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AI-enabled viral genomics: from virus discovery to host prediction and emerging variant forecasting.

The rapid expansion of metagenomic sequencing has generated vast repositories of viral sequence data that far outpace our capacity to interpret them using conventional approaches. Highly divergent sequences, sparse functional annotation, and taxonomically uneven sampling present fundamental challenges for reference-dependent methods, which lose sensitivity precisely for novel and understudied viruses with high public health relevance. Artificial intelligence (AI) provides a new avenue to address these challenges by enabling predictive inference from viral genomes and proteins while reducing dependence on sequence similarity. In this Review, we discuss representative advances in AI for virus discovery, taxonomic classification and functional annotation, prediction of host range and zoonotic potential, and efforts toward forecasting emerging variants. These advances are transforming viral genomics from a largely descriptive discipline into one with increasing predictive capability. We also critically assess the major challenges that constrain current approaches, including the availability of high-quality and representative datasets, rigorous model evaluation, biological interpretability and responsible governance for increasingly capable AI models.

Artificial Intelligence

Correlative analysis of endogenous miRNA expression profiles underlying brown planthopper adaptation to resistant rice.

The brown planthopper (Nilaparvata lugens Stål, BPH) is a major insect pest threatening global rice production. However, the molecular mechanisms underlying the adaptation of BPH populations with different virulence levels to resistant rice cultivars remain poorly understood. MicroRNAs (miRNAs), as key post-transcriptional regulators, play critical roles in host adaptation in herbivorous insects. In this study, we analyzed the miRNA expression profiles of a high-virulent population (IR56p) and a low-virulence population (TN1p) after feeding on susceptible (TN1) and resistant (IR56) rice cultivars. Our findings reveal distinct miRNA-mediated regulatory strategies employed by the two populations. The IR56p population showed downregulation of miRNAs including miR-10, miR-124, and miR-316, showing an inverse correlation with increased expression of predicted target genes involved in detoxification (carboxylesterase, UDP-glycosyltransferase) and effector function (calmodulin). In contrast, several miRNAs highly expressed in IR56p, including miR-307, miR-317, and miR-275, were predicted to target rice genes associated with hormone signaling, cell wall biosynthesis, and oxidative homeostasis, suggesting a possible but unproven inter-species regulatory role that requires functional validation. Collectively, these descriptive and correlative findings provide hypothesis generating insights into insect-plant coevolution and identifies candidate molecular targets for future functional validation and RNA interference-based pest management strategies.

Animals

Algae-to-host horizontal gene transfer in Paramecium bursaria is associated with host adaptation during endosymbiosis.

Paramecium bursaria maintains a stable endosymbiosis with green algae, yet the evolutionary consequences of this association remain unclear. Here, we screened the host genome for algal-derived horizontally transferred genes (HTGs) using a lineage-aware workflow designed to detect horizontal gene transfer (HGT) between two defined lineages. We identified 16 candidate HTGs, including four putative newly transferred genes and 12 homologous transferred genes, most of which were functionally associated with redox homeostasis and metabolism. Five HTGs showed symbiosis-dependent expression. RNAi knockdown of GH32s and SATs reduced host proliferation, total cell area, and motility, while GH32s knockdown also reduced endosymbiont load. Duplication patterns suggest that most transfers may have occurred after the P. bursaria lineage diverged from the sampled Paramecium species but before its lineage-specific whole-genome duplication (WGD). The HTGs also showed host-associated shifts in GC content and gene length, while representative HTGs retained conserved domains and functional motifs. Together, our results support algae-to-host HGT in P. bursaria and suggest that some transferred genes may contribute to metabolic integration during endosymbiosis.

Gene Transfer, Horizontal

Conserved host-exclusive oligonucleotide motifs enriched in pathogenic genes of human oncogenic viruses.

