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Biomedical subjects

W Winkelstein

Publications and source records attributed to W Winkelstein.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

A new perspective on John Snow's communicable disease theory.

When John Snow undertook the studies of the cholera epidemic of 1854 in London, he was testing his theory of communicable disease, which had been enunciated in an oration delivered at the 80th anniversary of the Medical Society of London. Snow had been elected orator of the year for 1853 and, according to his biographer, had spent the better part of a year in preparation. The oration was titled, "On Continuous Molecular Changes, More Particularly in Their Relation to Epidemic Diseases." Although the text of this oration is readily available in the 1936 Commonwealth Fund facsimile reprint of Snow's more famous cholera studies, few modern epidemiologists are familiar with the work. In it, Snow lays out a theory which includes recognition that for each communicable disease there is a distinct and specific cause, that the causal agent is a living organism which is stable over many generations of propagation, that infection is necessary for communication to occur, and that the quantity of infectious material transmitted is increased by multiplication after infection to produce disease manifestations. Although Snow's theory is similar to Jacob Henle's formulations of a decade earlier, it is more precise, more comprehensive, and more explicit. On the basis of this work alone, Snow deserves broader recognition than he has received.

Cholera

Lack of detection of human immunodeficiency virus in persistently seronegative homosexual men with high or medium risks for infection.

Some studies have suggested that seronegative homosexual men who have practiced high-risk sexual behavior can carry the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in a silent state, detectable only by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or selective viral culture. To assess this concept, blood specimens were studied from 59 homosexual men with recognized risk behaviors: unprotected anal receptive intercourse at least once and many lifetime sex partners. After extensive virologic studies and PCR analysis, only one virus-positive, antibody-negative individual was identified. These findings indicate that HIV virus-positive, seronegative individuals are rare.

Adult

CD8+ T lymphocytes and progression to AIDS in HIV-infected men: some observations.

The relationship between CD8+ lymphocyte counts and progression to AIDS was studied in 340 HIV-1-seropositive men participating in a population-based prospective study. Overall, the relative hazard for developing AIDS during 60 months of observation was slightly elevated (1.08, P = 0.003), indicating an 8% increase in risk of progression for every 100 CD8+ cell count increment. When the data were analyzed in relation to date of diagnosis, the relative hazard was depressed (0.90, P less than 0.001) for the period 6 months prior to diagnosis, but was close to 1.0 for the period 6-36 months prior to diagnosis. These findings suggest a complex relationship between CD8+ cell counts and progression to AIDS, with the possibility that various subsets of the CD8+ compartment play different roles.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome

The natural history of HIV-1 infection: staging classifications of disease.

We evaluated and compared four staging classification systems for HIV infection in a population-based cohort: (1) a staging based on prodromal clinical criteria; (2) the Walter Reed Staging Classification (WRSC); (3) the immunologic staging system (ISS), and (4) a simple staging based on oral disease and CD4+ T-cell depletion. The staging systems were applied to 386 HIV-infected men in the San Francisco Men's Health Study cohort who did not have AIDS at the baseline examination. After 48-56 months of follow-up the cumulative incidence of AIDS and the cumulative mortality by stage was determined for each staging. Unlike the other systems, the WRSC could not classify a substantial proportion of HIV-infected men (51.9%). The WRSC and ISS include one or more stages which did not appear to be associated with a prognosis substantially different from that of adjacent stages. The simplified staging system based on CD4+ T-cell depletion and oral disease may be the most effective of the systems studied. A more complete understanding of the pathophysiology during the evolution of HIV infection will be required to define a more detailed staging of this disease.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome

The prevalence of oral lesions in HIV-infected homosexual and bisexual men: three San Francisco epidemiological cohorts.

To establish the prevalence of HIV-related oral lesions, we performed oral examinations of members of three San Francisco epidemiological cohorts of homosexual and bisexual men over a 3-year period. Hairy leukoplakia, pseudomembranous and erythematous candidiasis, angular cheilitis, Kaposi's sarcoma, and oral ulcers were more common in HIV-infected subjects than in HIV-negative subjects. Among HIV-infected individuals, hairy leukoplakia was the most common lesion [20.4%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 17.5-23.3%] and pseudomembranous candidiasis was the next most common (5.8%, 95% CI 4.1-7.5%). Hairy leukoplakia, pseudomembranous candidiasis, angular cheilitis and Kaposi's sarcoma were significantly more common in patients with lower CD4 lymphocyte counts (P less than 0.05). The prevalence of erythematous candidiasis and Kaposi's sarcoma increased during the 3-year period. Careful oral examinations may identify infected patients and provide suggestive information concerning their immune status.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome

Population-based estimates of zidovudine and aerosol pentamidine use in San Francisco: 1987-1989.

