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Validation of the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale and Montgommery and Asberg Rating Scales in terms of AGECAT depression cases.

OBJECTIVE: To validate the Hamilton Depression (17) and Montgommery and Asberg Depression Scales as research instruments in older depressed community residents. DESIGN: External validation against GMS/AGECAT case level in the recruitment of older community residents for an antidepressant trial. ANALYSES: Receiver operator curves were generated for each rating scale, using GMS/AGECAT case level in external criterion. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of both rating instruments were examined in the whole sample and age and gender subgroups. MADRS and HAM-D cut-off scores differentiating GMS/AGECAT cases from subcases were identified. RESULTS: HAM-D cut-off score of 16 and MADRS score of 21 were identified as differentiating case from sub-case. Diagnostic accuracy of both instruments was good, reflecting good sensitivity and specificity across both genders and sub-age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Both scales performed well in this population. These scores provide researchers with externally validated and clinically relevant cut-off scores in designing trials in the management of older depressed community residents.

Aged↗

[Clinical usefulness of oligoclonal bands].

The presence of oligoclonal bands (OCB) of immunoglobulin G (IgG) is in our days the most useful finding in the study of the CSF for the diagnosis of multiple sclerosis (MS). The most sensitive method for the detection of OCB is the isoelectric focusing followed by immunoblotting. The prevalence of OCB changes in different populations with a rank of results from 60 to 95 97%. We have determined the prevalence of OCB in our population and the sensitivity and the specificity of the technique used in our laboratory. We have included 391 patients in whom we analysed the presence of OCB, subdivided in; Group 0: Diagnosed of MS, group 1: First episode of demyelinating process, group 2: Neurological disorders considered noninflammatory or nonautoimmune (NINA),group 3: Neurological disorders considered inflammatory, infectious or autoimmune (IIA). The presence of OCB was searched in CSF and serum simultaneously using isoelectric focusing and immunoblotting. In order to standardize the technique we achieved and internal and external validation. Internal validation: sensitivity and specificity (using as a control group first the group NINA and after the group IA). External validation: we choose 10 pairs of CSF/serum from patients with different diagnostics and sent to a reference laboratory ( Karolinska Institute Medical School) that was blind of our results and of the diagnostics. The prevalence of OCB in each group has been: group 0 (MS): 87.7%, group 1: 54.8%, group 2 (NINA): 17.5%, group 3(IIA): 52.7%. Sensitivity: 97.7%, specificity using group NINA as control 82.5% and using group IIA 45.7%. Concordance with the reference laboratory in 9/10 determinations. We conclude that in our population the prevalence of OCB, in patients with MS, is lower than in Northern Europe. The OCB appear in may inflammatory, autoimmune diseases, their specificity for the diagnostic of MS is low.

Autoimmune Diseases↗

Measuring household food security in poor Venezuelan households.

OBJECTIVE: To validate abbreviated methods that estimate food security level among poor communities in Caracas, Venezuela. DESIGN: Two independent cross-sectional studies were undertaken to internally and externally validate simple quantitative/qualitative methods. The quantitative measure was constructed from data on household food availability, gathered using the list-recall method. It is a count of the foods that explain 85% or more of household energy availability. The qualitative measure is a score of female-perceived food insecurity level estimated with a modified 'hunger index', reflecting food resource constraints and hunger experiences within the home. Socio-economic and food behaviour data that may predict household food security (HFS) levels were gathered. The second study was repeated a year later to measure the impact of an increase in the minimum wage on HFS levels. SETTING: Two poor urban communities in Caracas, Venezuela. SUBJECTS: All households in both communities that complied with selection criteria(poor and very poor families that share food resources) and were willing to participate. The sample comprised 238 and 155 female household food managers in the two communities. RESULTS: In 1995, data from females in 238 urban poor households provided evidence for the overall validity of the method. Its application in 1997 to 155 households in the other community gave support to the external validity of the method. Measures were repeated in 1998 on 133 subjects of the above sample, when the minimum wage was increased by 23%. Evidence is presented showing the sensitivity of the method to changes in the determinants of HFS. Data analysed during these three periods suggest that the method can be simplified further by using the food diversity score instead of the quantitative measure since these variables correlate highly with one another(r > or = 2 0.854). CONCLUSIONS: This simple method is a valid and precise measure of food security among poor urban households in Caracas. Th equalitative/quantitative measures complement each other as they capture different dimensions of HFS.

