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Some statistical analysis issues at the World Fertility Survey.

"The World Fertility Survey carried out cross-sectional probability surveys of fertility in more than 40 developing countries between 1972 and 1984. Statistical issues in regression analysis of the data are reviewed, including treatment of interactions, the selection of regressor variables, and appropriate linear models for rate variables. Similar issues arise in many other applications of regression to observational data."

Birth Rate↗

The contribution of the World Fertility Surveys to an understanding of the relationship between women's work and fertility.

A consistent negative association between women's paid work and fertility in developed countries has emerged from many years of research. Results from research in developing countries are more ambiguous, with as many examples of a positive association as of a negative one. Lack of data comparability has often hampered interpretation of results. The World Fertility Surveys (WFS)--undertaken in 40 developing countries between 1974-81, using a common core questionnaire that included numerous questions on women's work--have created a unique opportunity to evaluate this association in a comparative framework. This article reviews and interprets the major findings on the work-fertility relationship from this and other published research on women's work and fertility, and assesses the data limitations. The article concludes with recommendations for the treatment of women's work in the design of future fertility and family planning surveys.

Adolescent↗

The World Fertility Survey: an appraisal of methodology.

"In the first half of the article, a broad account of content and procedures is given. In conduct of individual surveys, the achievements of the World Fertility Survey were based on thoroughness rather than technical superiority. The later aspects of the program, including analysis, archiving, and data dissemination, were more innovative and represent models of excellence for similar future enquiries. In overall terms, the program is judged to be an expensive success. In the second half of the article, two methodological issues are discussed in more detail: the collection of retrospective birth histories and the translation of survey instruments into local languages." Comments by Anthony G. Turner (pp. 768-9), Kweku T. de Graft-Johnson (pp. 769-70), Burton Singer (pp. 771-2), and Joel E. Cohen (pp. 772-4) are appended.

Birth Rate↗

Tunisia WFS [World Fertility Survey].

Tunisia, the smallest North African country in size, has recently published the results of its part of the World Fertility Survey (WFS) taken in 1978. About 1/2 of this Missouri-sized country consists of arid and semiarid desert, with well-irrigated fertile areas in the north. The country, which has a population of about 7 million, must import large quantities of food each year and also suffers from widespread unemployment. In 1964, the government was among the earliest to announce a policy to reduce the rate of population growth and Tunisia now has 1 of the lowest birth rates of the African continent (33 births/1000 population) although it is still moderately high. Part of the reason for the birth rate decline has been a risking age at marriage; the legal minimum was fixed at 17 years for women and 20 for men by a 1964 law. The Tunisia WFS indicates that, of women 20-24 in 1978, 56% had not yet married, a large increase from the 27% of 1966. The mean age at 1st marriage for females was 24 in 1978, very high by less developed country standards. It may be that the fertility-lowering impetus from rising age at marriage has been spent (this measure cannot rise indefinitely): Tunisia's total fertility rate (TFR), the average number of children/woman, dropped from 7.1 children in 1966 to 5.7 in 1976, but the decrease has tapered off somewhat since. The TFR appears to have dropped to 5.2 as of 1981. When asked how many children they would like to have, the women surveyed gave 4.2 children, on average, as their "ideal" number. This number is, of course, considerably above that needed to ultimately stop population growth (about 2.1-2.5 children/woman). Contraceptive use in Tunisia is quite high by developing country standards; much of this is due to the efficient network of government-sponsored clinics. About 44% of the women exposed to pregnancy were practicing an efficient form of family planning with the pill or sterilization accounting for most of that number (22 and 20% respectively). Nonetheless, traditions which still favor 3-5 children and some possible loss of momentum from a rising age at marriage may cause future fertility declines to be slower than in the recent past. Tunisia does present an interesting case of a country maintaining a government program to reduce population growth as an overall part of the country's development efforts.

Africa↗

The World Fertility Survey and Contraceptive Prevalence Surveys: a comparison of substantive results.

This paper deals with the findings of the World Fertility Survey (WFS) and Contraceptive Prevalence Surveys (CPSs) in five areas of common interest: fertility, contraceptive use, measuring the effect of the availability of contraceptives on levels of use, the unmet need for family planning services, and breastfeeding. The comparisons have several implications for those designing surveys of fertility and family planning in developing countries, among them, that women should be asked for the dates of at least their last two births (not just the last birth as in the CPSs) in order to ensure accurate estimates of fertility and duration of breastfeeding.

Adolescent↗

Collecting data on pregnancy loss: a review of evidence from the World Fertility Survey.

Estimates of levels and differentials of pregnancy loss are presented for 40 developing countries participating in the World Fertility Survey (WFS) program. Judged against agreed-upon levels of spontaneous loss in human populations, WFS surveys measured from 50 to 80 percent of recognizable losses. The coverage of induced abortions appears to be much worse. Consistent with data from other sources and settings, the probability of loss is strongly correlated with maternal demographic characteristics: age, pregnancy order, pregnancy spacing, and pregnancy loss history. Despite incomplete coverage, the WFS data on pregnancy loss provide considerable, and largely unexploited, insight on the dynamics of the reproductive career.

Data Collection↗