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PubMedDate not supplied

Evaluation of theophylline clearance in children with bronchial asthma.

The total body clearance of theophylline was examined in 95 children aged 6 months to 15 years with chronic bronchial asthma. Each patient received sustained-release theophylline preparations and was evaluated at steady state. Blood samples were obtained 1-8 hours after a morning dose, and individual total body clearance was determined with a Bayesian forecasting computer model. Changes in theophylline clearance were evaluated within age groups, with the age determined at the time of blood sampling. Total body clearance tended to increase with age up to 10 years. In children over 10 years old, total body clearance significantly decreased with age. The interpatient variability of theophylline clearance was most noticeable at 2-4 years of age. Changes in volume of distribution were similar to those in clearance. In conclusion, there are pronounced age-dependent differences in theophylline clearance that require individual adjustment of dosage regimens on the basis of serum concentrations and clinical response in children. Individualization of the oral dose based on frequent serum measurements is necessary to maintain theophylline levels in the therapeutic range.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1995

Pharmacokinetic development of quinolone antibiotics.

A prerequisite for the pharmacokinetic development of quinolone antibiotics is a sensitive and accurate method for the quantification of the drug in biological fluids. Both, a drug specific (e.g. HPLC) and a drug non-specific but effect related assay (e.g. bioassay) should be used during early clinical development to detect major active metabolites. The basic pharmacokinetic behavior of the drug is investigated as part of the early phase I program, where single and multiple ascending dose studies are performed to characterize the safety and tolerability of the quinolone in healthy volunteers. Further pharmacokinetic studies are performed to describe the absolute bioavailability, dose proportionality, pharmacokinetics in young and elderly, male and female volunteers. The suitability of the clinical dosage from must be evaluated in comparison to an oral solution and by quantification of the effect of food on bioavailability. The characterization of the absorption in different parts of the gastrointestinal tract may be valuable for dosage form optimization. In order to start phase IIb clinical trials, the potential of possible drug-drug interactions with antacids, cimetidine, theophylline and warfarin has to be evaluated. This can be done by in vitro and in vivo preclinical experiments, before formal clinical-pharmacology studies are performed. Further pharmacokinetic characterization (e.g. studies in special subpopulation, extended interaction studies, total recovery using 14C-labelled compound, blister fluid penetration) will be done parallel to the phase II/III development program. During these efficacy and safety trials blood samples should be obtained and PK-parameters can be calculated using sparse data analysis methods like non-linear mixed effect modeling (NONMEM) or Bayesian methods to characterize the pharmacokinetics in the target population.

4-Quinolones↗
PubMed1994

Suramin: development of a population pharmacokinetic model and its use with intermittent short infusions to control plasma drug concentration in patients with prostate cancer.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to (1) develop a population pharmacokinetic model for suramin; (2) use Bayesian methods to assess suramin pharmacokinetics in individual patients; (3) use individual patients' pharmacokinetic parameter estimates to individualize suramin dose and schedule and maintain plasma suramin concentrations within predetermined target ranges; and (4) assess the feasibility of outpatient administration of suramin by intermittent, short infusions. METHODS: Plasma suramin concentrations were measured by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), and compartmental pharmacokinetic models were fit using a Bayesian algorithm. Population pharmacokinetic models were developed using an iterative two-stage approach. Estimates of each patient's central-compartment volume were used to calculate suramin dosage. Simulation of that patient's suramin clearance was used to predict the time of his next dose. Using this approach, plasma suramin concentration was maintained at between 200 and 300, 175 and 275, 150 and 250, or 100 and 200 microgram/mL in four sequential patient cohorts. The ability of two- and three-compartment, open, linear models to fit the pharmacokinetic data was compared. Population pharmacokinetic parameters were estimated, using both two- and three-compartment structural models in 69 hormone-refractory prostate cancer patients. RESULTS: Target plasma suramin concentrations in individual patients were rapidly achieved. Concentrations were maintained within desired ranges for > or = 85% of treatment duration in all cohorts. A three-compartment, open, linear model described suramin pharmacokinetics better than did a two-compartment, open, linear model. Population pharmacokinetic estimates generated for two- and three-compartment pharmacokinetic models demonstrated modest interpatient pharmacokinetic variability and the long terminal half-life of suramin. CONCLUSION: Suramin can be administered by intermittent short infusion. Adaptive-control-with-feedback dosing facilitated precise control of plasma suramin concentrations and allowed a number of different concentration ranges to be studied. This approach is expensive and labor-intensive. Although we have demonstrated the ability to control drug exposure, simpler dosing schedules require critical evaluation. Population pharmacokinetic parameters generated in men with hormone-refractory prostate cancer will facilitate rational design of such schedules.

