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PubMed2026

Emerging Tree Diseases Driven by Climate Change: A Critical Perspective on Current Challenges and Future Directions.

Climate change is fundamentally reshaping forest disease dynamics through direct effects on pathogen biology and indirect impacts on host physiology. Rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events are driving disease emergence by disrupting ecological relationships between trees and their microbial associates. This review examines how climate change compounds biotic and abiotic risks to forest health, distinguishing between climate-pathogen diseases, where climatic shifts directly favor pathogen activity, and climate-stress diseases, where physiological stress predisposes trees to decline. We explore the continuum from native pathogens gaining new opportunities to exotic pathogens establishing in previously unsuitable environments while considering distinctions among endophytes and latent and nonlatent pathogens. The review emphasizes critical knowledge gaps and highlights emerging research directions, including integration of genomics, remote sensing, and predictive modeling for disease surveillance, adaptive forest management strategies balancing disease mitigation with climate adaptation and new solutions for enhancing forest resilience under accelerating environmental change.

Climate Change↗
PubMed2026

Genome-wide identification of the Glutathione Peroxidase (GPX) gene family in Taxodium distichum and functional characterization of TdGPX9 in enhancing salt tolerance.

This study systematically identified 10 TdGPX genes in Taxodium distichum, demonstrating that the nucleocytoplasmic-localized TdGPX9 plays a pivotal role in salt stress response. Overexpression of TdGPX9 significantly enhances salt tolerance by strengthening the antioxidant defense system and improving root system plasticity under stress. Taxodium distichum is a premier coniferous species renowned for its exceptional waterlogging and salinity tolerance, serving as a vital forest resource for coastal afforestation and wetland ecological restoration. Within the physiological framework of plant stress resistance, the glutathione peroxidase (GPX) family represents a cornerstone of the antioxidant enzymatic system, playing a critical role in scavenging reactive oxygen species and maintaining cellular redox homeostasis. In this study, 10 TdGPX genes were identified via a comprehensive genome-wide analysis and mapped across eight chromosomes. These genes possess a highly conserved Thioredoxin_like domain, with structural and motif analyses revealing a well-maintained arrangement of conserved motifs within each subgroup. The promoter analysis identified a sophisticated regulatory network enriched with cis-acting elements responsive to light, phytohormones, and abiotic stresses, suggesting their integration into diverse signaling pathways. Expression profiling across various tissues and embryonic developmental stages further highlighted the versatile roles of TdGPX members in plant growth and organogenesis. Notably, qRT-PCR analysis identified the nucleocytoplasmic-localized TdGPX9 as a primary respondent to salinity. Functional validation demonstrated that TdGPX9 overexpression significantly enhances salt tolerance in transgenic Arabidopsis and T. distichum callus by strengthening the antioxidant defense system. Furthermore, TdGPX9 promoted root system plasticity under stress, as evidenced by increased lateral root density. These findings provide a systematic basis for understanding the redox-regulatory mechanisms in baldcypress and offer vital genetic resources for improving forest resilience in coastal wetland ecosystems.

Salt Tolerance↗
PubMed2004

Land-use systems and resilience of tropical rain forests in the Tehuantepec Isthmus, Mexico.

Land-cover types were analyzed for 1970, 1990 and 2000 as the bases for determining land-use systems and their influence on the resilience of tropical rain forests in the Tehuantepec Isthmus, Mexico. Deforestation (DR) and mean annual transformation rates were calculated from land-cover change data; thus, the classification of land-use change processes was determined according to their impact on resilience: a) Modification, including land-cover conservation and intensification, and b) Conversion, including disturbance and regeneration processes. Regeneration processes, from secondary vegetation under extensive use, cultivated vegetation under intensive use, and cultivated or induced vegetation under extensive use to mature or secondary vegetation, have high resilience capacity. In contrast, cattle-raising is characterized by rapid expansion, long-lasting change, and intense damages; thus, recent disturbance processes, which include the conversion to cattle-raising, provoke the downfall of the traditional agricultural system, and nullify the capacity of resilience of tropical rain forest. The land-use cover change processes reveal a) the existence of four land-use systems (forestry, extensive agriculture, extensive cattle-raising, and intensive uses) and b) a trend towards the replacement of agricultural and forestry systems by extensive cattle-raising, which was consolidated during 1990-2000 (DR of evergreen tropical rain forest = 4.6%). Only the forestry system, which is not subject to deforestation, but is affected by factors such as selective timber, extraction, firewood collection, grazing, or human-induced fire, is considered to have high resilience (2 years), compared to agriculture (2-10 years) or cattle-raising (nonresilient). It is concluded that the analysis of land-use systems is essential for understanding the implications of land-use cover dynamics on forest recovery and land degradation in tropical rain forests.

