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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed1996

Malthusian parameter on the Finnish population in the 20th century.

We were interested in studying a demographic indicator, the Malthusian parameter which had not been investigated earlier in the case of the Finnish population. We computed the Malthusian parameter with a known renewal equation, which is, as usual, approximated on discrete data by using normal distribution, on the Finnish population in the 20th century. The data was collected from the abundant official statistical sources which are known to be accurate and reliable in Finland. In addition to this parameter we computed the gross and net reproduction rates, the total fertility index, and the mean and variance age of females at child-bearing. The Malthusian parameter seems to be a rather good means of characterizing the development of the population. If the parameter is positive for long enough, the population tends to grow. If it is negative, as has been the case in Finland since 1969, the population starts to diminish sooner or later. On the other hand, it cannot take all factors into account. For instance, because of still increasing lifetime and also because of a relatively large quantity of females at the reproductive age the population is not yet decreasing in Finland. In any case, the Malthusian parameter forecasts the future trend of the decreasing population.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2005

Life-extension and the Malthusian Objection.

Dramatically extending the human lifespan seems increasingly possible. Many bioethicists object that life-extension will have Malthusian consequences as new Methuselahs accumulate, generation by generation. I argue for a Life-Years Response to the Malthusian Objection. If even a minority of each generation chooses life-extension, denying it to them deprives them of many years of extra life, and their total extra life-years are likely to exceed the total life-years of a majority who do not want life-extension. This is a greater harm to those who want extended life than the Malthusian harms to those who refuse extended life, both because losing an extra year of life is worse than enduring a year of Malthusian conditions, and because the would-be Methuselahs have more life-years at stake. Therefore, even if life-extension seems likely to cause severe overcrowding and resource shortages, that threat is not sufficient to justify society in restricting the development or availability of life-extension.

Bioethical Issues↗
PubMed1990

Mathematical investigations of the escape from the Malthusian trap.

"We present a simulation model that synthesizes Malthusian and Boserupian notions of the way population growth and economic development were intertwined. The non-linear stochastic model consists of a system of equations whose dynamics culminate in an industrial revolution after hundreds of iterations. The Industrial Revolution [in Europe] can thus be conceptualized as a permanent 'escape' from the Malthusian trap that occurs once the economy is capable of permanently sustaining an ever growing population. We investigate the conditions for such an escape and their sensitivity to the parameters of the model.... Our results show that the likelihood of an escape is sensitive to the savings rate and to the output elasticities of the two sectors of the economy. When not in a subsistence crisis, the chances that an escape will occur increase for larger values of the ratio of the savings rate to the growth rate of the population. The chances of an escape also increase substantially for larger values of the output elasticities of labor." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

Demography↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Population growth through history and the escape from the Malthusian trap: a homeostatic simulation model.

"A Malthusian simulation model is proposed to describe the growth of human population from the Neolithic through the Industrial Revolution. The economy is composed of a subsistence sector and a capital-producing sector. Our model captures the 'incessant contest' between population growth and the means of subsistence. When the per capita agricultural output falls below a biological minimum, the growth rate of the population is subject, in a random fashion, to perturbations that can take on disastrous proportions." It is suggested that "the slow accumulation of capital (and the buildup of the population of the capital-producing sector) eventually enables the population to overcome the constraints of the hostile economic environment. Our simulations (complete with confidence intervals) yield numerically realistic estimates of the population that eventually escapes from the Malthusian menace and grows unhindered during the Industrial Revolution." (summary in FRE, ITA)

Conservation of Natural Resources↗
PubMed1991

Did Mauritius really provide a "case study in Malthusian economics"?

"In the early 1960s James Meade visited Mauritius as adviser to a Commission evaluating population structure and growth. Out of that visit emerged two papers which were Malthusian in their prognosis of economic prospects for Mauritius. This paper reconsiders the Meade Evaluation and compares his predictions with actual outcomes. As it turns out, his pessimism was not justified. The factors which led him to reach his set of conclusions, and the factors which explain actual economic performance, are both assessed in detail."

Africa↗
PubMed1998

A model on the escape from the Malthusian trap.

