PubMed · 1393921
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J Hardie. 1992-10-15. Universal precautions not justified.. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/1393921/
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BACKGROUND: Estimating the time since HIV infection (TSI) at population level is essential for tracking changes in the global HIV epidemic. Most methods for determining TSI give a binary classification of infections as recent or non-recent within a window of several months, and cannot assess the cumulative impact of an intervention. RESULTS: We developed a Random Forest Regression model, HIV-phyloTSI, which combines measures of within-host diversity and divergence to generate continuous TSI estimates directly from viral deep-sequencing data, with no need for additional variables. HIV-phyloTSI provides a continuous measure of TSI up to 9 years, with a mean absolute error of less than 12 months overall and less than 5 months for infections with a TSI of up to a year. It performs equally well for all major HIV subtypes based on data from African and European cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate how HIV-phyloTSI can be used for incidence estimates on a population level.
We examined weekly changes in viral levels in seven untreated infants infected with HIV at birth. Viral levels spiked immediately but reverted quickly to plateau levels typical of infant HIV infection within 2 weeks of first detected viraemia. We speculated that the depletion of naive, susceptible cells is responsible for the rapid decrease in spike levels and that the rapid replacement of lymphocytes in infants causes the high plateau viral levels (10(5) copies/ml) to be sustained.
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