Intracellular interactions shape antiviral resistance outcomes in poliovirus via eco-evolutionary feedback.

Abstract

Antiviral resistance evolution poses a major obstacle for controlling viral infections. A promising strategy is to target shared viral proteins that allow drug susceptible viruses to sensitize resistant ones during cellular coinfection, muting selection for resistance. Pocapavir, a poliovirus capsid inhibitor, employs this sociovirological strategy. While susceptible viruses significantly suppressed resistance in the presence of pocapavir in cell culture, a pocapavir clinical trial observed widespread resistance evolution and limited improvements to clearance times. To reconcile these findings, we present an intra-host eco-evolutionary model of poliovirus in the presence of pocapavir, which reproduces both the potent interference observed in vitro and the resistance emergence seen in patients. In the short term, our model predicts that a high density of susceptible viruses sensitizes resistant ones to pocapavir, mirroring cell culture results. However, over multiple replication cycles, pocapavir's high potency collapses viral density, which reduces coinfection and allows resistance to evolve as observed in the clinical trial. Since coinfection is essential to suppress resistance, enabling greater survival of susceptible viruses could offer therapeutic advantages. Counterintuitively, we demonstrate that this can be achieved by lessening antiviral potency, which can limit resistance evolution while also maintaining a low viral load. These findings suggest that antivirals that rely on viral intracellular interaction must balance immediate neutralization with the preservation of future coinfection, yielding more sustained inhibition. Explicitly considering the eco-evolutionary feedback encompassing viral density, shared phenotypes and absolute fitness not only provides new insights into designing effective therapies but also illuminates viral evolutionary dynamics more broadly.