Cross-Sectional Studies↗

Artificial Intelligence for Diagnosis, Risk Stratification, and Prognosis of Neuroblastoma - A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PURPOSE: To synthesizes evidence on artificial intelligence (AI) performance in neuroblastoma (NB) diagnosis, risk stratification, prognosis, and genomic characterization. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted following PRISMA 2020 guidelines (PROSPERO: CRD42024539475) across five databases. Meta-analyses used random-effects models with logit-transformed Area Under the Curve (AUCs) and cluster-robust standard errors. AI models were classified as Machine Learning Models (MLM) or Hybrid Nomograms (HN) based on their construction methodology. RESULTS: Of 3,742 articles identified, 53 were included. MLMs demonstrated higher point estimates than radiologists in differential diagnosis (AUC: 0.87 vs. 0.83), though this difference was not statistically significant and carried substantial uncertainty. HNs achieved stronger performance in risk stratification (AUC: 0.87). AI-derived nomograms (AUC: 0.9) and gene signatures (AUC: 0.8) outperformed conventional prognostic markers descriptively. Chemotherapy response prediction remained below clinical utility thresholds across all model types. Only 33.9% of models reported calibration and 24.5% underwent external validation. CONCLUSIONS: AI demonstrates proof-of-concept across multiple NB clinical domains. However, clinical adoption remains premature given persistent gaps in external validation, calibration, dataset size, and pediatric-specific model development. Future studies should test these models prospectively in multicenter pediatric cohorts, ideally through COG or SIOPEN, using shared definitions for diagnosis, risk group, treatment response, and survival outcomes.

Humans↗

Using prognostic models in clinical infertility.

The chance that a couple who have tried to conceive for 12 months will succeed without assisted conception treatment is still higher than the chance that the same couple will benefit from treatment. In this context, it is important to assess the chance that a treatment-independent or 'spontaneous' pregnancy will occur in a couple whose wish for a child is unfulfilled. Prognostic models can be useful in this assessment. In recent years, prognostic models have been published both for the occurrence of 'spontaneous' pregnancy and for pregnancy after in vitro fertilization. This article discusses the theoretical aspects of prognostic modelling and assesses whether the current prognostic models are good enough to justify their use in clinical practice. The performance of existing models for the prediction of spontaneous conception was found to be acceptable on internal as well as on external validation. However, the performance of the existing models predicting IVF outcome was found to be disappointing on the few occasions on which such external validation has been performed.

Journal Article↗

Predictive validity of the strain index in manufacturing facilities.

The Strain Index is a job analysis method for determining if workers are exposed to increased risk of developing distal upper extremity disorders. Its predictive and external validity was initially demonstrated in a pork processing plant. The purpose of this study was to evaluate its predictive validity in two manufacturing plants. While blinded to health outcomes, investigators analyzed the right and left sides of 28 single-task jobs using the Strain Index and classified them as "hazardous" or "safe" based on the Strain Index score. Subsequently, OSHA 200 logs were used to ascertain the occurrence of distal upper extremity disorders retrospectively. If at least one such disorder occurred on the right or left side during the prior three years, that side was classified as "positive." If no such disorder was reported during the prior three years, that side was classified as "negative." When comparing sides, symmetry between morbidity and hazard classification was required. When comparing jobs, such symmetry was not required. Evidence of association between the hazard classifications and the morbidity classifications for the 56 sides and the 28 jobs was evaluated using 2 x 2 contingency tables. For the sides, the association between hazard classification and morbidity classification was statistically significant with an empirical odds ratio of 73.2. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 1.00, 0.84, 0.47, and 1.00. Similar results were noted for the jobs--the empirical odds ratio was 106.6, and the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 1.00, 0.91, 0.75, and 1.00. While these results provide additional evidence of the Strain Index's external validity and predictive validity, it should be noted that these jobs involved the performance of single tasks.

Arm Injuries↗

Predictive validity of the Strain Index in turkey processing.

The Strain Index is a job analysis method for determining if workers are exposed to increased risk of developing distal upper extremity disorders. Its predictive and external validity was initially demonstrated in a pork processing plant. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the predictive validity of the Strain Index in one turkey processing plant. While blinded to health outcomes, investigators analyzed the right and left sides of workers in 28 jobs using the Strain Index and classified them as "hazardous" or "safe" based on the Strain Index score. Subsequently, OSHA 200 logs were used to ascertain the occurrence of distal upper extremity disorders retrospectively. If at least one such disorder had occurred on the right or left side during the previous 3 years, that side was classified as "positive." If no such disorder was reported during the previous 3 years, that side was classified as "negative." When comparing sides, symmetry between morbidity and hazard classification was required. When comparing jobs, such symmetry was not required. Evidence of association between the hazard classifications and the morbidity classifications for the 56 sides and the 28 jobs was evaluated using 2 x 2 contingency tables. For the sides, the association between hazard classification and morbidity classification was statistically significant, with an odds ratio of 22.0. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 0.86, 0.79, 0.92, and 0.65, respectively. Similar results were noted for the jobs--the odds ratio was 50.0, and the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 0.91, 0.83, 0.95, and 0.71. These results provide additional evidence of the external validity and predictive validity of the Strain Index.