From the San Francisco Men's Health Study (SFMHS) and the San Francisco General Hospital Cohort we derived partially population-based estimates of zidovudine (ZDV) use in San Francisco from 1987 to 1989. Data from the SFMHS alone were used to make estimates of aerosol pentamidine (AP) use in 1989. From 1987 to 1989, zidovudine use increased from 36 to 68% in participants with AIDS. In participants with symptomatic HIV infection without AIDS and in those with less than 200 CD4 cells, ZDV use increased initially but then leveled off (from 6 to 25% and 24 to 55%, respectively). Zidovudine use with more than 500 CD4 cells increased from 0.5 to 4%. In 1989 AP use with less than 200 CD4 cells was 42% and with AIDS was 44%. Whereas 50% of participants with AIDS and less than 200 CD4 were using both ZDV and AP, only 14% of those without AIDS but with less than 200 CD4 cells were using both. Surprisingly few members of these cohorts are using therapies proven effective in reducing the morbidity and mortality of HIV infection.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome

An evaluation of the polymerase chain reaction in HIV-1 seronegative men.

The apparent detection of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1) DNA by the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in seronegative individuals has been the subject of great concern. In this study, 324 seronegative participants in the San Francisco Men's Health Study were evaluated for evidence of infection using a PCR testing algorithm with multiple amplifications targeting different regions of the HIV-1 genome. While most PCR reactions were negative, 8.6% of the specimens showed weak reactivity with one or more primer sets. However, all were negative with at least one primer set and no definitively positive specimens were identified. This study addressed the possibility that some of these PCR reactions might represent latent infection or abortive exposure, leaving residual integrated DNA, rather than false-positive reactions. The frequency of such reactions was determined in homosexual men who have been at risk for HIV-1 infection and in exclusively heterosexual men who have little or no past exposure. The results demonstrate an identical frequency and distribution of equivocal PCR reactions in both populations. Assuming that there is minimal HIV-1 infection among seronegative heterosexual men in San Francisco, we conclude that PCR testing does not provide evidence for a reservoir of occult HIV-1 infection in seronegative homosexual men.

Adult

Changes in sexual practices over 5 years of follow-up among heterosexual men in San Francisco.

This report describes changes in sexual behavior of 209 heterosexual men enrolled in a prospective study since 1984. Data were analyzed separately for men who married during the 60 months of follow-up. Study subjects reported fewer total sexual partners and an increase in condom use in the more recent time periods compared to the first period. The proportion of never married men reporting two or more partners in the previous 6 months decreased from 53.2 to 40.7%. All of these men were human immunodeficiency virus seronegative on entry and only one documented seroconversion occurred during the follow-up.

Adult

National AIDS incidence trends and the extent of zidovudine therapy in selected demographic and transmission groups.

After mid-1987 fewer than the expected number of cases of AIDS were reported in the United States in some demographic and transmission groups but not in others. Gay men (regardless of intravenous drug use), adults with hemophilia, and transfusion recipients exhibited fewer cases than expected based on previously reliable models. These favorable trends could not be explained by assuming earlier cessation of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. Favorable AIDS incidence trends were not found in heterosexual intravenous drug users or in persons infected through heterosexual contact. White gay men from New York City, Los Angeles, and San Francisco experienced markedly favorable trends, whereas little changes was observed for nonwhite gay men from nonurban areas. AIDS incidence trends were quantitatively consistent with the fraction of AIDS-free persons with severe immunodeficiency who received zidovudine in three cohorts. Gay men in San Francisco used zidovudine more frequently than did adults with hemophilia, while little was used by intravenous drug users in New York City. Data describing the initial national distribution of zidovudine (March 31-September 18, 1987) indicated relatively high use by patients with severe immunodeficiency in those groups, such as urban white gay men, that subsequently experienced fewer cases of AIDS than expected. Available data suggest that zidovudine, perhaps in combination with other therapies, has been one factor contributing to favorable AIDS incidence trends in some groups. Broader application of therapy might further retard the incidence of AIDS, especially in intravenous drug users, persons infected through heterosexual contact, minorities, women, and persons diagnosed outside major metropolitan areas.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome

Projections of AIDS morbidity and mortality in San Francisco.

To develop a model for predicting acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) morbidity in San Francisco, Calif, through June 1993, we combined annual human immunodeficiency virus seroconversion rates for homosexual and bisexual men and for heterosexual intravenous drug users with estimates of the cumulative proportion of the population with AIDS by duration of human immunodeficiency virus infection and with estimates of the size of the at-risk populations. We projected AIDS mortality by applying Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival time following diagnosis to the projected number of cases. The median incubation period for AIDS among homosexual and bisexual men infected with the human immunodeficiency virus was estimated to be 11.0 years (mean, 11.8 years; 95% confidence interval, 10.6 to 13.0 years). The model projects 12,349 to 17,022 cumulative cases of AIDS in San Francisco through June 1993, with 9,966 to 12,767 cumulative deaths.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome