Public health, public protest: The role of health burdens and healthcare access in protest mobilisation.
Health and politics are intertwined, yet few studies have examined the association between health and protest. This study examined whether population health burdens were associated with protest incidence and whether healthcare access modified these associations. Analysis was based on an unbalanced 2004-2023 country-year panel, combining protest counts from ACLED with rates for 22 GBD causes. Mixed-effects negative-binomial models estimated incidence-rate ratios (IRRs) with interactions for healthcare access (±1 SD). Two-way fixed-effects Poisson models were estimated as a benchmark to distinguish cross-national associations from within-country dynamics. Health burdens were systematically, but heterogeneously, associated with protest. Rates for several non-communicable burdens were associated with protest, notably musculoskeletal disorders (IRR 1.72, 95% CI 1.37-2.15), neoplasms (1.24, 1.06-1.44), substance-use disorders (1.32, 1.12-1.56) and HIV/AIDS and other STIs (1.24, 1.12-1.38). Higher healthcare access generally attenuated health-protest associations. Fixed-effects models confirmed several associations (e.g. HIV/AIDS, neoplasms) but revealed that others (e.g. maternal/neonatal disorders, enteric infections) were driven primarily by cross-national differences. Population health burdens were associated with cross-national variation in protest mobilisation. Chronic, non-communicable burdens were associated with heightened protest, whereas poverty-linked and early-life burdens were associated with lower mobilisation. Healthcare access was associated with attenuation of these relationships.