Conditionals and conditional probability.

Jonathan S t B T Evans; Simon J Handley; David E Over

doi:10.1037/0278-7393.29.2.321

Home/Archive/PubMed

PubMed · 12696819

Conditionals and conditional probability.

Jonathan S t B T Evans·Simon J Handley·David E Over

View original source ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

The authors report 3 experiments in which participants were invited to judge the probability of statements of the form if p then q given frequency information about the cases pq, p not q, not pq, and not p not q (where not = not). Three hypotheses were compared: (a) that people equate the probability with that of the material conditional, 1 - P(p not q); (b) that people assign the conditional probability, P(q/p); and (c) that people assign the conjunctive probability P(pq). The experimental evidence allowed rejection of the 1st hypothesis but provided some support for the 2nd and 3rd hypotheses. Individual difference analyses showed that half of the participants used conditional probability and that most of the remaining participants used conjunctive probability as the basis of their judgments.

Explore related subjects

Color Perception Discrimination Learning Humans Logic Pattern Recognition, Visual Probability Learning Problem Solving Reading Semantics Set, Psychology Journal Article Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeX RIS

Jonathan S t B T Evans, Simon J Handley, David E Over. 2003. Conditionals and conditional probability.. https://doi.org/10.1037/0278-7393.29.2.321

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related citations

PubMed2003

A quantitative model for transforming reflectance spectra into the Munsell color space using cone sensitivity functions and opponent process weights.

This article presents a computational model of the process through which the human visual system transforms reflectance spectra into perceptions of color. Using physical reflectance spectra data and standard human cone sensitivity functions we describe the transformations necessary for predicting the location of colors in the Munsell color space. These transformations include quantitative estimates of the opponent process weights needed to transform cone activations into Munsell color space coordinates. Using these opponent process weights, the Munsell position of specific colors can be predicted from their physical spectra with a mean correlation of 0.989.

Color Perception↗

PubMed2003

Display-control arrangement correspondence and logical recoding in the Hedge and Marsh reversal of the Simon effect.

When left and right keypresses are made to stimuli in left and right locations, and stimulus location is irrelevant to the task, responses are typically faster when stimulus location corresponds with response location than when it does not (the Simon effect). This effect reverses when the relevant stimulus-response mapping is incompatible, with responses being slower when stimulus and response locations correspond (the Hedge and Marsh reversal). Simon et al. (Acta Psychol. 47 (1981) 63) reported an exception to the Hedge and Marsh reversal for a situation in which the relevant stimulus dimension was the color of a centered visual stimulus and the irrelevant location information was left or right tone location. In contrast, similar experiments have found a reversal of the Simon effect for tone location when relevant visual locations were mapped incompatibly to responses. We conducted four experiments to investigate this discrepancy. Both results were replicated. With an incompatible mapping, irrelevant tone location showed a small reverse Simon effect when the relevant visual dimension was physical location but not when the color of a centered stimulus or the direction in which an arrow pointed conveyed the visual location information. The reversal occurred in a more standard Hedge and Marsh task in which the irrelevant dimension was location of the colored stimulus, but only when the response keys were visibly labeled. Several of the results suggest that display-control arrangement correspondence is the primary cause of the Hedge and Marsh reversal, with logical recoding playing only a secondary role.

Color Perception↗

PubMed2003

Short-wavelength acuity: optical factors affecting detection and resolution of blue-yellow sinusoidal gratings in foveal and peripheral vision.

Previous studies have indicated that peripheral achromatic grating resolution is limited by the sampling density of the neural array (sampling limited), and largely unaffected by large amounts of optical defocus and significant changes in luminance. Under certain conditions, peripheral short-wavelength sensitive (SWS) grating acuity is also sampling limited. We wished to determine how the sampling-limited nature of SWS-driven grating resolution was affected by changing optical defocus and stimulus luminance. Using SWS-cone isolation techniques, detection and resolution acuity were measured for sinusoidal gratings under varying levels of stimulus mean luminance and optical defocus in the fovea and at 20 degrees eccentricity. From 1.4 down to 0.3 cd/m(2) peripheral detection acuity was superior to resolution acuity, accompanied by observations of aliasing: there was little change in resolution performance throughout this range. For defocus up to 3-4 dioptres, peripheral detection acuity was superior to resolution but fell steadily: resolution performance remained flat throughout the same range. Unlike achromatic acuity, foveal resolution performance displayed some robustness to defocus but to a lesser degree than the periphery. Peripheral SWS-driven resolution remains sampling limited for large changes in stimulus luminance and optical defocus, and should thus be useful as a clinical test of SWS-driven ganglion cell density.

Color Perception↗