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Penalized Cumulative Probability Model for a Continuous Outcome Subject to Detection Limits.

Mixed-type outcome data occur when the outcome variable's distribution is a mixture of both continuous and discrete ordinal variables. Such mixed-type outcomes are common in biomedical, psychological, and the health sciences, particularly for variables having either a detection or quantitation limit. When interest lies in identifying a combination of genomic features associated with a mixed-type outcome, any method used would require a variable selection strategy for high-dimensional data. Unfortunately, few variable selection methods exist for modeling a mixed-type outcome when the covariate space is high dimensional. This study develops a high-dimensional penalized cumulative probability model (CPM), to allow for the identification of genomic features associated with mixed-type outcome of interest. We demonstrated how such model may be estimated using the iterative penalization procedure-the generalized monotone incremental forward stagewise (GMIFS) algorithm. The Model-X knockoffs procedure was combined with the estimation algorithm to control the false discovery rates (FDR) when performing variable selection. Through extensive simulation studies, our penalized CPM was shown to outperform alternative methods in terms of controlled variable selection performance by achieving high statistical power with the FDR being controlled at the target level. We demonstrate the utility of our method by applying it to predict estimated glomeruli filtration rate (eGFR) in kidney transplant recipients at 24 months post-transplant using baseline gene expression data as predictors. Our CPM model identified five genes associated with this mixed-type outcome which have important links to renal disease, which may provide prognostic guidance for kidney transplantation recipients.

Models, Statistical

Neighborhood Deprivation and Screening Mammography Utilization: A Retrospective Cross-Sectional Study.

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: Access to screening mammography reduces breast cancer mortality disparities. The Area Deprivation Index (ADI) is a validated measure of neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage linked to adverse health outcomes. There is limited data evaluating mammography utilization among patients residing in areas of higher deprivation. This study evaluated the association between ADI and screening mammography utilization within an accountable care organization (ACO) affiliated with a multicenter academic medical center in the Upper Midwest. METHODS: This retrospective cross-sectional study included women aged 40-85 years attributed to the ACO in 2022, based on Wisconsin Collaborative for Healthcare Quality criteria. The primary outcome was receipt of screening mammography within two years. The primary exposure was ADI, analyzed by decile (ordinal) and as low (deciles 1-5) versus high (deciles 6-10) deprivation. The logistic regression models evaluated associations between ADI and screening, unadjusted and adjusted for age, race, ethnicity, and preferred language. RESULTS: Among 7463 participants with geographic data, 74.4% completed screening. Screening rates were 75.7% in low-deprivation areas versus 66.2% in high-deprivation areas. Increasing ADI decile was associated with reduced screening in unadjusted (OR 0.891, 95% CI 0.87-0.91, p<0.001) and adjusted analyses (OR 0.897, 95% CI 0.88-0.92, p<0.001). Black participants (OR 0.444, p<0.001) and individuals preferring non-English languages (OR 0.333, p<0.001) had lower screening odds after adjustment. CONCLUSION: Higher neighborhood deprivation is independently associated with lower screening mammography utilization. Targeted, equity-focused interventions addressing neighborhood, racial, and language-related barriers are needed to reduce screening disparities.

Area deprivation Index

Changes in sexual behavior among women in studies evaluating the dapivirine vaginal ring for HIV prevention.

BACKGROUND: Access to novel HIV prevention technologies often raise concerns of risk compensation. This analysis examined changes in the sexual behaviors of MTN 020/ASPIRE participants, a placebo controlled randomized control trial, who subsequently enrolled in MTN-025/HOPE, an open-label extension using the dapivirine vaginal ring. METHODS: Both studies enrolled healthy, sexually active, HIV-negative women from Malawi, South Africa, Uganda and Zimbabwe. Longitudinal data on participants' sexual behaviors, specifically sex with a nonprimary partner (past 3&#xa0;months), and use of male or female condoms at the last vaginal sex act were compared between ASPIRE and HOPE. Conditional and mixed ordinal logistic regression models evaluated associations between study and sexual behaviors at enrollment,&#xa0;and quarterly over the first 12&#xa0;months. RESULTS: Of the 2629 individuals enrolled in ASPIRE, 1456 (55%) participated in HOPE. At enrollment, the proportion of participants who reported sex with a nonprimary partner and condom use at last vaginal sex act did not differ by study. Across all quarterly follow-up visits, sex with a nonprimary partner was more common in HOPE (13.9-18.7%) than ASPIRE (10.7-12.6%); adjusted OR&#xa0;1.47, 95% CI 1.24-1.75, P&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.001. There was no difference in condom use at the last vaginal act across all quarterly follow-up visits between ASPIRE (36.5-42.7%) and HOPE (43.6-46.7%); adjusted OR&#xa0;1.05, 95% CI 0.94-1.18. CONCLUSION: More women reported sex with nonprimary partners in HOPE, with little change in condom use over time between the two studies. Understanding behavior changes during PrEP use allows for tailored, holistic reproductive health programming.