Adult↗
PubMed1989

Optimal use of literature knowledge to improve the Bayesian diagnosis of coronary artery disease.

Bayes' theorem with the independence assumption is applied to a test sample of 141 subjects, using two sets of test sensitivities and specificities. The first set is derived by averaging over literature reports on the accuracy of the exercise electrocardiogram, exercise thallium scintigraphy, and carciac fluoroscopy. The second set of indices is derived by applying multivariate regression to the technical, population, and methodologic attributes obtained from the same literature by the use of meta-analysis. The meta-analytically corrected sensitivities and specificities resulted in significant improvement in the discriminatory power of the Bayes model. (Area under ROC curve increased, p = less than 0.01). However, the corrected model was not as accurate as a data-derived logistic regression model of the same test variables. Meta-analysis may be useful for modest improvement in the accuracy of literature-derived Bayesian models for predicting disease probabilities.

Adult↗
PubMed2026

Impact of smoking on structural failure after arthroscopic rotator cuff repair: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Rotator cuff tears cause significant shoulder pain and functional limitation. Arthroscopic rotator cuff repair improves symptoms, yet structural failure rates remain substantial. Smoking may impair tendon-to-bone healing, but clinical studies report mixed findings due to heterogeneous methodology. Therefore, a systematic synthesis of imaging-confirmed outcomes is needed to clarify the association between smoking and structural failure after arthroscopic rotator cuff repair. METHODS: This review followed PRISMA 2020 and was registered in PROSPERO (CRD420251246197). PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library were searched from inception to 12 December 2025. Comparative clinical studies of adults undergoing arthroscopic rotator cuff repair that reported imaging-confirmed structural integrity (magnetic resonance imaging or ultrasonography) at ≥6 months were included. Two reviewers independently screened studies, extracted data, and assessed quality using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. The primary outcome (structural failure) was pooled as risk ratios using a random-effects model with the restricted maximum likelihood estimator and Hartung-Knapp adjustment. Secondary continuous outcomes were synthesized using Bayesian random-effects models; subgroup, sensitivity, and meta-regression analyses explored heterogeneity. RESULTS: Ten cohort studies (1,683 shoulders) were included. Smoking was associated with a higher risk of imaging-confirmed structural failure (risk ratio 1.53; 95% confidence interval 1.13-2.08; P = .011) with low heterogeneity (I2 = 24.7%). Subgroup and sensitivity analyses supported robustness, with no evidence of effect modification by region, follow-up duration, tear size, or smoking definition. Meta-regression showed no significant influence of age, smoking prevalence, or diabetes prevalence on the pooled effect. Secondary outcomes (3 studies) suggested slightly lower postoperative American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons scores among smokers, while visual analog scale pain scores and forward flexion showed no clear between-group differences. No publication-bias signals were detected for the primary outcome. CONCLUSION: Smoking is associated with a higher risk of imaging-confirmed structural failure after arthroscopic rotator cuff repair. Functional outcomes were broadly similar between groups, with only a small, likely clinically negligible reduction in American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons scores among smokers. These findings support careful smoking history assessment and perioperative risk modification, including smoking cessation strategies.

Humans↗
PubMed1993

A Bayesian approach to measurement error problems in epidemiology using conditional independence models.

Risk factors used in epidemiology are often measured with error which can seriously affect the assessment of the relation between risk factors and disease outcome. In this paper, a Bayesian perspective on measurement error problems in epidemiology is taken and it is shown how the information available in this setting can be structured in terms of conditional independence models. The modeling of common designs used in the presence of measurement error (validation group, repeated measures, ancillary data) is described. The authors indicate how Bayesian estimation can be carried out in these settings using Gibbs sampling, a sampling technique which is being increasingly referred to in statistical and biomedical applications. The method is illustrated by analyzing a design with two measuring instruments and no validation group.

