Search PubMed⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search PubMed

Results for “spatially explicit population models”

Search indexed PubMed citations on genomics, clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health. Explore titles, authors and supplied subject terms, then open the PubMed record.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2004

Evaluating habitat as a surrogate for population viability using a spatially explicit population model.

Because data for conservation planning are always limited, surrogates are often substituted for intractable measurements such as species richness or population viability. We examined the ability of habitat quality to act as a surrogate for population performance for both Red-shouldered Hawks (Buteo lineatus) and Northern Goshawks (Accipiter gentilis). We compared simple measures of habitat quality to estimates of population growth rates obtained from a spatially explicit model of population dynamics. We found that habitat quality was a relatively poor predictor of simulated population growth rates for several reasons. First, a relatively small proportion of the potential habitat for each species served as population sources in our simulations--15% for Red-shouldered Hawks and 2% for Goshawks. Second, when habitat quality correctly predicted demographic sources on the landscape, it consistently underestimated the contribution of these areas to the population. In areas where habitat quality correctly anticipated the presence of demographic sinks, we found no useful quantitative relationship between the two measures. Our simulation model captured the influence of habitat quality on the hawk populations, but it also incorporated interactions between dispersing individuals and landscape patterns. Thus, the discrepancies we observed likely reflected the influence of forest fragmentation and the spatial arrangement of forest patches on the populations. We conclude that simple measures of habitat quality will often be poor surrogates for population persistence, but that spatially explicit population models can help inform the development of better indices.

Animals↗
PubMed1999

Finding the Missing Link between Landscape Structure and Population Dynamics: A Spatially Explicit Perspective.

We construct and explore a general modeling framework that allows for a systematic investigation of the impact of changes in landscape structure on population dynamics. The essential parts of the framework are a landscape generator with independent control over landscape composition and physiognomy, an individual-based spatially explicit population model that simulates population dynamics within heterogeneous landscapes, and scale-dependent landscape indices that depict the essential aspects of landscape that interact with dispersal and demographic processes. Landscape maps are represented by a grid of [Formula: see text] cells and consist of good-quality, poor-quality, or uninhabitable matrix habitat cells. The population model was shaped in accordance to the biology of European brown bears (Ursus arctos), and demographic parameters were adjusted to yield a source-sink configuration. Results obtained with the spatially explicit model do not confirm results of earlier nonspatial source-sink models where addition of sink habitat resulted in a decrease of total population size because of dilution of high-quality habitat. Our landscape indices, which describe scale-dependent correlation between and within habitat types, were able to explain variations in variables of population dynamics (mean number of females with sink home ranges, mean number of females with source home ranges, and mean dispersal distance) caused by different landscape structure. When landscape structure changed, changes in these variables generally followed the corresponding change of an appropriate landscape index in a linear way. Our general approach incorporates source-sink dynamics as well as metapopulation dynamics, and the population model can easily be modified for other species groups.

habitat connectivity↗
PubMed2005

An approach to predict risks to wildlife populations from mercury and other stressors.

Ecological risk assessments for mercury (Hg) require measured and modeled information on exposure and effects. While most of this special issue focuses on the former, i.e., distribution and fate of Hg within aquatic food webs, this paper describes an approach to predict the effects of dietary methylmercury (CH3Hg) on populations of piscivorous birds. To demonstrate this approach, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory (U.S. EPA NHEERL) is working cooperatively with environmental and conservation organizations to develop models to predict CH3Hg effects on populations of the common loon, Gavia immer. Specifically, a biologically-based toxicokinetic model is being used to extrapolate CH3Hg effects on the reproduction of a tested bird species, the American kestrel (Falco sparverius), to the loon. Population models are being used to incorporate stressor effects on survival and reproduction into projections of loon population effects. Finally, habitat and spatially-explicit population models are being used to project results spatially, assess the relative importance of CH3Hg and non-chemical stressors, and produce testable predictions of the effects of biologically-available Hg on loon populations. This stepwise process provides an integrated approach to estimate the impact on wildlife populations of regulations that limit atmospherically-distributed Hg, and to develop risk-based population-level regulatory criteria.

Animals↗
PubMed1996

Spatially explicit models for the population dynamics of a species colonizing an island.

