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Intraskeletal Variation in Cortical Bone Quantity in a Medieval Italian Sample: A Multivariate Exploratory Approach.

Bioarcheologists interpret skeletal health by examining variability within and between individuals. Studies of bone loss have generated contradictory and conflicting results regarding the onset and severity of age-related bone loss on a global and temporal scale, perhaps due to mismatched methodologies. Intraskeletal comparisons of bone tissue prove challenging precisely because of heterogeneous baselines in quantity and remodeling of cortical bone throughout the skeleton, as well as evolutionary histories and environmental impacts on growth and development. Here we analyze cortical bone indicators from the rib, metacarpal, and femoral cortical bone in a subset of individuals (n = 72) regions from the medieval Italian archaeological site of Pieve di Pava. To facilitate intraskeletal comparisons across elements with different biological baselines, we standardize cortical bone parameters using z-scores. Variation in relative intraskeletal cortical bone was assessed using accessible multivariate methods (principal component analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis). Results suggest an association between femoral and metacarpal cortical bone values, with stochastic trends in metacarpal and femoral relative bone quantity in relation to the rib bone quantity at the sample level. Our study demonstrates that while intraskeletal analyses are challenging, they are made more robust by synthesizing multivariate methods alongside exploratory data analysis (EDA) methods to tack between sample-level and individual-level scales and variability. Ultimately, we advocate for leveraging multivariate techniques not as a final step, but rather as a means of generating new hypotheses and challenging tendencies to a priori establish typological groups in the research process.

Skeleton

Genomic history of the Caucasus: A systematic review and meta-analysis of ancient DNA studies.

The Caucasus region represents a unique natural laboratory for paleogenetic research due to its complex topography, long-standing role as a migratory corridor and glacial refugium, and exceptional preservation conditions for ancient DNA. This review synthesizes recent genome-wide studies to reconstruct the demographic history shaping the distinctive genetic landscape of modern Caucasus populations. The analysis reveals a deep pattern of continuity, isolation, and periodic admixture. Early genetic differentiation emerged in the Neolithic and Chalcolithic, forming distinct steppe and mountain population clusters. The Bronze Age was a pivotal period marked by large-scale gene flow from the Eurasian Steppe, particularly linked to the Yamnaya expansion, and interactions with Iranian and Anatolian-related groups. Despite these influences, many populations demonstrate remarkable genetic continuity from the Bronze Age to the present day. Significant knowledge gaps persist, particularly for the Paleolithic, Mesolithic, and Neolithic of the North Caucasus, as well as for the Late Medieval and Early Modern periods across the entire region. Addressing these gaps through targeted archaeogenomic studies is crucial for understanding the fine-scale processes that formed the hierarchical structure and high linguistic diversity of Caucasus populations, offering a powerful model for studying human adaptation, interaction, and language-genetics dynamics in a mountainous environment.

Humans

Mining Stored-Specimen Studies for Information about Cancer Natural History.

The advent of new multicancer early detection tests and publication of early diagnostic results have generated expectations of clinical benefit from multicancer screening. The clinical benefit of a cancer screening test depends critically on disease natural history, which is typically learned from prospective screening studies. Retrospective studies of stored blood specimens are important in learning about a test's preclinical diagnostic performance but have rarely been used to infer natural history. The extent to which these studies might be harnessed to also learn natural history is discussed in the context of an article in this issue that infers the combined natural history of a range of cancers targeted by a multicancer early detection test using a case-control subsample of specimens from a large cohort study. The critical question concerns the identifiability of key transition rates in multistate models of natural history alongside state-specific sensitivities. The article suggests that these parameters are estimable within a Bayesian framework that leverages prior information about test sensitivity from diagnostic studies. We offer a heuristic discussion of identifiability in this setting and encourage formal study to determine the extent to which models with varying degrees of complexity may be learned from stored-specimen studies. See related article by Dai et al., p. 1535.

Humans

First insights into the role of evolutionary history in shaping venom composition of Vipera ammodytes.

