PubMed · 8199949
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D D Macdonald. 1994-06-01. Support for future physicians.. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/8199949/
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Priority criteria developed during a national project were used to conduct an audit of all 662 patients on waiting lists for coronary artery bypass surgery in New Zealand during spring 1996. Based on the observed distribution of priority scores, the cost of providing surgery to all patients down to various levels of priority was estimated. Descriptions incorporating life expectancy and quality of life implications of surgery were developed of the kinds of patients who would or would not receive surgery at each of several possible funding levels. Cardiologists and cardiac surgeons agreed that a threshold of 25 points was a reasonable clinical goal but to work with a threshold of 35, which can be sustained with current levels of funding. All agree that the gap between these clinically preferred and currently afforded thresholds is a subject for wider societal dialogue and decision. The ability to measure the size of the gap between clinical desirability and financial sustainability provides a new transparency to the problem of healthcare resource allocation.
Four potential pressures are likely to determine whether the NHS will be able to cope in future: the change in population structure, changes in level of morbidity, introduction of new technologies, and increasing expectations of patients and NHS providers. New technology and changes in expectations are likely to have the biggest effect and are also the most difficult to quantify. Nevertheless, these pressures are to some extent amenable to control. If the growth in funding continues as it has in the past there is no convincing evidence that the NHS will not continue to cope.
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