We construct reaction-diffusion models for the population dynamics of a species colonizing an island from a source population on a continent. We view the source population as inducing a density or flux of immigrants onto the island and interpret colonization as succeeding if the population on the island is predicted to persist even when immigration from the continent is stopped. To capture the observation that a sufficiently large population or density must be attained for colonization to succeed, we assume Allee (i.e., bistable) dynamics rather than logistic dynamics for the colonizing population. We consider the cases of colonization in both the absence and presence of a competitor. We use reaction-diffusion theory, especially comparison methods and sub- and supersolutions, to determine how parameters such as the distance from the continent to the island and the dispersal, birth and mortality rates, carrying capacity, and minimum viable population density of the colonizing species affect the outcome of the attempted colonization. In the case of colonization in the presence of a competitor we consider a number of scenarios involving different types and strengths of competition. Our analysis permits us to draw conclusions about the characteristics of a species that make it a good colonizer.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Incorporating movement into models of grey seal population dynamics.

1. One of the most difficult problems in developing spatially explicit models of population dynamics is the validation and parameterization of the movement process. We show how movement models derived from capture-recapture analysis can be improved by incorporating them into a spatially explicit metapopulation model that is fitted to a time series of abundance data. 2. We applied multisite capture-recapture analysis techniques to photo-identification data collected from female grey seals at the four main breeding colonies in the North Sea between 1999 and 2001. The best-fitting movement models were then incorporated into state-space metapopulation models that explicitly accounted for demographic and observational stochasticity. 3. These metapopulation models were fitted to a 20-year time series of pup production data for each colony using a Bayesian approach. The best-fitting model, based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), had only a single movement parameter, whose confidence interval was 82% less than that obtained from the capture-recapture study, but there was some support for a model that included an effect of distance between colonies. 4. The state-space modelling provided improved estimates of other demographic parameters. 5. The incorporation of movement, and the way in which it was modelled, affected both local and regional dynamics. These differences were most evident as colonies approached their carrying capacities, suggesting that our ability to discriminate between models should improve as the length of the grey seal time series increases.

Animal Migration↗
PubMed2000

Synchronism in a metapopulation model.

We consider a spatially explicit meta-population model with interaction among the two nearest neighbors to relate, with a simple mathematical expression, chaos in the local, uncoupled, populations, the degree of interaction among patches, size of the meta-population, and the stability of the synchronized attractor. Since synchronism is strongly correlated with extinction, our results can provide useful information on factors leading to population extinction.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Fees or refuges: which is better for the sustainable management of insect resistance to transgenic Bt corn?

The evolution of resistance in insect pests will imperil the efficiency of transgenic insect-resistant crops. The currently advised strategy to delay resistance evolution is to plant non-toxic crops (refuges) in close proximity to plants engineered to express the toxic protein of the bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt). We seek answers to the question of how to induce growers to plant non-toxic crops. A first strategy, applied in the United States, is to require Bt growers to plant non-Bt refuges and control their compliance with requirements. We suggest that an alternative strategy is to make Bt seed more expensive by instituting a user fee, and we compare both strategies by integrating economic processes into a spatially explicit, population genetics model. Our results indicate that although both strategies may allow the sustainable management of the common pool of Bt-susceptibility alleles in pest populations, for the European corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis) one of the most serious pests in the US corn belt, the fee strategy is less efficient than refuge requirements.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Density-dependent habitat selection and performance by a large mobile reef fish.

Many exploited reef fish are vulnerable to overfishing because they concentrate over hard-bottom patchy habitats. How mobile reef fish use patchy habitat, and the potential consequences on demographic parameters, must be known for spatially explicit population dynamics modeling, for discriminating essential fish habitat (EFH), and for effectively planning conservation measures (e.g., marine protected areas, stock enhancement, and artificial reefs). Gag, Mycteroperca microlepis, is an ecologically and economically important warm-temperate grouper in the southeastern United States, with behavioral and life history traits conducive to large-scale field experiments. The Suwannee Regional Reef System (SRRS) was built of standard habitat units (SHUs) in 1991-1993 to manipulate and control habitat patchiness and intrinsic habitat quality, and thereby test predictions from habitat selection theory. Colonization of the SRRS by gag over the first six years showed significant interactions of SHU size, spacing, and reef age; with trajectories modeled using a quadratic function for closely spaced SHUs (25 m) and a linear model for widely spaced SHUs (225 m), with larger SHUs (16 standardized cubes) accumulating significantly more gag faster than smaller 4-cube SHUs (mean = 72.5 gag/16-cube SHU at 225-m spacing by year 6, compared to 24.2 gag/4-cube SHU for same spacing and reef age). Residency times (mean = 9.8 mo), indicative of choice and measured by ultrasonic telemetry (1995-1998), showed significant interaction of SHU size and spacing consistent with colonization trajectories. Average relative weight (W(r)) and incremental growth were greater on smaller than larger SHUs (mean W(r) = 104.2 vs. 97.7; incremental growth differed by 15%), contrary to patterns of abundance and residency. Experimental manipulation of shelter on a subset of SRRS sites (2000-2001) confirmed our hypothesis that shelter limits local densities of gag, which, in turn, regulates their growth and condition. Density-dependent habitat selection for shelter and individual growth dynamics were therefore interdependent ecological processes that help to explain how patchy reef habitat sustains gag production. Moreover, gag selected shelter at the expense of maximizing their growth. Thus, mobile reef fishes could experience density-dependent effects on growth, survival, and/or reproduction (i.e., demographic parameters) despite reduced stock sizes as a consequence of fishing.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Average dispersal success: linking home range, dispersal, and metapopulation dynamics to reserve design.

