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PubMed2026

Whole-exome characterization of host genetic variation in HIV-associated genes across the high-prevalence Mizo population, Northeast India.

BACKGROUND: The Mizoram state of Northeast India has one of the highest HIV prevalence rates in Asia, yet the host genetic factors influencing HIV susceptibility in this Tibeto-Burman population remain uncharacterised. METHODS: We performed whole-exome sequencing using Illumina NovaSeq 6000, mean coverage 100X on 76 HIV-negative Mizo individuals. Variants were called using GATK HaplotypeCaller v4.3 against GRCh38p14, annotated with ANNOVAR, and filtered using hard-quality thresholds (QD ≥ 2, SOR ≤ 3, MQ ≥ 40, DP ≥ 10, GQ ≥ 20). The allele frequencies were compared against gnomAD v2.1.1 population databases. Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium was assessed using the Wigginton exact test with Bonferroni correction. RESULTS: Post-quality filtering resulted in 12,011 sample-variants across 2,821 unique positions from 36 HIV-associated loci (33 protein-coding genes, 2 chemokine ligands, and 3 lncRNA targets). Of these, 784 observations (51 unique positions) were high-impact nonsynonymous or loss-of-function variants. ADAR rs2229857 (p.K384R, NM_015840) was the most frequently observed variant (Mizo carrier frequency = 0.895; 95% CI: 0.806-0.946). CXCR1 rs16858808 (p.R335C) showed the greatest population enrichment (Mizo carrier frequency = 0.197; 95% CI: 0.123-0.300; 7.65-fold carrier-frequency enrichment versus gnomAD South Asian; CADD = 15.60). Sixteen of 20 tested variants deviated from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium after Bonferroni correction (p < 0.0025), predominantly showing excess homozygosity consistent with the endogamous Mizo population. The protective variant CCR5-Δ32 was absent in all the 76 individuals tested. CONCLUSION: This first whole-exome characterization of HIV host genes in the Mizo population identifies CXCR1 rs16858808 as the most population-enriched functional variant and reveals a pervasive endogamy signature. These findings provide a population-specific genetic framework for future HIV susceptibility studies and ART pharmacogenomics research.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Genetic Diversity Analysis of Red Fox Populations (Vulpes vulpes L., 1758) in Natural and Anthropogenic Isolation.

This study presents a comparative analysis of the genetic structure and diversity of three red fox (Vulpes vulpes L.) populations representing different microevolutionary scenarios: panmixia (free-ranging Belarusian foxes), geographic isolation (free-ranging Scottish foxes), and anthropogenic selection (farm-bred foxes). Using a validated set of STR markers, multivariate statistical analysis was conducted to assess the genetic structure and the degree of genetic erosion across the studied groups. The wild red fox population in Belarus has been shown to maintain a state close to panmixia (PHWE = 0.090), characterized by a high effective population size (Ne = 694) and high allelic diversity. The island population from Scotland exhibits moderate gene pool depletion (Ne = 75.9) and a pronounced heterozygote deficiency (FIS = 0.18). Critical genetic erosion, which was characterized by a minimal effective population size (Ne = 60.2) and allelic fixation, was detected in the farm-bred group. The genetic distance between farm-bred and wild foxes (FST = 0.279; p = 0.001) reflects both the phylogeographic divergence between the Nearctic ancestors of farmed lineages and Palearctic wild populations, and the consequences of prolonged anthropogenic isolation, genetic drift, and selective breeding. These data indicate that artificial isolation and the impacts of genetic drift and targeted selection lead to a substantial depletion of the species' adaptive potential.

Animals↗

PubMed2026

Mitochondrial DNA diversity in Ecuadorian populations: Recurrence of variant 16136 within haplogroup B2.

The identification of lineage-defining variants, frequently found in the coding region of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), is essential for refining haplogroup classification. Most mtDNA studies in South American populations have focused on the control region (CR), which has provided important insights into population structure and maternal lineage origins, although information needed for more robust phylogenetic resolution has been neglected. This study investigates the maternal genetic structure of Ecuadorian populations by combining CR and whole mitogenome analyses. Sequences from the mtDNA CR were obtained from 461 individuals (253 Mestizos and 208 Native Americans), while complete mitogenomes were sequenced for 127 individuals to improve phylogenetic resolution by identifying lineage-defining variants present in coding region. Most mtDNA haplogroups in the two population groups analyzed were of Native American origin (A2, B2, B4, C1, D1, D4), with significant differences in the distribution of specific lineages between them. Among Mestizos, African haplogroups (all within the L branches) and Eurasian haplogroups (H, K, R, U) were detected at low frequencies, whereas no African lineages were observed among Native Americans. The results obtained highlighted a heterogeneity within Ecuadorian populations that must be considered when developing mtDNA haplotype databases for forensic purposes. Whole mitogenome sequences enabled the identification of variants that refined haplogroup classifications, provided a more accurate reconstruction of the maternal genetic diversity, and improve the discrimination between Native American and Asian maternal lineages within haplogroup B4b.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Transcriptomic responses to developmental temperature in two field-collected Spodoptera exigua populations from Korea.