Humans

Diffusion MRI radiomics in meningiomas: imaging correlates of tumor grade and intraoperative consistency.

OBJECTIVE: Despite advancements in imaging studies, the preoperative prediction of the biological behavior and intraoperative consistency of intracranial meningiomas remains limited. This study evaluated the association of volumetric diffusion-based and texture-derived radiomic features extracted from routine MRI with histopathological aggressiveness and intraoperative tumor consistency. METHODS: Ninety-seven intracranial meningiomas resected at two tertiary centers were retrospectively analyzed. Volumetric segmentation was performed on contrast-enhanced T1-weighted MRI and coregistered to apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps. Data on first-order diffusion metrics and selected texture features were collected. The associations between World Health Organization (WHO) grade and Ki-67 index were assessed using nonparametric tests and Spearman correlation analysis. Independent factors associated with intraoperative tumor consistency (Zada grades 1-5) were evaluated via multivariate ordinal logistic regression analysis that adjusted for tumor volume, skull base location, calcification status, and WHO grade. Secondary receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were performed to differentiate solid (Zada grades 4-5) from soft (Zada grades 1-2) tumors. ROC analyses were performed within the study cohort and were intended as exploratory assessments of discriminative performance. RESULTS: The mean ADC (ADCmean) and the 10th percentile of the ADC decreased significantly with increasing WHO grade (p < 0.001). ADCmean had a moderate inverse correlation with the Ki-67 index (r = -0.42, p < 0.001) and intraoperative tumor consistency (r = -0.45, p < 0.001). In the multivariate analysis, the ADCmean remained independently associated with increasing tumor firmness. Each 0.1 &#xd7; 10-3 mm2/sec increase corresponded to a 38% reduction in the odds of belonging to a higher consistency category (OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.51-0.74, p < 0.001). The ROC analysis showed good discrimination for solid tumors (area under the curve 0.847, 95% CI 0.742-0.953) and soft tumors (area under the curve 0.824, 95% CI 0.714-0.935). Texture features had weaker associations with intraoperative tumor consistency. CONCLUSIONS: Volumetric diffusion-derived metrics, particularly ADCmean, are associated with both histopathological aggressiveness and intraoperative tumor firmness in meningiomas. Diffusion imaging may reflect a graded microstructural continuum rather than a purely dichotomous property, providing complementary preoperative insights into surgical complexity.

Humans

Ultrasound protocols used to detect vascular gas emboli in divers: a systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: Venous gas emboli (VGE) detected via ultrasound can be used as a surrogate marker for decompression stress. While Doppler ultrasound is the historical gold standard, two-dimensional (2D) ultrasonography offers advantages for on-site monitoring, including a wider field of view and reduced dependence on noise-free environments. This systematic review evaluates 2D ultrasonography protocols used in decompression research since the 2015 International Meeting on Ultrasound for Diving Research, identifying methodological similarities, differences, and adherence to consensus recommendations. METHODS: A search of PubMed and Scopus identified studies using 2D ultrasound to detect VGE in divers. Inclusion criteria were: (1) use of 2D ultrasound, (2) detection of VGE or monitoring of decompression stress, (3) inclusion of a diver cohort, and (4) publication after 2015. Data extraction focused on VGE scoring systems, ultrasound hardware, measurement protocols, and operator experience. Risk of bias was assessed using ROBINS-I-V2, and compliance with the 2015 consensus recommendations was evaluated. RESULTS: Twenty studies were included. The Eftedal-Brubakk scale was most commonly used (n = 15), with cardiac ultrasound as the primary imaging modality; one study assessed a peripheral vessel. Common shortcomings included post-dive measurements lasting less than two hours, underreporting of operator experience and hardware specifications, limited individual-level data, and inappropriate use of parametric statistics for ordinal bubble grade data. No study fully complied with all consensus recommendations. CONCLUSIONS: This review demonstrates that, although two-dimensional ultrasound is widely used for post-dive VGE assessment, methodological heterogeneity with multiple shortcomings remain. Furthermore, nearly all studies restricted imaging to the heart, thus leaving peripheral vessel assessment largely unexplored.

