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Simulating the effects of an alcohol minimum unit price policy on distilled spirits sales in 28 states of the USA.

Doris G Gammon·Jennifer Gaber·Marissa B Esser·William Dowd·Gregory Leung·Katherine J Karriker-Jaffe·James Nonnemaker
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Abstract

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Excessive alcohol use is a leading preventable chronic disease risk factor. Alcohol minimum unit pricing (MUP) policies are not used in the United States despite evidence of associations with reduced drinking and alcohol-related harms. To inform potential population-level chronic disease prevention strategies, we estimated effects of various hypothetical MUPs on alcohol sales. METHOD: Simulation based on observational time-series data. We used weekly off-premises product-specific alcohol retail sales and prices in 28 states of the United States for November 2022-November 2023 from NielsenIQ to estimate the own-price elasticity of spirits and cross-price elasticities of wine, beer and ready-to-drinks with respect to spirits. Using estimated elasticities, we simulated changes in total alcohol sales associated with hypothetical spirits MUPs ranging from $0.10 to $1.10 per standard drink (0.6 fluid ounces of alcohol). RESULTS: A hypothetical MUP of $0.80 per standard drink on spirits yielded the largest estimated decrease in alcohol sales (-1.7%) and would affect 5374 of 26 249 spirits products. To reach the $0.80 MUP, the sales-weighted average price increase among affected products was $0.24 per drink. CONCLUSIONS: Minimum unit pricing policies on distilled spirits in the United States could shift purchasing behavior and help reduce alcohol-related harms.

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alcohol policyalcohol saleschronic disease preventioncommercial determinants of healthminimum unit price policiesprice elasticity of demandJournal Article

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Doris G Gammon, Jennifer Gaber, Marissa B Esser, William Dowd, Gregory Leung, Katherine J Karriker-Jaffe, James Nonnemaker. 2026-09-01. Simulating the effects of an alcohol minimum unit price policy on distilled spirits sales in 28 states of the USA.. https://doi.org/10.1111/add.70570

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