The beet armyworm, Spodoptera exigua, is a polyphagous insect whose development and seasonal occurrence are strongly influenced by temperature. However, transcriptomic responses to developmental thermal regimes remain insufficiently characterized in field-collected populations. In this study, we compared two Korean field-collected populations of S. exigua: a Haenam population collected in May and initially maintained at 15 ± 1 °C (HN), and a Jeju population collected in July and initially maintained at 27 ± 1 °C (JJ). F1 larvae from each population were reared under three fluctuating developmental temperature regimes: low (15-21 °C), middle (21-27 °C), and high (27-33 °C), followed by RNA-seq analysis. Differential expression analysis revealed population-associated variation in transcriptomic responses across developmental temperatures. HN exhibited a larger number of differentially expressed genes under the high-temperature regime, suggesting stronger transcriptomic sensitivity to elevated developmental temperature. Functional enrichment analyses identified population-associated differences in pathways related to heat response, oxidative metabolism, cytoskeletal organization, cuticle-associated processes, lipid metabolism, and immune-related functions. In JJ, heat-response and cuticle-related expression patterns were more prominent under warmer developmental conditions, whereas HN showed broader changes in stress- and metabolism-associated pathways under high temperature. Overall, this study provides a comparative transcriptomic analysis of two field-collected S. exigua populations under different developmental temperature regimes and identifies RNA-seq-based molecular response patterns associated with population-specific thermal response profiles.

Animals↗

PubMed2026

The effectiveness of digital health interventions for type 2 diabetes in underserved populations: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

This systematic review and meta-analysis of 12 randomized controlled trials (1835 participants) evaluated whether digital health interventions (DHIs) improve glycemic control among underserved adults with type 2 diabetes (T2D), including racial/ethnic minority, low-income, Medicaid-insured, rural, and low-health-literacy populations. Searches of PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials from inception to December 20, 2025 identified eligible parallel-group randomized controlled trials reporting change in hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c). Two reviewers independently screened studies, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias using the revised Cochrane Risk of Bias 2 tool. Random-effects meta-analysis showed that DHIs produced a modest but statistically significant HbA1c reduction versus control (mean difference, -0.37 %age points; 95% CI, -0.44 to -0.30; P < .0001; equivalent to -4.0 mmol/mol). Heterogeneity was moderate-to-substantial (I² = 69.9%). Subgroup analyses suggested directionally similar effects by population group and intervention modality, but interpretation was limited by study-level data and the small number of trials. Funnel-plot inspection and Egger's test (P = .31) did not suggest major small-study effects, although power was limited. Overall certainty for HbA1c was moderate. DHIs may support more equitable diabetes care when implemented with cultural tailoring, language access, digital-literacy support, and technology-access safeguards.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Assessment of Genetic Diversity and Population Structure on Azadirachta indica A. Juss. in an Urban Metropolitan: Ahmedabad, India.

Azadirachta indica (A. indica) A. Juss., commonly known as Neem, is a valuable multipurpose tree with profound medicinal properties and socioeconomic importance, widely recognized since ancient Ayurvedic times. Despite its prominence, knowledge about its genetic diversity within the metropolitan area of Ahmedabad is limited. This study marks the first in-depth exploration of the genetic diversity and population structure of A. indica in Ahmedabad. The authenticity of the species was validated through DNA barcoding, and a Geographical Information System (GIS) was used to collect the samples. A total of 35 A. indica accessions were analyzed using five Inter Simple Sequence Repeat (ISSR) primers. Genetic diversity and population structure were evaluated using Inter Simple Sequence Repeat (ISSR) markers through polymorphism assessment, clustering, ordination, and Bayesian population structure analyses. ISSRs revealed a high level of polymorphism (75.66%), indicating substantial genetic variability among accessions. An analysis of genetic diversity indices revealed low to moderate diversity (Hs = 0.14, Ht = 0.217, I = 0.217). Analysis of Molecular Variance (AMOVA) analysis depicted 81% variation within the population and 19% among the population. Low to moderate genetic differentiation (Gst = 0.319) and moderate gene flow (Nm = 1.06) indicated that urban development has not hindered gene flow among populations. Mantel's test revealed a weak but significant correlation between genetic and geographic distances, suggesting limited isolation by distance. The estimated ΔK using STRUCTURE exhibited two subpopulations, representing two gene pools for A. indica accessions (K = 2). Collectively, these patterns indicate that urbanization has not severely disrupted genetic connectivity in A. indica, reflecting its resilience and adaptive potential in a metropolitan environment. These findings provide pivotal knowledge for further understanding the genetic diversity and population structure of A. indica in one of the fastest-growing cities in India, which can be utilized for new breeding programmes, sustainable development and future conservation strategies around the globe.