Animals↗

Development and validation of the Headache Needs Assessment (HANA) survey.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a brief survey of migraine-related quality-of-life issues. The Headache Needs Assessment (HANA) questionnaire was designed to assess two dimensions of the chronic impact of migraine (frequency and bothersomeness). METHODS: Seven issues related to living with migraine were posed as ratings of frequency and bothersomeness. Validation studies were performed in a Web-based survey, a clinical trial responsiveness population, and a retest reliability population. Headache characteristics (eg, frequency, severity, and treatment), demographic information, and the Headache Disability Inventory were used for external validation. RESULTS: The HANA was completed in full by 994 adults in the Web survey, with a mean total score of 77.98 +/- 40.49 (range, 7 to 175). There were no floor or ceiling effects. The HANA met the standards for validity with internal consistency reliability (Cronbach alpha =.92, eigenvalue for the single factor = 4.8, and test-retest reliability = 0.77). External validity showed a high correlation between HANA and Headache Disability Inventory total scores (0.73, P<.0001), and high correlations with disease and treatment characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: These data demonstrate the psychometric properties of the HANA. The brief questionnaire may be a useful screening tool to evaluate the impact of migraine on individuals. The two-dimensional approach to patient-reported quality of life allows individuals to weight the impact of both frequency and bothersomeness of chronic migraines on multiple aspects of daily life.

Activities of Daily Living↗

Subject attrition in prevention research.

Subject attrition threatens the internal validity of substance abuse prevention studies because differences in the rate of attrition and the substance use behavior of remaining subjects in the different conditions could account for any differences found in substance use rates. Attrition threatens the external validity of prevention studies because, to the extent that study dropouts are different from remaining subjects, the results of the study may not be generalizable to study dropouts. Analysis of these threats to the validity of prevention studies should be routinely conducted. However, studies of alcohol and drug abuse prevention have generally failed to report or analyze subject attrition. Smoking prevention studies have more frequently reported attrition, and they have recently begun to analyze the degree to which attrition may affect the internal and external validity of the study. Evidence thus far suggests that differences in attrition across conditions do occur occasionally. The evidence is substantial that study dropouts are systematically more likely to smoke, to use other substances, and to score highly on other risk-taking measures.

Alcoholism↗

Validation of the inflammatory bowel disease questionnaire in Swedish patients with ulcerative colitis.

BACKGROUND: The Inflammatory Bowel Disease Questionnaire (IBDQ) is a disease-specific health-related quality of life (HRQOL) questionnaire including four dimensions and a sum score. The aim of this study was to assess the internal and external validity, reliability, and sensitivity of a Swedish version of the IBDQ. METHODS: Three hundred consecutive patients with ulcerative colitis completed the IBDQ and three other health-related quality of life questionnaires (the Rating Form of IBD Patient Concerns (RFIPC), the Short Form-36 (SF-36) and the Psychological General Well-Being (PGWB) index). Disease activity was evaluated using a 1-week symptom diary, blood tests and rigid sigmoidoscopy. One hundred and fourteen patients filled in the questionnaire a second time, of whom 75 had been in stable remission for over 6 months and 39 had a significant clinical change in disease activity. RESULTS: Factor analysis of the 32 IBDQ items did not support the four dimensional scores. The dimensional scores had sufficient convergent validity, but low discriminative validity and homogeneity. The homogeneity was also low for the sum score. The inter-dimensional correlations were high. The concurrent validity was supported by correlations between the dimensional scores and other measures of disease activity and HRQOL. Patients in relapse scored significantly less on the sum score and the four dimensions compared to patients in remission. The test-retest correlations for the dimensional scores were 0.40-0.76. Patients with a change in disease activity during the 6-month follow-up period had a significant change in IBDQ scores not found in those who remained in remission. CONCLUSIONS: The Swedish version of the IBDQ had external validity and was shown to be a reliable and sensitive measure of HRQOL in ulcerative colitis, though there are some concerns regarding the internal validity. The use of a sum score was not supported and the questionnaire may benefit from a redivision of items into dimensions with better homogeneity and discriminative validity.

