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PubMed1985

Prognostic significance of stratification systems in multiple myeloma. I. Risk categories (good and poor risk).

A group of 193 patients with multiple myeloma (MM) consisting of cases treated only symptomatically or by nonsystematic therapy with Cyclophosphamide or Melphalan (1959-76), and of patients given systematic polychemotherapy with intensive supportive treatment (1976-84) were subjected to prognostic analysis of the importance of MM stratification into two categories, poor and good risk. The evaluation included only hitherto untreated patients with MM of the IgG, IgA, and Bence-Jones' types. All the three evaluated stratification systems (ALGB, NCI-SECSG and CALGB) were found in the present study to show a good, equally significant relation to the prognosis of the disease. The survival median of poor risk patients in terms of the used classification system for the 1959-76 subgroup was 5-6 months, for the 1976-84 subgroup 20-22 months. In the good risk category it was 24-27 months in the 1959-76 subgroup and 47-50 months in the 1976-84 subgroup. Permanent validity of the initial prognosis and in the poor risk category safe coverage of patients with a high risk of early death was proved. Good agreement of the studied stratification systems with the clinical staging system of Durie and Salmon [14] (most of the Stage III patients consisted of poor risk patients) was recorded, which, however, was not the case with the staging system of Merlini, Waldenström and Jayakar [27]. The CALGB system is considered the most suited to the needs of clinical practice.

Adult↗

PubMed2004

[Old and new scoring systems for assessing cardiovascular risks: problems with the validity, the precision and the homogenicity of the risk categories].

Scoring systems for cardiovascular-risk assessment are increasingly being used to identify patients suitable for primary prevention measures. However, the quality of risk-score systems is threatened by (a) external invalidity, which can be partly compensated for by calibration of the score, (b) risk-score model imprecision, reflected by wide confidence intervals for the risk estimate, and (c) risk-category heterogeneity resulting from the random spread of known and unknown risk factors that are unaccounted for in the scoring system. The commonly used Framingham risk score is limited by imprecision and marked risk-category heterogeneity. The recently published SCORE risk model is probably more precise, but lacks homogenous risk categories. To prevent large scale undertreatment of patients at high cardiovascular risk, the commonly used risk threshold for initiating primary preventative treatment should be lowered.

Cardiovascular Diseases↗

PubMed2005

Childhood risk categories for adolescent substance involvement: a general liability typology.

Childhood risks for adolescent substance involvement include parental substance use disorders (SUDs), psychological dysregulation and early tobacco and alcohol experimentation. This study was designed to identify childhood risk categories predicting accelerated adolescent substance involvement across drug types and stages. The index subjects were 560 children recruited from high risk (n = 266) or low risk (n = 294) families based on fathers' SUDs. Assessments were conducted at approximately ages 11 (baseline), 13, 16, and 19 years. Childhood predictors included parent SUDs, early tobacco or alcohol use (i.e., substance use), and neurobehavior disinhibition (ND) as determined by indicators of cognitive, affective and behavioral disinhibition. A cluster analysis defined five risk categories based on baseline characteristics as follows: (1) High (n = 31; 100% had both parents with SUDs, 100% had early substance use, and the mean ND score = 58.9); (2) Intermediate-High (n = 76; 45% had one parent with SUD, 100% early substance use and ND = 51.9); (3) Intermediate (n = 76; 100% both parents with SUDs, 0% early substance use and ND = 51.4); (4) Intermediate-Low (n = 161; 100% with one SUD parent; 0% early substance use and ND = 49.9) and; (5) Low (n = 216; no parental SUD, no early substance use and ND = 47.5). Compared with all other groups, children in the High risk group had significantly accelerated substance involvement across all substance types and stages. The ordering of risk categories from low to high was also consistent for all substance involvement outcomes. The findings indicate that these five risk categories constitute general liability classes for adolescent substance involvement, and may identify homogeneous groups of children requiring distinct preventive interventions.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1997

Features and outcome of Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia according to risk category for HIV infection.

