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PubMed2006

"Statistical evidence" for the investigation of international crimes.

Statistics are widely applied throughout scientific research disciplines but 'statistical evidence' sounds surely an unhappy term rather avoided. In International Criminal Law the term seems to stress the value that statistical methods have for the analysis of large-scale victimisation and describes rather the tools used to support the evidence. However, statistics is required for valid, reliable and objective results that would otherwise be left in the dusty political sphere of the warring parties and their actors. But what are the concepts to do so? Today's presentation shows two widely known cases from the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) where statisticians analysed the Crime Scenes in Srebrenica and Kosovo. The cases introduce two different analytical approaches. Firstly, in Srebrenica the analysts focussed on civilians that were killed during the take over of the enclave. Thus the findings are descriptive, summarizing observations and presenting results based on simple statistical tools. Secondly, in Kosovo the researchers asked what caused the killings and refugee migration during the NATO air campaign in springtime 1999. Here, in a complex environment statistical methods are exercised to determine causal relations. Hypotheses are tested to be consistent with huge data sets collected from a broad field of sources, to finally end up with Statistical Evidence.

Crime↗
PubMedDate not supplied

[Sterilization--where are we and what do we want?].

According to the estimation from the mid-eighties, about 135 million people were sterilized, 95 million females and 40 million males. In 1977, sterilization was legalized in Slovenia, in 1978 in Croatia. In the period from 1978 to 1989, 4,503 females and 654 males were sterilized in Slovenia. The majority of female sterilizations were performed in the interval and post partum (the third cesarean section), applying laparoscopy or mini-laparotomy according to Pomeroy, in some cases the obsolete Madlener technique, while vasectomies were performed by using the standard method. The accurate statistical data on complications are not available but are estimated to be minimal. Requests for a tubal or seminal duct reconstruction have been exceptional. With a higher number of sterilizations the incidence of induced abortions in women at the age of more than 35 years would be reduced and the use of contraception would be increased. Yugoslavia, besides Albania and the Soviet Union, was the last to resort to contraceptives.

Female↗
PubMed1991

Relationship between weathered coal deposits and the etiology of Balkan endemic nephropathy.

Field studies in epidemiology and environmental geochemistry in areas in Yugoslavia containing villages with a high incidence of Balkan endemic nephropathy (BEN), indicate a possible relationship between the presence of low-rank coal deposits and the etiology of BEN. Preliminary results from qualitative chemical analyses of drinking water from shallow farm wells indicate the presence of soluble polar aromatic and polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons. These compounds may be derived from weathering of low-rank coals occurring in the vicinity of the endemic villages. All of the endemic villages are in alluvial valleys of tributaries to the Danube River. All except one of the clusters of endemic villages are located in the vicinity of known Pliocene age coals. Detailed sampling of the drinking waters and the nearby coals are being undertaken to identify a possible etiologic factor.

Balkan Nephropathy↗
PubMedDate not supplied

[Imported malaria--clinical problems].

Over the period from 1985 to 1989, 107 patients suffering from malaria were treated in the Institute for Infectious and Tropical Diseases in Belgrade. The eradication of malaria in Yugoslavia was carried out in 1960 and all the new cases originated from different African countries. Most of these patients were Yugoslav citizens working in these countries. Plasmodium falciparum was the cause of malaria in most of them. The parasytologic analysis of dense drops and smears of peripheric blood revealed it in 81 (75.5%) patients. Taking into account the great problem of treatment of malaria resistant to Resorchin (over 50% in our patients) the great role of chemioprophylaxix, antimalaric agents and appropriate vaccination is emphasized.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1991

Patients' experience of the therapeutic process in a crisis intervention unit.

To all patients hospitalized in 1986 in the Crisis Intervention Unit in Ljubljana, Yugoslavia, an inventory was sent. In this way, we tried to find out how the patients experience the treatment and stay on the Unit, what is most helpful in solving their problems and what are, in their opinion, the direct gains of hospitalization. On the basis of the results, we determined what should be changed or improved to make the treatment in our Unit more effective.

Attitude to Health↗
PubMed1991

Blood pressure changes as predictors of future mortality in the seven countries study.