Colitis, Ulcerative↗

Research progress and application prospects of multi-omics integration strategies in precision risk stratification of type 1 diabetes mellitus.

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is a chronic metabolic disease mediated by autoimmunity. Its pathogenesis involves complex interactions between genetic susceptibility and environmental factors. Conventional T1D risk stratification primarily relies on genetic markers, islet autoantibodies, and glycemic indicators. Although these biomarkers remain indispensable in current clinical practice, they are often insufficient when used alone to accurately identify ultra-early high-risk individuals, predict disease progression rates, or support individualized preventive strategies. Consequently, more comprehensive molecular approaches are needed to improve precision risk stratification. In recent years, the rapid development of multi-omics technologies has provided new strategies for precise risk stratification of T1D. This narrative review critically evaluates how multi-omics integration strategies can improve precision risk stratification throughout the T1D disease continuum by integrating complementary molecular information from genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics, epigenomics, and the microbiome. Particular emphasis is placed on stage-specific biomarker discovery, multi-omics data integration frameworks, artificial intelligence-assisted prediction models, biomarker validation, and the opportunities and challenges associated with clinical translation. Current evidence suggests that integrated multi-omics approaches have the potential to improve risk prediction accuracy, distinguish heterogeneous disease trajectories, identify individuals at imminent risk of progression, and provide biologically informed targets for precision intervention. However, important challenges remain, including data harmonization, external validation, model interpretability, cost-effectiveness, and integration into routine clinical screening programs. Future research should prioritize prospective multicenter cohorts, standardized analytical pipelines, externally validated prediction models, and clinically interpretable multi-omics frameworks to facilitate the translation of precision risk stratification into routine T1D prevention and management.

Humans↗

Cyclophosphamide versus methylprednisolone for the treatment of neuropsychiatric involvement in systemic lupus erythematosus.

BACKGROUND: Neuropsychiatric involvement in systemic lupus erythematosus is complex and several clinical presentations are related to this disease such as: convulsions, chronic headache, transverse myelitis, vascular brain disease, psychosis and neural cognitive dysfunction. OBJECTIVES: To assess the efficacy and safety of cyclophosphamide and methylprednisolone in the treatment of neuropsychiatric manifestations of systemic lupus erythematosus on mortality and side effects. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched EMBASE, LILACS, Cochrane Controlled Trials Register and MEDLINE up to and including December 1999, additional articles were sought through handsearching in relevant journals, using the search strategy described in the Cochrane Handbook [Dickersin 1994]. There were no language restrictions. SELECTION CRITERIA: All randomized controlled trials which compared cyclophosphamide to methylprednisolone were to be included. Patients of any age and gender were included if they fulfilled the criterion of the American Rheumatology Association for the diagnosis of systemic lupus erythematosus and presented with any one of the following neuropsychiatric events; convulsions, organic brain syndrome; cranial neuropathy. Outcome measures included the following: a) Overall mortality (primary event); b) Motor and psychiatric deficit (primary event); c) Clinical improvement (secondary event). DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: The analysis planned was to do the following: Data would be independently extracted by the two reviewers and cross-checked. The methodological quality of each trial would be assessed by the same two reviewers. Details of the randomisation (generation and concealment), blinding, and the number of patients lost on follow-up would be recorded. The results of each RCT would be summarised on an intention-to-treat basis in 2 x 2 tables for each outcome. External validity would be defined by characteristics of the participants, the interventions and the outcomes. If appropriate, RCTs would be stratified based on control group and category of disease in accordance to the clinical homogeneity (external validity). The results obtained from these different methods are very similar, and therefore, only the results from the Risk Difference method, with the corresponding 95% confidence interval would be presented in this review. The fixed effects model would be used if there was no significant statistical heterogeneity. MAIN RESULTS: We found no randomised controlled trials comparing cyclophosphamide versus methylprednisolone for the treatment of neuropsychiatric involvement in the systemic lupus erythematosus. REVIEWER'S CONCLUSIONS: Cyclophosphamide regimen treatment is a form of care in neuropsychiatric involvement in systemic lupus erythematosus with no evidence to prove better effectiveness and safety when compared with methylprednisolone. This systematic review found no randomised controlled trials and its findings must be interpreted as 'no evidence of effect' and not as 'evidence of no effect'.