Bayes Theorem↗
PubMed1993

Generation of pharmacokinetic data during routine therapeutic drug monitoring: Bayesian approach vs. pharmacokinetic studies.

In three groups (each n = 12) of unselected hospitalized patients treated either with digoxin, theophylline, or gentamicin routinely performed TDM measurement of trough steady-state plasma levels (+ peak levels in case of gentamicin) was combined with a pharmacokinetic study at steady state (multiple blood sampling during one dosing interval). Pharmacokinetic parameters (apparent volume of distribution Vd, total plasma clearance CL) needed for individualization of dosage were evaluated by the Bayesian approach and a model-(in)dependent pharmacokinetic program (TOPFIT). Comparison of both methods revealed some small differences in the pharmacokinetic parameters for all three drugs. Mean deviations of the Bayesian estimates from the pharmacokinetic calculations of the three drugs ranged between 20 and 38% for Vd and between 13 and 22% for CL, indicating that the Bayesian approach provided reliable pharmacokinetic estimates for individualizing drug dosage under routine conditions. Therefore, it is suggested that routine TDM combined with Bayesian-based analyses can be regarded as an alternative to pharmacokinetic studies in clinically relevant populations.

Adult↗
PubMed2026

Insights Into the Structural Features, Codon Usage Patterns, and Phylogenetic Analysis in Neoniphon argenteus (Teleostei: Holocentriformes) Based on Complete Mitochondrial Genome.

Neoniphon argenteus, a widely distributed nocturnal coral reef fish in the family Holocentridae, plays an important role in maintaining coral reef ecosystem health, yet its phylogenetic position remains poorly resolved. To bridge this gap, we sequenced and analyzed the complete mitochondrial genome of a specimen from the South China Sea to characterize its structural features, codon usage patterns, and phylogenetic relationships. The 16,569 bp mitogenome (GenBank: PP190474.1) encodes 13 protein-coding genes (PCGs), 22 tRNAs, two rRNAs, and two non-coding regions, exhibiting a distinct A + T bias. All tRNAs fold into typical cloverleaf secondary structures except tRNA-Ser (AGN), which lacks the dihydrouridine (DHU) arm. The control region contains palindromic motifs (TACAT/ATGTA) capable of forming hairpin structures and five conserved sequence blocks, whereas the OL region harbors a conserved 5'-GCCGG-3' motif. RSCU analysis revealed 31 frequently used codons (RSCU > 1) with a pronounced preference for A/C-ending codons. The ΔRSCU method identified 10 candidate optimal codons (GCA, CAA, GAA, GGA, AUU, CUA, CCA, CGA, ACA, and GUC). Selection pressure analysis using EasyCodeML and site-specific models indicated that all PCGs are predominantly under purifying selection, with no significant evidence of pervasive positive selection. ND6 exhibited elevated pairwise Ka/Ks ratios (mean = 1.209 ± 0.047), consistent with reduced selective constraint rather than adaptive evolution. Phylogenetic analysis of 19 Holocentriformes species using maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference with partitioned models based on 13 PCGs and two rRNA genes (12S and 16S) assigned all taxa to two well-supported subfamilies (Holocentrinae and Myripristinae). Within Holocentrinae, Neoniphon species form a monophyletic clade nested within a paraphyletic Sargocentron, suggesting that the genus Sargocentron as currently defined is not monophyletic. This study provides useful baseline molecular data for further exploration of the evolutionary history of N. argenteus and other members of Holocentriformes.