Twelve cohorts of men aged 40-59 at entry, enrolled in six countries (Finland, The Netherlands, Italy, Yugoslavia, Greece and Japan), giving a total of 8,287 subjects, were examined for the measurement of cardiovascular risk factors and then followed-up for 20 years. Changes of systolic blood pressure (SBP) occurred over the first 10 years in 6,767 men and these values, computed by an integral-like procedure (Delta-SBP), were used as possible predictors of fatal events recorded in the second 10 years of follow-up. Men who had a relative increase of SBP in the first 10 years showed an excess risk of death as compared with those who had a relative decrease of SBP, after adjustment for age and entry levels of SBP. Such relative risks were greater than 1 in the cohorts pooled within each of the six countries, ranging from 1.07 to 1.79 for all causes of death and from 1.12 to 2.15 for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease deaths (coronary, stroke and peripheral atherosclerotic disease). The Cox model was solved using the same two end-points as dependent variables and, as coviariates, six risk factors measured at entry examination (age, cigarettes smoked per day, body mass index, serum cholesterol, physical activity at work and systolic blood pressure). By adding Delta-SBP the predictive power of the models was significantly improved and the coefficients of Delta-SBP proved to be statistically significant.

Adult↗
PubMedDate not supplied

[Periodontal disease on Yugoslav soil during the past two millennia].

The analysis of the condition of the periodontium concerned the skeletal material of Yugoslavia dated from the first century A.D. to the beginning of the twentieth century. The following parameters were analysed: the condition of the interdental septum, the alveolar limbus, the distance from the alveolar limbus to the enamel-cement line, as well as the existence of fenestrations and dehiscences on the alveolar bone. A total of 534 skulls and 98 jaws were analysed. On the basis of the state of the interdental septum it can be concluded that periodontal disease was present in the whole examined anthropological material, whereby the highest degree of bone resorption existed in the material from the Middle Ages.

History, 15th Century↗
PubMedDate not supplied

[The demographic situation in the Croatian Republic].

Croatia is a low-natality region characterized by slowing growth rate of its total population and a decrease of its proportion in total population of Yugoslavia. This declining trend in Croatia, in accordance with its developmental features, is primarily the result of a fall in natural population increment due to a constant decline in natality/fertility and to mild increase in mortality. These features of the natural movement of population are typical for the areas in which the process of demographical transition has been completed. However, the decrease in the total population of Croatia, together with a decline in natural population increment has also contributed to a negative migration balance (both in internal and external migrations). These characteristics of the natural movement of population have brought about considerable imbalances in its age structure through a decrease in the number and proportion of young people, a mild increase in the working age population and through an intensive increase in the number and proportion of old people. Such tendencies will have numerous unfavourable consequences on the further development of population and on socio-economic development of Croatia.

Birth Rate↗
PubMedDate not supplied

[Family planning].

According to the fact that a great majority of women have expressed their wish to have only two children, two main questions have arised: what are the means that women use to limit their family size and what are the acceptable measures which the society can undertake to avoid further decline of crude birth rate in order to attain a stable population. Except for Kosovo and Macedonia, namely, in all other parts of Yugoslavia depopulating trends are present. Adequate data about contraceptive prevalence are not available, and according to some partial data, even among the women wanting no additional children, the percent of those planning no use of contraception is as high as 17.3 and further 21.2% are planning to rely on less effective contraceptive methods. The result of this situation is a relatively high number of induced abortions in Croatia 1989: 43227 or 77.7 per 100 live births). To improve this unfavourable situation, medical profession has to promote a wider use of contraception in general, particularly with more effective methods. Unfavoured decline of crude birth rate could be corrected, however, only through complex activities of long duration in order to achieve thorough improvement of the standard of living. With these improved living conditions more women would, most probably, want to have more than two children, thus avoiding the present depopulating trends in some parts of the country. On the other hand, any restriction of legal rights and availability of fertility regulation methods would be fully anachronistic and therefore unacceptable, since the only predictable result would be the increase of illegal abortions with all the well-known health risks and life-threatening conditions.

Contraception↗
PubMed1990

[Determination of cesium in human placenta 3 years after Chernobyl].

Three years after the nuclear reactor accident in Chernobyl, 80 human placentae were tested to determine concentrations of cesium 134 and cesium 137 radionuclides. The activities of radionuclides were measured using a low-back ground gamma-ray spectrometry system. Human placentae were obtained from normal and at term pregnancies in women who lived in rural areas of northern-Italy and north-west of Yugoslavia and who in particular used locally grown vegetables and meats. According to the data of other Authors, the low cesium isotopes 134 and 137 levels detected (inferior to 2 Bq/kg) in human placentae suggest that, in the observed geographic areas, the fetal risk following the reactor accident in Chernobyl was negligible.

Accidents↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Beta-, delta beta-thalassemia and Hb lepore among Yugoslav, Bulgarian, Turkish and Albanian.

