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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2006

Measurement error in a random walk model with applications to population dynamics.

Population abundances are rarely, if ever, known. Instead, they are estimated with some amount of uncertainty. The resulting measurement error has its consequences on subsequent analyses that model population dynamics and estimate probabilities about abundances at future points in time. This article addresses some outstanding questions on the consequences of measurement error in one such dynamic model, the random walk with drift model, and proposes some new ways to correct for measurement error. We present a broad and realistic class of measurement error models that allows both heteroskedasticity and possible correlation in the measurement errors, and we provide analytical results about the biases of estimators that ignore the measurement error. Our new estimators include both method of moments estimators and "pseudo"-estimators that proceed from both observed estimates of population abundance and estimates of parameters in the measurement error model. We derive the asymptotic properties of our methods and existing methods, and we compare their finite-sample performance with a simulation experiment. We also examine the practical implications of the methods by using them to analyze two existing population dynamics data sets.

Animals↗
PubMed1995

A note on population dynamics.

Population dynamics is analyzed by means of the power series expansion of a decay ratio F(P) with respect to the continuation probability, P, of survival. The truncation of the higher terms of the series yields the Verhulst equation as a first approximation. The approximation for higher age yields a simple exponential decay law of population, while the younger-age approximation recovers Gompertz's empirical law of human mortality. It is shown that there exists a finite survival probability in the limit of t = infinity. The validity of the present result is examined with real population dynamics of centenarians. In order to construct a commensurable definition of aging, an aging phenomenon in decay process is considered on the assumption of an ideal society, from which a simple relationship is derived between the extent of advancement of aging and the continuation probability.

Aging↗
PubMed2006

Dynamical and statistical models of vertebrate population dynamics.

Population dynamics methodology now powerfully combines discrete time models (with constant parameters, density dependence, random environment, and/or demographic stochasticity) and capture-recapture models for estimating demographic parameters. Vertebrate population dynamics has strongly benefited from this progress: survival estimates have been revised upwards, trade-offs between life history traits have been demonstrated, analyses of population viability and management are more and more realistic. Promising developments concern random effects, multistate and integrated models. Some biological questions (density dependence, links between individual and population levels, and diversification of life histories) can now be efficiently attacked.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Cover crops and natural vegetation mulch effect achieved by mechanical management with lateral rotary mower in weed population dynamics in citrus.

The aim of this study was to obtain information on practical weed management in order to reduce the use of herbicides thereby contributing to the sustainable development of citrus crop. The experiment was carried out under field conditions at the experimental area of the Department of Vegetal Production at the College of Agriculture "Luiz de Queiroz," Piracicaba, SP, Brazil, during the season 2002-2003. Influence of mulches produced by four types of vegetations on the dynamic population of weeds in the line of citrus crop (Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck) was evaluated. The experimental design was of factorial randomized blocks (4 x 2), where the treatments were: (i) four types of vegetation: Dolichos lablab L., Cajanus cajan (L.) Millsp, Penisetum glaucum (L.) Leeke, and the natural infestation composed basically by Panicum maximum Jacq.; and (ii) two types of fertilization: directed under canopy and broadcast. Mechanical management of the different vegetations was accomplished using a lateral rotary mower, KAMAQ, I model NINJA MAC 260, projected to release the green cut material under crop canopy, forming a mulch layer. The studied parameters were: (i) counting of weeds per m2 in the crop line after 30, 60, 90, 180, and 210 days following the cutting of existing vegetation; (ii) percentage of covered area by weeds; and (iii) some chemical properties of the soil. It was observed that the natural infestation showed a better weed control when compared with the other treatments, and that the broadcast fertilization, regardless of coverage used, presented a lower number of weeds.

Agriculture↗
PubMedDate not supplied

[The relationship of the population dynamics of gamasid mites with the population dynamics of their murine rodent hosts in the Sikhote-Alin].

22,500 mites were collected from 4515 rodents over a period of 5 years in the Sikhote-Alin reserve. The abundance dynamics of 4, out of 5, most numerous species of mites (Laelaps pavlovskyi, L. clethrionomydis, Eulaelaps stabularis, Haemogamasus serdjukovae) depends on the cyclic fluctuations in the number of rodents. A direct connection between the annual and, to some extent, seasonal dynamics of the abundance of parasites and that of their hosts is most distinct in L. pavlovskyi, an epizoon parasite of the large Japanese field mouse. At the same time the abundance of Hg. ambulans, a multihost parasite of small mammals, does not depend on the number of animals. Certain regularities in the abundance dynamics of gamasid mites in connection with that of their hosts, rodents, is discussed on the basis of obtained material and literary data.

Altitude↗
PubMed1992

[Bionomic studies of Dipetalogaster maximus (Uhler, 1894) (Hemiptera, Reduviidae, Triatominae). III. Population dynamics].