Agriculture↗
PubMed2006

Resilience of southwestern Amazon forests to anthropogenic edge effects.

Anthropogenic edge effects can compromise the conservation value of mature tropical forests. To date most edge-effect research in Amazonia has concentrated on forests in relatively seasonal locations or with poor soils in the east of the basin. We present the first evaluation from the relatively richer soils of far western Amazonia on the extent to which mature forest biomass, diversity, and composition are affected by edges. In a southwestern Amazonian landscape we surveyed woody plant diversity, species composition, and biomass in 88x0.1 ha samples of unflooded forest that spanned a wide range in soil properties and included samples as close as 50 m and as distant as >10 km from anthropogenic edges. We applied Mantel tests, multiple regression on distance matrices, and other multivariate techniques to identify anthropogenic effects before and after accounting for soil factors and spatial autocorrelation. The distance to the nearest edge, access point, and the geographical center of the nearest community ("anthropogenic-distance effects") all had no detectable effect on tree biomass or species diversity. Anthropogenic-distance effects on tree species composition were also below the limits of detection and were negligible in comparison with natural environmental and spatial factors. Analysis of the data set's capacity to detect anthropogenic effects confirmed that the forests were not severely affected by edges, although because our study had few plots within 100 m of forest edges, our confidence in patterns in the immediate vicinity of edges is limited. It therefore appears that the conservation value of most "edge" forests in this region has not yet been compromised substantially. We caution that because this is one case study it should not be overinterpreted, but one explanation for our findings may be that western Amazonian tree species are naturally faster growing and more disturbance adapted than those farther east.

Adaptation, Physiological↗
PubMed1999

Primary forest dynamics in lowland dipterocarp forest at Danum Valley, Sabah, Malaysia, and the role of the understorey.

Changes in species composition in two 4-ha plots of lowland dipterocarp rainforest at Danum, Sabah, were measured over ten years (1986-1996) for trees > or = 10 cm girth at breast height (gbh). Each included a lower-slope to ridge gradient. The period lay between two drought events of moderate intensity but the forest showed no large lasting responses, suggesting that its species were well adapted to this regime. Mortality and recruitment rates were not unusual in global or regional comparisons. The forest continued to aggrade from its relatively (for Sabah) low basal area in 1986 and, together with the very open upper canopy structure and an abundance of lianas, this suggests a forest in a late stage of recovery from a major disturbance, yet one continually affected by smaller recent setbacks. Mortality and recruitment rates were not related to population size in 1986, but across subplots recruitment was positively correlated with the density and basal area of small trees (10-< 50cm gbh) forming the dense understorey. Neither rate was related to topography. While species with larger mean gbh had greater relative growth rates (rgr) than smaller ones, subplot mean recruitment rates were correlated with rgr among small trees. Separating understorey species (typically the Euphorbiaceae) from the overstorey (Dipterocarpaceae) showed marked differences in change in mortality with increasing gbh: in the former it increased, in the latter it decreased. Forest processes are centred on this understorey quasi-stratum. The two replicate plots showed a high correspondence in the mortality, recruitment, population changes and growth rates of small trees for the 49 most abundant species in common to both. Overstorey species had higher rgrs than understorey ones, but both showed considerable ranges in mortality and recruitment rates. The supposed trade-off in traits, viz slower rgr, shade tolerance and lower population turnover in the understorey group versus faster potential growth rate, high light responsiveness and high turnover in the overstorey group, was only partly met, as some understorey species were also very dynamic. The forest at Danum, under such a disturbance-recovery regime, can be viewed as having a dynamic equilibrium in functional and structural terms. A second trade-off in shade-tolerance versus drought-tolerance is suggested for among the understorey species. A two-storey (or vertical component) model is proposed where the understorcy-overstorey species' ratio of small stems (currently 2:1) is maintained by a major feedback process. The understorey appears to be an important part of this forest, giving resilience against drought and protecting the overstorey saplings in the long term. This view could be valuable for understanding forest responses to climate change where drought frequency in Borneo is predicted to intensify in the coming decades.