A retrospective study of Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP) was undertaken to examine differences between the presentation and outcome of PCP in AIDS patients from different risk categories for HIV infection. There were 176 PCP episodes recorded in 126 patients from the following risk categories: 69 intravenous drug misusers (IDMs), 36 homosexually infected men and 21 heterosexually infected patients. Most clinical features did not differ significantly between the 3 groups but hypercapnia was almost exclusively seen in IDMs and, if recorded, was associated with a poorer survival. Pneumothorax was more likely to complicate PCP in IDMs and, although present in all groups, concomitant bacterial respiratory infections were more common in IDMs. Recovery from PCP and the incidence of adverse events during treatment did not differ according to risk category. Subsequent survival time was shorter amongst IDMs, but the uptake of antiretrovirals in this group was significantly lower. We conclude that there are few differences in the presentation of PCP between IDMs and other risk categories for HIV infection and that these do not influence the outcomes of illness. The lower post-PCP survival in IDMs can be accounted for by a reduced uptake of antiretroviral drugs by this group.

AIDS-Related Opportunistic Infections↗

PubMed1996

Comparison of trends in HIV infection for two risk categories.

Sensible plans for health-care needs and determination of priorities for expenditure require regular assessment of trends in HIV incidences. In particular, trends in the relative HIV incidences of different risk categories are useful when assessing whether current control strategies are working equally well for all risk categories. Here five tests for such trends are proposed for the analysis of AIDS incidence data and their performances are compared by a simulation study, assuming a log-linear trend in the HIV incidences for two risk categories. A convenient test based on a log-linear model for AIDS incidences is found both effective and robust to the nature of the underlying trend. The maximum likelihood estimate of the trend parameter is found stable even though estimates of other HIV incidence parameters are unstable. Smoothing of estimates of the other HIV incidence parameters is recommended because this dramatically reduces the rate of convergence of the iterative methods used to obtain the estimates.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

PubMed2026

Effects of intensive blood pressure control on cardio-kidney outcomes by KDIGO risk categories: a Post Hoc analysis of ACCORD-BP and SPRINT trials.

The effects of intensive systolic blood pressure (SBP) control on cardiovascular (CV) and kidney outcomes across different Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) risk categories remain unclear. We performed a secondary analysis of the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) and the SPRINT-eligible Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes Blood Pressure (ACCORD-BP) trial. Participants were categorized into low, moderate, and high/very-high KDIGO risk groups. The primary outcomes were composite adverse CV events (defined as nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), nonfatal stroke, fatal or hospitalized heart failure (HF), and CV mortality) and composite adverse kidney events (defined as a sustained decline in eGFR of ≥ 40% and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD)). We found that intensive BP control reduced the risk of composite CV events (HR 0.68; 95% CI 0.59-0.78), with attenuated benefits in higher KDIGO risk categories (P for interaction = 0.055). This interaction was mainly driven by nonfatal MI and fatal or hospitalized HF (both P for interaction < 0.05). Intensive BP control increased the risk of composite kidney events (HR 1.88; 95% CI 1.52-2.33), mainly in low- and moderate-risk groups rather than in high/very-high risk groups (P for interaction = 0.04). Similar patterns were observed for sustained eGFR decline (P for interaction = 0.03), but not for ESKD (HR 1.05; 95% CI 0.74-1.48; P for interaction = 0.71). The KDIGO risk classification modified the effects of intensive BP control. Balancing CV benefits against potential kidney impacts in patients with different KDIGO risks during intensive BP treatment is recommended. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifiers: NCT01206062 (SPRINT) and NCT00000620 (ACCORD).

Cardiovascular outcome↗

PubMed1989

Postoperative surveillance of colorectal cancer according to risk category.