A population dynamics study of D. maximus was carried out under laboratory conditions (28 degrees C e 65% +/- 5% U.R.), and the methodology was the same that has been used for rearing these insects. In order to evaluate the population growth rate of this species, during a 24 months period, five colonies started with a couple recently emerged were observed. Each couple (a male and a female) was maintained in a glass container measuring 20 cm of diameter and 20 cm in height with filter paper on the bottom. The insects were monthly feeding with normal mice blood, and at this day the number of eggs, nymphal stages and adults was registered. All graphical representations of the populations growth showed the same shape. It was found that the average of nymphal stage represented 64.3% of the holè population whereas the oviposition curve showed to be inverse to this one (28.57%) a small percentage of adults was found: males 3.85% and females 3.12%. In this study observations on the biological cycle, longevity and fertility rates were also carried out.

Animals↗
PubMed2000

Visibility of the environmental noise modulating population dynamics.

Characterizing population fluctuations and their causes is a major theme in population ecology. The debate is on the relative merits of density-dependent and density-independent effects. One paradigm (revived by the research on global warming and its relation to long-term population data) states that fluctuations in population densities can often be accounted for by external noise. Several empirical models have been suggested to support this view. We followed this by assuming a given population skeleton dynamics (Ricker dynamics and second-order autoregressive dynamics) topped off with noise composed of low- and high-frequency components. Our aim was to determine to what extent the modulated population dynamics correlate with the noise signal. High correlations (with time-lag -1) were observed with both model categories in the region of stable dynamics, but not in the region of periodic or complex dynamics. This finding is not very sensitive to low-frequency noise. High correlations throughout the entire range of dynamics are only achievable when the impact of the noise is very high. Fitted parameter values of skeleton dynamics modulated with noise are prone to err substantially. This casts doubt as to what degree the underlying dynamics are any more recognizable after being modulated by the external noise.

Animals↗
PubMed2001

Anaerobic codigestion of municipal solid waste and biosolids under various mixing conditions--II: Microbial population dynamics.

Microbial population dynamics were evaluated in anaerobic codigesters treating municipal solid waste and sewage sludge. Ribosomal RNA based oligonucleotide probes were used to characterize changes in population abundance of syntrophic volatile fatty acid degrading bacteria and methanogens. Changes in community structure were linked to traditional performance parameters during the recovery of previously unstable codigesters induced by a reduction in mixing levels. Methanosarcina spp. were the most abundant aceticlastic methanogens in unstable codigesters with high acetate concentrations, while Methanosaeta concilii was dominant in stable systems with low levels of acetate. Growth of Syntrophobacter wolinii was enhanced during stabilization of a codigester with a well-developed population of Methanobacteriaceae, possibly because the presence of adequate numbers of these hydrogenotrophic methanogens encouraged the syntrophic oxidation of propionate. Mesophilic saturated fatty acid beta-oxidizing syntrophs were most abundant in previously unstable codigesters. One minimally mixed reactor became unstable after switching to continuously mixed conditions. After the switch, total archaeal abundance decreased sharply, though Methanobacteriaceae and Methanosarcina spp. levels increased as the fermentation became unbalanced. Based on the results presented here, mixing appears to inhibit the syntrophic oxidation of volatile fatty acids, possibly by disrupting the spatial juxtaposition of syntrophic bacteria and their methanogenic partners.

Biomass↗
PubMed2000

Environmental colour affects aspects of single-species population dynamics.

Single-species populations of ciliates (Colpidium and Paramecium) experienced constant temperature or white or reddened temperature fluctuations in aquatic microcosms in order to test three hypotheses about how environmental colour influences population dynamics. (i) Models predict that the colour of population dynamics is tinged by the colour of the environmental variability. However, environmental colour had no effect on the colour of population dynamics. All population dynamics in this experiment were reddened, regardless of environmental colour. (ii) Models predict that populations will track reddened environmental variability more closely than white environmental variability and that populations with a higher intrinsic growth rate (r) will track environmental variability more closely than populations with a low r. The experimental populations behaved as predicted. (iii) Models predict that population variability is determined by interaction between r and the environmental variability. The experimental populations behaved as predicted. These results show that (i) reddened population dynamics may need no special explanation, such as reddened environments, spatial subdivision or interspecific interactions, and (ii) and (iii) that population dynamics are sensitive to environmental colour, in agreement with population models. Correct specification of the colour of the environmental variability in models is required for accurate predictions. Further work is needed to study the effects of environmental colour on communities and ecosystems.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Interactive effects of prey and p,p'-DDE on burrowing owl population dynamics.

