Wildfires, complexity, and highly optimized tolerance.

Max A Moritz; Marco E Morais; Lora A Summerell; J M Carlson; John Doyle

doi:10.1073/pnas.0508985102

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Wildfires, complexity, and highly optimized tolerance.

Max A Moritz·Marco E Morais·Lora A Summerell·J M Carlson·John Doyle

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Abstract

Recent, large fires in the western United States have rekindled debates about fire management and the role of natural fire regimes in the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems. This real-world experience parallels debates involving abstract models of forest fires, a central metaphor in complex systems theory. Both real and modeled fire-prone landscapes exhibit roughly power law statistics in fire size versus frequency. Here, we examine historical fire catalogs and a detailed fire simulation model; both are in agreement with a highly optimized tolerance model. Highly optimized tolerance suggests robustness tradeoffs underlie resilience in different fire-prone ecosystems. Understanding these mechanisms may provide new insights into the structure of ecological systems and be key in evaluating fire management strategies and sensitivities to climate change.

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Computer Simulation Ecosystem Fires Models, Theoretical Comparative Study Journal Article Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

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Max A Moritz, Marco E Morais, Lora A Summerell, J M Carlson, John Doyle. 2005-12-06. Wildfires, complexity, and highly optimized tolerance.. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0508985102

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