India↗

PubMed2026

Diversity and population connectivity of members of the family Eunicidae inhabiting deep-water corals in the North Atlantic.

Eunicid polychaetes are often found in association with Cold Water Corals (CWCs), even establishing symbiotic relationships, such as those described between Desmophyllum pertusum and Eunice norvegica. While genetic connectivity of CWCs across the North Atlantic has been widely studied, little is known about their associated fauna in this regard. Here, we present a study combining a focused analysis of the genetic and genomic connectivity of E. norvegica with a regional assessment of the distribution and evolutionary relationships of three CWC-associated eunicid species from the Cantabrian Sea and the North of the United Kingdom (190-1,230 m depth). An integrative approach using genetic (16S, COI and 18S), morphological and ecological data allowed the identification of the eunicids studied, with new records of Eunice cf. nicidioformis and Leodice cf. antarctica in the Cantabrian Sea, as well as previously undocumented associations with CWC species. In addition, RADseq data contributed to the delimitation of the closely related species E. norvegica and Eunice philocorallia. Moreover, the genetic connectivity of E. norvegica was studied trough a RADseq (1,067 neutral SNPs) approach. Our results indicate a single panmictic population across approximately 2,000 km, suggesting that oceanographic currents facilitate passive dispersal of E. norvegica lecithotrophic larvae, aided by coral host stepping-stones. The connectivity patterns observed for E. norvegica mirror those of D. pertusum, on which the worm is ecologically dependent. Our study highlights the importance of using integrated genetic, morphological and ecological data to characterise and delineate understudied CWC-associated species and improve our understanding of their dispersal capabilities and genetic connectivity to inform future conservation recommendations.

Animals↗

PubMed2026

Genetic Ancestry and Carrier Variant Frequency Enrichment in a Colombian Andean Population: Insights From the Eje Cafetero.

Colombia is one of the most genetically diverse populations in Latin America, and its demographic process has promoted the persistence and local enrichment of deleterious alleles, increasing the frequency of autosomal recessive disorders, particularly in semi-isolated Andean populations such as the Eje Cafetero. However, exome-based reference data from this region remain scarce, limiting ancestry-aware variant interpretation and carrier screening strategies. We aimed to characterize the ancestry proportions of this population using exome data, and to estimate the carrier frequency and distribution of pathogenic and likely pathogenic (P/LP) variants in clinically relevant recessive genes. We conducted a cross-sectional study with whole-exome sequencing (WES) in 316 unrelated individuals from the Colombian Eje Cafetero. P/LP variants were evaluated in 454 genes associated with autosomal recessive disorders. The global ancestry proportions were estimated using a validated panel of 250 exome-compatible ancestry-informative markers. Carrier frequencies were compared against Non-Finnish Europeans (NFE) and Admixed Americans (AMX) from gnomAD v4. The cohort showed predominant European ancestry (mean 51%), followed by Native American (36%) and African (13%) components. We identified 151 carriers of 89 distinct pathogenic variants across autosomal recessive genes. The most frequent variants were SERPINA1 c.863A>T (5.5%), CFTR c.1210-11T>G (3.5%), and PYGM c.1094C>T (1.5%). Also, recurrent variants were significantly enriched compared with both NFE and AMX populations, supporting regional founder effects. This study represents one of the most comprehensive exome-based genetic characterizations of the Colombian Eje Cafetero, revealing ancestry-specific enrichment of clinically relevant autosomal recessive variants driven by founder effects.

Female↗

PubMed2026

From population to individual: advocating personalised digital tools for heat-health early warning in a changing climate.

