[Analysis of population growth and population controll in Bangladesh (author's transl)].
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Bangladesh↗
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Anthropological perspectives on population growth.
Rapid population growth affects many different system levels simultaneously: the individual, the family, the community, the nation-state and the world. What may appear to be an optimal population level for one system, given certain value premises, may not be optimal for another. Anthropologists can contribute to an understanding of rapid growth by generating an appreciation for the complexity of the phenomenon, and by providing representation for a range of cultural viewpoints. This may help to reduce the risk we now run of committing all of mankind to a singular path which may prove to be an evolutionary dead end.
Crowding↗
Gonococcal infection, infertility, and population growth: I. Endemic states in behaviourally homogeneous growing populations.
Sexually transmitted diseases such as gonorrhoea are a significant cause of infertility in women when the infection is untreated. They have the potential to alter human population growth rates in many developing countries where sexually transmitted diseases are prevalent due to limited public health facilities for diagnosis and treatment. The authors develop a simple model describing the conditions under which such a disease can exist in a growing population in which sexual partners are chosen at random by proportionate mixing. Using the model, the impact that such a disease could have for a range of possible parameters is examined. Then a full parameter set for gonorrhoea in a developing country is estimated. Analysis demonstrates the significant influence gonococcal infection may have in reducing population growth rate in some communities. For example, the simple model predicts that a prevalence of 20% in sexually active adults results in a 50% reduction in the population growth rate. Finally, the authors discuss how potential control initiatives may change the parameter values that determine transmission and alter the demographic impact of gonorrhoea.
Africa↗
Patterns of suburban population growth, 1970--75.
Population redistribution within U.S. suburban rings between 1970 and 1975 was characterized by frequent population declines for individual suburbs. On the whole, recent spatial patterns of suburban population decline are similar in nature, if not overall levels, to those found in the 1950s and 1960s. Population decline is greatest in the inner suburbs, and is also evident, to some extent, in the most peripheral suburbs. Patterns for all metropolitan areas mask clear variation among metropolitan areas. This variation is related to metropolitan age or historical period of development.
Employment↗
Population growth. Implications and problems.
Population growth in the twentieth century is at its highest level in history, with the world's population now doubling in approximately 40 years. An unprecedented 90 million people are being added worldwide each year, with most of the growth taking place in the developing world. The implications of this rate of growth are discussed, as are some of the program efforts underway to decrease the rate of increase.
Age Factors↗
The malaria burden and population growth in the Solomon Islands.
This paper outlines the result of the control of infectious diseases, and more especially malaria, on the growth of populations in the Solomon Islands since 1931, the year of the first census, to 1976, the year in which the fourth census revealed, that a population explosion had occurred, and was occurring unabated.
Adolescent↗
Rapid population growth and environmental stress.
It is often suggested that rapid population growth, especially in developing countries, correspondingly intensifies environmental degradation, which must therefore be mitigated by reducing the rate of population growth. The validity of this assumption can be tested by means of an algebraic identity that relates the amount of a pollutant introduced into the environment to the product of three factors: population, "affluence" (the amount of goods produced per capita), and "technology" (the ratio of pollution generated to goods produced). For several forms of pollution that have a known origin in a specific production process (electricity production, use of motor vehicles, and consumption of inorganic nitrogen fertilizer), it is possible to compare the inferred rate of increase in pollution levels with the rate of population growth in developing countries. The results show that the rate of increase in pollution is largely determined by the technology factor, which governs the amount of pollution generated per unit of goods produced or consumed. This observation extends earlier evidence that both the increasing levels of pollution observed in developed countries and the results of efforts to reduce them support the view that the decisive factor determining environmental quality is the nature of the technology of production, rather than the size of the population.
Developing Countries↗
Comparison of logistic equations for population growth.
Two different forms of the logistic equation for population growth appear in the ecological literature. In the form of the logistic equation that appears in recent ecology textbooks the parameters are the instantaneous rate of natural increase per individual and the carrying capacity of the environment. In the form of the logistic equation that appears in some older literature the parameters are the instantaneous birth rate per individual and the carrying capacity. The decision whether to use one form or the other depends on which form of the equation is biologically more realistic. In this study the form of the logistic equation in which the instantaneous birth rate per individual is a parameter is shown to be more realistic in terms of the birth and death processes of population growth. Application of the logistic equation to calculate yield from an exploited fish population also shows that the parameters must be the instantaneous birth rate per individual and the carrying capacity.
Mathematics↗
Patterns in the effects of infectious diseases on population growth.
An infectious disease may reduce or even stop the exponential growth of a population. We consider two very simple models for microparasitic and macroparasitic diseases, respectively, and study how the effect depends on a contact parameter kappa. The results are presented as bifurcation diagrams involving several threshold values of kappa. The precise form of the bifurcation diagram depends critically on a second parameter xi, measuring the influence of the disease on the fertility of the hosts. A striking outcome of the analysis is that for certain ranges of parameter values bistable behaviour occurs: either the population grows exponentially or it oscillates periodically with large amplitude.
Birth Rate↗
A true rate of population growth--Lotka's intrinsic rate of natural increase revisited.
In this paper, Lotka's intrinsic rate of current population growth is evaluated. A new method of computing the net reproduction rate and a new rate of population growth are proposed. The proposed rate is the rate of growth of the female population per woman per year. The rate is positive, equal to zero, or negative as a population is increasing, remaining stationary, or decreasing. The rate for the 1987 U.S. white female population was R = -0.0037. This means that the white population was decreasing in 1987 and was losing 3.7 females for every 1000 women per year.
Female↗
Stagnation in the decline of the world population growth rate during the 1980s.