We used population models to explore the effects of the organochlorine contaminant p,p'-DDE and fluctuations in vole availability on the population dynamics of Burrowing Owls (Athene cunicularia). Previous work indicated an interaction between low biomass of voles in the diet and moderate levels of p,p'-DDE in Burrowing Owl eggs that led to reproductive impairment. We constructed periodic and stochastic matrix models that incorporated three vole population states observed in the field: average, peak, and crash years. We modeled varying frequencies of vole crash years and a range of impairment of owl demographic rates in vole crash years. Vole availability had a greater impact on owl population growth rate than did reproductive impairment if vole populations peaked and crashed frequently. However, this difference disappeared as the frequency of vole crash years declined to once per decade. Fecundity, the demographic rate most affected by p,p'-DDE, had less impact on population growth rate than adult or juvenile survival. A life table response experiment of time-invariant matrices for average, peak, and crash vole conditions showed that low population growth under vole crash conditions was due to low adult and juvenile survival rates, whereas the extremely high population growth under vole peak conditions was due to increased fecundity. Our results suggest that even simple models can provide useful insights into complex ecological interactions. This is particularly valuable when temporal or spatial scales preclude manipulative experimental work in the field or laboratory.

Animals↗
PubMed2002

DNA reveals high dispersal synchronizing the population dynamics of Canada lynx.

Population dynamics of Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) have been of interest to ecologists for nearly sixty years. Two competing hypotheses concerning lynx population dynamics and large-scale spatial synchrony are currently debated. The first suggests that dispersal is substantial among lynx populations, and the second proposes that lynx at the periphery of their range exist in small, isolated patches that maintain cycle synchrony via correlation with extrinsic environmental factors. Resolving the nature of lynx population dynamics and dispersal is important both to ecological theory and to the conservation of threatened lynx populations: the lack of knowledge about connectivity between populations at the southern periphery of the lynx's geographic range delayed their legal listing in the United States. We test these competing hypotheses using microsatellite DNA markers and lynx samples from 17 collection sites in the core and periphery of the lynx's geographic range. Here we show high gene flow despite separation by distances greater than 3,100 km, supporting the dispersal hypothesis. We therefore suggest that management actions in the contiguous United States should focus on maintaining connectivity with the core of the lynx's geographic range.

Animals↗
PubMed2001

Investigating long-term ecological variability using the Global Population Dynamics Database.

The Global Population Dynamics Database (GPDD) is an important new source of information for ecologists, resource managers, and environmental scientists interested in the dynamics of natural populations. It comprises more than 4500 time series of population abundance for over 1800 animal species across many taxonomic groups and geographical locations. The GPDD offers great potential for asking comparative questions about the nature of population variability. We illustrate this by characterizing some critical features of ecological variability, variance growth, and spectral reddening.

Animals↗
PubMed2001

Stochastic dynamic population model for northern corn rootworm (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae).

A stochastic dynamic population model for the complete life cycle of northern corn rootworm, Diabrotica barberi Smith & Lawrence, is described. Adult population dynamics from emergence to oviposition are based on a published single-season model for which temperature-dependent development and age-dependent advancement determine adult population dynamics and oviposition. Randomly generated daily temperatures make this model component stochastic. Stochastic hatch is 50+/-8%. A stochastic nonlinear density-dependent larval survival model is estimated using field data from artificial infestation experiments. A regional model of corn phenology is estimated to incorporate the effect of dispersal on adult mortality. Random daily weather is generated using parameters for Brookings, SD. Model performance is evaluated with deterministic simulations, which show that the population converges to zero unless adult mortality is reduced by the availability of corn pollen from the regional model of corn phenology. Stochastic model performance is evaluated with stochastic daily weather, egg hatch, and larval survival in various combinations. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to evaluate model responsiveness to each parameter. Model results are generally consistent with published data.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

From local interactions to population dynamics in site-based models of ecology.

A central problem in ecology is relating the interactions of individuals-described in terms of competition, predation, interference, etc.-to the dynamics of the populations of these individuals-in terms of change in numbers of individuals over time. Here, we address this problem for a class of site-based ecological models, where local interactions between individuals take place at a finite number of discrete resource sites over non-overlapping generations and, between generations, individuals move randomly between sites over the entire system. Such site-based models have previously been applied to a wide range of ecological systems: from those involving contest or scramble competition for resources to host-parasite interactions and meta-populations. We show how the population dynamics of site-based models can be accurately approximated by and understood through deterministic and stochastic difference equations. Conversely, we use the inverse of this approximation to show what implicit assumptions are made about individual interactions by modelling of population dynamics in terms of difference equations. To this end, we prove a useful and general theorem: that any model in our class of site-based models has a corresponding stochastic difference equation population model, by which it can be approximated. This theorem allows us to calculate long-term population dynamics, evolutionary stable strategies and, by extending our theory to account for large deviations, extinction probabilities for a wide range of site-based systems. Our methodology is then illustrated to various examples of between species competition, predator-prey interactions and co-operation.

Competitive Behavior↗