Embolism, Air

Microbial signal profiles and organism-level concordance between plasma metagenomic sequencing and blood culture in suspected bloodstream infection.

Plasma metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) and blood culture detect different components of the microbial signal and frequently produce discordant organism reports. We characterized microbial signal class, report-derived burden, organism-level concordance, and independent clinical attribution in a retrospective, single-center, episode-level cohort. Among 329 episodes with evaluable plasma mNGS reports, 315 had blood culture performed; 232 were mNGS positive/culture negative and 53 were positive by both methods. In the 232 discordant episodes, the recorded routine-care diagnosis classified 124 as bloodstream infection (BSI) and 108 as non-BSI. Nonviral signals were present in 78.2% and 42.6%, respectively (P&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001), and median maximum report-derived sequence counts were 98.5 and 11.5 (P&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001). Two laboratory physicians then independently reviewed source records using structured criteria while masked to the recorded BSI label and mNGS organism and sequence-count information. Initial agreement for the five-category BSI assessment was 97.6% (Cohen's kappa, 0.960). Within the mNGS-positive/culture-negative subgroup, adjudicated BSI likelihood showed a modest ordinal association with report burden (Spearman rho&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.190; P&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.004), while mNGS organisms were considered supported in 1 episode, plausible in 158, unlikely or contaminant in 72, and unresolved in 1. Among 53 dual-positive episodes, 33 (62.3%) shared at least one species, but only 5 (9.4%) had complete species-set concordance. Plasma mNGS and blood culture therefore frequently generated non-equivalent organism sets. Signal class and report burden contributed graded contextual evidence, but organism-level attribution required clinical review and orthogonal microbiology rather than binary positivity alone.

Humans

Assessment of Genetic Diversity and Population Structure on Azadirachta indica A. Juss. in an Urban Metropolitan: Ahmedabad, India.

Azadirachta indica (A. indica) A. Juss., commonly known as Neem, is a valuable multipurpose tree with profound medicinal properties and socioeconomic importance, widely recognized since ancient Ayurvedic times. Despite its prominence, knowledge about its genetic diversity within the metropolitan area of Ahmedabad is limited. This study marks the first in-depth exploration of the genetic diversity and population structure of A. indica in Ahmedabad. The authenticity of the species was validated through DNA barcoding, and a Geographical Information System (GIS) was used to collect the samples. A total of 35 A. indica accessions were analyzed using five Inter Simple Sequence Repeat (ISSR) primers. Genetic diversity and population structure were evaluated using Inter Simple Sequence Repeat (ISSR) markers through polymorphism assessment, clustering, ordination, and Bayesian population structure analyses. ISSRs revealed a high level of polymorphism (75.66%), indicating substantial genetic variability among accessions. An analysis of genetic diversity indices revealed low to moderate diversity (Hs&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.14, Ht&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.217, I&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.217). Analysis of Molecular Variance (AMOVA) analysis depicted 81% variation within the population and 19% among the population. Low to moderate genetic differentiation (Gst&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.319) and moderate gene flow (Nm&#x2009;=&#x2009;1.06) indicated that urban development has not hindered gene flow among populations. Mantel's test revealed a weak but significant correlation between genetic and geographic distances, suggesting limited isolation by distance. The estimated &#x394;K using STRUCTURE exhibited two subpopulations, representing two gene pools for A. indica accessions (K&#x2009;=&#x2009;2). Collectively, these patterns indicate that urbanization has not severely disrupted genetic connectivity in A. indica, reflecting its resilience and adaptive potential in a metropolitan environment. These findings provide pivotal knowledge for further understanding the genetic diversity and population structure of A. indica in one of the fastest-growing cities in India, which can be utilized for new breeding programmes, sustainable development and future conservation strategies around the globe.

