Pancreatic fat and the risk of future dysglycemia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
CONTEXT: Pancreatic fat has emerged as a metabolically relevant ectopic fat depot, but its longitudinal association with future dysglycemic outcomes remains incompletely defined. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to evaluate the longitudinal association of pancreatic fat with incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) and glycemic progression, with exploratory narrative synthesis of evidence in lean populations. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library were searched from inception to March 1, 2026. STUDY SELECTION: Longitudinal observational studies assessing pancreatic fat at baseline and reporting subsequent incident T2D, glycemic progression, or both were included. DATA EXTRACTION: Two reviewers independently screened studies and extracted data. Methodological quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. DATA SYNTHESIS: Ten studies were included. In the primary binary meta-analysis (5 studies), higher pancreatic fat burden was associated with incident T2D (pooled effect estimate, 2.56; 95% CI, 1.27-5.14; I2 = 93.3%). Exclusion of 1 influential ultrasound-based study attenuated heterogeneity while preserving the association (pooled effect estimate, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.23-1.73; I2 = 10.2%). A separate continuous analysis (3 studies) also supported an association with incident T2D (1.17; 95% CI, 1.04-1.32; I2 = 79.2%), although exposure scales were not directly comparable. Pancreatic fat was also associated with glycemic progression (2 studies; 1.96; 95% CI, 1.10-3.48; I2 = 73.2%). Exploratory lean-population evidence was limited to 2 analytical contexts, synthesized narratively, and directionally consistent with the overall findings. CONCLUSION: Pancreatic fat was associated with adverse future glycemic outcomes across multiple analytical contexts. These findings support pancreatic fat as a potentially meaningful imaging-derived marker of future dysglycemia, while suggesting that heterogeneity is partly explained by differences in exposure ascertainment.