[Estimation of the presumable number of candidates for aortocoronary bypass in Italy].
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to A Menotti.
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Data from the Seven Countries Study are analysed to examine the relationship between the observed incidence of Coronary Heart Disease in the second 5-year period of follow-up and the major entry risk factors and their changes over the first 5 years. The analysis, using the Multiple Logistic Function model, shows that changes in systolic blood pressure and smoking habits are significant factors associated with incidence, while changes in cholesterol and body mass index do not play this role. This conclusion applies to the population as a whole. A more detailed analysis, stratifying the population by estimated risk at entry and changes of risk over 5 years, shows that incidence is related to changes of risk in low and medium entry risk groups. Moreover, a univariate analysis of data limited to systolic blood pressure and cholesterol indicates that changes in blood pressure are related to incidence in the group with highest entry level of blood pressure, while changes in cholesterol are irrelevant to subsequent incidence.
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A multivariate analysis employing the multiple logistic function model has been performed for the prediction of coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths and of other causes of death as function of 14 coronary risk factors measured at entry examination in the pool of two Italian rural population samples, made of 1712 men aged 40-59 at entry and followed for 15 years. A limited number of factors--namely age, serum cholesterol, blood pressure, smoking habits, forced expiratory volume, diabetes--yielded significant coefficients variously associated each other in the different solutions. They were able to provide a satisfactory discrimination between cases and non cases, not only for CHD but also for other end-points including strokes, cancer and lung cancer in particular, chronic bronchitis, and all causes of death. A suggestive prediction of violent causes of death was possible thank to a significant coefficient attributable to blood pressure. Serum cholesterol was significantly contributory only in the prediction of CHD. The multipotentiality of some factors is stressed in view of the planning of community prevention programs directed towards several chronic conditions at the same time.
Three cohorts of man aged 40-59 at entry have been enrolled in Italy within the Seven Countries Study and followed-up for 10 years. They included demographic samples in the rural areas of Crevalcore, north Italy (n. 993) and of Montegiorgio, central Italy (n. 719) and a sample of Railroad men living in Rome and surroundings (n. 768) with an entry participating of about 92% and a 5 and 10 year follow-up participating of about the same level. Incidence of coronary heart disease in 10 years in men coronary-free at entry has been, for the pool of the three cohorts, of about 0.4% per year for hard criteria coronary heart disease (coronary deaths and hard infarcts) and of about 1% per year for all kinds of coronary heart disease including softer diagnoses. Differences between cohorts were small and altogether not significant except for coronary deaths which were higher in the Railroad group than in Montegiorgio. The prediction of coronary heart disease as function of the entry levels of some risk factors, estimated by the multiple logistic equation, suggested that also for these Italian samples, age, blood pressure, serum cholesterol, smoking habits and physical activity (the latter with a protective role) are the main risk factors although cholesterol seems to play a lesser role in the Railroad group than in the Rural cohorts. Proportions of 34 to 68% of the observed cases were located in the upper 20% of the distribution of the estimated risk and the ratio between cases in the upper and bottom quintile of risk ranged 4 to 14 folds. The degree of discrimination suggested by these and other indicators resulted to be directly related to the severity of the coronary heart disease manifestations considered as end-points (deaths, hard cases, all cases). Such varying discriminating role was mainly due to the varying predicting power of serum cholesterol.
A cohort of 172,489 males aged 20--64 years and employed by the Italian railroad system on 1 April 1963 have been classified by habitual physical activity at work and followed-up for death during a ten-year period. The overall crude mortality was 56.59 per 1,000 in ten years, and no significant differences were found between men in sedentary, moderate and heavy work. Age-corrected death rates for coronary heart disease, as manifested by myocardial infarction and sudden coronary death, were substantially different in the three activity groups, moderately active workers ranking first, sedentary workers second, but very close to the former, and very active workers being last. The age-corrected rates for all ages were 14.18, 12.55 and 7.63 per 1,000 in ten years, respectively. All differences were statistically significant, the mortality ratio between the sedentary and moderate groups combined versus the heavy group being of the order of 1.75 to 1.
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Mortality in 5 and 10 years for all causes in over 172,000 men classified for habitual physical activity at work was not substancially different between subjects classifed as sedentary, moderate and heavy workers. Mortality for coronary heart disease (CHD), for the same length of observation was statistically higher in sedentary and moderate than in heavy workers (ratio 1.7/1). Bivariate analysis considering both physical activity and responsibility at work, limited to 99,000 men aged 40-59 at entry for a period of 5 years having as end-point CHD, indicated that mortality is higher for higher levels of responsability. Partial correlation coefficients between physical activity and working responsibility on one side, and mortality for CHD on the other showed significant levels (-0.72 and 0.71 respectively) when considering eight combination of different activity and responsibility levels.
Mortality for coronary heart disease (CHD) in two samples of men aged 40-59 at entry was rather different after the first 5 year follow-up, but became more and more similar - and substancially identical - after 15 year follow-up. In the community which showed the greatest relative increase of CHD mortality beyond the fifth year, a drastic change in the characteristics of drinking water had occurred, with a large reduction of hardness, and of calcium and magnesium concentration.
Serum cholesterol and triglyceride levels have been evaluated in samples from fasting males aged 20--59 in Northern (Brisighella), Central (Rome) and Southern (Pozzuoli) Italy. Regularly performed quality controls between laboratories assured comparability of data. A statisitically significant difference of mean serum cholesterol and triglyceride levels was observed for most age-groups in the 3 different areas, lower values being found in the southern population as compared to the central and northern ones. These results support previous findings and the thesis that large differences in blood lipid levels may still exist even within the same country and that they at least in part may be culturally determined in connection with different dietary habits.
A critical review is made of a recent article by G. Mann (New Engl. J. Med., 297, 644, 1977) where an attack is moved to the theory according which the diet is a basic factor in the epidemic of coronary heart disease. Most of the Mann' arguments are contradicted and an attempt is made to explain why his article has received such a large attention also outisde the strictly scientific mass-media.
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