Comparative viral genomics can reveal sequence-level constraints influencing virus-host interactions. Relative minimal absent words (rMAWs) are short oligonucleotide motifs present in viral genomes but completely absent from the host, potentially reflecting selective pressures related to host adaptation and immune evasion. Using the EAGLE algorithm and the GRCh38 human reference genome, we systematically screened for prevalent rMAWs (prMAWs) across six major human oncogenic viruses: Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), human papillomavirus (HPV), human T-cell leukemia virus type 1 (HTLV-1), and human herpesvirus 8/Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (HHV-8/KSHV). highly conserved 11- and 12-bp prMAWs were identified in EBV, HBV, HTLV-1, and HHV-8/KSHV, with sequence prevalences ranging from 91.5% to 97.9%. Conversely, no short prMAWs were detected in HCV or HPV, likely reflecting differences in genome architecture, mutation rates, and long-term host adaptation to the human host. Importantly, the identified host-exclusive motifs exhibited non-random genomic distribution and were preferentially embedded within viral genes central to replication, persistence, immune modulation, and oncogenesis, including EBNA-1 (EBV), HBx (HBV), Tax-associated regions (HTLV-1), and lytic replication genes of HHV-8/KSHV. Notably, all detected prMAWs were enriched in GC nucleotides and exhibited marked CpG over-representation, suggesting sequence constraints associated with epigenetic regulation and viral persistence. Collectively, these highly conserved, host-exclusive signatures offer promising, candidates for sequence-directed approaches in the diagnosis, monitoring, and investigation of virus-associated cancers.

Humans

Parallel evolutionary trajectories rewire enteropathogenic Escherichia coli adhesion to restore host attachment.

Enteropathogenic Escherichia coli (EPEC) causes disease in children, presenting as chronic diarrhea that can impair physical and cognitive development. The attachment of typical EPEC (tEPEC) to the gut epithelium via bundle-forming pili (BFP) is a key factor in its virulence. Yet, infections by atypical EPEC (aEPEC), which lack BFP, have become increasingly common. To investigate how aEPEC recover host-attachment in the absence of BFP, we performed experimental evolution using a non-adherent E. coli, constructed to mimic the ancestor of aEPEC, and selected adherent progeny. Highly adherent variants evolved through phase-variable activation of type I fimbriae (T1F), followed by two alternative trajectories: bacterial filamentation, which increases T1F avidity, or point mutations in the T1F adhesin FimH that enhance ligand affinity. Extending our analysis to the genomes of 327 aEPEC strains isolated from infected patients revealed that similar FimH mutations are common. We further demonstrated experimentally that these naturally occurring variants often increase epithelial-attachment. Our findings implicate T1F in aEPEC pathogenesis and suggest it may be clinically relevant for anti-adhesion therapy. More broadly, these results indicate that impaired host-attachment can be rapidly compensated by upregulating and optimizing an alternative adhesin, and that combining experimental evolution with comparative genomics can reveal evolutionary trajectories occurring in nature.

Bacterial Adhesion

O'nyong-nyong virus adaptive mutations in non-structural protein 1 and 3 enhance RNA replication and overcome FHL1 requirement.

Arthritogenic alphaviruses, like o'nyong-nyong virus (ONNV), cause debilitating musculoskeletal diseases and are geographically expanding. To predict their emergence, we seek to better understand evolutionary mechanisms that enable changes in virus tropism. Here, we identify adaptive mutations in the ONNV non-structural proteins (nsPs) that arose during cellular serial passaging and enabled ONNV to infect non-permissive Lunet cells. Using shotgun proteomics, we show that this human hepatoma cell line lacks the four-and-a-half-LIM domain protein 1 (FHL1), an essential host factor in ONNV RNA replication. Individual single nucleotide mutations in the nsP1 ring-aperture membrane-binding and oligomerization domain, the nsP3 macrodomain, and the nsP3 opal stop codon overcome FHL1 deficiency in Lunet cells by enhanced RNA replication. These findings demonstrate how subtle genomic changes in nsPs can profoundly influence alphavirus replication and tropism.

LIM Domain Proteins

Desert-derived Ensifer sp. SA403 enhances potato salt tolerance by reshaping rhizosphere microbiome functions and host responses.