Over about a 7-year period, 138 colorectal cancer patients undergoing potentially curative surgery were prospectively entered into postoperative surveillance programs that differed according to risk category. Of the 138 patients, 28 (20%) have been lost to follow-up. Of the 110 remaining patients, thirty (27.3%) were classified as low risk cases since they had stage A-B1, well differentiated tumors (G1) primary tumors with preoperative CEA values of less than 7.5 ng/ml (group 1) and the remaining 80 patients (72.7%) were considered high risk cases (group 2). Overall 5 year survival was 64.5%; group 1 patients had a significantly better 5-year survival rate (90%) as compared to group 2 patients (55%) (p less than 0.01). Of the 20 asymptomatic patients with distant metastases only 4 (20%) underwent potentially curative surgery, whereas of 13 asymptomatic patients who recurred locally surgery was undertaken in 9 (69%) (p less than 0.05). At 5 years from the diagnosis of local recurrence, 5 of 11 patients (45.4%) who underwent curative second-look surgery are still alive. The survival of low risk patients was not negatively influenced by less frequent follow-up. Endoscopy and echotomograms were the most useful diagnostic tools in detecting early local anastomotic recurrence and hepatic metastases, respectively. Individualized follow-up programs for various risk categories of colorectal cancer patients are recommended.

Adult↗

PubMed2006

Use of Project Liberty counseling services over time by individuals in various risk categories.

OBJECTIVE: The authors examined temporal changes in the rates at which people sought access to Project Liberty services after the attacks of September 11, 2001, according to risk category (family of missing or deceased, persons directly affected, uniformed personnel, other rescue or recovery workers, schoolchildren, displaced employed and unemployed workers, persons with disabilities, and the general population). METHODS: First visits to individual counseling services, as determined from logs of 465,428 service encounters, were proportioned among risk categories and plotted across 27 months. RESULTS: Individuals who lost family members accounted for 40 percent of visits in the first month but dropped to 5 percent or fewer visits by five months. Uniformed personnel used disproportionately larger percentages of services after the first year. Occupationally displaced and unemployed workers sought counseling at relatively steady rates. CONCLUSIONS: Postdisaster counseling should be made available for extended periods, with shifting emphases to meet the changing needs of high-risk groups.

Adult↗

PubMed2006

Correlation between molecular metastases in sentinel lymph nodes of breast cancer patients and St Gallen risk category.

AIMS: To evaluate the clinical significance of tumour metastases detected using real-time reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR) in sentinel lymph nodes (SLN) of breast cancer patients. METHODS: Sixty-seven patients with T1-T2 primary breast cancer were included in a prospective study. SLN were analysed for the presence of metastatic tumour cells using standard histopathology staining, immunochemistry (IHC) and multimarker real-time RT-PCR assay for mammaglobin (MMG), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and cytokeratin-19 (CK19) mRNA expression. Correlations between molecular metastases and traditional clinicopathological prognostic factors, including St Gallen risk categories were studied. RESULTS: Of the 67 patients, 15 (22.3%) had one or more pathology-positive SLN. Five (9.6%) pathology-negative SLN were positive by IHC and 19 (36.5%) by RT-PCR. Of note, RT-PCR analysis was also positive in all cases with pathology- or IHC-positive SLN. MMG was the most informative tumour marker in the panel. Molecularly detected metastases were significantly associated with intermediate St Gallen risk category (p=0.023). CONCLUSION: Molecular staging of SLN using real-time RT-PCR for early breast cancer could serve as a useful complement to standard clinicopathological risk factors. Studies with long-term follow-up are necessary to define the impact of molecular metastases on disease free survival and overall survival.

Adult↗

PubMed1996

Efficacy of fetal echocardiography and yield by risk category.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the efficacy and yield of tertiary center fetal echocardiography for different high-risk groups. METHODS: Between January 1, 1982, and January 1, 1994, scans for anomalies were performed on 3246 women at increased risk for congenital heart disease in their offspring. Gestational age was 16-25 weeks in 83%. Maternal and gestational age as well as prenatal and postnatal diagnosis were recorded, and follow-up was sought for all pregnancies. By comparing prenatal and postnatal diagnoses, sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values were estimated. Multiple logistic regression was applied to establish the relative yield within the high-risk group. RESULTS: Follow-up was available in 3223 cases (99%). In a separate validation study of 777 women for whom a second set of follow-up data was requested, no additional anomalies were revealed. In total, 20 of 47 cases of cardiac malformations were detected (sensitivity 43%). When taking into account cases that remained undetected because of unfavorable scanning conditions (ie, minute size of the anomaly, awkward fetal position, or severe maternal obesity), the sensitivity for congenital heart disease rose to 51%. Specificity and predictive values were high (above 95%). The relative yield across the high-risk group appeared to be high for parental congenital heart disease and maternal diabetes mellitus, whereas a previous infant or other relatives affected, maternal anti-epileptic drug use, maternal drug abuse, and other reasons for referral each had an estimated yield approximately equal to the prevalence of congenital heart disease in the general population (0.8%). CONCLUSION: Fetal echocardiography for known increased risk appears to be moderately effective. Clear differences in yield are present across currently accepted risk categories.