Understanding intraspecific venom variation requires distinguishing the contributions of neutral population history from natural selection. This study aims to determine whether venom variation in Vipera ammodytes species complex is structured across eight phylogenetic groups. Despite a complex evolutionary history, venom composition did not differ among phylogenetic groups within the analytical framework used, suggesting that shared ancestry alone does not explain venom variation. Whether local adaptation to environmental conditions explains the observed variation remains an open question for future studies.

Animals

Complex evolutionary history of Rosales mediated by extensive incomplete lineage sorting and hybridization.

The angiosperm order Rosales still represents a major challenge for phylogenetic reconstruction. Although its circumscription is now well-defined, phylogenetic relationships among families are still uncertain. Here, we used nuclear, plastid, and mitochondrial genomic data from 33 species representing all nine families to further clarify interfamilial relationships and the group's evolutionary history. We detected significant phylogenetic conflict among the three datasets. Further analyses at the nuclear level identified incomplete lineage sorting (ILS) as the main cause of unstable phylogenetic positions among families. The discordant placements of Rhamnaceae and Elaeagnaceae based on plastid and mitochondrial data are caused by ancient hybridization events, potentially involving differences in organellar inheritance. Our molecular dating confirms earlier suggestions that the ancient rapid diversification of the three Rosaceae subfamilies could be the main reason for the difficulties in resolving their phylogenetic relationships. Our findings provide new insights into the interfamilial relationships of Rosales and demonstrate that the evolutionary history of this order was shaped by ancient and rapid radiation as well as extensive ILS and reticulate evolution. They also suggest that previous attempts to clarify interfamilial relationships in this order were hampered by combining nuclear and organellar sequence data, leading to inconsistent topologies observed across earlier studies.

Phylogeny

Addressing racism as a clinical competence: Robert Wilson, Jr. (1867-1946).

Addressing health inequity is now recognized as a clinical competency in medical education. We examined the career and writings of Robert Wilson Jr. (1867-1946), longtime dean of the Medical College of the State of South Carolina during the Jim Crow Era, using primary and secondary sources within the context of systemic and structural racism, particularly in South Carolina. Wilson used public health data to refute the "Black Extinction Hypothesis" rooted in social Darwinism. He challenged assumptions of inherent Black susceptibility to tuberculosis, linking disease instead to social determinants of health. He also identified disproportionate mortality from kidney and cardiovascular disease among Black populations, anticipating modern health disparities research. Wilson further acknowledged systemic injustice and implicated structural conditions, including housing, in shaping outcomes. In an era of continuing health inequity and racial health disparities, Wilson applied empirical evidence to reject biological determinism, identify outcomes disparities, and advocate for racial justice.

History, 20th Century

Genome-wide insights into the evolutionary and demographic history of the red alga Mazzaella laminarioides: Evidence for speciation with ancient migration along the southeast Pacific coast.

The mechanisms driving lineage divergence in red algae remain unexplored, despite the group's remarkable diversity and ancient evolutionary history. The red alga Mazzaella laminarioides, a Chilean intertidal species complex composed of three parapatric cryptic lineages (North, Center, South), offers a valuable system to evaluate these processes, as its life history combines severe dispersal limitation with a haploid-diploid cycle that may influence the emergence of reproductive barriers. We reconstructed its evolutionary history using whole-genome sequencing and nuclear genome assembly of representative individuals from each lineage. Phylogenomic analyses based on 1,507 single-copy orthologs recovered three deeply divergent lineages with limited nuclear discordance consistent with incomplete lineage sorting. For both splits, demographic modelling was most consistent with an Ancient Migration scenario, although support over strict isolation was moderate, suggesting that divergence may have begun with low asymmetric ancestral gene flow followed by subsequent loss of connectivity, demographic bottlenecks, and later population expansion. Coding sequence analyses revealed lineage-specific dN/dS heterogeneity; only one South-lineage locus passed FDR correction (metaxin-1, mitochondrial protein import), with two further South-lineage candidates in chlorophyll and heme biosynthesis falling below the FDR threshold. Together, these signals suggest that divergent selective pressures on energy acquisition may have contributed to divergence at the southern end of the distribution. These results add to the small but growing body of whole-genome data for red algae and, alongside recent macroalgal studies, suggest that ancestral connectivity could be a recurrent feature of lineage divergence even in marine organisms with extremely restricted dispersal.

