[Age-specific fertility rates and total fertility rates for selected countries: latest available years].
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In this paper we present the accurate estimation of total fertility rates, prove the theorem of upper and lower bounds of double-edged limit and provide the formulas of upper and lower bounds of total fertility rates. Based on these estimations and statistical data, we calculate the upper and lower bounds of the double-edged limit for 46 countries including China. Furthermore, we describe the positive growth rate, negative growth rate and zero growth rate of population development. These results are of great importance for us to control population not only in theory but also in practice.
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"Due to an almost overall decrease during the last four decades total (period) fertility rates have reached values below the replacement level of 2.07 in most European countries. Only in Albania (2.8 in 1991), on the Faroe Islands (2.7 in 1990) and Iceland (2.3 in 1992) the last known values are higher. In most other European countries values between 1.4 and 2.0 are registered, but in Italy, Spain and Germany the TFR is about 1.2. Especially in the former German Democratic Republic (0.7), San Marino and most northern Italian regions (1.0) the TFR is low." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
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Our sensitivity analysis shows that the adjusted TFR'(t) using the formula of Bongaarts and Feeney (1998), which assumes an invariant shape for the fertility schedule, usually does not differ significantly from an adjusted TFR"(t) that allows the shape of the fertility schedule to change at a constant annual rate. Because annual changes in the shape of the fertility schedules often are approximately constant except in abnormal conditions, the Bongaarts-Feeney (B-F) method is generally robust for producing reasonable estimates of the adjusted TFR'(t). The adjusted TFR'(t) neither represents any real cohort experiences from the past nor forecasts any future trend. It merely provides an improved reading of the period fertility measure, which reduces the tempo distortion.
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"Conversion of the Princeton fertility indices into more frequently employed units of measure, such as TFR and its components, can make information on historical times easier to grasp. But the resulting indicators are only estimates, which will be accurate if the underlying assumptions hold, and otherwise may deviate from reality."
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