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At least 217 records · Page 12Linked to original sources
PubMed2000

Decision-tree sensitivity analysis for cost-effectiveness of chest 2-fluoro-2-D-[(18)F]fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography in patients with pulmonary nodules (non-small cell lung carcinoma) in Japan.

CONTEXT: Recent studies have demonstrated the potential cost-effectiveness of using 2-fluoro-2-D-[(18)F]fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) in the management of non-small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC), but because of differences in health-care systems, those findings may not hold true in a Japanese hospital. OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of the chest CT plus chest FDG-PET strategy in Japan. DESIGN: Decision-tree sensitivity analysis based on the two competing strategies of chest CT-alone vs chest CT plus chest FDG-PET. STUDY SELECTION: A simulation of 1,000 patients in whom NSCLC, stage IIIB or less, was suspected was created using baselines of other relevant variables in regard to sensitivity, specificity, mortality, life expectancy, and cost from published data. METHODS: We surveyed the relevant literature for the choice of variables. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Expected marginal cost and expected life expectancy gain for NSCLC patients. RESULTS: The chest CT plus chest FDG-PET strategy yielded an expected life expectancy gain of 0.607 years (7.3 months) per patient, compared with the alternative strategy of chest CT-alone. Using an FDG-PET examination cost of 1.0 x 10(5) yen (around $700 US) per study, the cost increment was 2.18 x 10(5) yen/yr/patient. CONCLUSIONS: The chest CT plus chest FDG-PET strategy in patients with NSCLC is unlikely to be cost-effective in Japan. However, patient life expectancy gain would increase as a result of improved staging of NSCLC. These preliminary results should be confirmed by further studies for specific environments.

Adult↗
PubMed1994

Triadic discrimination testing: refinement of Thurstonian and sequential sensitivity analysis approaches.

The effect of cognitive search strategies and variations in the oral environment on discrimination test performance were investigated. Subjects were required to discriminate between low concentration NaCl solutions and water using the 3-AFC and triangle test protocols. As predicted by Thurstonian modeling, subjects obtained a higher proportion of correct tests for the 3-AFC protocol than for the triangle protocol. The d' values obtained from both protocols corresponded. As predicted by the Sequential Sensitivity Analysis Model, which is largely based on changes in the oral environment, subjects obtained a higher proportion of correct tests for triads containing one NaCl stimulus than for triads containing one water stimulus. Measurement of physical signal strengths of the stimuli, by analysing the Na cation concentration change in the oral environment on tasting, indicated that the classical Thurstone-Ura two-distribution model was insufficient. The strong carry-over effects in the chemical senses require a model based on more than two distributions. It was also noted that subjects did not always use the search strategy required for a given test protocol. The artifactual effects of strategy change during an experiment are discussed.

Adaptation, Physiological↗
PubMed2001

Correlation of 210Po implanted in glass with radon gas exposure: sensitivity analysis of critical parameters using a Monte-Carlo approach.

In recent years, 210Po implanted in glass artefacts has been used as an indicator of the mean radon gas concentration in dwellings in the past. Glass artefacts have been selected in many dwellings and the alpha-recoil implanted 210Po concentration has been measured using various techniques. Some of these retrospective techniques use a model to estimate the retrospective radon gas on the basis of this surface 210Po activity. The accumulation of 210Po on glass surfaces is determined by the deposition regime over the exposure period. The 210Po activity is determined not only by the radon progeny deposition velocities, but by other room parameters such as ventilation rate, aerosol conditions and the surface to volume ratio of the room. Up to now in using room models, a nominal or 'base-case' scenario is used, i.e. a single value is chosen for each input parameter. In this paper a Monte-Carlo analysis is presented in which a probability distribution for each parameter is chosen, based on measurements quoted in the literature. A 210Po surface activity is calculated using a single value drawn from each of the parameter distributions using a pseudo-random number generator. This process is repeated n times (up to 20,000), producing n independent scenarios with corresponding 210Po values. This process permits a sensitivity analysis to be carried out to see the effect of changes in inputs on the model output.

Aerosols↗
PubMed2002

Use of sensitivity analysis to assess reliability of metabolic and physiological models.