Rhodophyta

Syndemics, violence and injury: exploring historical relationships between infectious disease epidemics and violent crime in South Africa.

This paper explores historical and contemporary intersections between mass-mortality epidemics and violent crime in South Africa, focusing on four major epidemics - Spanish Flu, tuberculosis, HIV, and Covid-19. The study integrates epidemiological data and contextual historical information such as crime statistics, archival records, and secondary scholarship to explore whether epidemic-driven mortality crises are associated with subsequent changes in violence and injury profiles. With the possible exception of gendered violence, the study finds little evidence that earlier epidemics directly contributed to rapid or sustained increases in violent crime, despite causing substantial adult mortality and long-term social and economic disruption. A comparison between epidemic and socio-economic profiles strongly suggests that the significant increases in violent crime recorded after the Covid-19 pandemic are highly localised, and may be more strongly related to lockdown responses, including alcohol restrictions, rather than the effects of disease itself.

Humans

The Natural History of Residual and Recurrent Disease in Advanced Juvenile Nasopharyngeal Angiofibroma: A Systematic Review.

OBJECTIVE: This systematic review explores the natural history of residual and recurrent juvenile nasopharyngeal angiofibromas (JNAs) to inform clinical decision-making. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science. REVIEW METHODS: A systematic literature review was conducted according to PRISMA guidelines across PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science from inception to February 20, 2025 and was re-run on September 21, 2025. Studies included patients with advanced JNA and documented follow-up of residual or recurrent disease. Descriptive statistics, chi-squared analysis, and analysis of variance were used to evaluate treatment outcomes across different modalities including surgery, radiotherapy, gamma knife surgery, and medical therapies. RESULTS: Twenty-one studies encompassing 131 male patients (mean age 16.3 years) were included. Residual or recurrent disease demonstrated complete involution in 41%, stable disease in 29%, and reduction in size in 25% of cases. Only 2% of patients had progressive disease. A statistically significant association was observed between treatment modality and outcome (p = 0.015), with radiotherapy, either alone, or as part of a multimodal approach, showing the highest rates of spontaneous involution. CONCLUSION: Residual and recurrent JNAs often remain stable or regress without further intervention. Close surveillance with imaging is a safe and effective strategy for asymptomatic patients, minimizing the risks of additional treatment in a young patient population with disease near critical anatomical structures.

Humans

How do women with a history of childhood sexual abuse experience the preconception and perinatal period? A qualitative systematic review.

CONTEXT: Child sexual abuse (CSA) is a public health issue that predominantly affects women and has both short- and long-term consequences. The perinatal period can represent a challenge, but also an opportunity to identify a history of CSA and to provide sensitive care that may help prevent the intergenerational transmission of trauma. AIM: To describe and understand the experiences and coping strategies of women who are survivors of child sexual abuse and are transitioning to motherhood. METHOD: We conducted a systematic review of qualitative studies according to a protocol registered in PROSPERO, following methodological standards and reporting the results according to the ENTREQ guideline. A search was conducted on five databases up to July 2025. Two authors independently selected the articles and assessed their methodological quality. Data were analysed using thematic synthesis and the confidence in the findings was evaluated according to GRADE-CERQual. RESULTS: We included 21 qualitative studies that resulted in six themes. The findings reveal how women who experienced child sexual abuse and are transitioning to motherhood may experience this stage with ambivalence-ranging from revictimisation to identity reconstruction-where perinatal care emerges as a potential healing vehicle throughout this process. CONCLUSIONS: The perinatal period becomes a window of opportunity to heal deep wounds, with perinatal care playing a key role. The findings support trauma-informed perinatal care, underpinned by reflective practice and a holistic approach. Further work is needed to improve the identification of child sexual abuse, enhance professional training and review current practices to ensure sensitive care.