Spatially explicit models for populations are often difficult to tackle mathematically and, in addition, require detailed data on individual movement behavior that are not easily obtained. An approximation known as the "average dispersal success" provides a tool for converting complex models, which may include stage structure and a mechanistic description of dispersal, into a simple matrix model. This simpler matrix model has two key advantages. First, it is easier to parameterize from the types of empirical data typically available to conservation biologists, such as survivorship, fecundity, and the fraction of juveniles produced in a study area that also recruit within the study area. Second, it is more amenable to theoretical investigation. Here, we use the average dispersal success approximation to develop estimates of the critical reserve size for systems comprising single patches or simple metapopulations. The quantitative approach can be used for both plants and animals; however, to provide a concrete example of the technique's utility, we focus on a special case pertinent to animals. Specifically, for territorial animals, we can characterize such an estimate of minimum viable habitat area in terms of the number of home ranges that the reserve contains. Consequently, the average dispersal success framework provides a framework through which home range size, natal dispersal distances, and metapopulation dynamics can be linked to reserve design. We briefly illustrate the approach using empirical data for the swift fox (Vulpes velox).

Animals↗
PubMed1998

Spatially explicit model of transposon-based genetic drive mechanisms for displacing fluctuating populations of anopheline vector mosquitoes.

To evaluate the prospect of transposon-based genetic drive mechanisms for replacing African vectors of malaria with nonvector anopheline mosquitoes, we developed a spatially explicit simulation model that determined the likelihood that released transgenic mosquitoes may proceed to fixation or extinction under diverse conditions. We compared the effect on fixation of long breeding seasons with relatively subtle population fluctuations to short breeding seasons with severe bottlenecks. Assuming 100% transposition efficiency among heterozygotes with fitness varying between 50 and 100% of that of wild-type mosquitoes, we simulated releases of 1, 10, 50, 90, and 99% of transposon-bearers in relation to wild mosquitoes as well as 1 and 10% releases that were repeated annually. We also evaluated diverse patterns of release including linear, marginal, focused, and scattered distribution. Random dispersal provided the most rapid fixation of transposons within populations. More massive releases allowed longer persistence of transposon-bearers but did not promote fixation, especially when breeding seasons were long. Relative fitness of transposon-bearers, however, proved more powerful than pattern or number of releases in determining whether a construct will become fixed or extinct. Even when fitness approaches that of the wild-type, fixation of a construct may require 150 generations or more.

Animals↗
PubMed2001

Source-sink dynamics between transgenic and non-transgenic habitats and their role in the evolution of resistance.

The interaction of population dynamics and movement among two habitat types (toxic transgenic fields and nontoxic refuge fields) on the evolution of insecticide resistance was examined in two different simulation models. The two models were developed to test the hypothesis that increasing habitat grain from fine-grained to coarse-grained, and the resultant increase in nonrandom mating, would increase the rate of local adaptation, here the evolution of resistance. The first model, a complex, stochastic spatially explicit model, altered habitat grain by varying adult dispersal rates between habitat patches. In contrast to the expectation that increasing patch isolation and increasing the coarseness of the habitats would increase the rate of resistance evolution, intermediate levels of dispersal actually delayed resistance by as much as fivefold over the range of dispersal levels observed. Source-sink dynamics related to ovipositional patterns and the related population dynamics appear to explain the results. A simple deterministic model was developed to abstract out the separate impacts of mating and ovipositional behaviors. This model showed qualitatively the same results, although under similar assumptions it predicted much longer delays in resistance evolution. In this model, nonrandom mating alone always increased the rate at which insects adapted to transgenic crops, but nonrandom mating in combination with nonrandom oviposition could significantly delay resistance evolution. Differences between the two models may be due to the population regulation incorporated in the spatially explicit model. The models clearly suggest that resistance management programs using untreated refuges should not over-emphasize random mating at the cost of making the habitat too fine-grained.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Modeling leaf dispersal in mixed hardwood forests using a ballistic approach.

