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Multimodal Deep Learning and Foundation Models for Early Detection and Forecasting of Plant Diseases.

Plant diseases destroy 20-40% of global food production annually, posing a critical threat to food security for a projected population of 9.7 billion by 2050. Conventional diagnostic approaches relying on expert visual assessment are slow, costly, and unsuitable for modern agricultural scales. While deep convolutional neural networks demonstrated early promise, single-modality, image-centric systems consistently fail under real-world field conditions characterized by variable lighting, co-occurring infections, and cultivar diversity. This review synthesizes a decade of progress across four interconnected frontiers: the evolution of deep learning architectures for plant disease detection; the adaptation of foundation models including CLIP, SAM, and DINOv2 to agricultural contexts; the development of multimodal fusion frameworks integrating imagery, environmental, genomic, and hyperspectral data; and the transition from static disease diagnosis to descriptive comparison of reported metrics, which suggested that multimodal approaches frequently reported improved diagnostic performance relative to corresponding single-modality baselines, although direct cross-study comparison was limited by methodological heterogeneity. A systematic review following PRISMA guidelines identifies eligible comparative studies. Descriptive comparison of reported performance metrics across these studies indicated that multimodal approaches generally achieved higher accuracy and sensitivity than single-modality models, particularly for pre-symptomatic disease detection. Eight critical research gaps are identified, including the absence of a unified agricultural foundation model and limited climate-aware forecasting under non-stationary climate projections. A structured research agenda is proposed to accelerate translation from laboratory performance to globally equitable, field-deployable crop protection systems.

convolutional neural networks↗

Signum, a new fungicide with interesting properties in resistance management of fungal diseases in strawberries.

Signum, a new fungicide developed by BASF, was applied during 6 successive years against fungal diseases in strawberries. The product is formulated as a water dispersible granule, containing 6.7 % pyraclostrobin and 26.7 % boscalid. Pyraclostrobin is similar in chemistry to other strobilurin fungicides like kresoxim-methyl and trifloxystrobin, registered for fruit disease control. Boscalid belongs to the class of carboxyanilides. Both components in the premix formulation combine two different biochemical modes of action in the fungal cell respiration. Therefore, this co-formulation gives a broad-spectrum activity and also a reduced resistance risk for different target pathogens. Botrytis cinerea is the most important disease on strawberry-fruits and thus the control of fruit rot is mainly focused on this fungus. In average over 6 years, Signum has not only given a very good control against Botrytis fruit rot, but it has also shown a high performance in the control of Colletotrichum. Besides, Signum provides good control of powdery mildew (Podosphaera aphanis) and limits the shift to other fruit rots like leather rot (Phytophthora cactorum and leak (Rhizopus, Mucor). The availability of several categories of fungicide families with a different mode of action gives opportunities in alternating different fungicides and is the best guarantee for a sustainable control of fruit rot in all kinds of strawberry production methods. Signum should be integrated in an overall disease management program. Trials, in which the applications of Signum were timed on disease forecasting, based on environmental factors favorable for Botrytis development, were very promising. This tool can also help in establishing the IPM-concept in the production of strawberries.

Fragaria↗

The role of abdominal surgery in the treatment of advanced testicular germ cell tumours.

Twenty patients with advanced testicular teratoma and 1 with advanced seminoma have undergone abdominal surgery for the removal of residual disease following treatment by sequential chemotherapy (1). Fourteen out of the 21 patients (66 per cent) have achieved complete remission with a follow-up period of 6--41 months. In 12 patients (57 per cent) the tumour had undergone histological maturation or necrosis following chemotherapy, those patients in whom the tumour remained histologically active having a worse prognosis. Raised preoperative serum levels of the tumour markers human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) indicating active disease, forecast a particularly poor prognosis, 5 out of 9 such patients (55 per cent) having died. Computerized tomography gave false negative results in 3 patients (14 per cent). Postoperative complications were few, and 2 patients (9 per cent) suffered with failure of ejaculation. At present our policy is surgical removal of any residual mass after chemotherapy to determine the histology, and, wherever possible, to achieve complete clinical and biochemical remission. Six patients with an apparently poor prognosis have benefited directly from surgery and remain in long term remission. The selection of patients who benefit most from surgery can only be determined by more experience and longer follow up.

Adolescent↗

Cardiovascular diabetology in the core of a novel interleukins classification: the bad, the good and the aloof.

BACKGROUND: The impressive correlation between cardiovascular disease and glucose metabolism alterations has raised the likelihood that atherosclerosis and type 2 diabetes may share common antecedents. Inflammation is emerging as a conceivable etiologic mechanism for both. Interleukins are regulatory proteins with ability to accelerate or inhibit inflammatory processes. PRESENTATION OF THE HYPOTHESIS: A novel interleukins classification is described, based on their role in diabetes and atherosclerosis, hypothesizing that each interleukin (IL) acts on both diseases in the same direction--regardless if harmful, favorable or neutral. TESTING THE HYPOTHESIS: The 29 known interleukins were clustered into three groups: noxious (the "bad", 8 members), comprising IL-1, IL-2, IL-6, IL-7, IL-8, IL-15, IL-17 and IL-18; protective (the "good", 5 members), comprising IL-4, IL-10, IL-11, IL-12 and IL-13; and "aloof", comprising IL-5, IL-9, IL-14, IL-16 and IL-19 through IL-29 (15 members). Each group presented converging effects on both diseases. IL-3 was reluctant to clustering. IMPLICATIONS: These observations imply that 1) favorable effects of a given IL on either diabetes or atherosclerosis predicts similar effects on the other; 2) equally, harmful IL effects on one disease can be extrapolated to the other; and 3) absence of influence of a given IL on one of these diseases forecasts lack of effects on the other. These facts further support the unifying etiologic theory of both ailments, emphasizing the importance of a cardiovascular diabetologic approach to interleukins for future research. Pharmacologic targeting of these cytokines might provide an effective means to simultaneously control both atherosclerosis and diabetes.

Journal Article↗

The mortality experience of individuals on the Salford Psychiatric Case Register. I. All-cause mortality.

BACKGROUND: Several studies, mainly non-UK based, have reported higher than expected mortality for individuals with mental illness. This investigation in Salford (England) was undertaken to determine local experiences. METHOD: An historical cohort design was employed with record linkage to determine status at study end: maximum follow-up was 18 years. All 6952 individuals with schizophrenia, neuroses, affective or personality disorders, enrolled on the psychiatric case register between 1 January 1968 and 31 December 1975 were recruited: there were 199 exclusions. Death was the study end-point. RESULTS: Observed mortality was 65% higher than expected and elevated throughout the whole of follow-up. Mortality was higher in younger ages, females and subjects born locally. Circulatory disorders, injury and poisoning each caused approximately one-third of the excess deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Documenting mortality risk has important applications for prioritisation, resource allocation, developing control programmes, evaluating service effectiveness, disease forecasting and future research.

Adolescent↗

[Comparison of albumin analysis by fluorescent method with other clinical laboratory parameters in purulent peritonitis].

The concentration and properties of the blood-albumin linkage centers were examined by the method fluorescent probes, besides, the general clinical-and-laboratory indices in the blood serum of patients with diffusive purulent peritonitis were determined. The parameters as obtained by the method of fluorescent probes revealed a valuable information on a patients' severity condition and on a forecasted disease evolution; finally, they surpass, in a majority of cases, the generally accepted clinical-and-laboratory tests applicable to similar conditions.

Binding Sites↗

Limits to forecasting precision for outbreaks of directly transmitted diseases.

BACKGROUND: Early warning systems for outbreaks of infectious diseases are an important application of the ecological theory of epidemics. A key variable predicted by early warning systems is the final outbreak size. However, for directly transmitted diseases, the stochastic contact process by which outbreaks develop entails fundamental limits to the precision with which the final size can be predicted. METHODS AND FINDINGS: I studied how the expected final outbreak size and the coefficient of variation in the final size of outbreaks scale with control effectiveness and the rate of infectious contacts in the simple stochastic epidemic. As examples, I parameterized this model with data on observed ranges for the basic reproductive ratio (R0) of nine directly transmitted diseases. I also present results from a new model, the simple stochastic epidemic with delayed-onset intervention, in which an initially supercritical outbreak (R0 > 1) is brought under control after a delay. CONCLUSION: The coefficient of variation of final outbreak size in the subcritical case (R0 < 1) will be greater than one for any outbreak in which the removal rate is less than approximately 2.41 times the rate of infectious contacts, implying that for many transmissible diseases precise forecasts of the final outbreak size will be unattainable. In the delayed-onset model, the coefficient of variation (CV) was generally large (CV > 1) and increased with the delay between the start of the epidemic and intervention, and with the average outbreak size. These results suggest that early warning systems for infectious diseases should not focus exclusively on predicting outbreak size but should consider other characteristics of outbreaks such as the timing of disease emergence.

Communicable Disease Control↗

Capture-recapture and multiple-record systems estimation II: Applications in human diseases. International Working Group for Disease Monitoring and Forecasting.

This article evaluates the potential epidemiologic uses of capture-recapture, which include the primary area of determining disease frequency. Capture-recapture may be a means to effectively "count" new cases (incidence) or count existing cases (prevalence). Specific applications of capture-recapture in epidemiology are presented, one of which is its use in estimating death rates in a region close to Calcutta, India. The method also has considerable potential to assess suicides, and it may be the only technique to assess disease frequency in developing countries. In addition to generating an estimate of population size, another application of capture-recapture is to assess the costs of ascertainment relative to the degree of accuracy. This approach provides a formal means for assessing the cost-benefits of lists for the identification of cases. The authors believe that with careful and appropriate use, capture-recapture methods will provide a new approach that can considerably improve our ability to monitor disease.