Because ethical considerations often preclude directly determining the human health effects of treatments or interventions by experimentation, such effects are estimated by extrapolating reactions predicted from animal experiments. Under such conditions, it must be demonstrated that the reliability of the extrapolated predictions is not excessively affected by inherent data limitations and other components of model specification. This is especially true of high-level models composed of ad hoc algebraic equations whose parameters do not correspond to specific physical properties or processes. Models based on independent experimental data restricting the numerical space of parameters that do represent actual physical properties can be represented at a more detailed level. Sensitivities of the computed trajectories to parameter variations permit more detailed attribution of uncertainties in the predictions to these low-level properties. S-systems, in which parameters are estimated empirically, and physiological models, whose parameters can be estimated accurately from independent data, are used to illustrate the applicability of trajectory sensitivity analysis to lower-level models.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Sensitivity analysis for computer model projections of hurricane losses.

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is fraught with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 billion dollars to 3 billion dollars in losses late on the 12th to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm struck the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor and moved across the densely populated central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates in the 28 dollars to 31 billion dollars range, and final estimates converging at 15 billion dollars as the actual intensity at landfall became apparent. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has a great appreciation for the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM contracts with a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a sophisticated computer model based on the Holland wind field. Sensitivity analyses presented in this article utilize standardized regression coefficients to quantify the contribution of the computer input variables to the magnitude of the wind speed.

Journal Article↗
PubMed1995

Cold water immersion simulations using the Wissler Texas Thermal Model: validation and sensitivity analysis.

BACKGROUND: Wissler's Texas Thermal Model (TM) has been used to simulate the effects of thermal stresses on individuals under a variety of conditions. As part of a U.S. Navy effort to develop integrated protection garments, TM was modified to predict tolerance to cold water immersion (CWI) with garments with clo values less than 0.1 (15). METHODS: With these modifications, TM predictions were validated using experimental data obtained from 39 males and females during anti-exposure suit CWI assessments. Data analyses were based on changes in rectal (Tre) and various skin temperatures (Tsk). A sensitivity analysis was also performed to determine which TM parameters were most affected during simulated CWI. The condition tested was head-out immersion in 4.4 degrees C water by a 72.6 kg man (10 mm mean skinfold thickness). RESULTS: For most of the subject pool, the estimated change in Tre, chest, thigh, calf, and arm temperatures were not statistically different from experimental values. However, TM predictions were less accurate with respect to female responses. Based on thermal end points, TM predictions indicated that the following body segments were most sensitive to changes in insulation level (ordered from most to least important): chest and abdomen, leg, head, and arm. The physical parameters mean skinfold thickness, basal metabolic rate, body weight, and exercise metabolic rate had the most impact on TM predictions. CONCLUSIONS: The relative benefit of increased insulation on individual body segments was identified to aid garment design. Further, the relative importance of model physical parameters was identified so that judicious initial conditions could be selected to ensure that only garment design changes would be reflected in model predictions.

Abdomen↗
PubMed2000

Modeling and direct sensitivity analysis of biogenic emissions impacts on regional ozone formation in the Mexico-U.S. border area.

A spatially and temporally resolved biogenic hydrocarbon and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions inventory has been developed for a region along the Mexico-U.S. border area. Average daily biogenic non-methane organic gases (NMOG) emissions for the 1700 x 1000 km2 domain were estimated at 23,800 metric tons/day (62% from Mexico and 38% from the United States), and biogenic NOx was estimated at 1230 metric tons/day (54% from Mexico and 46% from the United States) for the July 18-20, 1993, ozone episode. The biogenic NMOG represented 74% of the total NMOG emissions, and biogenic NOx was 14% of the total NOx. The CIT photochemical airshed model was used to assess how biogenic emissions impact air quality. Predicted ground-level ozone increased by 5-10 ppb in most rural areas, 10-20 ppb near urban centers, and 20-30 ppb immediately downwind of the urban centers compared to simulations in which only anthropogenic emissions were used. A sensitivity analysis of predicted ozone concentration to emissions was performed using the decoupled direct method for three dimensional air quality models (DDM-3D). The highest positive sensitivity of ground-level ozone concentration to biogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions (i.e., increasing biogenic VOC emissions results in increasing ozone concentrations) was predicted to be in locations with high NOx levels, (i.e., the urban areas). One urban center--Houston--was predicted to have a slight negative sensitivity to biogenic NO emissions (i.e., increasing biogenic NO emissions results in decreasing local ozone concentrations). The highest sensitivities of ozone concentrations to on-road mobile source VOC emissions, all positive, were mainly in the urban areas. The highest sensitivities of ozone concentrations to on-road mobile source NOx emissions were predicted in both urban (either positive or negative sensitivities) and rural (positive sensitivities) locations.