Over the past 20 years we have studied 1781 patients with beta-thalassemia syndromes of which 1481 Yugoslav, 166 Bulgarian, 102 Turkish and 32 Albanian. In this paper we summarize the data on the heterogeneity and molecular basis of beta-thal, delta beta-thal and Lepore hemoglobinopathy in these four nationalities living in Yugoslavia and Bulgaria. Beta-thalassemia is the most frequent form of thalassemia in all four nationalities. At the phenotypic level 9 different forms were detected, while at the genotypic level 17 different mutations were characterized. DNA analysis of 377 beta-thal chromosomes showed that in Yugoslav 5 mutations (IVS I#110, IVS I#6, IVS I#1, Codon #39 and Poly A (A----G)) account for 83% of the beta-thal genes, while in Bulgarian 6 mutations (IVS I#110, Codon #39, IVS II#6, IVS II#745, Codon #8 and Codon #8/9) account for 76% of the beta-thal genes. In Turkish the most common mutation is IVS I#110, followed by IVS I#6, IVS II#1 and Codon #8, while in Albanian IVS I#110, Codon #39 and IVS I#6 are prevalent. Delta beta-thalassemia is the second most common form of thal in Yugoslav (10.8%) and Bulgarian (4.2%) but not in Turkish and Albanian. At the phenotypic level 6 different forms were detected, while at the molecular level 3 different deletions (approximately 15 kb, approximately 23 kb, and approximately 148 kb) were characterized. Hb Lepore is the third most common hemoglobinopathy among Yugoslav (9.6%) and most probably Bulgarian (3.67%). This condition was observed in homozygous (n 7) and heterozygous (n 124) state, and in association with beta zero-thal (n 5), beta(+)-thal (n 11), (delta beta)zero-thal (n 1), and Hb Beograd (n 1). Haplotype analysis of 29 lepore chromosomes from 9 unrelated families showed that Hb Lepore is associated with haplotype V.

Adolescent↗
PubMedDate not supplied

[Epidemiology of enteroviral meningitis in Croatia 1958-1988 with special emphasis on the great epidemic of 1988].

In 1988, there was a large outbreak of enteroviral meningitis in the Republic of Croatia and in other parts of Yugoslavia as well. A total of 4079 cases of enteroviral meningitis were registered with one fatal outcome (Mb 8.7 0/ooo). The outbreak was caused by echovirus 4. Analysis of epidemiological, virologic and ecological data for 1988, as well as for a number of previous years, showed the following: an upward morbidity trend observed from 1958 to 1979 turned to a high level stationary trend with irregular annual oscillations. A cyclic morbidity trend was noticed with peaks in 9-10 years. Seasonal peak was lower in July regularly. In 1988, age and sex distribution of the diseased persons differed from the usual picture, showing greater proportion of older age and women. The probable reason is in the long absence of echovirus 4 from the target population, resulting in low herd immunity. This caused greater proportion of older cases, among which women (mothers) had probably been more exposed to infections than men (nursing ill household members, laundry handling, etc). The epidemic years 1988 and 1979 were hot during spring and summer, at above-average level. Such climatic factors (high temperature) coupled with the sufficiently low level of herd immunity probably triggered in both examples the outbreak of enteroviral meningitis.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1990

Diagnostic endomyocardial biopsy findings in 160 consecutive patients: the Yugoslavian experience.

Percutaneous endomyocardial biopsy was performed for the diagnosis of various heart disorders in 160 consecutive patients in Belgrade, Yugoslavia. Tissue specimens were taken from the left ventricle in 150 patients and from the right ventricule in 10. To determine the clinical merit of endomyocardial biopsy, patients were divided into six groups based upon the existing clinical findings, including cardiomyopathy, myocarditis, specific heart muscle disease, alcohol-induced heart disease, major dysrhythmias, and other diagnoses. The clinical value of endomyocardial biopsy was gauged by the number of diagnoses that were histologically confirmed by the procedure. We combined the percentages of histologically suspected clinical diagnoses with those of completely changed clinical diagnoses and found that endomyocardial biopsy provided useful information in 70.6% of cases. Nonspecific histological findings were found in 25.6% of cases. The biopsy proved to be of no clinical value in only 3.8% of the cases. Although some investigators still object to the overall clinical usefulness of diagnostic endomyocardial biopsy, our findings help to underscore the value of this procedure for making an accurate diagnosis.

Cardiomyopathies↗
PubMedDate not supplied

[Hospital treatment of child-tourists at the Pula Medical Center 1983-1988].

