBP)" type (n = 101) and a "Low Symptom Burden-Relieving (LSBR)" type (n = 88). The persistent high incidence of acute CINV contrasted sharply with the comprehensive relief of other symptoms in the latter group. Causal forest suggested that both TEAS and SA significantly increased the probability of patients being classified into the "LSBR" trajectory. The ATE was 0.147 (95% CI: 0.143, 0.151) for TEAS, slightly lower (P < 0.05) than 0.176 (95% CI: 0.162, 0.190) for SA.  CONCLUSION: Multidimensional adverse reactions in breast cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy exhibit heterogeneity in their trajectories. Both TEAS and SA were associated with a higher probability of patients being classified into a more favorable symptom trajectory-LSBR. The multidimensional trajectory identification with treatment effect estimation may serve as a useful analytical strategy for future longitudinal research in cancer chemotherapy-induced adverse reactions symptom management. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ChiCTR2300077667 (Chinese Clinical Trial Registry, https://www.chictr.org.cn/ ), Registered 15 November 2023.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Family-Wise Error Rate Control in Clinical Trials With Overlapping Populations.

We consider clinical trials with multiple, overlapping patient populations that test multiple treatment policies specifically tailored to these populations. Such designs may lead to multiplicity issues, as false statements will affect several populations. For type I error control, often the family-wise error rate (FWER) is controlled, which is the probability to reject at least one true null hypothesis. If the joint distribution of the test statistics is known, the FWER level can be exhausted by determining critical values or adjusted-levels. The adjustment is typically done under the common ANOVA assumptions. However, the performed tests are then only valid under the rather strong assumption of homogeneous null effects, that is, when the null hypothesis applies to all subpopulations and their intersections. We show that under cancelling null effects, when heterogeneous effects cancel out in some or all subpopulations, this procedure does not provide FWER control. We also suggest different alternatives and compare them in terms of FWER control and their power.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Statistical test to compare the linkage model and the admixture model based on central limit results.

In the Admixture Model, the probability that an individual carries a certain allele at a specific marker depends on the allele frequencies in K ancestral populations and the proportion of the individual's genome originating from these populations. The markers are assumed to be independent. The Linkage Model is a Hidden Markov Model that extends the Admixture Model by incorporating linkage between neighboring loci. We prove consistency and asymptotic normality of maximum likelihood estimators for the ancestry of individuals in the Linkage Model, complementing earlier results by (Pfaff et al., 2004; Pfaffelhuber and Rohde, 2022; Heinzel, 2025) for the Admixture Model. These results are used to prove that a statistical test that allows for model selection between the Admixture Model and the Linkage Model is an asymptotic level-α-test. Finally, we demonstrate the practical relevance of our results by applying the test to real-world data from The 1000 Genomes Project Consortium (2015).

Genetic Linkage↗

PubMed2026

Safety, tolerability, and efficacy of RIPK1 inhibitor, SAR443820, in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (HIMALAYA): a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: RIPK1, a protein regulating inflammatory signalling and cell death, is implicated in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) pathophysiology. SAR443820 is a selective, oral, CNS-penetrant, reversible RIPK1 inhibitor. We aimed to evaluate the safety, tolerability, and efficacy of SAR443820 in participants with ALS. METHODS: This multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 2 trial was conducted at 63 clinical sites in 13 countries (Belgium, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden, the UK, and the USA). Adults (aged 18-80 years) with a diagnosis of possible ALS, clinically probable ALS, clinically probable laboratory-supported ALS, or clinically definite ALS, in accordance with the revised El Escorial World Federation of Neurology criteria, were randomly assigned (2:1) by use of a stratified block design (blocks of three) to receive either 20 mg SAR443820 orally twice per day or matching placebo in the 24-week double-blind period. Randomisation was done centrally using interactive response technology and stratified by geographical region of trial site, region of ALS onset, use of riluzole, use of edaravone, and use of the combination of sodium phenylbutyrate and taurursodiol. Participants, care providers, investigators, and outcomes assessors were masked to trial intervention. The primary outcome was a change in ALS Functional Rating Scale Revised (ALSFRS-R) total score from baseline to week 24 and was calculated for all participants who had an ALSFRS-R total score available at baseline and at week 24. Safety analyses included all randomly assigned participants receiving one dose or more of trial intervention. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05237284) and was terminated early. FINDINGS: Between April 13, 2022, and July 17, 2023, 397 participants were screened and 305 randomly assigned to SAR443820 (n=203) or placebo (n=102); six were excluded from the primary analysis due to missing baseline ALSFRS-R values. Mean age was 56·9 years (SD 11·5); 183 (60%) participants were male and 122 (40%) were female. Least squares mean change in ALSFRS-R from baseline to week 24 was -6·73 (95% CI -7·48 to -5·98) for SAR443820 group (n=169) and -6·32 (-7·36 to -5·27) for placebo group (n=87). There was no statistically significant difference between the study groups (least squares mean difference -0·41 [95% CI -1·71 to 0·88]). Participants in the SAR443820 group had higher incidence of adverse events (171 [85%] of 202 vs placebo 80 [78%] of 102) and treatment discontinuations (28 [14%] of 202 vs placebo five [5%] of 102), with elevated hepatic enzymes being the most common cause. Nine deaths occurred in the double-blind period (seven [3%] of 202 in the SAR443820 group and two [2%] of 102 in the placebo group); none was attributed to SAR443820. INTERPRETATION: SAR443820 did not show clinical benefit and was associated with higher hepatic enzyme increase, indicating that further clinical development of SAR443820 in ALS is not warranted. FUNDING: Sanofi.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

How Do Climatic Factors Directly Influence the Incidence and Risk of Meningococcal Meningitis Across the African Meningitis Belt? A Narrative Literature Review.

Globally, the highest incidence of meningococcal meningitis occurs within the African meningitis belt, spanning 26 countries across sub-Saharan Africa. Meningococcal meningitis incidence is highly seasonal in this region specifically, with outbreaks mostly occurring during the dry season, characterized by low rainfall and atmospheric humidity, high temperature, and increased dust and wind speed. The strong seasonality of meningococcal outbreaks coincides with seasonal variation in climatic factors. This multicollinearity can make it difficult to identify environmental drivers of disease and the mechanisms by which they operate. This review aims to collate existing evidence to better clarify the mechanisms by which climatic variables influence meningococcal meningitis incidence. We examined the impact of dust, wind speed, temperature, rainfall, and land cover on meningococcal meningitis outbreaks. Within the literature, atmospheric dust and wind speed had the strongest statistical association with meningococcal outbreaks and demonstrated greater predictive probability than other climatic variables. However, several climatic factors have demonstrable influences on one another, reflected in the seasonality of meningococcal meningitis. Atmospheric dust can reduce precipitation levels in part through its radiative properties. Decreased rainfall and increasing temperatures can dry out soil, increasing its availability to be uplifted as dust. Alongside, this lower atmospheric humidity increases evaporative demand, leading to faster soil moisture loss and enhanced surface drying. We argue that rainfall, temperature, and land cover variability may act as part of a broader climatic mechanism, increasing atmospheric dust. This increases the incidence and risk of meningococcal meningitis.

Africa↗