Humans

Tracing the evolution and diversity of human parvovirus B19 across human history.

Human parvovirus B19 (B19V) is an ubiquitously spread, exclusively human pathogen, mainly posing risks to children, as well as pregnant and immunocompromised individuals. Despite evidence of B19V infection of human populations as far back as 7,000 years, the evolutionary history of B19V remains poorly understood. In this study, we present B19V genomic data from the remains of 53 globally distributed individuals spanning more than 8,000 years, including 7 children. Our findings suggest that the most recent common ancestor of all present B19V lineages existed around 12,000 years ago, at the end of the last Ice Age. Additionally, we identified an extinct Eurasian clade that participated in the recombination event that led to the emergence of B19V genotype 2 (GT-2). We date this event to ∼3,200-1,800 BP, potentially in the greater Mediterranean area. Our study shows aspects of how ancient parvovirus variants arose, disseminated, and impacted human health through time.

ancient DNA

Trade-offs in avian parental care: a review of theory and meta-analysis of brood size manipulations.

The selective forces shaping parental care have been studied for over 50 years. While theoretical and experimental work has yielded qualitative progress, the large body of empirical work testing predictions about parental investment based on life-history trade-offs has yet to be synthesized. We first provide an overview of the core life-history theory exploring how selection might shape parental care. We then conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis on studies that experimentally manipulated brood size in birds, a widely used experimental approach to manipulate parental investment. We extracted 313 estimates from 62 studies representing 31 species of birds from 19 different families and tested key predictions on trade-offs in parental care derived from theory. Our analysis provides strong support for some predictions about life-history trade-offs in parental care, but weak or equivocal support for others. Specifically, we found that overall, avian parents respond to brood size manipulations as predicted by life-history theory: they increased care in response to brood enlargement, and decreased care in response to brood reductions. Furthermore, for the same relative manipulation size, responses to brood reductions were greater than responses to brood enlargements. This finding is consistent with predictions derived from life-history theory based on some types of non-linear utility curves. However, many predictions derived from theory are not well supported by our comparative analysis. Species' life-history traits such as clutch size (a measure of current reproduction), adult survival, and broods per year (two measures of future reproduction), explained little, if any, among-species variation in response to brood size manipulations. Several factors may explain this. We highlight that brood size manipulations may affect more than just perception of the value of current reproduction, such as altering parents' perception of predation risk. Importantly, these unintended consequences could lead to asymmetric responses like those we observed. Other common experimental approaches - such as hormone manipulations, altering a partner's effort, and food supplementation - often affect multiple traits or fitness components simultaneously, or may involve cues that poorly match the evolved mechanisms guiding parental behaviour. Our review of both theory and experimental approaches suggests that there are multiple opportunities for more precise experiments. We offer several recommendations for effective designs. One is improved understanding of the biology underlying the functions relating to costs and benefits, with careful consideration of not only how the manipulation will affect only one of those, but also the mechanisms that might alter how parents perceive the manipulation. We also emphasize general principles, such as assessing alternative hypotheses and devising multiple independent tests. Armed with these recommendations, we believe there are new opportunities to increase the strength of inference achieved from studies aimed at understanding the trade-offs affecting the evolution of parental care.