In mixed-species stands, modeling leaf litter dispersal is important to predict the physical and chemical characteristics of the forest floor, which plays a major role in nutrient cycling and in plant population dynamics. In this study, a spatially explicit model of leaf litterfall was developed and compared with two other models. These three models were calibrated for a mixed forest of oak and beech using litterfall data from mapped forest plots. All models assumed that an allometric equation described individual leaf litter production, but they strongly differed in the modeling of the probability density of leaf shedding with distance from source trees. Two models used a negative exponential function to account for leaf dispersal with distance, and this function was allowed to vary according to wind direction in one of them. In contrast, our approach was based on a simple ballistic equation considering release height, wind speed, wind direction, and leaf fall velocity; the distributions of wind speeds and wind directions were modeled according to a Weibull and a Von Mises distribution, respectively. Using an independent validation data set, all three models provided predictions well correlated to measurements (r > 0.83); however, the two models with a direction-dependent component were slightly more accurate. In addition, parameter estimates of the ballistic model were in close agreement with a foliar litter production equation derived from the literature for beech and with wind characteristics measured during leaf litterfall for both species. Because of its mechanistic background, such a spatially explicit model might be incorporated as a litterfall module in larger models (nutrient cycling, plant population dynamics) or used to determine the manner in which patch size in mixed-species stands influences litter mixture.

Biodiversity↗
PubMed1998

Host spatial heterogeneity and extinction of an SIS epidemic.

Spatially explicit epidemic models explore population-level consequences of interactions between neighboring infectious and susceptible individuals. Most such models equate local and global host density, so that each individual interacts with the same number of neighbors. But many natural populations exhibit heterogeneity in local abundance. Therefore, we let host dispersion vary from uniform to clumped in a spatial epidemic with recovery. We analytically approximated the epidemic with a branching process to show how the probability of pathogen extinction could depend on the degree of host clumping. We then simulated the detailed model across a range of parameter combinations. Both approaches to the problem indicate that host spatial aggregation strongly increases the chance of pathogen extinction.

Animals↗
PubMed2002

Pollen movement in declining populations of California Valley oak, Quercus lobata: where have all the fathers gone?

The fragmented populations and reduced population densities that result from human disturbance are issues of growing importance in evolutionary and conservation biology. A key issue is whether remnant individuals become reproductively isolated. California Valley oak (Quercus lobata) is a widely distributed, endemic species in California, increasingly jeopardized by anthropogenic changes in biota and land use. We studied pollen movement in a savannah population of Valley oak at Sedgwick Reserve, Santa Barbara County, to estimate effective number of pollen donors (Nep) and average distance of effective pollen movement (delta). Using twogener, our recently developed hybrid model of paternity and genetic structure treatments that analyses maternal and progeny multilocus genotypes, we found that current Nep = 3.68 individuals. Based on an average adult density of d= 1.19 stems/ha, we assumed a bivariate normal distribution to model current average pollen dispersal distance (delta) and estimated delta= 64.8 m. We then deployed our parameter estimates in spatially explicit models of the Sedgwick population to evaluate the extent to which Nep may have changed, as a consequence of progressive stand thinning between 1944 and 1999. Assuming that pollen dispersal distance has not changed, we estimate Nep was 4.57 individuals in 1944, when stand density was 1.48. Both estimates indicate fewer effective fathers than one might expect for wind-pollinated species and fewer than observed elsewhere. The results presented here provide a basis for further refinements on modelling pollen movement. If the trends continue, then ongoing demographic attrition could further reduce neighbourhood size in Valley oak resulting in increased risk of reproductive failure and genetic isolation.

California↗
PubMed2001

Habitat structure and population persistence in an experimental community.