India

The incidence and descriptive factors of calcaneal malunion after surgical fixation of intra-articular calcaneal fractures using the sinus tarsi approach: A retrospective cohort study with binary logistic regression analysis.

BACKGROUND: This study evaluated the incidence of calcaneal malunion after minimally invasive sinus tarsi approach (MIS-STA) in displaced intra-articular calcaneal fractures (I-ACFs) and identified related descriptive factors of calcaneal malunion. METHODS: A retrospective review of 99 displaced I-ACFs treated with MIS-STA was conducted. Demographic data, pre-operative radiographs, and operative details were analyzed. Outcomes included numerical rating scale (NRS) pain scores at rest and during activities of daily living (ADL), Foot and Ankle Ability Measure (FAAM) for ADL and radiographic parameters. Logistic regression was used to identify descriptive factors associated with malunion. RESULTS: Malunion occurred in 33/99 cases (33.3%). The significant descriptive factors were the initial B&#xf6;hler angle <&#x202f;0.5 &#xb0;, time to surgery >&#x202f;12.5 days, and Sanders type &#x2265;&#x202f;III. Malunion patients had significantly worse NRS and FAAM scores (p&#x202f;&#x2264;&#x202f;0.001). CONCLUSION: Calcaneal malunion after MIS-STA occurred in one-third of cases, with three descriptive factors identified and poorer outcomes observed. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: III, Comparative retrospective study with binary logistic regression analysis.

Humans

Heterogeneity in Teriflunomide Treatment Arms: A Systematic Review and Meta&#x2011;Regression of Randomised Multiple Sclerosis Trials.

BACKGROUND: Teriflunomide is widely used as an active comparator in Phase 3 randomised trials for relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS). Temporal changes in disease activity within teriflunomide-treated cohorts have not been systematically examined. OBJECTIVES: To assess temporal trends in relapse and disability outcomes across teriflunomide arms of Phase 3 multiple sclerosis (MS) trials and identify predictors of between-trial heterogeneity. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of Phase 3 randomised controlled trials including a teriflunomide arm. PubMed, Scopus, and ClinicalTrials.gov were searched up to October 2025. Annualised relapse rate (ARR) and 12- and 24-week confirmed disability worsening (CDW) were extracted together with baseline characteristics. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias 2 tool. Random-effects meta-analyses, meta-regression, and sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: Twelve teriflunomide cohorts from eight trials involving 4,900 adults with RMS were included. ARR ranged from 0.11 to 0.37 with substantial heterogeneity (I2 = 94%). Trial start year was inversely associated with ARR and explained a large proportion of between-study variability in exploratory meta-regression analyses. Confirmed disability worsening outcomes also showed substantial heterogeneity with a weaker trend toward lower event rates in more recent trials. CONCLUSION: Teriflunomide-treated trial populations have shifted toward lower relapse activity over time, and trial start year was the principal predictor of between-trial heterogeneity in ARR in exploratory analyses. These findings most plausibly reflect evolving recruitment and diagnostic practices rather than changes in drug efficacy. Accounting for these temporal dynamics is essential when interpreting outcomes from RMS trial using teriflunomide as comparator.

Humans

The Effects of Intermittent Hypoxic Training Strategies on Maximal Oxygen Uptake in Healthy Humans: A Meta-analysis with Meta-regression.