Soil salinization increasingly threatens global food security, and potato (Solanum tuberosum L.), a moderately salt-sensitive crop, is particularly vulnerable to saline soils. Plant growth-promoting rhizobacteria (PGPR) offer a promising strategy to improve crop performance, yet how PGPR interact with native microorganisms to enhance potato salt tolerance remains poorly understood. In this study, we identified a desert-derived PGPR strain, Ensifer sp. SA403, which substantially enhanced potato performance under high salinity across sterile, non-sterile and field conditions. Physiologically, inoculation with SA403 reduced shoot Na⁺ accumulation and increased the K⁺/Na⁺ ratio; notably, these effects were markedly stronger in non-sterile substrates than under sterile conditions, indicating that SA403-mediated ion homeostasis relies on cooperation with the resident microbiota rather than on the strain acting alone. Metagenomic profiling indicated that SA403 strain reshaped rhizosphere communities, significantly enriching beneficial taxa such as Priestia and Bradyrhizobium, and upregulated functional pathways involved in glutathione and sulfur metabolism. Furthermore, host transcriptomic analyses showed that SA403 modulated plant responses to salt stress, with differentially expressed genes enriched in jasmonic acid signaling, ethanolamine metabolism and amino-acid biosynthesis pathways. Field trials on saline soils confirmed that SA403 significantly increased seedling emergence and tuber weight. Together, our results demonstrate that SA403 functions as a biological mediator that optimizes rhizosphere microecology and coordinates ion balance and host signaling to enhance potato salt tolerance. These findings support the potential of SA403 as a robust PGPR-based tool for sustainable potato production on saline soils.

Rhizosphere

From host response to genomic targets: electrochemical biosensing of tuberculosis biomarkers.

Tuberculosis (TB) remains one of the leading causes of death from a single infectious agent worldwide, with timely diagnosis continuing to be a major challenge, particularly in resource-limited settings. Conventional TB diagnostic methods are limited by low sensitivity, long turnaround times, and an inability to reliably differentiate latent from active disease. Biomarker-based diagnostic strategies have therefore gained increasing attention as they offer the potential to improve early detection, disease differentiation, and treatment monitoring. Herein, we examine electrochemical biosensing strategies for TB diagnostics using a biomarker-class-driven framework, covering host-response biomarkers (IFN-γ and TNF-α), pathogen-derived antigens (ESAT6, CFP10, CFP10-ESAT6, MPT64, Ag85, HspX and LpqH), cell-wall signatures and whole-cell markers (LAM and whole cell Mtb), and genomic markers (Mtb DNA and IS6110). Through structured comparison of recognition elements, biointerface designs, signal amplification strategies, electrochemical techniques, matrices, and validation levels, this review identifies the most promising technical approaches for different TB biomarker classes. It further highlights key translational bottlenecks, including limited clinical validation, buffer-based testing, complex multistep amplification, redox-probe dependence, matrix fouling, and insufficient evidence of manufacturability. This review therefore provides practical guidance for developing electrochemical TB biosensors that are analytically sensitive, clinically relevant, and suitable for decentralized diagnostic applications.

Biosensing Techniques

Therapeutic-drug-monitoring-based ATG Targeted Dosing Strategy in Unmanipulated Haploidentical Haematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation: a randomized, multicenter, phase 3 clinical trial.

Anti-thymocyte globulin (ATG) has been a standard prophylaxis for graft-versus-host disease (GVHD). However, the pharmacokinetics of ATG in vivo vary significantly, and weight-based fixed dosing may not optimize efficacy while minimizing toxicity. We investigated the clinical results of a therapeutic-drug-monitoring (TDM)-based, dose-optimized ATG strategy versus weight-based fixed dosing in haploidentical haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (NCT05166967). Patients were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive a targeted dose of ATG or a fixed dose of 10&#x202f;mg/kg. The primary endpoint was the 365-day graft-versus-host disease-free and relapse-free survival (GRFS). From January 1, 2022, to January 16, 2024, 204 patients were enrolled, with 102 patients in each group. The 365-day GRFS was higher in the targeted dose group (66.7%) than in the fixed dose group (50.0%; hazard ratio [HR], 0.666; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.4456 to 0.9954; P&#x202f;=&#x202f;0.048). The cumulative incidence of moderate to severe chronic GVHD at day 365 was significantly lower in the targeted dose group (9.8%; 95% CI, 5.0 to 16.5) compared with the fixed dose group (22.5%; 95% CI, 15.0 to 31.1; P&#x202f;=&#x202f;0.026). Fewer grade 3-5 infections were reported in the targeted dose group (44.1%) than in the fixed dose group (70.6%; P&#x202f;<&#x202f;0.001). More patients in the targeted dose group achieved optimal ATG exposure (P&#x202f;=&#x202f;0.007) and superior CD4+ T-cell reconstitution (P&#x202f;=&#x202f;0.002). These findings support the clinical utility of a TDM-based individualized ATG dosing strategy that balances efficacy and toxicity for GVHD prophylaxis in allogeneic stem cell transplantation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT05166967.

