AIDS causation.

Back-calculation models, developed to reconstruct the past trend of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and to project future acquired immunodeficiency syndrome incidence (AIDS), are usually and unrealistically based on the assumption that the observed AIDS counts are independently distributed according to a Poisson process. In contrast, we argue that a multinomial framework is more suitable to this situation, leading to a natural covariance structure. The ill-conditioned nature of the problem is solved by modelling the HIV parameters according to a cubic spline function to reduce the dimensionality of the parameter space and obtain smoother parameter estimates. We applied a regression spline technique which yields to a computationally stable basis incorporating the incubation period in the new design matrix. We directly incorporate the reporting delay distribution in the AIDS incidence data, leading to a more complex formulation of the variance and covariance model that is adapted to the iteratively reweighted least square (IRLS) algorithm. In this case we obtain more accurate estimates of the standard error of the HIV incidence, especially in the most recent time. Our model, which uses a cubic spline reparameterization based on a multinomial probability distribution, is applied to the AIDS epidemic data in Italy.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

PubMed2001

Epidemiology and the emergence of human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome.

Although acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) was first described in the USA in 1981, there is evidence that individual cases occurred considerably earlier in Central Africa, and serological and virological data show human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) was present in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) as far back as 1959. It is likely that HIV-1 infection in humans was established from cross-species transmission of simian immunodeficiency virus of chimpanzees, but the circumstances surrounding this zoonotic transfer are uncertain. This presentation will review how causality is established in epidemiology, and review the evidence (a putative ecological association) surrounding the hypothesis that early HIV-1 infections were associated with trials of oral polio vaccine (OPV) in the DRC. From an epidemiological standpoint, the OPV hypothesis is not supported by data and the ecological association proposed between OPV use and early HIV/AIDS cases is unconvincing. It is likely that Africa will continue to dominate global HIV and AIDS epidemiology in the near to medium-term future, and that the epidemic will evolve over many decades unless a preventive vaccine becomes widely available.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