BACKGROUND: Intermittent hypoxic training aims to enhance exercise performance and health, commonly assessed through maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max). Currently applied methods are live-high train-low (LHTL), live-low train-high (LLTH) and passive hypoxic conditioning (PHC). However, within these methods, numerous modes of application exist, and effectiveness is debated. OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of LHTL, LLTH and PHC on VO2max in healthy participants, and identify factors associated with the amplitude of change in VO2max. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review with random-effects meta-analysis and meta-regression. Studies were identified through PubMed, EMBASE and Web of Science. We included controlled studies, calculating between-group standardised mean differences. Athlete and non-athlete populations were analysed separately. RoB2 was used to assess study quality and publication bias was investigated with funnel plots and the Egger's test. RESULTS: Of the 5244 identified studies, 62 were included for analysis, resulting in a sample size of 1332 participants (610 athletes, 722 non-athletes). LHTL increased VO2max significantly more than control in athletes (mean difference [MD]&#x2009;=&#x2009;2.17; 95% CI&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.77, 3.56) but not in non-athletes (MD&#x2009;=&#x2009;3.1; 95% CI&#x2009;=&#x2009;&#x2009;-&#x2009;0.23, 6.43). LLTH did not increase VO2max significantly more than control in athletes (MD&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.89; 95% CI&#x2009;=&#x2009;&#x2009;-&#x2009;0.27, 2.05) but it did in non-athletes (MD&#x2009;=&#x2009;1.70; 95% CI&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.85, 2.54). PHC did not increase VO2max significantly more than control in athletes (MD&#x2009;=&#x2009;&#x2009;-&#x2009;1.07; 95% CI&#x2009;=&#x2009;&#x2009;-&#x2009;3.51, 1.37) but it did in non-athletes (MD&#x2009;=&#x2009;2.26; 95% CI&#x2009;=&#x2009;1.00, 3.52). Multivariate meta-regressions identified the severity, duration, and frequency of hypoxic exposure to be significantly associated with the change in VO2max. CONCLUSIONS: LHTL showed a significant effect on VO2max in athletic populations while LLTH and PHC showed a significant effect on VO2max in non-athletic populations only. Future studies should target investigating which characteristics (e.g. severity, duration) of the hypoxic exposure are most beneficial.

Journal Article

Non-linear predictive modeling and comprehensive meta-analysis of rectal temperature in Santa In&#xea;s sheep: a systematic review of thermal challenges and biometerological trends.

A systematic and bibliometric review, combined with a meta-analysis, was used to adjust an equation for estimating the physiological responses of Santa In&#xea;s sheep subjected to different thermal challenges. The systematic review compiled data on physiological responses and the thermal environment, which were then used in the meta-analysis to adjust regression models. The bibliometric analysis mapped the relationships among studies, highlighting their usefulness in interpreting research findings and biases. Addressing prior methodological critiques, the core of this study involves replacing the linear approach with a non-linear segmented regression model to accurately define the Thermal Neutral Zone (TNZ). The Segmented Regression Model was crucial, establishing the upper limit of the Thermal Neutral Zone (TNZ) at an air temperature (tair) of 34.64&#xa0;&#xb0;C, where trectal begins to increase abruptly. The model, while identifying a biologically significant breakpoint, exhibited a moderate Multiple R-squared of 0.3529, highlighting the high heterogeneity and methodological variability in the current Santa In&#xea;s literature. This non-linear approach offers a biologically superior tool for identifying the onset of thermal distress.

Animals

Modelling the effects of biological intervention in a dynamical gene network.

Cellular response to environmental and internal signals can be modeled by dynamical gene regulatory networks (GRN). In the literature, three main classes of gene network models can be distinguished: (1) non-quantitative (or data-based) models which do not describe the probability distribution of gene expressions; (2) quantitative models which fully describe the probability distribution of all genes co-expression; and (3) mechanistic models which allow for a causal interpretation of gene interactions. We propose two rigorous frameworks to model gene alteration in a dynamical GRN, depending on whether the network model is quantitative or mechanistic. We explain how these models can be used for design of experiment, or, if additional alteration data are available, for validation purposes or to improve the parameter estimation of the original model. We apply these methods to the Gaussian graphical model, which is quantitative but non-mechanistic, and to mechanistic models of Bayesian networks and penalized linear regression.

Gene Regulatory Networks

Quantitative assessment of the fingerprint evidential value using machine learning.

Fingerprints as physical evidence have long supported criminal investigation and adjudication. In practice, however, fingerprint identification relies mainly on examiners' experience. Furthermore, expert opinions tend to be categorical, even though the opinions with the same conclusion could differ substantially in evidential strength. To quantitatively assess fingerprint evidential value, this study proposes a machine learning-based framework as an interpretable decision-support tool. A lightweight residual one-dimensional convolutional neural network was constructed, incorporating channel recalibration and a similarity-driven attention mechanism to learn adaptive contribution weights for different matched minutiae (minutiae for short). Controlled experiments revealed that the predicted evidential value increased with the number of minutiae and was significantly influenced by the quality of minutiae. With 10 minutiae, the mean predicted scores were 4.49, 7.00, and 9.09 for blurred, moderately blurred, and clear minutiae, respectively. Multiple regression analysis indicated that replacing a pair of blurred minutiae with a pair of clear minutiae increased the score by 0.492, whereas replacing it with a pair of moderately blurred minutiae increased the score by only 0.216. By mapping predicted scores to graded levels of evidential strength, the framework contributes to a paradigm shift from categorical expert opinions to graded ones, helping courts evaluate fingerprint evidence more scientifically.