Humans

A conserved distal-tail helical extension defines a tailspike attachment architecture in Gram-negative siphophages.

Rapid growth of bacteriophage genome collections has outpaced functional annotation of tail-tip proteins, limiting comparative analysis of host-recognition structures. Starting from a shared distal-tail gene organization in the Salmonella phages 9NA and Jersey, I developed a morphogenetic bioinformatic framework integrating gene synteny, sequence comparison, profile hidden Markov model (HMM) screening, structural evidence, structure-aware searching, and AlphaFold modeling. Comparison with the experimentally characterized lambda and Sf11 tail assemblies identified a predominantly alpha-helical C-terminal extension of the distal-tail (DT) protein associated with tailspike attachment, termed the distal-tail helical extension (DT-helix). Screening 541,986 proteins from 5167 complete NCBI RefSeq tailed-phage genomes, followed by evidence-based evaluation of sequence, genomic context, and structural architecture, identified 165 curated DT-helical-extension-associated phages. Their DT proteins segregated into six sequence groups. In the four principal multi-member groups, cognate tailspikes showed group-specific conservation in proximal N-terminal regions but substantially greater downstream diversity, consistent with sequence constraint at the DT-tailspike attachment boundary. A complementary ProstT5/Foldseek search supported the established groups but revealed no convincing additional highly divergent family. Together with the experimentally characterized Sf11 attachment interface, these findings define a recurrent morphogenetic architecture linking conserved distal-tail scaffolds to more variable receptor-binding proteins across siphophages infecting Gram-negative bacteria. Although universal exchangeability is not established, the identified scaffold-receptor-binding boundaries provide a framework for molecular characterization and rational phage engineering. Accession-level information for the 165 curated phages is available through PhageTailDB.

Viral Tail Proteins

Viral replication through phase separation: Cytosolic and nuclear condensates.

Replication of many RNA and DNA viruses occurs within specialized intracellular hubs organized as membraneless biomolecular condensates (BCs) driven by liquid-liquid phase separation. As obligate intracellular parasites, viruses depend on the host cell machinery to complete their replication cycles and therefore actively remodel the intracellular environment to favor viral genome replication, transcription, and assembly. Cytosolic and nuclear phase-separated replication compartments (RC) provide concentrated and dynamic platforms that promote efficient interactions between viral genomes and viral or host proteins essential for infection. The formation of viral replication BCs is typically facilitated by viral proteins enriched in intrinsically disordered regions and low-complexity domains, which enable multivalent interactions with viral nucleic acids and cellular factors. These interactions are mediated by diverse biophysical forces, including hydrophobic and &#x3c0; interactions, hydrogen bonding, molecular crowding, and osmotic effects. Throughout infection, viral BCs remain highly dynamic, allowing continuous exchange of components and functional maturation of replication hubs. Their properties and activities are further regulated by post-translational modifications of viral and host proteins, such as phosphorylation, acetylation, and methylation. In this review, we summarize current evidence supporting liquid-liquid phase separation as a central organizing principle of viral RCs. We focus on representative RNA and DNA viruses that replicate in the cytosol or nucleus, highlighting virus-specific strategies, conserved mechanisms, and the consequences of BC formation for viral replication efficiency, host antiviral responses, and therapeutic intervention.

Phase Separation

Probiotic-derived extracellular vesicles as food-based nanocarriers: Mechanisms, functional applications, and future perspectives in food systems.

