From prediction to mechanism: Explainable AI uncovers plasma and CSF proteomic signatures of Alzheimer's disease.

Abstract

Alzheimer's disease (AD) plasma and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) proteomics can distinguish AD from cognitively normal controls, but the generalizability of machine learning performance and the recurrence of biological signals across datasets require cautious interpretation. We developed an explainable artificial intelligence framework spanning two fluids and four ADNI proteomic datasets, covering 2082 modality specific samples, all analysed internally within ADNI. Phase 1 analysed plasma using a 119 analyte NULISA and targeted UPENN panel (n&#xa0;=&#xa0;727; 216&#xa0;CE, 511 controls). Phase 2 extended the analysis to CSF using SOMAscan7k, TMT-MS and targeted SET2, with Elecsys A&#x3b2;42, A&#x3b2;40, total tau and p-tau181 as anchor biomarkers. Only SOMAscan was subject-independent relative to Phase 1 plasma; TMT-MS and SET2 overlapped with Phase 1 for 96.0% and 97.7% of subjects and therefore are not independent replication cohorts. Under subject-level splits with fold internal preprocessing, we compared Elastic Net, Explainable Boosting Machines and gradient boosted trees with SHAP-based explanations. Among the candidate pipelines, we selected the pipeline with the highest held-out test ROC AUC for each platform; the selected values were 0.927 in plasma and 0.954-0.973 across the three CSF datasets. Because the same held out test performance was used for pipeline selection and headline reporting, these are optimistically selected single-holdout estimates, not unbiased estimates of generalizable or clinical performance. Explanations identified five recurring biological axes within ADNI: cholinergic (ACHE), tau/14-3-3 (YWHAG, YWHAZ, YWHAB, YWHAE), neuro-axonal (NEFL, NEFH), microglial/complement (CHIT1, SMOC1, CHI3L1, C7, CFH) and synaptic (NPTXR, NPTX2, DLG4, SYT5, VSNL1, ELAVL2). CSF analyses showed synaptic vesicle-cycle enrichment (q&#xa0;=&#xa0;2&#xa0;&#xd7;&#xa0;10-6), and CSF YWHAG correlated strongly with total tau (&#x3c1;&#xa0;=&#xa0;0.87). Cross-fluid directional concordance was modest overall (54-57%) but increased to 73-80% among mapped analyte/protein rows reaching q&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.05 in CSF. These findings provide hypothesis-generating, internally supported evidence within ADNI. Independent external cohorts with locked pipelines are required to evaluate generalizable performance and biological reproducibility; the overlapping TMT-MS and SET2 analyses should not be interpreted as independent replication.