Humans

Are Adverse Childhood Experiences Associated with Metabolic Syndrome in Patients with Severe Mental Illness?

BACKGROUND: Patients with severe mental disorders (SMD) are at substantially elevated risk for metabolic syndrome (MetS), contributing to excess cardiovascular morbidity and premature mortality. Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) have been associated with dysregulation of metabolic pathways, yet their contribution to MetS risk in SMD remains poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the association between ACEs and MetS in outpatients with bipolar disorder (BD) and schizophrenia (SZ) in clinical remission and to identify independent and incremental predictors of MetS using a hierarchical analytical framework. METHODS: This cross-sectional study included 140 outpatients with SMD (96 with BD and 44 with SZ) in clinical remission, recruited from a university hospital in Eastern Turkey. MetS was defined according to NCEP-ATP III criteria, and ACEs were assessed using the Turkish version of the Adverse Childhood Experiences Scale (ACE-TR). Hierarchical and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to examine factors associated with MetS. RESULTS: MetS was highly prevalent in this sample (46.4%). ACE-TR total score was independently and consistently associated with MetS across all hierarchical models (odds ratio [OR] range: 1.68-1.77), with each one-unit increase conferring approximately 71% higher odds in the fully adjusted model (OR = 1.71; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.26-2.32; P = 0.001). The number of hospitalizations was the only other independently associated variable (OR = 1.19; 95% CI 1.02-1.39). Sexual abuse (16.9% vs. 2.7%; P = 0.004), emotional neglect (63.1% vs. 30.7%; P < 0.001), and physical neglect (30.8% vs. 14.7%; P = 0.022) were significantly more prevalent in the MetS group. ACE-TR total score was positively correlated with waist circumference and triglyceride levels. CONCLUSION: The strong and consistent association between ACEs and MetS underscores the importance of trauma-informed care models in psychiatric practice, where metabolic comorbidity remains a leading cause of premature mortality.

Humans

Development and Validation of a Predictive Model for Identification of Cognitive Impairment Risk in Older Adults with Subjective Cognitive Decline&#xff1a;A Longitudinal Study.

BACKGROUND: Subjective cognitive decline (SCD) is a transitional state between objective cognitive impairment and cognitively intact mental status, providing a critical window for implementing preventive interventions to delay objective cognitive decline. AIMS: We aimed to develop a predictive model for SCD progression in older adults with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). This model will facilitate the identification of risk factors and establishment of targeted interventions for community-based SCD management. METHODS: Data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) was utilized in this study, extracting 18 indicators. Potential predictors selected through univariate Cox regression and LASSO regression analyses were sequentially incorporated into a multivariable Cox regression model. A nomogram was constructed to establish a predictive model. Model validation encompassed Area Under Curve (AUC) metrics for discriminative capacity, complemented by quantitative assessments using calibration curve analysis for precision verification and decision curve analysis (DCA) for clinical utility evaluation. RESULTS: A total of 1099 older adults with SCD were included in the final analysis, of whom 114 (10.3%) developed MCI. Multivariable Cox regression identified residence, marital status, educational level, social participation, gait speed, and baseline cognitive function. The model demonstrated time-dependent AUC values of 0.885, 0.830, 0.839, and 0.836 in the training set when evaluating discriminative capacity at 2-, 4-, 7-, and 9-year, respectively. The predictive model showed excellent predictive ability according to AUC, calibration curve, and DCA. CONCLUSIONS: A predictive model was created to estimate the risk of developing MCI in older individuals with SCD, offering clinician-actionable intervention benchmarks for preventive care.