Probiotic-derived extracellular vesicles (PDEVs) are a promising type of postbiotic nanoparticle derived by fermentation of probiotics, and have gained growing interest as a potential application in food science and nutrition. These are lipid bilayer vesicles of nanoscale, which are naturally released by probiotic cells and contain a wide variety of bioactive molecules, such as proteins, nucleic acids, and metabolites. Moreover, PDEVs are highly stable, biocompatible, and can be easily engineered to have surfaces with high functionality, which makes them good candidates in functional engineering. In contrast to traditional live probiotics, PDEVs overcome the difficulties of preserving microbial viability during processing and storage, thus providing superior safety, stability, and predictable biological performance. This is a systematic review of the various functions of PDEVs in food systems. We conclude on the processes through which PDEVs control intestinal barrier integrity, alter gut microbiota composition, and alter host immune responses, and their potential to enhance gut health when added to functional foods. In addition to their health-promoting effects, PDEVs have shown significant potential as natural antimicrobial agents to preserve food and as effective nanocarriers of hydrophobic bioactive compounds, including fucoxanthin, to improve their stability, bioavailability, and targeted delivery. Moreover, PDEVs can be used as new regulators of microbial fermentation. However, it should be noted that a lot of the evidence that is available is still preliminary and the effectiveness of these applications in real food-processing and storage conditions has not been fully proven. Although they have potential, there are a number of challenges that still hinder the widespread use of PDEVs in the food industry. These involve the creation of scalable and cost-effective production processes, batch-to-batch consistency, vesicle stability in a variety of food matrices, and regulatory and safety considerations. Other emerging engineering approaches, such as surface functionalization and cargo loading, are also discussed in this review and could further increase the specificity, functionality, and application versatility of PDEVs in food systems. Moving forward, the incorporation of PDEVs into the next generation functional foods, novel food preservation methods, and customized nutrition plans should be prioritized in future studies. Further developments in these fields can make PDEVs useful platforms at the interface of food microbiology, nanotechnology, and human health.

Probiotics

Construction of an infectious clone of Spodoptera frugiperda densovirus and its biological characteristics.

Densoviruses are highly pathogenic to their insect hosts and have great potential for biocontrol. Spodoptera frugiperda densovirus (SfDV) was isolated from diseased larvae of Spodoptera frugiperda, while its biological functions remain unclear. Herein, we successfully constructed an infectious clone of SfDV. The S. frugiperda larvae transfected with the infectious clone exhibited anorexia, stunted growth, and reduced activity. Histopathological analysis further showed that the epidermis, fat body and trachea were infected instead of muscle and midgut tissues. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) revealed that numerous virions of about 22&#x202f;nm were distributed within both the nucleoplasm and cytoplasm of epidermal cells. Moreover, many virions were also found contained within vesicles in the cytoplasm. The replication kinetics of the rescued SfDV (rSfDV) was similar to that of the parental SfDV. The median lethal dose (LD50) and median lethal time (LT50) values of rSfDV were 6.63&#x202f;&#xd7;&#x202f;107 viral genome copies (vgc), 5.23&#x202f;d, respectively, which were also comparable to those of the parental SfDV. Taken together, the infectious clone of SfDV provides an important tool for further exploring the genome function, pathogenesis, and interactions with its hosts.

Animals

Beyond predictive performance: A systematic review and critical methodological appraisal of AI/ML and conventional modelling strategies in breast, colorectal, and pancreatic Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Predictive modelling for cancer risk, treatment-related complications, and survival is central to precision oncology. Conventional logistic regression (LR) and Cox proportional hazards (CoxPH) regression remain widely used but are limited when modelling nonlinear interactions, high-dimensional imaging features, and multimodal clinical-metabolic predictors. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) methods offer expanded capability through automated feature extraction, ensemble learning, and flexible survival modelling, but the evidence on when AI/ML adds value over conventional models across cancer sites and predictive tasks remains fragmented. OBJECTIVE: To systematically evaluate the methodological performance, validation strategies, and translational limitations of AI/ML models compared with conventional statistical models in published predictive-modelling studies for breast, colorectal, or pancreatic cancer. METHODS: PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science were searched for studies published between January 2019 and March 2025. Two reviewers independently conducted title-and-abstract screening, full-text eligibility assessment, and PROBAST risk-of-bias assessment. Sixty-five studies (n&#xa0;=&#xa0;907,567 participants) were narratively synthesised by cancer site, predictive task, model family, comparator, validation strategy, predictor modality, and calibration or explainability reporting. RESULTS: The 65 studies comprised breast cancer (n&#xa0;=&#xa0;35), colorectal cancer (n&#xa0;=&#xa0;21), and pancreatic cancer (n&#xa0;=&#xa0;9). AI/ML superiority over LR and CoxPH was task- and data-dependent. CNN- and U-Net-based models predominated in imaging and body-composition tasks, tree-based ensembles consistently outperformed LR for tabular perioperative complication prediction, and CoxPH remained competitive, and in the largest pancreatic risk study, superior to XGBoost (C-index 0.802 vs 0.723) in well-structured datasets. PROBAST analysis-domain risk was moderate in 54 of 65 studies (83%), driven by limited external validation, sparse calibration reporting (11/65), and few decision-curve analyses (7/65). CONCLUSION: AI/ML adds the most methodological value in imaging-derived feature extraction and nonlinear perioperative prediction, while conventional regression remains preferable in large, structured datasets with linear predictors. Clinical translation requires standardised body-composition definitions, external validation, calibration assessment, decision-curve analysis, and explainability, in line with TRIPOD+AI and CLAIM standards.