Animals

Breastfeeding Outcomes After Radiofrequency Ablation and Surgical Excision of Fibroadenomas Compared to Natural History: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Fibroadenomas, common benign breast tumors in women of reproductive age, are increasingly managed with minimally invasive radiofrequency ablation (RFA) or surgical excision. However, their impact on breastfeeding outcomes remains underexplored. We aimed to assess breastfeeding ability and breast tissue changes in women treated with RFA or surgery compared to those with untreated fibroadenomas. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we evaluated 153 women with biopsy-confirmed fibroadenomas across five groups: RFA with prior breastfeeding (RFA-PreBF; n = 26), RFA with posttreatment breastfeeding (RFA-PostBF; n = 22), surgical excision with prior breastfeeding (Surgical-PreBF; n = 30), surgical excision with posttreatment breastfeeding (Surgical-PostBF; n = 20), and noninterventional with breastfeeding (Observation-BF; n = 55). Breastfeeding ability was assessed using a 5-point scale, and breast tissue changes were evaluated via ultrasound at 18 months, and all breastfeeding attempts occurred at a minimum of 12 months postprocedure. Fisher's exact test compared complete lactation failure rates, and a power analysis validated the study design (Fig. 1). FINDINGS: The combined RFA group (n = 48) had a higher complete lactation failure rate (14.6%) than the Observation-BF group (3.6%; Fisher's exact test, p = 0.045). Similarly, the combined surgical group (n = 50) had a higher complete lactation failure rate (16.0%) than the Observation-BF group (p = 0.034). When pooled, the combined intervention group (n = 98) showed a complete lactation failure rate of 15.3% versus 3.6% in the Observation-BF group. Residual tissue correlated with lactation impairment in the RFA group (Spearman's &#x3c1;, p < 0.05). Ultrasound showed no tumor recurrence, with cystic changes in some cases not linked to breastfeeding impairment. Power analysis confirmed 80% power to detect a medium effect size (f = 0.25, Fig. 1), supporting the study's robustness.7 RFA-PreBF (n = 26), RFA-PostBF (n = 22), Surgical-PreBF (n = 30), Surgical-PostBF (n = 20), and Observation-BF (n = 55). Breastfeeding ability was assessed using a 5-point scale, and breast tissue changes were evaluated via ultrasound at 18 months. Fisher's exact test compared complete lactation failure rates, and a power analysis validated the study design (Fig. 1).[Figure: see text]Interpretation:RFA and surgical excision are effective for fibroadenoma management but increase the risk of complete lactation failure compared to untreated fibroadenomas. Careful patient selection, precise procedural techniques, and vigilant posttreatment monitoring are essential to optimize breastfeeding outcomes, particularly for women planning future pregnancies.

Humans

Angiotensin II regulates anxiety and social-affective top-down and bottom-up attention control in a sex-dependent manner.

BACKGROUND: The renin-angiotensin system (RAS) has been increasingly recognized as potent modulator of cognitive and affective functions, with angiotensin II type 1 receptor (AT1R) antagonists emerging as repurposing candidate for anxiety and stress-related disorders. However, it remains unclear whether transient AT1R blockade modulates emotional attentional control and whether these effects are sex-dependent. METHODS: We conducted a preregistered, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled pharmacological eye-tracking study in 79 healthy adults (males and females) and determined effects of transient AT1R blockade via losartan (50&#xa0;mg) on emotional attention control using a validated anti-saccade paradigm with social (emotional faces) and non-social stimuli. Treatment effects on state anxiety and oculomotor responses were characterized using traditional metrics and a novel trial-history informed dynamic control framework. RESULTS: Losartan reduced state anxiety irrespective of sex but induced sexually dimorphic effects on attentional control. In females, losartan enhanced performance by reducing endpoint error without altering latency. Conversely, in males, losartan increased endpoint error and prolonged latency of the first correct saccade. Trial-history analyses revealed losartan reduced error probabilities following errors and repeat trials in both sexes. Yet, following correct trials, females receiving losartan maintained lower error probabilities, while males exhibited higher errors, potentially reflecting failure to disengage from effortful control. CONCLUSIONS: The RAS modulates anxiety and attentional control, the latter sex-dependently. AT1R blockade reconfigures attentional processing and adaptive control, suggesting sex-specific therapeutic potential in disorders characterized by excessive anxiety and attentional dysregulation. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov; https://clinicaltrials.gov/;NCT06329050.