Holocentridae↗
PubMed2026

Efficacy and safety of cannabinoid-based interventions for behavioral and cognitive symptoms in dementia: systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Behavioral and cognitive symptoms are frequent in Alzheimer's disease and dementia, and available pharmacological options offer limited benefit. Cannabinoid-based therapies have been proposed as alternatives, but evidence remains inconclusive. METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library through November 2025 for randomized controlled trials evaluating cannabinoids in Alzheimer's disease or dementia. Primary outcomes were agitation measured by the Cohen-Mansfield Agitation Inventory (CMAI) and neuropsychiatric symptoms assessed by the Neuropsychiatric Inventory-Nursing Home version (NPI-NH). Secondary outcomes included cognition using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and adverse events. Standardized Mean Differences (SMDs) and Risk Ratios (RRs) were synthesized using random-effects (REML) and Bayesian random-effects models. Risk of bias was evaluated with RoB 2, and certainty of evidence with GRADE. RESULTS: Nine trials (334 participants) met inclusion criteria. Cannabinoids did not improve CMAI (SMD -0.58, 95% CI -1.71 to 0.55; I2 = 84%), NPI-NH total (SMD -0.02, 95% CI -1.00 to 0.96; I2 = 67%), NPI-NH agitation (SMD -0.44, 95% CI -1.45 to 0.57; I2 = 48%), or MMSE (SMD 0.86, 95% CI -16.33 to 18.06; I2 = 96%). Bayesian posterior estimates were close to zero, supporting the absence of effect. Leave-one-out analyses reduced heterogeneity only after excluding influential trials but did not alter results. Certainty of evidence was moderate for behavioral outcomes and low for cognition. Overall adverse events were similar to placebo, while somnolence was more frequent with cannabinoids (RR 2.03, 95% CI 1.29-3.20). CONCLUSIONS: Cannabinoid-based therapies do not improve agitation, neuropsychiatric symptoms, or cognition in Alzheimer's disease and increase somnolence.

Humans↗
PubMed1991

Individualising gentamicin dosage regimens. A comparative review of selected models, data fitting methods and monitoring strategies.

The various components required for individualising clinical drug dosage regimens are reviewed, including a study of 3 types of fitting procedures, 2 types of gentamicin pharmacokinetic model and the utility of D-optimal times for obtaining serum gentamicin concentrations. The combination of the current Bayesian fitting procedure, the kslope pharmacokinetic model [in which the elimination rate constant (kel) can change from dose to dose with changing creatinine clearance] and the explicit measurement of the assay error pattern yielded predictions of future serum gentamicin concentrations which were (a) slightly better than those found using weighted nonlinear least squares; (b) somewhat better than those found with Bayesian fitting and a fixed-kel model; (c) better than those found using the traditional linear regression fitting procedure and a fixed kel model. D-Optimally timed pairs of concentrations also predicted future concentrations at least as well, and more cost effectively.

Data Interpretation, Statistical↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Open-loop-feedback control of serum drug concentrations: pharmacokinetic approaches to drug therapy.

Recent developments to optimize open-loop-feedback control of drug dosage regimens, generally applicable to pharmacokinetically oriented therapy with many drugs, involve computation of patient-individualized strategies for obtaining desired serum drug concentrations. Analyses of past therapy are performed by least squares, extended least squares, and maximum a posteriori probability Bayesian methods of fitting pharmacokinetic models to serum level data. Future possibilities for truly optimal open-loop-feedback therapy with full Bayesian methods, and conceivably for optimal closed-loop therapy in such data-poor clinical situations, are also discussed. Implementation of these various therapeutic strategies, using automated, locally controlled infusion devices, has also been achieved in prototype form.

Aged↗
PubMed2026

Exploring hormonal influences on nicotine craving and use across the perinatal period: A prospective longitudinal study.