Humans

Predictive value of anal sphincter electromyography for sacral neuromodulation test-phase outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Sacral neuromodulation (SNM) is an established therapy for refractory pelvic organ dysfunction. Anal sphincter electromyography (EMG) is commonly used preoperatively to assess sacral and peripheral nerve integrity. However, the prognostic significance of chronic neurogenic EMG changes for SNM outcomes remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether chronic neurogenic changes on preoperative anal sphincter EMG predict the outcome of the SNM test phase. METHODS: We retrospectively analysed 62 consecutive patients with bladder and/or bowel dysfunction or pelvic pain who were candidates for SNM treatment and who underwent preoperative anal sphincter EMG. EMG findings were classified as normal or showing chronic neurogenic changes. SNM test-phase success was defined as a &#x2265;50% improvement of symptoms at 24&#xa0;days. Outcomes were compared between EMG groups. RESULTS: Of the 62 patients (49 women, 13 men), 30 (48%) had normal EMG findings and 32 (52%) showed chronic neurogenic changes. Overall, the SNM test phase was successful in 47 patients (76%). Success rates were similar in patients with normal EMG (72%) and neurogenic EMG changes (79%), with no statistically significant difference (p&#xa0;=&#xa0;0.878). Sex-stratified analyses revealed no significant association between EMG findings and test-phase success in women or men. CONCLUSIONS: Chronic neurogenic changes on anal sphincter EMG do not predict SNM test-phase outcomes. These findings suggest that abnormal sphincter EMG results should not be used as a standalone criterion to exclude patients from SNM therapy. SIGNIFICANCE: Signs of neurogenic damage on anal sphincter EMG are not an indicator of reduced neuromodulatory capacity or diminished clinical response to SNM.

Humans

Association of lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 with recurrence risk and its predictive value in large artery atherosclerotic stroke.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association of lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) with large artery atherosclerotic (LAA) stroke and its predictive value for recurrence. METHODS: We consecutively enrolled 412 acute LAA stroke patients. Using a cutoff of 200&#xa0;ng/mL, patients were divided into high and low Lp-PLA2 groups, and into recurrence and non&#x2011;recurrence groups based on 1&#x2011;year follow&#x2011;up. Baseline characteristics, lipid profiles, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores, and vascular stenosis degree were compared. Binary logistic regression and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis were used to identify independent risk factors and evaluate predictive value. RESULTS: The high Lp-PLA2 group had significantly higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), small dense low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (sdLDL-C), prevalence of severe stenosis (&#x2265;70%), and proportion of NIHSS&#xa0;>&#xa0;15 (all P&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.05). The recurrence group showed elevated Lp-PLA2, higher LDL&#x2011;C and sdLDL-C, more severe neurological deficits, and more severe stenosis (all P&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.001). Multivariable regression identified elevated Lp-PLA2 (per 10&#xa0;ng/mL: OR&#xa0;=&#xa0;1.139, 95% CI: 1.089-1.191), moderate (OR&#xa0;=&#xa0;3.145) and severe (OR&#xa0;=&#xa0;11.663) neurological deficits, and severe stenosis (OR&#xa0;=&#xa0;9.390) as independent risk factors for recurrence (all P&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.05). The Area Under the Curve (AUC) of Lp-PLA2 was 0.75 (95% CI: 0.69-0.82), with an optimal cutoff of 208.95&#xa0;ng/mL. CONCLUSION: Elevated Lp-PLA2 is associated with adverse lipid profiles, more severe neurological deficits, and greater vascular stenosis in LAA stroke patients, and independently predicts 1&#x2011;year recurrence. Lp-PLA2 shows moderate predictive value, supporting its potential for risk stratification.