Humans

Prognostic value of the Island sign for hematoma expansion and functional outcome after intracerebral hemorrhage: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: The Island Sign (IS) is a radiological finding observed in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). This meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the association between IS and both hematoma expansion (HE) and functional outcomes by comparing ICH patients with and without IS. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library for studies of intracerebral hemorrhage reporting the IS. The primary outcomes were functional status and hematoma expansion, secondary outcome was mortality. Statistical analysis was performed using RStudio, effect sizes were calculated as odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence interval (95% CIs), and heterogeneity was assessed with I2 statistics. In addition, meta-regression and sensitivity analyses were performed, and publication bias was assessed through funnel plots and Egger's regression test. RESULTS: We included 21 observational studies with a total of 9,459 patients with spontaneous ICH, 1,769 of them had IS, while 7,690 did not. The mean age was 63.5&#xa0;&#xb1;&#xa0;13.2 and 5,835 (61.7%) were male. Poor functional outcomes (OR 2.77, 95% CI: 2.14-3.58, p&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.0001, I2&#xa0;=&#xa0;4.9%) and hematoma expansion (OR 2.75, 95% CI: 1.87-4.03, p&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.0001, I2&#xa0;=&#xa0;77.4%) were substantially higher in patients with IS, as well as the overall mortality rate (OR 2.54, 95% CI: 1.55-4.17, p&#xa0;=&#xa0;0.0002, I2&#xa0;=&#xa0;0%). Meta-regression analysis showed no statistically significant association between imaging-related timing variables and hematoma expansion. Furthermore, the leave-one-out sensitivity analyses showed that no single study exerted a disproportionate influence on the overall effect for the examined outcomes, and Egger's linear regression tests were not statistically significant for both outcomes. CONCLUSION: Patients with the Island Sign are associated with higher rates of poor functional outcomes and hematoma expansion. Thus, IS is a relevant radiological finding with potential to support early risk stratification and optimize patient management and treatment selection.

Humans

Development and validation of a comprehensive prognostic model for 28-day ICU mortality in non-traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage: an analysis based on the MIMIC-IV database.

BACKGROUND: Due to the complex pathophysiology of non-traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), accurate risk prediction remains a challenge. Our aim is to develop and validate a comprehensive prognostic model that integrates demographic characteristics, vital signs, laboratory parameters, and more, to provide clinical decision-making support in real-world practice. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 785 Non-traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage patients. The cohort was randomly divided into a training set (n&#xa0;=&#xa0;549) and a validation set (n&#xa0;=&#xa0;236). Feature selection was performed using LASSO regression, followed by backward stepwise Cox regression for optimization. A nomogram was constructed based on independent predictive factors, and model performance was assessed using discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis. To prevent immortal-time bias, all predictors were anchored to a fixed early (first-24-hour) measurement window, treatment variables were modelled as binary indicators rather than cumulative exposures, and a five-model sensitivity analysis with baseline-severity adjustment was performed. RESULTS: The development of our model followed a systematic approach: first, 15 potential predictive factors were selected via LASSO regression, which were then refined to 12 independent predictors using backward stepwise Cox regression. The final predictive factors included: Ventilation, AHT, Nimodipine 60&#xa0;mg, Age, SAPS.II, Input amount, Calcium total, Platelet count, White blood cells, Anion gap, pH, and Chloride. The integrated model demonstrated excellent predictive ability for 7-day, 14-day, and 21-day mortality in both the training set (AUC: 0.972, 0.934, 0.898) and the validation set (AUC: 0.968, 0.948, 0.911). Calibration curves and decision curve analysis confirmed the model's reliability and clinical utility across different time points. We constructed a nomogram for individualized risk prediction. Univariate Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated significant stratification of survival outcomes by each predictor, while restricted cubic spline analysis revealed non-linear relationships between continuous variables and mortality risk. Random survival forest analysis identified the top three predictive factors (Nimodipine 60&#xa0;mg, Ventilation, AHT) and compared them with our full 12-variable model, confirming superior performance of the integrated model at all time points. At the 28-day primary endpoint, the model achieved a time-dependent AUC of 0.898 (training) and 0.904 (validation); after restricting predictors to the early baseline window, the leakage-controlled model retained good discrimination (validation C-index 0.803). CONCLUSIONS: Our ICU 28-day mortality prognosis model demonstrated robust performance in predicting ICU 28-day mortality in non-traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage. The model, through the nomogram, provides individualized risk assessment, aiding clinical decision-making and patient stratification.

Humans