Ecosystem↗
PubMed2006

Biodiversity and resilience of arthropod communities after fire disturbance in temperate forests.

Changes in ecosystem functions following disturbances are of central concern in ecology and a challenge for ecologists is to understand the factors that affect the resilience of community structures and ecosystem functions. In many forest ecosystems, one such important natural disturbance is fire. The aim of this study was to understand the variation of resilience in six functional groups of invertebrates in response to different fire frequencies in southern Switzerland. We measured resilience by analysing arthropod species composition, abundance and diversity in plots where the elapsed time after single or repeated fires, as determined by dendrochronology, varied. We compared data from these plots with data from plots that had not burned recently and defined high resilience as the rapid recovery of the species composition to that prior to fire. Pooling all functional groups showed that they were more resilient to single fires than to repeated events, recovering 6-14 years after a single fire, but only 17-24 years after the last of several fires. Flying zoophagous and phytophagous arthropods were the most resilient groups. Pollinophagous and epigaeic zoophagous species showed intermediate resilience, while ground-litter saprophagous and saproxylophagous arthropods clearly displayed the lowest resilience to fire. Their species composition 17-24 years post-burn still differed markedly from that of the unburned control plots. Depending on the fire history of a forest plot, we found significant differences in the dominance hierarchy among invertebrate species. Any attempt to imitate natural disturbances, such as fire, through forest management must take into account the recovery times of biodiversity, including functional group composition, to ensure the conservation of multiple taxa and ecosystem functions in a sustainable manner.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Preemptive and salvage harvesting of New England forests: when doing nothing is a viable alternative.

One unexpected consequence of natural disturbances in forested areas is that managers often initiate activities that may impose greater ecosystem impacts than the disturbances themselves. By salvage logging areas affected by windstorms or other impacts, by harvesting host trees in advance of insect infestation or disease, or by preemptively harvesting forests in an attempt to improve their resilience to future disturbances and stresses, managers initiate substantial changes in the ecosystem structure and function. Much of this activity is undertaken in the absence of information on the qualitative and quantitative differences between disturbance impacts and harvesting. To provide insight for such decisions we evaluated the ecosystem consequences of two major disturbance processes in New England (US.A.)--intense windstorms and invasive pests and pathogens-and contrasted them with impacts from preemptive and salvage harvesting. Despite dramatic physical changes in forest structure resulting from hurricane impacts and insect infestation, little disruption of biogeochemical processes or other ecosystem functions typically follows these disturbances. Indeed, the physical and organic structures produced by these disturbances are important natural features providing habitat and landscape heterogeneity that are often missing due to centuries of land use. From an ecosystem perspective there are strong arguments against preemptive and salvage logging or the attempt through silvicultural means to improve the resistance or resilience of forests to disturbance and stress. There are often valid motivations for salvage or preemptive logging including financial considerations, human safety, and a desire to shape the long-term composition and resource-production characteristics of forests. Nonetheless, there are many ecological benefits derived from leaving forests alone when they are affected or threatened by disturbances and pest and pathogen outbreaks.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Demography of northern flying squirrels informs ecosystem management of western interior forests.

We studied northern flying squirrel (Glaucomys sabrinus) demography in the eastern Washington Cascade Range to test hypotheses about regional and local abundance patterns and to inform managers of the possible effects of fire and fuels management on flying squirrels. We quantified habitat characteristics and squirrel density, population trends, and demography in three typical forest cover types over a four-year period. We had 2034 captures of flying squirrels over 41 000 trap nights from 1997 through 2000 and marked 879 squirrels for mark-recapture population analysis. Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forest appeared to be poorer habitat for flying squirrels than young or mature mixed-conifer forest. About 35% fewer individuals were captured in open pine forest than in dry mixed-conifer Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and grand fir (Abies grandis) forests. Home ranges were 85% larger in pine forest (4.6 ha) than in mixed-conifer forests (2.5 ha). Similarly, population density (Huggins estimator) in ponderosa pine forest was half (1.1 squirrels/ha) that of mixed-conifer forest (2.2 squirrels/ha). Tree canopy cover was the single best correlate of squirrel density (r = 0.77), with an apparent threshold of 55% canopy cover separating stands with low- from high-density populations. Pradel estimates of annual recruitment were lower in open pine (0.28) than in young (0.35) and mature (0.37) forest. High recruitment was most strongly associated with high understory plant species richness and truffle biomass. Annual survival rates ranged from 45% to 59% and did not vary among cover types. Survival was most strongly associated with understory species richness and forage lichen biomass. Maximum snow depth had a strong negative effect on survival. Rate of per capita increase showed a density-dependent response. Thinning and prescribed burning in ponderosa pine and dry mixed conifer forests to restore stable fire regimes and forest structure might reduce flying squirrel densities at stand levels by reducing forest canopy, woody debris, and the diversity or biomass of understory plants, truffles, and lichens. Those impacts might be ameliorated by patchy harvesting and the retention of large trees, woody debris, and mistletoe brooms. Negative stand-level impacts would be traded for increased resistance and resilience of dry-forest landscapes to now-common, large-scale stand replacement fires.

