On graduating infant and childhood mortality with mathematical curves.
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to S Krishnamoorthy.
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A model is developed to study the effects of fertility and mortality on number of living children and on extinction of family. Numerical illustrations are provided by applying the model to three different populations differing in fertility and mortality. It is found that a combination of a high birth rate and a low death rate is required to assure a reasonable probability that the family will not ultimately become extinct. A moderate to high birth rate and a low death rate are necessary to assure that there will be at least one surviving son in the parents' old age. This finding implies that zero population growth is impossible as long as parents depend on children for old age security. Thus, alternate old age security measures must be adopted by societies attempting to reduce their birth rate to the replacement level.
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Mathematical expressions are developed for certain life cycles when only the age-specific birth and death rates are known. The probability at birth that a woman will have a specified number of children and the expected length of time spent before the first birth, between the first and the last child, and between the last child and the time of the woman's death are shown to be calculable. Expressions for the probability of at least one child outliving the mother and for the expected number of children outliving the mother are also developed and are evaluated for three selected countries with different birth and death rates to show how these life cycles depend on birth and death rates.
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Twenty-six patients with old unreduced dislocation of the elbow treated by open reduction were reviewed. All patients improved after surgery. It is felt that any patient with an elbow dislocation which is less than 3 months old should be treated by open reduction. The operative technique using a medial and lateral approach and keeping the dissection extraperiosteal is described.
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The data from the National Family Health Survey, 1992-1993, show that the extent of consanguinity is high (34.7 percent) in South India; 26.2 percent of women married close blood relatives, and 8.5 percent of women married distant blood relatives. A definite downward trend in the proportion of marriages between close blood relatives is observed. Education, age at marriage, religion and caste, and urban-rural childhood residence have significant independent effects on consanguinity. The multinomial logistic regression analysis reveals that in South India the downward trend in the proportion of marriages between close blood relatives is entirely explained by rising age at marriage and women's education over time.
"In this paper the mathematical principles behind the construction of multistate life tables are presented. [They are] then applied to study the patterns of first marriage, widowhood, divorce and remarriage of the Australian female population for the year 1971." Comparisons are also made with data for the United States in 1970. The author finds that "the first marriage patterns of both countries are very similar. But the divorce pattern is different. Though the probability that a marriage will end in a divorce is much lower in Australia than in the United States, the proportion of divorcees remarrying is only slightly lower in Australia.... Expected duration of a marriage is about 10.5 years longer in Australia than in the United States." (summary in FRE, ITA)
"In a recent paper, Pollard (1991) has demonstrated that under the Gompertz law of mortality quick accurate or approximate answers can be obtained to many queries on survival. Some of Pollard's formulae can also be developed in the context of multiple decrement life tables so as to arrive at simple solutions to problems on the probability of death due to a given cause and the effect of the elimination of a cause of death. It is realized that the cause-specific force of mortality may not obey the Gompertz law. Still, it may be possible to group the causes in such a way that for each group the Gompertz curve provides a good approximation."