Escalating heat extremes under climate change are imposing substantial health burdens, with 2023 and 2024 consecutively breaking global temperature records. Mounting evidence suggests that heatwaves elevate the risks of hospitalisation and mortality across multiple disease categories, including ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and acute kidney injury. Nonetheless, most existing heat-health warning systems remain primarily reliant on population-level predictions, and considering individual differences and disease-specific considerations when defining warning levels would benefit the effectiveness of early prevention for high-risk groups. In this Viewpoint, which is based on the framework of precision public health-delivering the right intervention to the right population at the right time-we propose a framework for personalised digital heat-health early warning tools comprising three dimensions: individualised, risk-stratified prediction models that generate tiered early warnings; personalised health prompts coupled with theory-informed behavioural interventions; and adaptive, equity-oriented alert delivery mechanisms tailored to diverse populations. Such tools have the potential to bridge precision disease prevention and climate adaptation, thereby helping to mitigate heat exposure risks and disease burdens, particularly among high-risk populations. Future implementation research will be essential to address substantial challenges related to feasibility, validation, and equity.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2026

Population-level impact of HPV vaccination: a global systematic review of ecological, cross-sectional, and cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV) causes approximately 4.5% of cancers globally, with the highest burden in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Since their introduction in 2006, HPV vaccination programs have led to substantial declines in HPV-related outcomes, although impact varies across settings. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted a systematic review to evaluate the population-level impact of HPV vaccination on HPV infection, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or higher (CIN2+), genital warts, invasive cervical cancer (ICC), and oropharyngeal cancer (OPC), and examined the influence of coverage, age at initiation, and vaccine type. The review followed PRISMA 2020. RESULTS: Of 13,549 records screened, 63 were included: 9 assessed HPV infection, 24 on CIN2+, 25 on genital warts, and 7 on ICC. Greatest reductions were observed in settings with at least 70% coverage and early vaccination prior to sexual debut, typically achieved through school-based programs. Reported declines ranged from 58-100% for HPV infection, 30-88% for CIN2+, 60-90% for genital warts, and 70-88% for ICC. CONCLUSIONS: HPV vaccination offers strong protection, especially when delivered early and at high coverage within schools. Expanding access and prioritizing underserved populations are essential to achieving global cancer prevention goals. Limitations include heterogeneity across designs, outcome definitions, and follow-up.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Family-Wise Error Rate Control in Clinical Trials With Overlapping Populations.

We consider clinical trials with multiple, overlapping patient populations that test multiple treatment policies specifically tailored to these populations. Such designs may lead to multiplicity issues, as false statements will affect several populations. For type I error control, often the family-wise error rate (FWER) is controlled, which is the probability to reject at least one true null hypothesis. If the joint distribution of the test statistics is known, the FWER level can be exhausted by determining critical values or adjusted-levels. The adjustment is typically done under the common ANOVA assumptions. However, the performed tests are then only valid under the rather strong assumption of homogeneous null effects, that is, when the null hypothesis applies to all subpopulations and their intersections. We show that under cancelling null effects, when heterogeneous effects cancel out in some or all subpopulations, this procedure does not provide FWER control. We also suggest different alternatives and compare them in terms of FWER control and their power.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Sexual selection purges mutation load, but not overall genetic diversity, decreasing vulnerability to extinction.

Theory suggests sexual selection will enhance population viability by purging deleterious alleles. However, direct genomic evidence for this fundamental idea is scarce and contradictory. We combined long-term experimental evolution with whole-genome resequencing to directly test how sexual selection affects mutation load, genomic divergence, and extinction risk in small populations (maximum Ne = 40) of Tribolium castaneum. After 156 generations, populations evolving under strong sexual selection carried substantially fewer deleterious alleles than populations under weak sexual selection, based on both individual-level estimates of missense and nonsense variants and population-level Rxy analyses, indicating more efficient purging of deleterious alleles. In contrast, nucleotide diversity and runs of homozygosity were similar across treatments, indicating that purging acted most strongly on deleterious variation, and that reduced mutation load in these small populations under strong sexual selection was not explained by demographic effects. Importantly, population-level mutation load estimates best explained extinction risk under inbreeding, directly linking sexual selection to purging and population viability. Genome scans of high and low sexual selection populations revealed peaks of divergence, which included genes involved in courtship, sex discrimination, and seminal fluid proteins. Our results provide direct genomic evidence that sexual selection can reduce mutation load without eroding standing genetic diversity and thus adaptive potential, while driving adaptive divergence in reproductive traits. This beneficial purging may help explain the widespread prevalence of sexual reproduction in nature despite inherent costs and have important ramifications as to how we manage populations of conservation concern.

