Ensemble DNA methylation clock demonstrates Immune-metabolic aging signatures associated with mortality.

Abstract

Aging is a multifactorial process that is best described in terms of the progressive acquisition of multiple layers of phenotypic changes, such as epigenetic modifications, inflammation, and metabolic dysregulation. DNA methylation clocks have been extensively used to construct epigenetic clocks based on the DNAm profiles that can be used to estimate biological age and predict age-associated outcomes. Nevertheless, the vast majority of clocks constructed so far have been based on linear models, which are unlikely to fully account for the heterogeneity and non-linearity of survival-related DNAm signatures. In this work, we constructed a heterogeneous stacked ensemble survival model based on DNAm data obtained from the Framingham Heart Study. We first identified 190 CpG loci using elastic net Cox regression and subsequently constructed a survival prediction model based on the fusion of five complementary survival models by means of a neural network meta-learner. The prediction power of the survival model was evaluated in an external validation cohort, where we observed strong performance for predicting all-cause mortality that significantly exceeded PhenoAge and was statistically comparable to GrimAge. These performance estimates were derived in cohorts of European ancestry and externally validated in postmenopausal women aged 50-79 years, and should therefore be interpreted as applicable only to demographically similar populations.