Non-differential misclassification of exposure always leads to an underestimate of risk: an incorrect conclusion.
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to T Sorahan.
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OBJECTIVE: The aim was to describe cause specific mortality among steel foundry workers and to determine if any part of the experience may be due to occupation. DESIGN: Historical prospective cohort study. SETTING: Nine steel foundries in England and one in Scotland. SUBJECTS: 10,438 male production employees first employed in the period 1946-65 and with a minimum period of employment of one year. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Observed and expected numbers of deaths for the period 1946-90. RESULTS: Compared with the general population of England and Wales, standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) for all causes and all neoplasms were 115 (observed deaths (Obs) 3976) and 119 (Obs 1129) respectively. Statistically significant excesses were found for cancer of the stomach (Obs 124, expected deaths (Exp) 92.5, SMR 134, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 111-160) and cancer of the lung (Obs 551, Exp 378.3, SMR 146, 95% CI 134-158). A raised SMR (153) was also found for non-malignant diseases of the respiratory system. Classifications of jobs attracting either higher dust or higher fume exposures did not usefully predict these increased SMRs. Poisson regression was used to investigate risks of mortality from all cancers, cancer of the stomach, cancer of the lung, and non-malignant diseases of the respiratory system associated with duration of employment in the foundry area, the fettling shop, the foundry area/fettling shop, and the industry in general. Monotonic dose-response relations were not found, although there were positive trends for lung cancer and employment in the foundry area/fettling shop (1.0, 1.21, 1.44, 1.26) and for diseases of the respiratory system and employment in the fettling shop (1.0, 1.37, 1.18, 1.35). CONCLUSIONS: Confident interpretation of the causes of the raised SMRs was not possible. There was limited evidence of an occupational role in the excesses of lung cancer and diseases of the respiratory system. Smoking history was shown, in an indirect way, to be an unlikely explanation.
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Paternal occupational data already collected as part of the Oxford Survey of Childhood Cancers have been reviewed. Information on occupations during or before the relevant pregnancy was sought for 15,279 children dying from cancer in England, Wales, and Scotland in the period 1953-81, and for an equal number of matched controls. Estimates were made for paternal exposure to human-made external ionizing radiation in the six months before conception of the survey child--as judged from job histories and dates of birth. Assessments were also made for potential exposure to unsealed sources of radionuclides. Of the eight fathers placed in the highest dose group (> or = 10 mSv, external radiation), four were cases and four were controls. For the second dose group (5-9 mSv), the corresponding numbers were eight and four, and for the lowest exposed group (1-4 mSv), they were 55 and 42. There were 27 case fathers with potential exposure to radionuclides and only 10 control fathers. The independent effects of the two radiation variables were assessed by means of multiple logistic regression. Relative risks for estimated doses of external radiation were close to unity, but for radionuclide exposure the relative risk was 2.87 (95% CI = 1.15-7.13). These preliminary findings suggest that paternal exposure to radionuclides is a more likely risk factor for childhood cancer than exposure to external radiation.
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OBJECTIVE: To describe cause specific mortality and site specific cancer morbidity among workers employed in factories that produce polyurethane foams, and to determine if any part of the experience may be due to occupation, and in particular to exposure to diisocyanates. DESIGN: Historical prospective cohort study. SETTING: 11 factories in England and Wales. SUBJECTS: 8288 male and female production employees with some employment in the period 1958-79, and with a minimum period of employment of six months. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Observed and expected numbers of deaths for the period 1958-88, and corresponding figures for cancer registrations for the period 1971-86. RESULTS: Compared with the general population of England and Wales, standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) for all causes and all neoplasms were 97 (observed deaths (Obs) 816) and 88 (Obs 221) respectively. Statistically significant excesses were found among women for cancer of the pancreas (expected deaths (Exp) 2.2, Obs 6, SMR 271, 95% CI 100-595) and cancer of the lung (Exp 9.1, Obs 16, SMR 176, 95% CI 100-285). Similar excesses were not found among male employees, and the SMRs for cancers of the lung and pancreas among the total study population were 100 (Obs 81) and 136 (Obs 14) respectively. Overall incidence of cancer was also below expectation (SRR 94, Obs 277), although statistically significant excesses among women were found for cancers of the larynx and kidney, based on three and four cases respectively. Incident cancers of the lung and pancreas among women were also in excess, although these findings were not independent of the findings for mortality. Poison regression did not indicate that ever having been employed in jobs attracting either higher or lower exposure to isocyanates was a risk factor for the mentioned cancers. A nested case-control design was used to investigate any associations with nine other occupational exposures. No statistically significant association was found. CONCLUSIONS: In general, cancer rates in this population were lower than those for the general population. All increased cancer rates among women occurred at sites of cancer known to be related to cigarette smoking, and these excesses are probably due to a combination of cigarette smoking, chance, and factors unrelated to the industry under study.
