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Results for “disease forecasting”

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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2026

Pathogen local adaptation shapes Pierce's disease of grapevines outcomes under field conditions.

Climate change is broadly expected to increase the range of many plant diseases, yet the current status of local thermal adaptation in many pathogens is poorly understood. Xylella fastidiosa (Xf) is a global bacterial plant pathogen that causes Pierce's disease (PD) of grapevines and infects over 700 other host plant species, impacting both agricultural and natural ecosystems. In a common garden experiment with 477 vines in the field, we compared PD outcomes from a local (colder climate in CA) vs non-local (warmer climate in CA) bacterial strain in 13 Mediterranean grapevine varieties over 3 years. Relative to the local strain, there was 77% lower overwinter survival in the non-local strain from a warmer climate, strongly indicating local adaptation in these CA Xf populations. Host genotype also had a significant effect on pathogen winter survival, and grapevine varieties differed in PD susceptibility. Additionally, we assessed in planta evolution of the two pathogen strains over 3 years by whole-genome sequencing 58 field-derived isolates. There were convergent loss-of-function mutations in genes encoding minor Type IV pilin (T4P) proteins, which control twitching motility and other virulence phenotypes, suggesting rapid adaptive evolution. Our results suggest local adaptation to cold temperatures in a bacterial plant pathogen and a possible role for minor Type IV pilins in thermal adaptation. These findings demonstrate the urgent need to incorporate X. fastidiosa evolution and local thermal adaptation into global models of PD spread. Differentiating pathotypes with distinct thermal adaptations will improve disease forecasting and inform quarantine decisions.IMPORTANCEForecasting the movement of plant pathogens is a critical issue under global warming to effectively manage future plant disease outbreaks. Yet, current plant pathogen local thermal adaptation is often unaccounted for, especially in bacterial pathogens. Our study examines local adaptation to temperature in a bacterial plant pathogen, Xylella fastidiosa, that causes disease in grapevines in addition to infecting 700 other plant species. In a large-scale field experiment across 13 grapevine varieties, we demonstrate local adaptation in pathogen winter survival in distinct Xylella fastidiosa strains. Additionally, we found evidence of adaptive evolution in just 3 years, as we observed convergent mutations after resequencing strains that evolved in the field. Our results suggest that X. fastidiosa populations-even within a small geographic area-have distinct adaptations to winter temperatures and may exhibit differential responses to warming winters.

Type IV pili↗
PubMed2026

Multimodal Deep Learning and Foundation Models for Early Detection and Forecasting of Plant Diseases.

Plant diseases destroy 20-40% of global food production annually, posing a critical threat to food security for a projected population of 9.7 billion by 2050. Conventional diagnostic approaches relying on expert visual assessment are slow, costly, and unsuitable for modern agricultural scales. While deep convolutional neural networks demonstrated early promise, single-modality, image-centric systems consistently fail under real-world field conditions characterized by variable lighting, co-occurring infections, and cultivar diversity. This review synthesizes a decade of progress across four interconnected frontiers: the evolution of deep learning architectures for plant disease detection; the adaptation of foundation models including CLIP, SAM, and DINOv2 to agricultural contexts; the development of multimodal fusion frameworks integrating imagery, environmental, genomic, and hyperspectral data; and the transition from static disease diagnosis to descriptive comparison of reported metrics, which suggested that multimodal approaches frequently reported improved diagnostic performance relative to corresponding single-modality baselines, although direct cross-study comparison was limited by methodological heterogeneity. A systematic review following PRISMA guidelines identifies eligible comparative studies. Descriptive comparison of reported performance metrics across these studies indicated that multimodal approaches generally achieved higher accuracy and sensitivity than single-modality models, particularly for pre-symptomatic disease detection. Eight critical research gaps are identified, including the absence of a unified agricultural foundation model and limited climate-aware forecasting under non-stationary climate projections. A structured research agenda is proposed to accelerate translation from laboratory performance to globally equitable, field-deployable crop protection systems.

convolutional neural networks↗
PubMed1977

[A simple procedure to forecast the course of diseases (author's transl)].

A procedure is presented which enables the physician to forecast the course a disease will take by looking through a list of items with attached numbers, i.e. weights, and simply adding the weights of those items which hold true for a specific patient. The application of this procedure to three different diseases, namely schizophrenia, facial paresis, and aphasia is presented and proves its accuracy. Furthermore, a Monte Carlo Analysis of the procedure underlying this method--multiple linear regression of dichotomous items--leads to recommendations concerning the optimum definitions of items and the structuring of data. The procedure is compared with other methods used in computer diagnosis and its main advantage, apart from its high reliability, i.e. independence of computers in its application, is stressed. Its application to other diseases is encouraged and the presentation of data for processing by this Department is invited.

Aphasia↗
PubMed1977

The future of cardiac surgery in Australia. A prediction from a 15 year experience.

Statistics are presented which demonstrate that the load of congenital heart surgery in Australia is between 900 and 1,000 cases per year. For valvular heart surgery the load is also approximatley 1,000 cases per year. About 800 to 900 operations are undertaken annually to institute cardiac pacing. The number of operations for coronary artery disease has increased in an explosive manner from less than 100 cases in 1970 to more than 1,000 cases in 1975. The implications of this marked increase in operation for coronary artery disease is of paramount importance for future planning in cardiac surgery.

Adult↗
PubMed1979

Forecasting progress in preventive dentistry.

Technological forecasting is a new discipline with research methodologies of its own. One of the methods is the delphi-experiment. Predictive experiments have been conducted in both medicine and pharmacology, but not yet in the field of dentistry and dental research. The first round of the present dental delphi-experiment was conducted in 1975 with the participation of an international panel consisting of 91 experts. The experts were requested to respond to six questions related to dental caries and six questions related to periodontal disease. Numerous forecasts concerning future developments or breakthroughs were given by the international panel. This report discusses the preliminary findings.

Dental Caries↗
PubMed1977

The future of vision screening.

The future of vision screening is presently receiving heated debate. Recent federal legislative activity in the area of comprehensive health planning has caused renewed interest in vision screening. Optometric recommendations supported at various governmental levels call for the development of standards for comprehensive vision screening of school children on a national scale. This paper attempts to review the philosophy and justification for school vision screening and to bring the readers up to date on related governmental activity. The question of adequate manpower to implement a nationwide vision screening program is discussed, and an argument is developed for preparing school nurse practitioners to assume an expanded role in comprehensive vision screening.

Adolescent↗