Antirheumatic Agents↗

Ensemble DNA methylation clock demonstrates Immune-metabolic aging signatures associated with mortality.

Aging is a multifactorial process that is best described in terms of the progressive acquisition of multiple layers of phenotypic changes, such as epigenetic modifications, inflammation, and metabolic dysregulation. DNA methylation clocks have been extensively used to construct epigenetic clocks based on the DNAm profiles that can be used to estimate biological age and predict age-associated outcomes. Nevertheless, the vast majority of clocks constructed so far have been based on linear models, which are unlikely to fully account for the heterogeneity and non-linearity of survival-related DNAm signatures. In this work, we constructed a heterogeneous stacked ensemble survival model based on DNAm data obtained from the Framingham Heart Study. We first identified 190 CpG loci using elastic net Cox regression and subsequently constructed a survival prediction model based on the fusion of five complementary survival models by means of a neural network meta-learner. The prediction power of the survival model was evaluated in an external validation cohort, where we observed strong performance for predicting all-cause mortality that significantly exceeded PhenoAge and was statistically comparable to GrimAge. These performance estimates were derived in cohorts of European ancestry and externally validated in postmenopausal women aged 50-79 years, and should therefore be interpreted as applicable only to demographically similar populations.

Humans↗

Randomized controlled trials in psychiatry. Part II: their relationship to clinical practice.

OBJECTIVE: To discuss the extent to which the results of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in psychiatry can be generalized to clinical practice. METHOD: Threats to internal and external validity in psychiatric RCTs are reviewed. RESULTS: Threats to internal validity increase the possibility of bias. Psychiatric RCTs have problems with small samples, arbitrary definitions of caseness, disparate definitions of outcome and high spontaneous recovery rates. Particular issues arise in psychotherapy RCTs. Threats to external validity reduce the extent to which the results of a RCT produce a correct basis for generalization to other circumstances. These include high rates of comorbidity and sub syndromal pathology in normal clinical practice, manual-based treatment protocols and varying definitions of successful treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Randomized controlled trials remain the most robust design to investigate the effectiveness of treatments. They should be applied to important clinical questions; and carried out, as far as possible, with typical patients in the clinical conditions in which the treatment is likely to be used.

Evidence-Based Medicine↗

The reliability of upper limb anthropometry in older Chinese people.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the validity of the Durnin-Womersley equations and to derive our local predictive equations for body fat from upper limb skinfold thicknesses in older Chinese people in Hong Kong. To evaluate the validity of mid-arm circumference and corrected arm muscle area in predicting lean tissue mass in the same population. DESIGN: Comparison of fat percentages predicted by Durnin-Womersley (D-W) equations with those estimated by Dual energy X ray absorptiometry (DXA). Predictive equations derived from regression between upper limb skinfold thicknesses and fat percentages estimated by DXA were similarly evaluated in internal and external validation groups. Mid-arm circumference (MAC) and corrected arm muscle area (CAMA) were correlated with the limb lean tissue mass, body lean tissue mass and fat percentage. SUBJECTS: 354 female and 263 male, apparently well, community dwelling subjects, aged 69-82 y; of which 40 subjects of each sex were randomly selected from the study population for internal validation of the local predictive equations; 60 female and 33 male hospital medical outpatients, aged 61-87 y, were recruited for external validation. MEASUREMENTS: Triceps and biceps skinfold thicknesses, mid-arm circumference, body mass index, fat percentages, limb and whole body lean tissue masses estimated by Hologic QDR-2000 bone densitometer. RESULTS: Fat percentages calculated by D-W equations were significantly different from those estimated by DXA (average difference -2.4 (s.d. 4.8)% and +2.1 (5.2)% in females and males respectively). The corresponding differences for our local predictive equations were not significant (-0.9 (4.7)% and -0.5 (5.0)% in females and males respectively). There was a trend of under-estimation of body fat with increasing fatness. In the hospital medical outpatients, there was a significant difference between fat percentages predicted by our equation and those by DXA in female (-2.9(5.3)%), but not in male (+0.3(4.3)%) subjects. In males, MAC correlated with limb and body lean tissue masses as well as with fat percentage (r = 0.60, 0.68, 0.65 respectively). CAMA correlated similarly well with lean tissue masses but was more independent of fat percentage (r = 0.61, 0.65, 0.44 respectively). In females, both MAC and CAMA correlated poorly with limb and body lean tissue masses. Moreover, MAC correlated well with fat percentage (r = 0.80). CONCLUSION: Upper limb skinfold thicknesses measurement is a valid means of predicting body fat in older Chinese people. Local predictive equations were more reliable that D-W equations. They were, however, subject to errors at the extreme ends of body fatness and in the presence of disease. In older females, MAC and CAMA were not reliable in predicting lean tissue mass, but MAC could be used to predict fat percentages. In older males, CAMA was more reliable than MAC in predicting lean tissue mass.