Adolescent↗

Forecasting coronary heart disease incidence, mortality, and cost: the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model.

A computer simulation model was developed to project the future mortality, morbidity, and cost of coronary heart disease (CHD) in the United States population. The model contains a demographic-epidemiologic (DE) submodel, which stimulates the distribution of coronary risk factors and the conditional incidence of CHD in a demographically evolving population; a "bridge" submodel, which determines the outcome of the initial CHD event; and a disease history (DH) submodel, which simulates subsequent events in persons with a previous CHD event. The user of the model may simulate the effects of interventions, either preventive (i.e., risk factor modification) or therapeutic, upon mortality, morbidity, and cost for up to a 30-year period. If there were no future changes in risk factors or the efficacy of therapies after 1980, baseline projections indicate that the aging of the population, and especially the maturation of the post-World War II baby-boom generation, would increase CHD prevalence and annual incidence, mortality, and costs by about 40-50 per cent by the year 2010. Unprecedented reductions in risk factors would be required to offset these demographic effects on the absolute incidence of CHD. The specific forecasts could be inaccurate, however, as a consequence of erroneous assumptions or misestimated baseline data, and the model awaits validation based on actual future data.

Adult↗

Capture-recapture and multiple-record systems estimation I: History and theoretical development. International Working Group for Disease Monitoring and Forecasting.

This paper reviews the historical background and the theoretical development of models for the analysis of data from capture-recapture or multiple-record systems for estimating the size of closed populations. The models and methods were originally developed for use in fisheries and wildlife biology and were later adapted for use in connection with human populations. Application to epidemiology came much later. The simplest capture-recapture model involves two lists or samples and has four key assumptions: that the population is closed, that individuals can be matched from capture to recapture, that capture in the second sample is independent of capture in the first sample, and that the capture probabilities are homogeneous across all individuals in the population. Log-linear models provide a convenient representation for this basic capture-recapture model and its extensions to K lists. The paper provides an overview for these models and illustrates how they allow for dependency among the lists and heterogeneity in the population. The use of log-linear models for estimation in the presence of both dependence and heterogeneity is illustrated on a four-list example involving ascertainment of diabetes using data gathered in 1988 from residents of Casale Monferrato, Italy. The final section of the paper discusses techniques for model selection in the context of models for estimating the size of populations.

Bias↗

[A simple procedure to forecast the course of diseases (author's transl)].

A procedure is presented which enables the physician to forecast the course a disease will take by looking through a list of items with attached numbers, i.e. weights, and simply adding the weights of those items which hold true for a specific patient. The application of this procedure to three different diseases, namely schizophrenia, facial paresis, and aphasia is presented and proves its accuracy. Furthermore, a Monte Carlo Analysis of the procedure underlying this method--multiple linear regression of dichotomous items--leads to recommendations concerning the optimum definitions of items and the structuring of data. The procedure is compared with other methods used in computer diagnosis and its main advantage, apart from its high reliability, i.e. independence of computers in its application, is stressed. Its application to other diseases is encouraged and the presentation of data for processing by this Department is invited.

Aphasia↗

A versatile model of disease transmission applied to forecasting bovine tuberculosis dynamics in white-tailed deer populations.

A model was derived for disease transmission in dynamic host populations and its application was demonstrated in forecasting possible outcomes of a bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis) epidemic in a white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) population. The approach was mechanistic, based disease transmission on the probability of each susceptible individual becoming infected per unit time, and afforded the flexibility necessary to model epidemics in dynamic wildlife populations. This approach was applied to a sex- and age-structured deer population model. This model predicted that tuberculosis prevalence in a white-tailed deer population could rise from approximately 3% to about 21% over 25 yr, and that neither lowered deer survival nor lowered transmission would be completely effective in eliminating disease from the population. Maternal transmission appeared unimportant to modeled tuberculosis dynamics; in contrast, disease was not maintained for > 15 yr in models lacking lateral transmission.

Animals↗

Clinical utility of magnetic resonance imaging in pediatrics.

A review of over 100 articles and our own experience of scanning nearly 500 children with magnetic resonance (MR) imaging indicate that MR is well tolerated by children. Magnetic resonance is already proving to be the imaging modality of choice for the central nervous system. It should soon prove its utility for the study of most tumors, vascular problems, and infections of the musculoskeletal system. In other regions of the body, MR can identify abnormality well, but many of these abnormalities can be identified well with other modalities, and the precise role of MR is yet to be defined. We anticipate that the number of indications for the use of MR will grow rapidly.

Bone Diseases↗