Agriculture↗
PubMed2003

Modeling sorbent injection for mercury control in baghouse filters: I--model development and sensitivity analysis.

A two-stage mathematical model for Hg removal using powdered activated carbon injection upstream of a baghouse filter was developed, with the first stage accounting for removal in the ductwork and the second stage accounting for additional removal caused by the retention of carbon particles on the filter. The model shows that removal in the ductwork is minimal, and the additional carbon detention time from the entrapment of the carbon particles in the fabric filter enhances the Hg removal from the gas phase. A sensitivity analysis on the model shows that Hg removal is dependent on the isotherm parameters, the carbon pore radius and tortuosity, the C/Hg ratio, and the carbon particle radius.

Adsorption↗
PubMed1985

Parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis of a nonlinearly elastic static lung model.

A model for the static pressure-volume behavior of the lung parenchyma based on a pseudo-elastic strain energy function was tested. Values of the model parameters and their variances were estimated by an optimal least-squares fit of the model-predicted pressures to the corresponding data from excised, saline-filled dog lungs. Although the model fit data from twelve lungs very well, the coefficients of variation for parameter values differed greatly. To analyze the sensitivity of the model output to its parameters, we examined an approximate Hessian, H, of the least-squares objective function. Based on the determinant and condition number of H, we were able to set formal criteria for choosing the most reliable estimates of parameter values and their variances. This in turn allowed us to specify a normal range of parameter values for these dog lungs. Thus the model not only describes static pressure-volume data, but also uses the data to estimate parameters from a fundamental constitutive equation. The optimal parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis developed here can be widely applied to other physiologic systems.

Animals↗
PubMed1976

Sensitivity analysis of discrete-time interregional population systems.

This paper shows analytically how (a) the long-run growth rate and (b) the long-run proportional distribution of an interregional population system with a time-homogeneous structural matrix are affected by small changes or errors in (a) the natural growth rates of individual regions and (b) the interregional migration rates. Furthermore, the analytic results are applied to an eight-region Canadian population system. Finally, it is claimed that the method introduced here can be easily applied to sensitivity analysis of both the intrinsic growth rate and the "stable" age-composition of the Leslie model with respect to changes in age-specific birth and survival rates.

Canada↗
PubMed1998

Modeling bronchial circulation with application to soluble gas exchange: description and sensitivity analysis.

The steady-state exchange of inert gases across an in situ canine trachea has recently been shown to be limited equally by diffusion and perfusion over a wide range (0.01-350) of blood solubilities (betablood; ml . ml-1 . atm-1). Hence, we hypothesize that the exchange of ethanol (betablood = 1,756 at 37 degrees C) in the airways depends on the blood flow rate from the bronchial circulation. To test this hypothesis, the dynamics of the bronchial circulation were incorporated into an existing model that describes the simultaneous exchange of heat, water, and a soluble gas in the airways. A detailed sensitivity analysis of key model parameters was performed by using the method of Latin hypercube sampling. The model accurately predicted a previously reported experimental exhalation profile of ethanol (R2 = 0.991) as well as the end-exhalation airstream temperature (34.6 degrees C). The model predicts that 27, 29, and 44% of exhaled ethanol in a single exhalation are derived from the tissues of the mucosa and submucosa, the bronchial circulation, and the tissue exterior to the submucosa (which would include the pulmonary circulation), respectively. Although the concentration of ethanol in the bronchial capillary decreased during inspiration, the three key model outputs (end-exhaled ethanol concentration, the slope of phase III, and end-exhaled temperature) were all statistically insensitive (P > 0.05) to the parameters describing the bronchial circulation. In contrast, the model outputs were all sensitive (P < 0.05) to the thickness of tissue separating the core body conditions from the bronchial smooth muscle. We conclude that both the bronchial circulation and the pulmonary circulation impact soluble gas exchange when the entire conducting airway tree is considered.