Absorptiometry, Photon↗

Detection of depressive symptomatology in elderly people: a short version of the CES-D scale.

This study aims to test a short form of the Center for Epidemiological Studies--Depression Scale (CES-D) which can be a useful screening tool for depressive symptomatology in epidemiological studies of elderly patients. The study was conducted on 2792 subjects from the PAQUID (Personnes Agées QUID?) cohort, an epidemiological survey of community dwellers living in South-West France. CES-D items with high sensitivity and good specificity were selected for the short form, then the best cut-off scores were determined with Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves. The external validity of the 5-item scale was then assessed against the full scale at different PAQUID follow-ups. Sensitivity was 99% and specificity 81% for detecting depressive symptomatology when compared to the 20-item scale. The external validity on the different follow-ups was good, yielding a sensitivity varying from 95 to 100%, and a specificity from 83 to 89%. In conclusion, the 5-item CES-D is a simple, rapid and reliable tool which could be useful for screening depressive symptoms in epidemiological studies of the elderly.

Aged↗

Five-factor model of schizophrenic psychopathology: how valid is it?

Aim of the study was to examine the consistency of the five-factor model of schizophrenic symptoms, assess its validity and evaluate its dimensional factor structure using confirmatory factor (CFA) analysis. A sample of 258 randomly assigned DSM-III R patients with schizophrenic disorders were studied by means of the structured clinical interview for the Greek validated Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) and were rated on its 30 items. Patients' scores were subjected to principal component analysis (PCA) with varimax rotation. Internal consistency for each of the components was determined by the use of Cronbach's alpha. External validity of the model derived was investigated by searching for possible relationships between the components and sociodemographic characteristics with the aid of canonical correlation analysis. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was also performed. Using the scree plot criterion PCA revealed a five-factor model. These factors were interpreted as representing--in a decreasing order of relative importance--the following dimensions of schizophrenic psychopathology: negative, excitement, depression, positive and cognitive impairment. The model was comparable with six previous factor analytic studies. Internal consistency was quite satisfactory whereas external validity was found to be not so powerful. CFA did not show that the proposed model yields an adequate factor structure.

Adult↗

Catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia mediated by ryanodine receptor 2: a validated risk stratification.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia (CPVT) are at risk for potentially life-threatening arrhythmic events (AEs) even while treated with &#x3b2;-blockers. The aim was to develop a model for individualized prediction of AEs in patients with RYR2-mediated CPVT on &#x3b2;-blocker monotherapy. METHODS: The derivation and independent validation cohorts included 743 and 129 patients, respectively. AEs were defined as arrhythmic syncope, appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator shock, sudden cardiac arrest (SCA), and sudden cardiac death. Near-fatal or fatal AEs (nf/fAEs) included all AEs except for arrhythmic syncope. Prediction models using Cox regression were developed and internally and externally validated. RESULTS: A total of 102 (13.7%) patients in the derivation cohort and 24 (18.6%) patients in the validation cohort experienced &#x2265;1 AE over a median follow-up of 5.1 [interquartile range (IQR), 7.7] and 2.4 (IQR, 4.4) years, respectively. Predictors of AE were arrhythmic syncope or SCA prior to diagnosis and age at &#x3b2;-blocker initiation. In the derivation and validation cohorts, the optimism-corrected C-indices of the models for AE were 0.67 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.62-0.72] and 0.59 (95% CI 0.48-0.71), respectively. For nf/fAEs, ventricular arrhythmia severity before &#x3b2;-blocker initiation was a fourth independent predictor, and C-indices of the models in the derivation and validation cohorts were 0.74 (95% CI 0.68-0.80) and 0.60 (95% CI 0.47-0.72), respectively. In the derivation cohort, calibration slopes were 1.00 (95% CI 0.59-1.41) for AE and 1.00 (95% CI 0.69-1.32) for nf/fAE. CONCLUSIONS: These externally validated risk prediction models using clinical parameters accurately distinguished CPVT patients on &#x3b2;-blocker monotherapy at low and high risk for future AEs while treated with &#x3b2;-blockers. These models provide guidance for implementation of clinical management therapies to prevent AEs in patients with CPVT.

Humans↗