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Predicting dangerousness.

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M Saeed. 1996. Predicting dangerousness.. https://doi.org/10.1176/ps.47.4.430

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Risk and dangerousness.

The task of improving the ability of clinicians to predict which of their patients will be violent has come to be seen as one of establishing the relative merits of actuarial and clinical prediction. The meaning of these terms is unclear. 'Clinical' is usually defined by exclusion, that is, as something other than actuarial. The term 'actuarial' is often used to refer to the techniques of risk prediction in financial services. In the psychiatric and psychological literature relating to the assessment of dangerousness, three further meanings have emerged. That whereby actuarial refers to any mathematical means of combining information is the most widely accepted. Whichever definition is employed, the conclusion of most reviews has been that the future is actuarial. It is argued here that, while mathematical approaches have been successful in showing that risk factors for violence in the general population apply also to the mentally disordered, important questions remain unanswered. Mathematical methods address only one form of probability, that which arises from chance. A development of another form of probability, that which arises from causes, offers the prospect of improved risk assessment in psychiatry. It also offers a definition of clinical prediction that is not based on exclusion.

Dangerous Behavior

Constructing mental illness as dangerous: a pilot study.

OBJECTIVE: There is a dearth of studies examining how dangerousness is constructed in media depictions of mentally ill individuals who are frequently portrayed as acting violently. The aim of the present study was to identify the contribution of diverse technical, semiotic and discursive resources utilised in portraying a character with a mental illness in a prime-time drama as dangerous. METHOD: Discourse analytic techniques, involving systematic, repeated, critical viewings, were applied to a single program drawn from a sample of prime-time television drama episodes touching on mental illness. RESULTS: Nine devices (appearance, music and sound effects, lighting, language, intercutting, jump-cutting, point of view shots, horror conventions and intertextuality) were identified as contributing to the signified dangerousness of person receiving care in the community for a mental illness. CONCLUSIONS: These techniques combine in signifying mental illness and a person suffering from it as dangerous. The findings suggest that mental health professionals working to reduce the stigma of mental illness need to have a reasonably sophisticated understanding of the practices and priorities of television production if they are to collaborate effectively with producers to create dramas that convey more human and sympathetic understandings of mental illness or to combat the negative effects of such portrayals.

Dangerous Behavior