Animals↗
PubMed2026

Sugar kelp (Saccharina latissima) population genetics map onto geographic distance and oceanographic features across coastal Maine.

Sugar kelp (Saccharina latissima; order Laminariales) plays a vital role in kelp forest ecosystems, as well as an expanding kelp aquaculture industry, in the Gulf of Maine, United States. However, ocean warming is eroding the resilience of Maine's kelp forests and may be compromising their local genetic diversity, with impacts on population structure and gene flow. Here, we used genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data to assess the genetic diversity, structure, and connectivity of S. latissima populations at 11 outer coastal sites spanning the historical range of kelp forests in Maine. Our analyses identified moderate genetic diversity and limited inbreeding within sites (average heterozygosity: 0.27). Further, they revealed that three clusters comprising four genetically distinct populations exist across the study region. Population structure was strongly associated with geographic distance and oceanographic features, as supported by principal coordinate analysis, FST calculations, Bayesian clustering, and spore dispersal modeling. Lastly, our outlier analysis identified genes potentially under selection. Thus, our findings highlight distinct, genetically unique kelp populations along Maine's coast and emphasize the need for regional management strategies that support both ecosystem resilience and sustainable aquaculture under climate change.

Gulf of Maine↗
PubMed2004

Contrasting simulated past and future responses of the Amazonian forest to atmospheric change.

Modelling simulations of palaeoclimate and past vegetation form and function can contribute to global change research by constraining predictions of potential earth system responses to future warming, and by providing useful insights into the ecophysiological tolerances and threshold responses of plants to varying degrees of atmospheric change. We contrasted HadCM3LC simulations of Amazonian forest at the last glacial maximum (LGM; 21 kyr ago) and a Younger Dryas-like period (13-12 kyr ago) with predicted responses of future warming to provide estimates of the climatic limits under which the Amazon forest remains relatively stable. Our simulations indicate that despite lower atmospheric CO2 concentrations and increased aridity during the LGM, Amazonia remains mostly forested, and that the cooling climate of the Younger Dryas-like period in fact causes a trend toward increased above-ground carbon balance relative to today. The vegetation feedbacks responsible for maintaining forest integrity in past climates (i.e. decreased evapotranspiration and reduced plant respiration) cannot be maintained into the future. Although elevated atmospheric CO2 contributes to a positive enhancement of plant carbon and water balance, decreased stomatal conductance and increased plant and soil respiration cause a positive feedback that amplifies localized drying and climate warming. We speculate that the Amazonian forest is currently near its critical resiliency threshold, and that even minor climate warming may be sufficient to promote deleterious feedbacks on forest integrity.

Atmosphere↗
PubMed2005

A phyto-sociological analysis of the distribution of riverine tsetse flies in Burkina Faso.