Animals↗

PubMed2026

Liver Cancer Risk and Incidence Attributable to Human Immunodeficiency Virus: A Meta-Analysis and Population-Attributable Modeling Study of Over 1.2 Million Individuals.

HIV-induced immune suppression and chronic inflammation elevate the risk of cancer progression. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies published between January 1, 1984 and October 13, 2023 to assess the association between HIV infection and liver cancer. People living with HIV (PLHIV) had a higher risk (pooled relative risk = 3.36, 95% CI: 2.72-4.15). The global PAF for HIV-attributed liver cancer was 1.43% in 2019, with a three-fold increase over the past 30 years. The Asia-Pacific region recorded the second highest new cases of HIV-attributed liver cancer in 2019, and the highest age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) in Eastern and Southern Africa. Particularly, the ASIR of HIV-attributed liver cancer increased rapidly in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, with the highest estimated annual percentage change reaching 22.98%. PLHIV have an increased risk and incidence of liver cancer. In regions with high burden of HIV-attributed liver cancer, it is essential to integrate prevention and effective treatment for HIV, viral hepatitis, alcoholic liver disease, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, and liver cancer.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Statistical test to compare the linkage model and the admixture model based on central limit results.

In the Admixture Model, the probability that an individual carries a certain allele at a specific marker depends on the allele frequencies in K ancestral populations and the proportion of the individual's genome originating from these populations. The markers are assumed to be independent. The Linkage Model is a Hidden Markov Model that extends the Admixture Model by incorporating linkage between neighboring loci. We prove consistency and asymptotic normality of maximum likelihood estimators for the ancestry of individuals in the Linkage Model, complementing earlier results by (Pfaff et al., 2004; Pfaffelhuber and Rohde, 2022; Heinzel, 2025) for the Admixture Model. These results are used to prove that a statistical test that allows for model selection between the Admixture Model and the Linkage Model is an asymptotic level-α-test. Finally, we demonstrate the practical relevance of our results by applying the test to real-world data from The 1000 Genomes Project Consortium (2015).

Genetic Linkage↗

PubMed2026

An exploratory analysis of decision-making in population affinity estimation among forensic anthropology practitioners in the United States.

Population affinity estimation in forensic anthropology often involves the integration of multiple pieces of information, including visual (nonmetric) and metric data. This study examines how practitioners interpret and synthesize visual and metric information and their decision-making processes. A Qualtrics survey was developed using two cases: Case 1 presented clear nonmetric signal but ambiguous metric signal, while Case 2 showed more ambiguous nonmetric signal but clear metric signal. Practitioners were asked to estimate population affinity based on visual assessment, Fordisc data, and provide a final, integrated assessment. A total of 22 valid survey responses were received, with the majority of survey respondents reporting more than 10 years of forensic anthropology experience and holding a PhD degree. Results showed that there is substantial variability in Fordisc use and interpretation. Across both cases, participants synthesized conflicting visual and metric information, converged toward the stronger signal, and came to more consistent final estimates relative to the more ambiguous input. These findings highlight variability in practitioner decision-making but suggest that integration of nonmetric and metric information in population affinity estimation can moderate decision-making uncertainty. The results have implications for forensic anthropology education, training, and proficiency testing.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Obstructive sleep apnea and long-term risk of site-specific cancers: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Obstructive sleep apnea is common, but its long-term association with site-specific cancers remains unclear. In this study, we examined 15-year risks of site-specific cancers in people with obstructive sleep apnea compared with the general population and to people with overweight or obesity. METHODS: We conducted a nationwide population-based cohort study using Danish registries, 1995-2021. People diagnosed with obstructive sleep apnea were compared with the general population and to people with overweight or obesity. Adjusted (weighted) 15-year risks, risk differences, and risk ratios (RRs) were estimated using the Aalen-Johansen estimator. Confounding was addressed using standardized morbidity ratio weighting. RESULTS: The study included 114,264 people with obstructive sleep apnea, 115,497 members of the general population, and 113,034 with overweight or obesity. After weighting, the distributions of sex (74% male), age (median 53 years), and comorbidities were comparable across the three cohorts. Obstructive sleep apnea was associated with an increased risk of cancers of the brain (adjusted 15-year risk: 5.78 vs. 3.61 per 1,000 persons; aRR 1.60 [95% CI 1.43-1.78]) and spinal cord (1.65 vs. 1.17 per 1,000 persons; aRR 1.41 [95% CI 1.16-1.72]) compared with the general population. Associations persisted when the obstructive sleep apnea cohort was compared with those with overweight or obesity. No associations were observed for other site-specific cancers. CONCLUSION: Obstructive sleep apnea was associated with an increased risk of brain and spinal cord cancers. These findings highlight the importance of effective prevention of obstructive sleep apnea and the need for further research on treatment.