During the 6-year period, 687 children-tourists, aged up to 12 years, were treated at the departments of the Medical Center of Pula; on average 114.5 (standard deviation +/- 17.79) children per year. There were 449 (65.4%) patients from different parts of Yugoslavia and 238 (24.6%) from abroad. Two hundred and fifty-four (37.9%) patients were treated at the Department of Paediatrics 231 (33.7%) at the Department of Surgery, 168 (24.4%) at the Department of Infectious Diseases, then 30 (4.4%) at the Department of Ear, Nose and Throat, 3 female patients (0.4%) at the Department of Gynecology and only one boy was treated at the Department of Ophthalmology. There were 22 (3.2%) newborns, 48 (7%) infants, 143 (20.8%) were one to three years old, then 130 (18.9%) were 4 to six years old and 344 (50.1%) older than 7 years. During the 6-year period, children-tourists accounted for 5.1% of the hospitalized children. 81.3% of the patients were treated during June, July and August, the peak being in July (39%). The most frequent diseases were from the group "infectious and parasitic diseases" (188 patients = 27.4%) and among them "diarrheal syndrome" in 82% of patients, then the group "injuries and poisons" (140 patients 20.4%) among which there were 57 (40.4%) superficial injuries, contusions and open wounds, then in 33 (23.5%) patients different fractures; in this group 10% of children were poisoned mostly by drugs (sedatives and tranquilizers) used by their parents.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Child↗
PubMed1990

[Epidemiologic and clinical approaches in the prevention of carcinoma of the uterine cervix].

The current state of the epidemiology and the clinical results of UCC in our surroundings is not satisfactory and is irregular according to different parts of Yugoslavia. In the purpose of attaining a better view of the state in our surroundings, 1957 sexually mature females were polled in the territory of Novi Sad during 1987-1988 (1000 were unemployed and 957 employed) thus we will use parts of this poll in the areas which are of interest for the problems studied. According to our survey, most of the women were unadequately and unsufficiently informed about the causes of uterine cervix diseases, therefore little attention is given to the early start of sexual intercourse (1.7-2.7%), the changing of several sexual partners in a lifetime (5.5-9.8%), hygiene of male sexual organs (1.6-18.7%), and the role of abortions was overestimated (11.5-14.7%) with a considerable number of uncertain responses (22.4-2.6%). Almost 50% of the polled women do not know any possibilities for the individual prevention of UCC risk factors. Most of the women in both of the categories polled (66.0-46.6%) express the opinion that the necessary knowledge should be acquired in these areas through regular education which should be conducted at a suitable age, and there are less of those which think that this knowledge should be acquired through other sources of information (women's magazines or means for public informing and so on).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Female↗
PubMedDate not supplied

[Prospective study of the incidence of HIV infection in the 1st trimester of pregnancy].

The article deals with the results of an anonymous testing of HIV infections in Yugoslavia. The presence of anti-HIV-antibodies was examined in the blood of pregnant patients, randomly selected, in a Ward where about 3000 artificial abortions were carried out in the first trimester of pregnancy in a six-month period. On the basis of the obtained results one patient of 177 tested women was infected by HIV virus. At the same time, it can be presumed that among 3000 pregnancies there were many anti-HIV positive persons. It should be emphasized that the staff was not aware of HIV infection in one patient, and that in Yugoslav epidemiological conditions a HIV infected person could unexpectedly be detected without preliminary findings and data.

Female↗
PubMed1990

Ship's medicine chest on Yugoslav ship.

An insufficient medical care during sea voyage presents a great risk for the health and life seafarers at sea. Apart from an appropriate education of seamen, radio-medical services, and a good medical guide, ship's medicine chest is an important component of the primary health care on ships. The standardization and unification of these medicine chests, which all major maritime countries except Yugoslavia have already accepted, is essential. The authors present a proposal for the standardization of the list of drugs carried on Yugoslav ships.

Naval Medicine↗
PubMed1990

[Balkan nephropathy and urothelial cancer].

In Bulgaria, the frequency of tumors of the renal pelvis and of the ureter is very high in the regions affected by Balkan nephritis. An increased frequency of these tumors is also reported in Yugoslavia, though to a lesser extent; however, these urothelial tumors are frequent in the endemic regions affected by Balkan nephritis, but a less significant frequency of cases is also noted in neighboring, non-endemic regions. The geographic distribution of these diseases of the urinary tract is studied, as well as the related issues of urothelial carcinogenesis.

Balkan Nephropathy↗