Adult↗

PubMed1999

Herpes zoster: risk categories for persistent pain.

Acute neuritis and persistent pain are the most significant clinical manifestations of herpes zoster and are end points for clinical trials therapy. In an acyclovir and prednisone study, patients were categorized according to pain severity and number of lesions at presentation. Risk categories were defined according to the magnitude of risk ratios (RRs) and a comparison of Kaplan-Meier survival estimates. For acute neuritis and zoster-associated pain, RRs defined rate of resolution. Patients who presented with severe or incapacitating pain and a large number of lesions were less likely to achieve resolution of both acute neuritis and zoster-associated pain (RR, 18.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 6. 6-48.6, and RR, 5.3; 95% CI, 4.2-17.2, respectively). These analyses identify the subgroups of patients for whom aggressive interventions are most strongly indicated.

Activities of Daily Living↗

PubMed2004

The sociodemographic profile, risk categories and prevalence of HIV infection among people attending a London same-day testing clinic, 2000-2001.

The objectives were to determine the sociodemographic profile, risk category, and prevalence of HIV infection amongst people attending a confidential clinic providing counselling, medical advice and results of HIV antibody testing on the same day of consultation. Data were collected on all 1749 individuals attending the same-day HIV testing clinic at the Royal Free Hospital, London and proceeding to HIV testing between June 2000 and May 2001. One thousand, one hundred and forty-eight men and 601 women (mean age 33.3 years) were tested for HIV antibodies. The primary risk for HIV infection was heterosexual contact (69.9%; 1224/1749) and homosexual contact (27.7%; 485/1749). Fifty individuals tested HIV-positive (42 men and eight women). HIV seroprevalence was 2.8% (50/1749) and was highest among men who reported risk through homosexual contact (6.2%; 30/485). The rates for heterosexual men and women were 1.8% (12/648) and 1.4% (8/576), respectively, though they were highest among Black Caribbean (12%; 3/25) and Black African attendees from sub-Saharan African countries (11.2%; 18/160). Of the total number attending the clinic, more than half (56%; 981/1749) had previously been tested and received a negative test result. Of the fifty HIV antibody-positive individuals, 26%, (13) had previously received a negative result and had all reported risk through homosexual contact. Thirty of the HIV antibody-positive individuals were asymptomatic, 14 were symptomatic and three were diagnosed with an AIDS-defining condition. Half of all HIV-positive attendees (51.2%; 22/43) presented at the time of testing with CD4 cell counts below the normal range (>400x10(6)/l). The high HIV seroprevalence among homosexual men, some of whom had previously tested negative, suggests that HIV prevention strategies used within this group may need to be reassessed. The continuing high HIV seroprevalence among individuals from African countries suggests that this population require specific targeting for HIV risk reduction and information on the advantages of early diagnosis and treatment.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1985

Multivariate survival analysis for the assessment of prognostic factors and risk categories after recovery from acute myocardial infarction: the Belgian situation.

Twenty-one and a half per cent of the patients with acute myocardial infarction, admitted consecutively to the coronary care unit of the University Hospitals of Leuven in the period 1973-1979, died within 28 days. The 1,669 who recovered were followed between three and nine years. The mortality rate was 13.1% during the first year and fell to below 5% in the succeeding yearly intervals. Univariate and life table analysis were performed on noninvasive, clinical data collected during the coronary care unit stay for the total population and various subgroups. The Cox proportional hazards model was applied to the data in order to determine the prognostic factors for long-term survival. Of the 34 initially selected variables, the most dominant factors were age, Killip class III and IV, peripheral vascular disease, abnormal chest x-ray findings, previous infarction, and the use of digitalis or diuretics. The model, which was validated extensively, allowed the establishment of risk categories. Mortality five years after the acute event was 8.2 times more frequent in the highest risk quintile than in the lowest one. From this study one may conclude that multivariate techniques based on noninvasive variables collected during the coronary care unit stay are valuable for the determination of the long-term prognosis of patients with myocardial infarction.

