PubMed · 11627455
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A Réthly. 1973. [Not Available].. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11627455/
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The authors' objective in this study was to determine geographic variations in the incidence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), specifically Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis, in the Canadian province of Manitoba and its association with the sociodemographic, geographic, and disease-related characteristics of the study population. Using the University of Manitoba IBD Epidemiology Database, the authors applied spatial and ecologic techniques to visualize, explore, and model the incidence of Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis for the period 1990-2001. The study demonstrated marked, statistically significant geographic variability in rates of both Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis associated with the characteristics of the study population. Incidences of Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis were observed to be highest among non-Aboriginal persons, persons of high socioeconomic status, persons with the lowest rates of enteric infection, and persons with the highest rates of multiple sclerosis. The observation of an inverse association between IBD incidence and rates of reportable enteric infection at the population level is consistent with the "hygiene hypothesis," which suggests that early exposure to enteric agents affords protection against eventual development of IBD. The positive association between IBD incidence rates and multiple sclerosis suggests that these two chronic, immunologically mediated diseases may have a common environmental etiology. This study underscores the importance of environment in IBD causation.
Six phenological series were available for 'Golden Delicious' apple blooming at six sites in Trentino, an alpine fruit-growing region. Several models were tested to predict flowering dates, all involving a "chilling and forcing" approach. In many cases, application of the models to different climatic conditions results in low accuracy of prediction of flowering date. The aim of this work is to develop a model with more general validity, starting from the six available series, and to test it against five other phenological series outside the original area of model development. A modified version of the "Utah" model was the approach that performed best. In fact, an algorithm using "chill units" for rest completion and a thermal sum for growing-degree-hours (GDH), whose efficiency changes over time depending on the fraction of forcing attained, yielded a very good prediction of flowering. Results were good even if hourly temperatures were reconstructed from daily minimum and maximum values. Errors resulting from prediction of flowering data were relatively small, and root mean square errors were in the range of 1-6 days, being <2 days for the longest phenological series. In the most general form of the model, the summation of GDH required for flowering is not a fixed value, but a function of topoclimatic variables for a particular site: slope, aspect and spring mean temperature. This approach allows extension of application of the model to sites with different climatic features outside the test area.
A recent assessment by the intergovernmental panel on climate change concluded that the Earth's climate would be 2-6 degrees C warmer than in the pre-industrial era by the end of the twenty-first century, due to human-induced increases in greenhouse gases. In the absence of other changes, this would lead to the warmest period on Earth for at least the last 1000 years, and probably the last 100,000 years. The large-scale warming is expected to be accompanied by increased frequency and/or intensity of extreme events, such as heatwaves, heavy rainfall, storms and coastal flooding. There are also several possibilities that this large change could initiate nonlinear climate responses which lead to even more extreme and rapid (on the time-scale of decades) climate change, including the collapse of the ocean 'conveyor belt' circulation, the collapse of major ice sheets or the release of large amounts of methane in high latitudes leading to further global warming. Although these catastrophic events are much more speculative than the direct warming due to increased greenhouse gases, their potential impacts are great and therefore should be included in any risk assessment of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change.