Humans

Machine learning-based prediction of unplanned readmission and construction of an online calculator for elderly patients with mild ischemic stroke.

OBJECTIVE: To screen for independent risk factors for unplanned readmission in elderly patients with mild ischemic stroke, and to construct and validate an online risk prediction calculator based on an interpretable machine learning model, thereby providing a promising practical tool for accurate clinical assessment of 30&#x2011;day all&#x2011;cause unplanned readmission risk in this population. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted, including 1050 patients aged&#xa0;&#x2265;&#xa0;60&#xa0;years with mild ischemic stroke admitted between August 2023 and September 2024. Participants were randomly divided into a training set (840 cases) and a test set (210 cases) at a ratio of 8:2. Risk factors were screened by univariate analysis and multivariable Logistic regression. Four machine learning models, namely LightGBM, XGBoost, Random Forest, and K&#x2011;Nearest Neighbors (KNN), were developed and their performance was evaluated using AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity as metrics. The SHAP framework was used for interpretability analysis, and an online calculator was subsequently developed based on the optimal model. RESULTS: Univariate analysis showed significant differences (P&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.05) in 13 factors including age, smoking, AIP, TyG index, HALP score, etc. Multivariable Logistic regression identified age (OR&#xa0;=&#xa0;9.752), smoking (OR&#xa0;=&#xa0;5.171), AIP (OR&#xa0;=&#xa0;6.691), TyG index (OR&#xa0;=&#xa0;4.393), HALP score (OR&#xa0;=&#xa0;2.831), and&#xa0;&#x2265;&#xa0;2 comorbidities (OR&#xa0;=&#xa0;3.664) as independent risk factors. All four machine learning models demonstrated good predictive performance. Based on a comprehensive evaluation of multiple metrics and computational efficiency, the LightGBM model exhibited the best predictive performance (AUC&#xa0;=&#xa0;0.884, accuracy&#xa0;=&#xa0;0.829, sensitivity&#xa0;=&#xa0;0.812, specificity&#xa0;=&#xa0;0.875). SHAP analysis showed that age, AIP, TyG index, smoking, and HALP score were key predictors. An online calculator developed based on this model enables individualized risk predictions. CONCLUSION: Key risk factors associated with 30&#x2011;day unplanned readmission in elderly patients with mild ischemic stroke were identified. The LightGBM model demonstrated high predictive accuracy, and together with the interpretability analysis and online calculator, offers a practical tool to support clinical risk assessment. However, this tool requires future external validation.

Humans

Risk prediction models for blood transfusion in patients undergoing total hip and knee arthroplasty: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To systematically review and evaluate published risk prediction models for perioperative blood transfusion in patients undergoing total hip or knee arthroplasty (THA/TKA). METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library, and Embase from inception to May 31, 2025. Two researchers independently screened the literature, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias and applicability using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values were pooled via a meta-analysis using Stata 18.0. RESULTS: d Fourteen studies containing 36 prediction models were included. The incidence of blood transfusion among THA/TKA patients ranged from 3.2% to 30.8%. Preoperative hemoglobin (Hb) level, tranexamic acid (TXA) use, operative duration, intraoperative blood loss, and age were the most frequently incorporated predictors. Model sensitivity ranged from 58% to 94.5%, and specificity ranged from 71.3% to 94%. Meta-analysis showed that the pooled AUC value of the 13 validated models was 0.87 (95% CI: 0.85-0.90), suggesting good discriminatory performance. All models were rated as having a high risk of bias. The applicability of four studies was rated as unclear. CONCLUSION: Although the included studies demonstrated promising discriminative ability of prediction models for blood transfusion in THA/TKA, all were assessed as having a high risk of bias using the PROBAST tool. Therefore, future research should prioritize the development of models with larger sample sizes, rigorous study designs, and multicenter external validation.

Humans