Actuarial Analysis↗

PubMed2000

Middle-aged men--a risk category regarding fatal poisoning due to dextropropoxyphene and alcohol in combination.

BACKGROUND: Dextropropoxyphene (DXP) toxicity is highly potentiated by alcohol and the aim of this study was to determine the characteristics of non-suicidal deceased with simultaneous occurrence of alcohol and DXP in the blood. METHODS: The investigated population was based on the total medico-legal autopsy material in Sweden during the years 1992-1996. Toxicological analyses and death certificates were examined. RESULTS: Simultaneous occurrence of DXP and alcohol was detected in 425 cases. The mean blood alcohol concentration was 0.14%. One-third had a blood alcohol concentration >;0.20% and 42%, <0.1%. The majority of the cases were found between the ages 30 and 59 years;, 71% were male and 29% were female. Notes on alcoholism were found in 16% of the cases. CONCLUSION: Middle-aged, habitual or social-drinking men, on medication for pain, are most prone to combine DXP and alcohol and are most vulnerable to be victims of accidental poisoning due to the combination of DXP and alcohol. We propose strict regulations in prescription, or even a ban on prescription of DXP, and that physicians in the meantime pay extra attention to this risk category of patients and make sure that the patient is well informed of the life-threatening risks of simultaneous use of DXP and alcohol.

Accidents↗

PubMed2005

The RACHS-1 risk categories reflect mortality and length of stay in a Danish population of children operated for congenital heart disease.

OBJECTIVE: The Risk Adjusted classification for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) was created in order to compare in-hospital mortality for groups of children undergoing surgery for congenital heart disease. The method was evaluated with two large multi-institutional data sets-the Paediatric Cardiac Care Consortium (PCCC) and Hospital Discharge (HD) data from three states in the USA. The RACHS-1 classification was later applied to a large German paediatric cardiac surgery population in Bad Oeynhausen (BO), where it was found that the RACHS-1 categories were also associated with length of stay. We applied the RACHS-1 classification to the 957 operations performed during January 1996 to December 2002 at Skejby Sygehus, Denmark and we examined the association between the RACHS-1 categories, in-hospital mortality and length of stay in the Intensive Care Unit. METHODS: The operations were classified according to the six RACHS-1 categories by matching the procedure of each patient with a risk category. The ability of the RACHS-1 classification to predict mortality in our population was examined by estimating the area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve. Likelihood ratio chi(2) tests were used to compare the distribution of RACHS-1 categories and the distribution of mortality with PCCC, HD and BO. Linear regression was used to examine the correlation between the RACHS-1 categories and length of stay in the Intensive Care Unit. RESULTS: The RACHS-1 category frequencies in our population were: category 1: 18.4%, category 2: 37.4%, category 3: 34.6%, category 4: 8.2%, category 5: 0% and category 6: 1.5%. The overall ability of the RACHS-1 classification to predict in-hospital mortality (area under the ROC curve 0.741; 95% confidence interval=0.690; 0.791) was equal to the findings from larger populations. We found no differences in the category specific mortality when comparing with the larger reported series. There was a positive association between RACHS-1 category and length of stay in the Intensive Care Unit. CONCLUSIONS: The RACHS-1 classification can also be used to predict in-hospital mortality and length of stay in the Intensive Care Unit in a small volume centre.

Body Weight↗

PubMed2006

Another look at interpreting risk categories.

Several studies over the past decade have shown that simple rating scales can accurately rank sex offenders' long-term risk of recidivism. But when using these scales as prediction tools, evaluators often wish to translate categories of risk into probabilities of recidivism. D. M. Doren (2004) has recently suggested that evaluators may use the recidivism percentages published in original studies of the RRASOR and STATIC-99 without regard to differences in populations or base rates. This article explains why Doren's computations should lead to a different conclusion, and describes how simply comparing percentages across studies can mislead researchers and clinicians. Instead, investigators should isolate and examine the detection properties of risk assessment instruments alone, independent of the population- or setting-specific base rate. This article explains this process, using an imaginary study to illustrate how base rates and the properties of risk assessment instruments yield estimated probabilities of recidivism. The article also shows why Doren's results imply that the percentages of recidivism associated with scores on the RRASOR and STATIC-99 scores may vary across study populations. The article offers recommendations for researchers who design and evaluate actuarial methods of assessing risk and for clinicians who interpret results from risk assessment instruments.