Administration, Inhalation↗
PubMed2000

Prediction of Individual Muscle Forces Using Lagrange Multipliers Method - A Model of the Upper Human Limb in the Sagittal Plane: II. Numerical Experiments and Sensitivity Analysis.

Using the method of Lagrange multipliers an analytical solution of the optimization problem formulated for a two-dimensional, 3DOF model of the human upper limb has been described in Part I of this investigation. The objective criterion used is the following: [formula: see text], where F(i) -s are the muscle forces modelled and c(i) -s are unknown weight factors. This study is devoted to the numerical experiments performed in order to investigate which sets of the weight factors may predict physiologically reasonable muscle forces and joint reactions. A sensitivity analysis is also presented. The influence of: the gravity forces, different external loads applied to the hand, changes of the weight factors and of joint angle on the optimal solution is studied. A general conclusion may be drawn: using the above mentioned objective criterion, practically all motor tasks performed by the human upper limb may be described if the c(i) -s are properly chosen. These weight factors generally depend on the joint moments and must be different (their magnitudes as well as their signs) for agonistic muscles and for their antagonists.

Journal Article↗
PubMed1998

The stabilizing effects of the acquired immunity on the schistosomiasis transmission modeling--the sensitivity analysis.

A mathematical model is proposed to analyze the effects of acquired immunity on the transmission of schistosomiasis in the human host. From this model the prevalence curve dependent on four parameters can be obtained. These parameters were estimated fitting the data by the maximum likelihood method. The model showed a good retrieving capacity of real data from two endemic areas of schistosomiasis: Touros, Brazil (Schistosoma mansoni) and Misungwi, Tanzania (S. haematobium). Also, the average worm burden per person and the dispersion of parasite per person in the community can be obtained from the model. In this paper, the stabilizing effects of the acquired immunity assumption in the model are assessed in terms of the epidemiological variables as follows. Regarded to the prevalence curve, we calculate the confidence interval, and related to the average worm burden and the worm dispersion in the community, the sensitivity analysis (the range of the variation) of both variables with respect to their parameters is performed.

Animals↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Model based sensitivity analysis of arterial pressure response to hemodialysis induced hypovolemia.

The role of hemodynamic and regulatory factors in the arterial pressure response to hemodialysis induced hypovolemia was investigated by means of a computer model of the cardiovascular system, including the main short-term pressure regulatory mechanisms. The model mimics the arterial and venous systemic circulation, Starling's law and inotropic heart regulation, arterial and cardiopulmonary baroreflex controls of resistance, and capacitance vessels. All of the model parameters have a clear physiologic meaning: 10 represent the systemic circulation, 4 describe cardiac pump performance, and 3 characterize baroreflex regulation. Sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the effect of each parameter on the pressure response to mild hypovolemia (a 10% blood volume reduction after 4 hours). The results demonstrate that circulatory parameters, such as resistances and compliances, have no relevant effect upon the pressure response. Conversely, regulation of venous capacity seems to play a pivotal role in sustaining arterial pressure during hemodialysis induced hypovolemia. Regulation of systemic peripheral resistance exerts a compensatory action only as long as the blood volume reduction is < 5%, but it is inadequate to compensate for a larger blood volume reduction when venous capacity regulation is absent. A paradoxical arterial pressure increase during hypovolemia can be referred to a prevalence of cardiopulmonary afferences in the regulatory process.

Blood Pressure↗
PubMed1988

Should maternal alpha-fetoprotein estimation be carried out in centers where ultrasound screening is routine? A sensitivity analysis approach.

We describe a case of small, open spina bifida that was detected on the basis of maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein levels but consistently missed on careful ultrasound examination. This prompted us to reexamine the policy (adopted by an increasing number of departments) of relying exclusively on ultrasound examination for the detection of spinal lesions. In this article we therefore analyze the number of additional cases of spina bifida that could be detected by offering maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein screening in addition to a routine ultrasound examination. Our calculations are made on the basis of published assessments of the performance of these tests and on the assumptions about test independence. We test our conclusions against a wide variety of test performance values in a detailed sensitivity analysis. The final decision to carry out maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein testing is a value judgment, but this decision should be based on realistic numeric estimates of the potential benefits and hazards of this procedure.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2003

Validation and sensitivity analysis of a probabilistic model for dietary exposure assessment to pesticide residues with a Basque Country duplicate diet study.