In Burkina Faso, Glossina palpalis gambiensis Vanderplank and G. tachinoides Westwood (Diptera: Glossinidae) are the main cyclic vectors of trypanosomiasis. The vegetation type along river banks is an important factor determining the distribution and abundance of these tsetse. The following work investigated the relation between the plant species present (including the disturbance level) and tsetse distribution and abundance, using three ecotypes, described by P.C. Morel in 1978. These were the Guinean, Sudano-Guinean and Sudanese gallery forests. In the Mouhoun River basin, these three ecotypes are found successively from upstream to downstream. Berlinia grandiflora, Syzygium guineense and Cola laurifolia and finally Acacia seyal and Mitragyna inermis were the best indicators for the Guinean, Sudano-Guinean and Sudanese gallery forest ecotypes, respectively, as suggested by Morel. However, other species such as Pterocarpus santalinoides and Mimosa pigra were not ecotype specific. Trap catches confirmed that G. palpalis and G. tachinoides are predominant in Guinean and Sudanese gallery forests, respectively, and that both species are well represented in the Sudano-Guinean ecotype. Tsetse densities dropped significantly in disturbed Sudano-Guinean and Sudanese gallery forest sites. However, this was not the case for both species in Guinean or for G. tachinoides in half-disturbed Sudanese gallery forest sites, confirming their high resilience to human-made changes. The importance of a detailed consideration of riverine ecotypes when predicting tsetse densities is discussed.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Global change and the boreal forest: thresholds, shifting states or gradual change?

Changes in boreal climate of the magnitude projected for the 21st century have always caused vegetation changes large enough to be societally important. However, the rates and patterns of vegetation change are difficult to predict. We review evidence suggesting that these vegetation changes may be gradual at the northern forest limit or where seed dispersal limits species distribution. However, forest composition may be quite resilient to climate change in the central portions of a species range until some threshold is surpassed. At this point, changes can be rapid and unexpected, often causing a switch to very different ecosystem types. Many of these triggers for change are amenable to management, suggesting that our choice of policies in the coming decades will substantially influence the ecological and societal consequences of current climatic change.

Arctic Regions↗
PubMed2005

Soil delta15N patterns in old-growth forests of southern Chile as integrator for N-cycling.

Old-growth forests of southern Chile represent an important reserve of temperate (rain) forests in the world. Wetter and colder forest ecosystems appear to be more efficient in conserving and recycling N such that mostly non-plant available N species are lost, which could be indicated by more depleted delta15N values of the soil and plants. Hydrological N loss from the old-growth forests in southern Chile occurs mainly via dissolved organic nitrogen and not via dissolved inorganic N. Forest disturbances (e.g. fire, clear-cutting or enhanced N deposition) cause (abrupt) changes in ecosystem N-cycling processes. In this study, we hypothesized that delta15N signatures of soil profiles under old-growth forests could be used as an integrator for ecosystem N-cycling, and changes of these delta15N profiles could be valuable to assess ecosystem resilience towards disturbances. Six old-growth forests were selected in the phytogeographical region of the Valdivian rain forest in southern Chile. One of the sites has been partly burned in February 2002. First, we observed that ecosystems with higher mean annual precipitation and lower mean annual temperature were relatively more depleted in 15N. Secondly, we found that a forest fire caused a 100-fold increase of the nitrate export and induced an enrichment of the soil delta15N signal in the upper 20 cm.

Chile↗
PubMed2005

Fire regenerative syndromes of forest woody species across fire and climatic gradients.

Community resilience after fire is determined by species' ability to regenerate through two main mechanisms growth of new sprouts (resprouter species) and germination from surviving seed banks or from seeds arriving from neighbouring populations (seeder species). Both the mechanisms are present in Mediterranean communities. The occurrence of both the types in a community depends on fire history and the bio-geographical history determining the available species pool. Regenerative traits also covary with other functional attributes associated with resource acquisition and stress tolerance. As post-fire regenerative responses can be related to various ecological factors other than fire, we tested the hypothesis of a different proportional representation of post-fire regenerative syndromes in forest woody species along a climatic gradient in Catalonia (NE Spain) ranging from Mediterranean to temperate-boreal climates. Specifically, we expected seeder species to become less common with colder and moister conditions while resprouters would not be so influenced by the climatic gradient. We also tested the hypothesis of change in the relative abundance of regenerative syndromes in relation to recent fire history. We analysed a large database obtained from extensive forestry surveys and remote sensing fire records. After correction for spatial autocorrelation, we found an increase in the proportion of seeder species under more Mediterranean conditions and a decrease in fire-sensitive species (with no efficient mechanisms of post-fire recovery) in moister conditions. Resprouter species were similarly present across the whole gradient. A similar pattern was observed after excluding recently burnt plots. Therefore, post-fire regenerative syndromes segregate along the climatic gradient. Recent fires reduced the occurrence of fire-sensitive species and increased the proportion of seeder species. No significant effect was observed on resprouter species. Fire has a sorting effect, shaping the occurrence of species with different regenerative traits. Overall, fire seems to explain better the variability of the proportion of fire-sensitive species and climate the variability of seeder species. In addition, other factors (forestry practices and the covariation between regenerative and functional attributes) are likely to contribute to the regional pattern of regenerative syndromes.