Actuarial Analysis↗

PubMed2004

The RACHS-1 risk categories reflect mortality and length of hospital stay in a large German pediatric cardiac surgery population.

OBJECTIVES: The Risk Adjusted classification for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) was published in January 2002, based on 4370 operations registered by the Pediatric Cardiac Care Consortium. It is designed for being easily applicable also for retrospective analysis of hospital discharge data sets; the classification was not developed for patients with heart transplantations, ventricular assist devices or patients above 18 years. We apply this classification to our 2368 correspondent procedures that were performed consecutively on 2223 patients between June 1996 and October 2002 in Bad Oeynhausen and analyze its relation to mortality and length of hospital stay. METHODS: The procedures were grouped by the 6 RACHS-1 categories. Groping criteria were mainly the performed procedures; for few procedures age or diagnoses are needed in addition. The classification process itself took less than 10 working hours. Risk group frequencies in our/ the PCCC population were 1: 368/964 (15.5%/22.0%), 2: 831/1433 (35.1%/33.1%), 3: 744/1523 (31.4%/34.7%), 4: 284/276 (12.0%/6.3%), 5: 4/4 (0.2%/0.1%), 6: 137/168 (5.3%/3.8%). 18.8%/19.2% were under 1 month, 37.5%/31.6% 1-12 months of age, respectively. RESULTS: Hospital mortality (%) in our population/ the PCCC Group 1-6 was: 0.3/0.4, 4.0/3.8, 5.6/8.5, 9.9/19.4, 50.0/0, 40.1/47.7%. Geometric means of total (13.1, 19.6, 23.5, 29.1, 31.5, 52.6 days, respectively) and postoperative length of stay of survivors show significant differences between the single risk groups. The prediction capacity of the score as expressed by the area under the receiver-operator curve was nearly equal to the value found for the American hospital discharge data sets. Length of stay rises exponentially with the RACHS-1 category. However, the RACHS-1 category explains only 13.5% of the total and 16.8% of individual postoperative lengths of hospital stay in survivors. CONCLUSION: The RACHS-1 classification is applicable to European pediatric populations, too. Category Distribution, outcome class distinction capacity, distribution and mortality are similar. RACHS-1 is able to classify patients into significantly different groups concerning total and postoperative hospital stay duration, although there remains a large variability within the groups.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1993

Is age less than 1 year a high-risk category for orthotopic liver transplantation?

The aim of this study was to determine if age less than 1 year is a high risk group for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). Retrospective analysis was done of patients with liver failure who received OLT. Comparison was made between patients aged < 1 year and > 1 year with regard to survival, allograft survival, hepatic artery thrombosis, and medical status at OLT. Between January 1, 1987 and September 30, 1991, 46 children received OLT. Fifteen (35%) were < 1 year (average age, 7.93 months). Survival in children < 1 year was 80% and children > 1 year was 91%. Allograft survival in children < 1 year was 57% (21 allografts required for 12 survivors) and 78% in children > 1 year (37 allografts required for 29 survivors). Retransplantation was required in 5 of 15 children < 1 year (33%) and in 5 of 29 children (17%) > 1 year. Medical status in children < 1 year was similar to medical status in children > 1 year at the time of transplant. Children with chronic stable liver disease represented 60% of children < 1 year and 60.1% of children > 1 year. Children requiring hospitalization represented 26% of children < 1 year and 29% of children > 1 year. Children in intensive care represented 13% of children < 1 year and 11% of children > 1 year. Survival for all status groups was similar. Hepatic artery thrombosis occurred in one child < 1 year and in 2 children > 1 year. No statistical difference (chi 2 analysis) was found by age between the categories evaluated.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Biliary Atresia↗