The 'fitness for purpose' of a probabilistic model designed to assess dietary exposure to pesticides was validated. The model had to meet two prerequisites. First, it should provide more realistic estimates of intake than conservative methods. Second, it should not underestimate 'true' intakes. True intakes were estimated using a duplicate diet study. Three approaches were used to check the prerequisites: visual comparison, a statistical test of a high percentile, and a comparison for each infant of the duplicate diet, conservative and model intake values. Compliance with the prerequisites was met for the six pesticides selected, in the three approaches. Model outcome distributions reduced the uncertainty, considered as the difference between conservative and duplicate diet intakes, by 75-98% for high percentiles, depending on the pesticides. A sensitivity analysis of the model based on analysis of variance for selected factors was conducted for three pesticides. The factors included concentration and food consumption input data presentations, values assigned to pesticide-food commodities without analysis, values assigned to samples with results below the limit of reporting, unit-to-unit variability and processing factors. Their significance and relevance were studied. Assigning values to pesticide-food commodities without analysis and processing factors, when available, were the most relevant factors in this study.

Diet↗
PubMed2005

Three-dimensional computer-aided design based design sensitivity analysis and shape optimization of the stem using adaptive p-method.

The number of stem designs for total hip arthroplasty is increasing, and occasionally design changes have yielded unexpected clinical results. At present, we are not able to clearly identify which parameter of the stem is most important, and the optimum value of many parameters. The goals of this study were to identify which parameter is most important, to understand the effect of design change, and to find the optimum stem shape. For this purpose, we used adaptive p-method together with three-dimensional computer-aided design software program for the design sensitivity analysis (DSA) and shape optimization of the stem. The results suggested that increasing the lateral and medial width of the distal cross-section together with decreasing the medial-lateral width and the medial radius of the distal cross-section from the default value would lead to a decrease in the largest maximum principal stress of the distal cement. The medial width of middle cross-section, however, was not so simple. The result of DSA suggested that decreasing this parameter from the default value decreased the stress in the distal cement, but the optimum shape was obtained by increasing this parameter. The method used in this study will assist our engineers and surgeons in the process of modifying and optimizing the stem design.

Arthroplasty, Replacement, Hip↗
PubMed2004

Biomechanical modeling and sensitivity analysis of bipedal running ability. I. Extant taxa.

I used a simple mathematical model of the inverse dynamics of locomotion to estimate the minimum muscle masses required to maintain quasi-static equilibrium about the four main limb joints at mid-stance of fast running. Models of 10 extant taxa (a human, a kangaroo, two lizards, an alligator, and five birds) were analyzed in various bipedal poses to examine how anatomy, size, limb orientation, and other model parameters influence running ability. I examined how the muscle masses required for fast running compare to the muscle masses that are actually able to exert moments about the hip, knee, ankle, and toe joints, to see how support ability varies across the limb. I discuss the assumptions and limitations of the models, using sensitivity analysis to see how widely the results differed with feasible parameter input values. Even with a wide range of input values, the models validated the analysis procedure. Animals that are known to run bipedally were calculated as able to preserve quasi-static equilibrium about their hindlimb joints at mid-stance, whereas non-bipedal runners (iguanas and alligators) were recognized as having too little muscle mass to run quickly in bipedal poses. Thus, this modeling approach should be reliable for reconstructing running ability in extinct bipeds such as nonavian dinosaurs. The models also elucidated how key features are important for bipedal running capacity, such as limb orientation, muscle moment arms, muscle fascicle lengths, and body size. None of the animals modeled had extensor muscle masses acting about any one joint that were 7% or more of their body mass, which provides a reasonable limit for how much muscle mass is normally apportioned within a limb to act about a particular joint. The models consistently showed that a key biomechanical limit on running ability is the capacity of ankle extensors to generate sufficiently large joint moments. Additionally, the analysis reveals how large ratite birds remain excellent runners despite their larger size; they have apomorphically large extensor muscles with relatively high effective mechanical advantage. Finally, I reconstructed the evolution of running ability in the clade Reptilia, showing that the ancestors of extant birds likely were quite capable runners, even though they had already reduced key hip extensors such as M. caudofemoralis longus.

Alligators and Crocodiles↗