Cohort Study↗

PubMed2026

Orofacial Cleft Disparities in American Indian and Alaska Native Populations: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

ObjectiveTo evaluate the prevalence, access to care, and health outcomes of orofacial clefts (OFCs) among American Indian and Alaska Native (AI/AN) populations through a systematic review and meta-analysis.DesignSystematic review and meta-analysis performed in accordance with PRISMA 2020 guidelines and registered with PROSPERO (CRD420251035364).SettingUS-based population registries, hospital databases, and institutional or community-level retrospective studies involving AI/AN populations.Patients and ParticipantsAI/AN individuals with OFCs compared with non-Hispanic White patients.InterventionsPrimary cleft lip and palate repair, secondary cleft-related procedures, and multidisciplinary cleft care.Main Outcome Measure(s)Prevalence of OFCs, timing of cleft surgery, discharge disposition, access to specialists, and qualitative determinants of disparities.ResultsEighteen studies including more than 1985 AI/AN patients were identified. Meta-analysis of 5 studies estimated a pooled OFC prevalence of 15 per 10 000 live births (95% confidence interval: 5-49), with substantial heterogeneity (I2 = 99.8%). Individual studies reported significantly higher OFC prevalence in AI/AN populations compared to non-Hispanic Whites (odds ratio range: 1.44-2.68). Geographic maldistribution of craniofacial-trained surgeons, increased odds of nonhome discharge, and delayed cleft palate repair were consistently observed barriers. Qualitative analyses highlighted structural inequities, perceived racism, and lack of culturally responsive care as major contributors to disparities.ConclusionsAI/AN populations face a disproportionately high burden of OFCs alongside structural barriers to timely, culturally competent care. Addressing these disparities requires community-engaged, multidisciplinary interventions that improve geographic access and integrate culturally responsive approaches to care.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Artificial intelligence-supported double reading in European population breast cancer screening: A systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective programs.

BACKGROUND: Most European population mammography screening programs rely on double reading with arbitration, a model that delivers mortality benefit but is increasingly challenged by radiologist workload, variable specificity, and interval cancers. Artificial intelligence (AI) is being evaluated to support or optimize these established European screening pathways. PURPOSE: To synthesize prospective or program-embedded evaluations of AI conducted within European-style population screening programs and to estimate exploratory program-level absolute risk differences (RDs) per 1000 examinations for cancer detection rate (CDR) and recall. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a prespecified, focused evidence synthesis of three large studies embedded within routine population screening programs operating under European-relevant workflows: MASAI (randomized AI-supported risk triage within a national program), ScreenTrustCAD (prospective paired-reader evaluation with AI as an independent reader in a double-reading framework), and PRAIM (nationwide decision-referral implementation). Outcomes were harmonized as AI-control RDs per 1000 examinations. Random-effects pooling used Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman models. For the paired-reader design, sensitivity analyses applied a Kish effective sample-size approach across plausible within-examination correlations (ρ = 0.3-0.8). Positive predictive value (PPV) and workflow/time outcomes were summarized descriptively. RESULTS: Across 597,419 examinations, the pooled CDR RD was +0.9 per 1000 (95% CI -0.0 to +1.8; I2 ≈ 12%), consistent with a modest directional increase with borderline statistical uncertainty. The pooled recall RD was -0.6 per 1000 (95% CI -3.1 to +2.1; I2 ≈ 41-43%), indicating no consistent recall increase across screening programs. Where reported, PPV was higher with AI-supported screening. Efficiency signals included 44.3% fewer total readings in MASAI and shorter reading times for AI-normal examinations in PRAIM; in PRAIM, a program-level safety-net mechanism recovered 204 cancers that would otherwise have been missed. CONCLUSION: In European population screening programs characterized by double reading and arbitration, prospective program-embedded evidence suggests that AI integration may yield a small absolute increase in cancer detection (≈1/1000) without a consistent increase in recall, alongside improved PPV and efficiency signals. These findings suggestAI primarily as a complementary reader within European screening workflows, with implementation requiring explicit quality assurance and monitoring of interval cancers and stage distribution.

Humans↗