Determinants and approximate estimate of parity progression ratio.
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"In this article, parity progression ratios are computed for the Netherlands using the so called 'life table model'. The reason for applying a new method is that 'traditional' cross-sectional methods...sometimes produce unrealistic values.... With the life table model using age-parity specific fertility...such unrealistic values are made impossible." It is found that "during the period 1970-1985, the percentage of women without children shows a permanent increase from 10 to 25 percent. Between 1970 and 1975, the share of birth order 3+ drops from 46 to 18%, after which it tends to stabilize." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
Taiwan's decline in fertility is studied by using period parity progression ratios. Levels of marriage and motherhood are found to have been high and essentially constant though the late 1980s, suggesting that the decline has been due almost entirely to declines in second and higher order-births. Families with three or more children play an important role in maintaining the current level of fertility. The level of fertility would be even lower without these families. They contributed more than one-half child per woman to the total fertility rate during most of the 1980s. Total fertility rates computed from the period parity progression ratios indicate a substantially higher level of fertility than the conventional total fertility rate; they remained above or at replacement level through 1988. A formal demographic analysis suggests that the conventional total fertility rate has been depressed by shifts in age at childbearing.
A procedure to estimate parity progression ratios in a population from the truncated distribution of open and closed birth intervals is presented. The approach is quite simple in computation and data needs. It does not require any separate data on age at last birth to the women of completed fertility as in earlier methods. The procedure is illustrated with an observed set of data.
In this article, a new methodology that employs parity-progression ratios to estimate the effect of female sterilization on fertility is described, and results using data from Ecuador are compared to those obtained using a previously existing approach that classifies women by marital duration. The methods differ in how they disaggregate marital fertility and in the assumption they make about what the subsequent fertility of sterilized women would have been if they had not been sterilized. The analysis of the Ecuadoran data shows that the estimate of births averted by sterilization has diminished over time, even as sterilization prevalence has been increasing. This situation is attributed to a decline in the fertility of nonsterilized women resulting from increased use of reversible methods of contraception.
"This paper presents a methodology for estimating parity progression ratios (the probability that a woman after delivering...any particular birth will ever proceed to the next birth), utilizing data on births tabulated by birth order and age of the mother in a particular year. This approach...does not need estimates of [gross reproductive rate] as well as the infant mortality rate but it requires knowledge of the growth rate of the population." The technique is illustrated with data from the 1984-1987 Pakistan Fertility Survey.
Contingency table modeling procedures are proposed to examine the effects of independent variables on parity progression ratios. The methodology is outlined and an incremental-factorial linear model is developed.
"An own-child analysis is applied to the household composition data of two rounds of the U.K. Labour Force Survey, each of which has a sample size of about 200 thousand people. Period parity progression ratios and the corresponding total fertility measure (TFPPR) are derived for up to twenty years before the survey date. The biases that arise when using such a source are discussed and assessed by replication using surveys in different years. Methods for correcting bias are developed. Analysis of the standard errors of the measures suggests that such sources provide the most precise, routine and timely indicators of period fertility in many situations...."
The two methods commonly used to assess the effect of sex preferences on fertility are inadequate to the task. Parity progression ratio analyses suffer from logical problems stemming from the heterogeneity of sex preferences and the riskiness of fertility decisions. While conjoint measurement-dominance procedures overcome these logical problems, they cannot yield quantitative estimates of the impact of sex preferences on fertility. A stopping rule measure which overcomes these limitations is proposed and described and its potential for determining the effect of sex predetermination methods on population is discussed.
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Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
"This paper presents a critical evaluation of three widely used tests for sex preferences: sex ratio, parity progression ratio and ordinary least squares [OLS] regression of birth interval. We show that under some appropriate conditions, the sex ratio is a valid test for sex preferences. The methods of parity progression ratio and OLS regression of birth interval fail to deal with right censoring and time varying covariates, which reduce the power of the tests. We suggest the use of hazard estimation to test for sex preferences. We demonstrate the differences among the tests by analyzing the retrospective fertility histories of the Chinese and the Malays in Malaysia. We find that unlike the two conventional methods, the hazard estimation gives clear and strong evidence of sex preferences among the Chinese in Malaysia."
This paper examines the ways in which the behavior of twentieth century cohorts of American women changed simultaneously in the three components of fertility that determine age at last birth--age at first birth, spacing between subsequent births, and parity progression ratios of subsequent births--to produce changes in the timing of the completion of childbearing. It decomposes changes in the mean age at last birth among cohorts and between whites and nonwhites to changes in these three components. To perform these analyses, we developed and applied a method to estimate the distributions and means of ages and last births, birth intervals, and parity progression ratios from age- and parity-specific fertility rates available from vital statistics data. Results show that the cohorts increased and decreased their age at first birth, birth intervals, and parity progression ratios of lower and higher birth orders in almost every possible combination so as to achieve a relatively young age at final birth.
"A class of analytical models to study the distribution of maternal age at different births from the data on age-specific fertility rates has been presented. Deriving the distributions and means of maternal age at birth of any specific order, final parity and at next-to-last birth, we have extended the approach to estimate parity progression ratios and the ultimate parity distribution of women in the population.... We illustrate computations of various components of the model expressions with the current fertility experiences of the United States for 1970."
This paper clarifies the child-sex effects on the number of additional children in Japan. The data were retrospective birth histories of the 8th Japanese National Fertility Survey carried out by the Institute of Population Problems in 1982. 1st, the authors found that the majority of the Japanese had a balanced sex preference. There was a slight shift from boy preference to girl preference in terms of the parity progression ratio. The effect of the 1st child's sex was small, but the effect of the parity-2 sex combination was as big or bigger than that of other socioeconomic variables. Next, the authors observed some evidence suggesting strong sex preference in opinion and behavior, such as differential intentions of further childbearing due to the sex of previous children and differences in the number of abortions caused by the sex combination of living children. Finally, the authors noted further issues to be examined in the study of sex preference in Japan.
"The problems that can arise in documenting trends in mean family size, parity progression ratios, mean age at birth and interbirth intervals are examined by means of the maternity histories collected in the [U.K.] General Household Survey of 1989. Methods of removing the various biases are discussed. The advantages and disadvantages of adopting each approach are discussed. The period parity progression approach to fertility measurement is the most efficient way of using maternity history information to document trends, but it is a little more complex to apply than other methods."