Understanding spatial population dynamics is fundamental for many questions in ecology and conservation. Many theoretical mechanisms have been proposed whereby spatial structure can promote population persistence, in particular for exploiter-victim systems (host-parasite/pathogen, predator-prey) whose interactions are inherently oscillatory and therefore prone to extinction of local populations. Experiments have confirmed that spatial structure can extend persistence, but it has rarely been possible to identify the specific mechanisms involved. Here we use a model-based approach to identify the effects of spatial population processes in experimental systems of bean plants (Phaseolus lunatus), herbivorous mites (Tetranychus urticae) and predatory mites (Phytoseiulus persimilis). On isolated plants, and in a spatially undivided experimental system of 90 plants, prey and predator populations collapsed; however, introducing habitat structure allowed long-term persistence. Using mechanistic models, we determine that spatial population structure did not contribute to persistence, and spatially explicit models are not needed. Rather, habitat structure reduced the success of predators at locating prey outbreaks, allowing between-plant asynchrony of local population cycles due to random colonization events.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Hydrological modelling of snail dispersal patterns in Msambweni, Kenya and potential resurgence of Schistosoma haematobium transmission.

Urinary schistosomiasis is an important source of human morbidity in Msambweni, Kenya, where the intermediate host snail, Bulinus nasutus is found in ponds and water pools. In the past, aquatic habitats in the area have been studied separately; however, recent collections of B. nasutus snails and shells indicated that many of these ponds are in fact connected during and following sufficient rains. Satellite imagery and a geographical information system (GIS) were used to survey the main water courses and potential drainage routes, to locate potential source populations of snails and to determine probable snail dispersal routes. The 2 water bodies implicated as being the most important Schistosoma haematobium transmission foci in the area were found to differ in their degree of connectivity to other B. nasutus source habitats. One pond becomes connected even after normal rains, while the other pond requires prolonged rains or flooding to become connected with source habitats. Consequently, the transmission foci differ in their susceptibility to snail population control measures. Spatially explicit dispersal models that consider the spatial and temporal patterns of connectivity between aquatic habitats will contribute to improved snail surveillance and more focused control for urinary schistosomiasis at a local level.

Animals↗
PubMed2002

Space and the persistence of male-killing endosymbionts in insect populations.

Male-killing bacteria are bacteria that are transmitted vertically through the females of their insect hosts. They can distort the sex ratio of their hosts by killing infected male offspring. In nature, male-killing endosymbionts (male killers) often have a 100% efficient vertical transmission, and multiple male-killing bacteria infecting a single population are observed. We use different model formalisms to study these observations. In mean-field models a male killer with perfect transmission drives the host population to extinction, and coexistence between multiple male killers within one population is impossible; however, in spatially explicit models, both phenomena are readily observed. We show how the spatial pattern formation underlies these results. In the case of high transmission efficiencies, waves with a high density of male killers alternate with waves of mainly wild-type hosts. The male killers cause local extinction, but this creates an opportunity for uninfected hosts to re-invade these areas. Spatial pattern formation also creates an opportunity for two male killers to coexist within one population: different strains create spatial regions that are qualitatively different; these areas then serve as different niches, making coexistence possible.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Analysis of neighborhood dynamics of forest ecosystems using likelihood methods and modeling.

Advances in computing power in the past 20 years have led to a proliferation of spatially explicit, individual-based models of population and ecosystem dynamics. In forest ecosystems, the individual-based models encapsulate an emerging theory of "neighborhood" dynamics, in which fine-scale spatial interactions regulate the demography of component tree species. The spatial distribution of component species, in turn, regulates spatial variation in a whole host of community and ecosystem properties, with subsequent feedbacks on component species. The development of these models has been facilitated by development of new methods of analysis of field data, in which critical demographic rates and ecosystem processes are analyzed in terms of the spatial distributions of neighboring trees and physical environmental factors. The analyses are based on likelihood methods and information theory, and they allow a tight linkage between the models and explicit parameterization of the models from field data. Maximum likelihood methods have a long history of use for point and interval estimation in statistics. In contrast, likelihood principles have only more gradually emerged in ecology as the foundation for an alternative to traditional hypothesis testing. The alternative framework stresses the process of identifying and selecting among competing models, or in the simplest case, among competing point estimates of a parameter of a model. There are four general steps involved in a likelihood analysis: (1) model specification, (2) parameter estimation using maximum likelihood methods, (3) model comparison, and (4) model evaluation. Our goal in this paper is to review recent developments in the use of likelihood methods and modeling for the analysis of neighborhood processes in forest ecosystems. We will focus on a single class of processes, seed dispersal and seedling dispersion, because recent papers provide compelling evidence of the potential power of the approach, and illustrate some of the statistical challenges in applying the methods.

Computer Simulation↗