Climate↗
PubMed2006

The ethnoecology of Caiçara metapopulations (Atlantic Forest, Brazil): ecological concepts and questions.

The Atlantic Forest is represented on the coast of Brazil by approximately 7.5% of remnants, much of these concentrated on the country's SE coast. Within these southeastern remnants, we still find the coastal Caiçaras who descend from Native Indians and Portuguese Colonizers. The maintenance of such populations, and their existence in spite of the deforestation that occurred on the Atlantic Forest coast, deserves special attention and analysis. In this study, I address, in particular, the Caiçaras who live on the coast of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro States, illustrating with examples of coastal inhabitants from other areas, such as Bahia State (NE coast) and of other forested areas (riverine caboclos of the Amazon). The major focus of this study, based on previous research, performed since 1986 in several populations or villages of the Atlantic Forest coast, is to understand the resilience of the Caiçaras, which is analyzed using ecological concepts, such as metapopulation, resilience and adaptive cycles. The Caiçara populations are located on islands (Búzios, Comprida, Grande, Ilhabela, Jaguanum, Gipóia) and on the coast (Bertioga, Puruba, Picinguaba, among others). Information gathered about the Caiçaras regarding the economic cycles of the local regions, along with ecological, historical and economic data available, are used to understand such resilience, and are complemented with comparative examples from the Brazilian Amazon and with variables such as the local restrictions imposed by environmental governmental agencies.

Anthropology, Cultural↗
PubMed2026

Tree Killer, Qu'est-ce Que C'est? Insights From Forest Pathogen Genomes.

Forests are central to planetary health but are increasingly challenged by emerging diseases driven by climate change, global trade, and anthropogenic disturbance. Despite the apparent resilience of long-lived, genetically diverse tree hosts, forest ecosystems have repeatedly experienced landscape-level pathogen-driven transformations. Advances in genomics, transcriptomics, and functional biology have transformed our understanding of how fungal and oomycete pathogens interact with their hosts across a continuum of lifestyles, from saprotrophy and necrotrophy to biotrophy. Here, we synthesize insights from comparative and population genomics and functional studies across diverse forest pathosystems to examine the traits that characterize successful tree pathogens. We highlight how lifestyle plasticity, adaptations to woody tissues, vector-mediated transmission, and biotrophic stealth enable pathogens to colonize perennial hosts and persist over long temporal scales. We further examine how genome plasticity, hybridization, and horizontal gene transfer generate adaptive potential that often outpaces host evolutionary responses under current environmental change. Finally, we discuss emerging genomic tools, including biosurveillance, machine learning-based classification, and genome editing, that are beginning to link genotype to phenotype and inform assessments of disease risk. By integrating genomic, ecological, and evolutionary perspectives, this review outlines general principles governing forest pathogen success and identifies priorities for future research aimed at improving understanding, early detection, and management of forest diseases in a changing world.

Trees↗
PubMed2004

Resilience and vulnerability of northern regions to social and environmental change.

The arctic tundra and boreal forest were once considered the last frontiers on earth because of their vast expanses remote from agricultural land-use change and industrial development. These regions are now, however, experiencing environmental and social changes that are as rapid as those occurring anywhere on earth. This paper summarizes the role of northern regions in the global system and provides a blueprint for assessing the factors that govern their sensitivity to social and environmental change.

Arctic Regions↗
PubMed2005

Wildfires, complexity, and highly optimized tolerance.

Recent, large fires in the western United States have rekindled debates about fire management and the role of natural fire regimes in the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems. This real-world experience parallels debates involving abstract models of forest fires, a central metaphor in complex systems theory. Both real and modeled fire-prone landscapes exhibit roughly power law statistics in fire size versus frequency. Here, we examine historical fire catalogs and a detailed fire simulation model; both are in agreement with a highly optimized tolerance model. Highly optimized tolerance suggests robustness tradeoffs underlie resilience in different fire-prone ecosystems. Understanding these mechanisms may provide new insights into the structure of ecological systems and be key in evaluating fire management strategies and sensitivities to climate change.

Computer Simulation↗