INTRODUCTION: Perinatal nicotine use is common despite well-documented adverse consequences. We examined associations between reproductive-related hormones with nicotine craving and use during the perinatal period to identify potential novel intervention points. METHODS: All participants reported use of nicotine during the perinatal period. Participants were enrolled at gestational week ≥ 36 and followed to postpartum week 12 via daily surveys (i.e., nicotine craving via 100-point scale, dichotomous use) and weekly hormone measurement in saliva (cortisol, oxytocin) or dried blood spots (progesterone, estradiol, testosterone, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate). Bayesian mixed-effects models accounted for within-person correlation while estimating hormone effects. RESULTS: Participants (n = 46) were 28.9 ± 4.9 years old. During follow-up, exclusive combustible cigarettes (n = 20), electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS; n = 13), or dual (n = 2) use was observed, with variability in use and craving across participants and over time. During pregnancy, higher oxytocin was linked to greater craving (β=16.31, 95% CI: 3.71, 28.83). Greater peripartum declines in oxytocin were associated with more craving (β=8.71, 95% CI: 0.75, 16.93) and use (β=1.13, 95% CI: 0.05, 2.43). During postpartum, lower estradiol was linked to more craving (β=-1.17, 95% CI: -2.15, -0.18) and use (β=-0.40, 95% CI: -0.76, -0.03). In models simultaneously evaluating all postpartum hormones, the lone meaningful association was between estradiol and craving (β=-1.66, 95% CI: -2.84, -0.48). CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study suggest that oxytocin and estradiol may contribute to the risk of perinatal nicotine use. Additional research is needed to replicate our observations in more diverse study samples and explore implications for clinical intervention.

Bayesian↗
PubMed1993

Evaluating the quality of a probabilistic diagnostic system using different inferencing strategies.

In this paper we describe the evaluation of a probabilistic diagnostic system for patients with renal mass. Three inference models: Multi-membership Bayesian (MB), Minimal Diagnosis (MD) and Bayesian Network (BN), and 72 patients are used to illustrate three interrelated measures of system performance: accuracy, reliability and discriminating power. The inferencing strategies we tested demonstrated the kind of trade-offs in the performance measures that can be expected from imperfect systems. Ultimately, the purpose and expected use of a system should dictate the relative importance ascribed to different aspects of system performance.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2025

Coupling of spectroscopy and nitrogen-oxygen isotopes unveils the mechanisms of dissolved organic matter and nitrate pollution in lakes within the agro-pastoral transition zone.

Lakes in arid and semi-arid regions are subjected to severe ecological stress, such as organic pollution, eutrophication, and salinization, due to climate change and human activities. This study investigates Chagannur Lake, a typical arid-region lake that is representative and ecologically sensitive in Northern China's agro-pastoral ecotone, to uncover its pollution characteristics and mechanisms. We employed fluorescence spectroscopy and stable isotope analysis to trace dissolved organic matter (DOM) and nitrate sources. The DOM composition was dominated by microbial metabolic byproducts and protein-like substances, suggesting that microbial processes are key to organic matter transformation. Source apportionment revealed that pollutants primarily originated from livestock and poultry manure (37.6 %), agricultural fertilizers (35.6 %), and soil erosion (24.7 %), with agricultural fertilizers contributing most significantly in the Gogstai River (63.3 %). A structural equation model (SEM) coupling spectral and mass spectrometric data revealed that microbial transformation significantly impairs the lake's self-purification capacity, thereby promoting pollutant accumulation (path coefficient = 0.91,*p < 0.05). Moreover, microbial processes link endogenous and exogenous pollution, a mechanism effectively traced by isotopic and fluorescence indices (path coefficient = 0.55, &#x204e;&#x204e;p < 0.01). These findings enhance the understanding of pollution sources and transformation mechanisms in arid-region lakes and offer foundational theoretical support for policymakers engaged in pollution control strategies.

Lakes↗
PubMed1995

Bayesian forecasting of serum vancomycin concentrations in neonates and infants.

A dynamic pharmacokinetic model for i.v. vancomycin administration was developed and tested in 47 neonates and infants. Twenty-nine patients (Group 1), having two or more concentrations, were used to estimate population parameters by nonlinear least-squares analysis. Multiple stepwise linear regression techniques showed that estimated creatinine clearance, Clcr, and postnatal age were significant demographic factors related to vancomycin clearance (CL). No strong associations were found for the apparent volume of distribution. A one-compartment model was constructed using the associations of CLcr and postnatal age with vancomycin CL. Eighteen patients (Group 2), receiving 35 courses of vancomycin therapy, with both initial and subsequent sets of peak and trough concentrations, were used to test the predictive performance of the model with and without the use of Bayesian forecasting. Using only population-based parameters, the respective mean error (ME) (bias) and mean absolute error (MAE) (precision) for predicting subsequent peak concentrations were -1.20 and 3.89 mg/L and for trough concentrations, 0.83 and 2.23 mg/L, respectively. For the Bayesian method, these values were, respectively, 0.45 and 4.13 mg/L for peak concentrations and 1.55 and 2.40 mg/L for trough concentrations. When predicted concentrations occurred within 30 days of feedback concentrations, the Bayesian method tended to be slightly less biased and more precise than the population-based parameters. The opposite was true > 30 days of the initial set of feedback concentrations. The use of population-specific pharmacokinetic parameters and Bayesian forecasting should allow accurate dosage regimen design as well as minimize the need for monitoring serum vancomycin concentrations in neonates and young infants.