"We propose a model to capture the escape from the Malthusian trap in the longrun. Our aim is to emphasize the key role of endogenous technological progress--as initiated by population growth and education--for longrun economic development. In addition we stress the importance to consider the level of fertility and mortality as the determinants of economic development and not only the rate of population growth. In particular, we may observe different economic growth rates in countries with the same rate of population growth, but differing levels of birth and death rates."

Demography↗
PubMed1988

A stochastic version of the Malthusian Trap Model: consequences for the empirical relationship between economic growth and population growth in LDC's.

A stochastic version of the Malthusian trap model relating the growth rate of income per capita to the population growth rate of a given country is described. This model is applied to the a priori evaluation of the cross-sectional correlation between these 2 growth rates under 2 additional assumptions: 1) the relations in the model at national levels include country-specific and time-invariant random components, and 2) these growth rates are measured with a certain degree of temporal aggregation. It is shown that these 2 assumptions can explain near-0 correlations between the 2 growth rates even if there exist a strongly negative effect of population growth on economic growth. However, it is not clear whether these assumptions fully explain such insignificant correlations. Indeed, the implementation of the model is complicated by the structural shifts which are likely to occur in the equations over the course of the demographic transition.

Demography↗
PubMed2003

Malthusian parameters, reproductive values and change under selection in self fertilizing age-structured populations.

A population, reproducing wholly by selfing, is assumed to be observed at times 0,1,.... Individuals between x-1 and x units of age at time t are said to be in age class x at that time. The rate of increase in the long run of individuals of type A(iA)(j) is denoted by m(ij)+1= m(ji)+1. For each genotype there is also a set of reproductive values, corresponding to all age classes and genotypes of individuals having descendants of that genotype. Then, if the number of individuals of each sort of ancestor is multiplied by its reproductive value and the products are summed, the result is the total value, which is V(ij)( t) for genotype A(iA)(j). Then V(ij)( t+1)- V(ij)( t) is equal to m(ij) V(ij)( t), where m(ij) is the Malthusian parameter for A(iA)(j). Furthermore, if the mean and variance at time t of the m(ij)'s, weighted by their corresponding reproductive values, are respectively ( t) and Sigma(m)(2)( t), then m( t+1)-m( t)=Sigma(m)(2)( t)/(1+m( t)).

Age Factors↗
PubMed2006

New approximations to the Malthusian parameter.

Approximations to the Malthusian parameter of an age-dependent branching process are obtained in terms of the moments of the lifetime distribution, by exploiting a link with renewal theory. In several examples, the new approximations are more accurate than those currently in use, even when based on only the first two moments. The new approximations are extended to include a form of asymmetric cell division that occurs in some species of yeast. When used for inference, the new approximations are shown to have high efficiency.

Biometry↗
PubMed1989

Fertility decline in Mauritius: the role of Malthusian population pressure.

Mauritius provides 1 of the outstanding cases of modern fertility reduction in the Third World, yet there has been little analysis and virtually no comparative assessment of this important demographic progression. It is argued that fertility decline in Mauritius has been hindered by cultural composition, assisted only modestly by ongoing development, but aided significantly by family planning program intervention and by a remarkable wide recognition at government and individual levels of the diseconomies associated with population growth in a congested society; comparisons are made with other densely peopled, small islands. Spatial variations in fertility and in family planning activity are slight, but Western economic theories of fertility are found to be helpful in interpreting significant temporal fluctuations.

Africa↗
PubMed1987

On the Malthusian theory of long swings.

"In the Essay on Population economic growth consists of alternating surges of population (during which real wages fall and the rate of profit rises) and capital (during which the reverse occurs). A series of temporary equilibria exists at which wages are maximal, the rate of profit minimal, and fully employed work-force in technically determined relation to fixed capital stock. Between these equilibria occur episodes of excess labour, below-maximum wages, above minimum profit-rate and capital accumulation. Malthus's 'ratios' presuppose a logarithmic production function that implies first, that the full-employment real wage will fall to subsistence; secondly, that the full-employment 'wages fund' is constant." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

Demography↗