BACKGROUND AND METHODS: Prevalence of benign melanocytic nevi (moles) has been shown to be a major predictor of malignant melanoma. In this study the prevalence of moles in a group of 2140 children, aged 4 to 11 years, was determined. A standard questionnaire was completed by the parents of each child and included information on environmental and life-style factors. Examination data for each child were linked to the data obtained from the questionnaire. RESULTS: Prevalence increases rapidly throughout childhood and studies of children may indicate which factors contribute to mole development. Boys had more moles than girls, as did white children when compared with other ethnic groups. Prevalence of moles increased with age in children of both sexes. Among whites, skin color had little influence on mole prevalence. The following characteristics, however, were associated with an increased prevalence of moles: a propensity to burn rather than tan, a history of sunburn, a tendency to freckle, and a life-style involving increased sun exposure. A striking positive association between prevalence of moles and number of foreign holidays in a hot climate was observed. This association was independent of a history of sunburn. CONCLUSIONS: The study supports the hypothesis that environmental factors influence the prevalence of moles in childhood.
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The prevalence of benign pigmented nevi in a group of 187 children, aged 8 or 9 years, was determined for each of 31 anatomic sites. Information on possible associated factors was obtained from the children's parents with a standard interview questionnaire. Pale skin color was found to be associated with a higher prevalence of nevi. A comparison of these data with recent data from Australia supports the hypotheses that (1) the number of nevi is a risk factor for melanoma and (2) groups at high risk of melanoma may be formed in childhood.
In a regional case-control study of coarse fishing and urothelial cancer, histories from 989 patients with tumours diagnosed in the period 1985-87 were compared with histories from 2,059 unmatched electoral register controls and 1,599 matched general practitioner controls. Angling and the use of dyed maggots by anglers were not found to be risk factors. The study emphasises the importance of the established risk factor of cigarette smoking.
The mortality experienced by a cohort of 36,691 rubber workers during 1946-85 has been investigated. These workers were all male operatives first employed in any one of the 13 participating factories in 1946-60; all had worked continuously in the industry for a minimum period of one year. Compared with the general population, statistically significant excesses relating to cancer mortality were found for cancer of the pharynx (E = 20.2, O = 30, SMR = 149), oesophagus (E = 87.6, O = 107, SMR = 122), stomach (E = 316.5, O = 359, SMR = 113), lung (E = 1219.2, O = 1592, SMR = 131), and all neoplasms (E = 2965.6, O = 3344, SMR = 113). Statistically significant deficits were found for cancer of the prostate. (E = 128.2, O = 91, SMR = 71), testis (E = 11.0, O = 4, SMR = 36), and Hodgkin's disease (E = 26.9, O = 16, SMR = 59). Involvement of occupational exposures was assessed by the method of regression models and life tables (RMLT). This method was used to compare the duration of employment in the industry, the duration in "dust exposed" jobs, and the duration in "fume and/or solvent exposed" jobs of those dying from causes of interest with those of all matching survivors. Positive associations (approaching formal levels of statistical significance) were found only for cancers of the stomach and the lung. The results of the RMLT analysis are independent of those from the SMR analysis, and the study continues to provide limited evidence of a causal association between the risks of stomach cancer and dust exposures, and the risks of lung cancer and fume or solvent exposures in the rubber industry during the period under study.
The mortality experienced by a cohort of 10,491 United Kingdom steel foundry workers during the period 1946-85 has been investigated. These workers were all male operatives first employed in any one of the 10 participating foundries in 1946-65; all had worked in the industry for a minimum period of one year. Compared with the general population of England and Wales, statistically significant excesses relating to cancer mortality were found for cancer of the stomach (E = 77.4, O = 106, SMR = 137) and cancer of the lung (E = 229.2, O = 441, SMR = 147). A statistically significant deficit was found for cancer of the brain (E = 19.4, O = 10, SMR = 51). Involvement of occupational exposures was assessed by the method of regression models and life tables (RMLT). This method was used to compare the duration of employment in the industry, in "dust exposed" jobs, in "fume exposed" jobs, in foundry area jobs, in fettling shop jobs, and in foundry area or fettling shop jobs, of those dying from cancers of the stomach and lung with those of all matching survivors. The RMLT analyses provided evidence of an occupational involvement in the risk of death from lung cancer from work in the foundry area or fettling shop, and weaker evidence of an occupational involvement in the risk of death from stomach cancer from work in the foundry area.
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