Bayes Theorem↗
PubMed1991

Identifying the fertile phase of the human menstrual cycle.

The identification of the human fertile phase as the time during which a woman or a couple may conceive is elusive. The fertile time depends on many factors in each individual menstrual cycle and may be said to be more of a statistical than a physiological entity. This paper reviews the application of statistical methods to three areas related to conception and the fertile phase. The first is the prediction and detection of ovulation from serial measurements, such as hormones, basal body temperature and cervical mucus, throughout the menstrual cycle. Typically, such variables increase from some baseline level to a peak around ovulation (the most fertile time), then subside to low levels in the postovulatory phase. The statistical challenge is to detect the rise (signalling the onset of potential fertility) and subsequent fall. Analytic methods considered include thresholds, Bayesian change-point models and particularly the cumulative sum (cusum) technique which is both simple to apply and understand, and effective. The second area comprises appropriate methods of analysing and interpreting data from clinical studies of the fertile phase, especially in so-called natural family planning (NFP) where it is usual for women to observe several indices of potential fertility. Such studies usually try to establish the temporal relationships between markers of the fertile phase and examine the success of different combinations of markers in delineating the fertile time in comparison with a standard 'defined' phase, for example, the interval from three days before to two days after the peak of luteinizing hormone. The third area is the assessment of the probability of conception on certain days of the cycle, which is vital to the understanding of the fertile phase and its application to NFP. Direct estimation of such probabilities is impractical; instead, resort must be made to estimation by maximum likelihood of the parameters of specially constructed models. Suitable models are described. Finally, the need for a new prospective study of the probability of conception in relation to the markers of the fertile phase used in the symptothermal method of NFP is discussed.

Female↗
PubMed1995

Pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of 21-day continuous oral etoposide in pediatric patients with solid tumors.

PURPOSE: The objectives of this study were to determine etoposide pharmacokinetics during continuous low-dose oral administration to children with solid tumors and to evaluate the relationships between parameters of etoposide systemic exposure and toxicity. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In this phase I study, children were administered oral etoposide (25 to 75 mg/m2/day) for 21 days as a diluted solution of the intravenous preparation, divided into three equal daily doses. Plasma pharmacokinetics were studied on day 1 of therapy in 18 children and again on day 21 in 14 of these children. Etoposide plasma concentration-time data were fitted to a first-order absorption, two-compartment model with use of bayesian estimation. Pharmacokinetic parameter estimates from day 1 were used to estimate steady-state etoposide systemic exposure in all children. Stepwise multivariate regression was used in an exploratory manner to determine patient, laboratory, or pharmacokinetic predictors of toxicity. RESULTS: Although there was substantial intrapatient variability, there was no difference in the area under the concentration-time curve [AUC(0-8hr)] measured at day 21 compared with the steady-state AUC(0-8hr) estimated from day 1 pharmacokinetic parameters (p = 0.64). Degree of neutropenia was best predicted by the estimated duration that steady-state plasma etoposide concentrations were maintained above 1 microgram/ml (t > 1 microgram/ml) rather than peak plasma concentrations, AUC(0-8hr), dosage, or other patient characteristics. Assuming a bioavailability of the oral solution of approximately 50%, the median etoposide systemic clearance was 21.4 ml/min/m2, a value similar to clearance estimates after intravenous etoposide in pediatric populations. CONCLUSION: We conclude that a parameter reflective of etoposide systemic exposure (t > 1 microgram/ml) correlates more strongly with neutropenia than does dosage or other patient characteristics.

Administration, Oral↗