The world human population growth rate after World War II passed through three phases: the rise in the 1950s and 1960s, the fall (though still at a positive level) in the 1970s, and the plateau in the 1980s. The rise was produced by the global decline in death rates, the fall was mainly due to the reduction of fertility in a number of developing countries, and the stagnation of growth rate decline was attributable to three major factors. First, substantial fertility declines started around 1970 and stalled around 1980 in both China and India. Second, the age structure of population changed in favor of higher birth rates. Third, although fertility started to decline significantly around 1970 mainly in East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, few countries have begun fertility declines since then. Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia have not started substantial fertility reductions, deepening the gap between developing countries that are moving to lower fertility levels and those that are left behind.
Age Factors↗
The pattern of population growth as a function of redundancy and repair.
A basic model of hierarchical structure, expressed by simple, linear differential equations, shows that the pattern of population growth is essentially determined by conditions of redundancy in the sub-structure of individuals. There does not exist any possible combination between growth rate and accident rate that could balance population numbers and/or the level of redundancy within the population; all possible combinations either lead to extinction or to positive population growth with a decline of the fraction of individuals with redundant substructure. Declining populations, however, can be held fluctuating between certain limits by periodic phases of sub-unit repair. These results are particularly pertinent to the population dynamics of diploid (polyploid) organisms.
DNA Repair↗
Population growth makes waves in the distribution of pairwise genetic differences.
Episodes of population growth and decline leave characteristic signatures in the distribution of nucleotide (or restriction) site differences between pairs of individuals. These signatures appear in histograms showing the relative frequencies of pairs of individuals who differ by i sites, where i = 0, 1, .... In this distribution an episode of growth generates a wave that travels to the right, traversing 1 unit of the horizontal axis in each 1/2u generations, where u is the mutation rate. The smaller the initial population, the steeper will be the leading face of the wave. The larger the increase in population size, the smaller will be the distribution's vertical intercept. The implications of continued exponential growth are indistinguishable from those of a sudden burst of population growth Bottlenecks in population size also generate waves similar to those produced by a sudden expansion, but with elevated uppertail probabilities. Reductions in population size initially generate L-shaped distributions with high probability of identity, but these converge rapidly to a new equilibrium. In equilibrium populations the theoretical curves are free of waves. However, computer simulations of such populations generate empirical distributions with many peaks and little resemblance to the theory. On the other hand, agreement is better in the transient (nonequilibrium) case, where simulated empirical distributions typically exhibit waves very similar to those predicted by theory. Thus, waves in empirical distributions may be rich in information about the history of population dynamics.
Biological Evolution↗
The containment of world population growth.
The world has reached the present position of unprecedentedly rapid population growth not by achieving uniquely high fertility but by bringing about extraordinarily low mortality. The high growth rate and the built-in momentum of the age structure are obstacles to achievement of an acceptable standard of living for most of the world's population. Although government population programs have the potential to curb this growth rate, this potential has not been realized, and such programs are too often perceived both by their administrators and the population concerned as an end in themselves rather than a means toward a better standard of living. It is in this latter perspective, and in the context of the total development process, that population programs should be implemented.
Adult↗
The momentum of population growth with time dependent net maternity function.
The momentum of population growth problem of Keyfitz is generalized to contain a gradual change of the age-specific birth rate ro the level of bare replacement. Assuming a time dependence for the net maternity function of the form (formula: see text) R being the net reproductive rate, we show that for the Malthusian model the asymptotic birth rate is increased by exp (r/lambda), where r is the rate of increase of the population before t = 0. A numerical method for obtaining the asymptotic birth rate for a general net maternity function with the same time dependence is outlined.
Age Factors↗
Gonococcal infection, infertility, and population growth: II. The influence of heterogeneity in sexual behaviour.
Heterogeneity in sexual behaviour has an important influence on the transmission dynamics of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). The authors describe the development of a simple mathematical model, incorporating such heterogeneity, to investigate the demographic impact of gonorrhoea on human population growth in developing countries where the disease is endemic. Earlier predictions, based on a model with homogeneous mixing, are shown to be in good qualitative agreement with the predictions of a more complex mathematical framework in which the population is stratified both by sex and into two subgroups representing low and high sexual activity, defined on the basis of rates of sexual partner change. Analyses also demonstrate that the pattern of mixing (assortative to random) between the sexual activity classes has an important influence on the predicted prevalence of gonococcal infection in a defined community. The more complex model supports earlier conclusions that gonorrhoea, via its impact on fertility, can significantly reduce net population growth rates.
Adolescent↗
On the stability of the stationary state of a population growth equation with time-lag.
If in the Verhulst equation for population growth the reproduction factor depends on the history then the equilibrium may become unstable and oscillations and even non-constant periodic solutions may occur. It is shown that the equilibrium is unstable if the reproduction factor at time t is, up to a sufficiently large factor, an arbitrary average of the population densities in the interval (t-2, t-1).
Mathematics↗
Disease in changing populations: growth and disequilibrium.
This paper examines simple age-structured models of childhood disease epidemiology, focusing on nonstationary populations which characterize LDCs. An age-structured model of childhood disease epidemiology for nonstationary populations is formulated which incorporates explicit scaling assumptions with respect both to time and to population density. The static equilibrium properties and the dynamic local stability of the model are analyzed, as are the effects of random variability due to fluctuations in demographic structure. We determine the consequences of population growth rate for: the critical level of immunization needed to eradicate an endemic disease, the transient epidemic period, the return time which measures the stability of departures from epidemiological equilibrium, and the power spectrum of epidemiological fluctuations and combined demographic-epidemiological fluctuations. Growing populations are found to be significantly different from stationary ones in each of these characteristics. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.
Age Factors↗