Humans

Effect of Smoking in Oropharyngeal Cancer Treated With TORS: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: While smoking has been implicated as a risk factor for recurrence in HPV-associated oropharyngeal squamous cell cancer (OPSCC) treated with definitive chemoradiation, its prognostic impact on surgically treated OPSCC is less clear. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, Embase, CENTRAL, and Scopus. REVIEW METHODS: Articles describing patients with HPV-associated OPSCC treated with transoral robotic surgery (TORS), which reported oncologic outcomes by smoking history, were included. RESULTS: 2079 patients were included across 12 studies. Median age was 58.5&#x2009;years, and 1808 (87.0%) were male. HPV-associated disease was reported in 1681 (80.9%) patients. T stage was most commonly T2 in 831 (40.0%) and T1 in 764 (36.7%). N stage was N2 in 854 (41.1%), N1 in 544 (26.2%), and N0 in 307 (14.8%). 931 (44.8%) were considered individuals with a smoking history, while 1045 (50.3%) were considered without a smoking history. Median follow up was 33.7&#x2009;months. Meta-analysis using a fixed effects model demonstrated an overall hazard ratio of 1.4 (95% confidence interval 1.0-2.0) for disease recurrence, 2.7 (95% confidence interval 1.5-4.8) for overall survival, and 1.4 (95% confidence interval 0.4-4.6) for disease specific survival. CONCLUSIONS: In this population of predominantly HPV-associated OPSCC treated with TORS, meta-analysis demonstrated no significant difference in recurrence-free survival or disease-specific survival between individuals with and without a smoking history. Individuals with a smoking history appeared to have worse overall survival, although only five studies reported on this outcome. Further research is required to clarify the prognostic influence of smoking on OPSCC treated with TORS.

Humans

The global prevalence of horizontal strabismus: A systematic review and meta-analysis with a focus on ethnic variation.

The prevalence of the 2 types of horizontal strabismus, esotropia and exotropia, varies considerably between studies. This variability has been attributed to factors such as geography/environment, research methodology, age of study subjects, and/or ethnicity. Comprehensive estimates of regional and global prevalences of esotropia and exotropia are lacking, making it difficult to recognize true patterns, trends, and etiologies. We compile prevalences and ratios of esotropia to exotropia from 315 population-based studies and 374 clinic-based studies. We analyze data to assess effects of ethnicity, geography, age, and we identify generational changes of horizontal strabismus. Major ethnicities differ in patterns and ratios of esotropia and exotropia prevalence, not only in Caucasians and East Asians, but also Latinos/Hispanics, South Asians, Africans, and Native Americans. Compared to population-based studies, clinic-based studies underestimate exotropia frequency. By weighing prevalences according to the population size of ethnicities, we estimate the worldwide prevalence of horizontal strabismus in the current generation at 1.81% (138.5 million people), comprising 60.0 million people with esotropia (0.67%) and 87.5 million with exotropia (1.14%). In the previous generation, the worldwide prevalence of horizontal strabismus was 1.64% (86.5 million people), comprising 50.5 million with esotropia (0.96%) and 36.0 million with exotropia (0.68%). Esotropia and exotropia prevalences differ between generations within the same ethnicity, indicating that extrinsic factors can modify the underlying intrinsic (genetic) disposition.

Humans

Cardiometabolic Multimorbidity Increases the Risk of Hip Fracture: A Longitudinal Cohort Study Based on CHARLS.

BACKGROUND: Cardiometabolic Multimorbidity (CMM) is defined as the co-occurrence of two or more conditions among heart disease, diabetes mellitus, stroke, and hypertension. Previous studies have shown associations between cardiometabolic diseases and fragility fractures; however, the relationship between CMM and hip fractures remains unclear in the Chinese population. This study therefore aims to investigate this association in a Chinese cohort to inform fracture prevention strategies. METHODS: This prospective cohort study used data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) collected from 2011 to 2020. Participants from the 2011 baseline survey cohort were initially included. Subsequently, individuals were sequentially excluded if they were under 45&#x2009;years of age, had incomplete baseline CMM information, had a history of hip fracture, lost to follow-up, or had missing data on confounders. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, Cox proportional hazards regression, subgroup analyses, and sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the association between CMM and the risk of hip fracture. RESULTS: A total of 6314 participants aged 45&#x2009;years and older were included, of whom 544 had CMM. Over a 9-year follow-up period, 287 incident hip fractures (4.55%) were identified. Among these, 36 participants had been diagnosed with CMM at baseline, whereas 251 had not. The incidence of hip fracture was significantly higher in participants with CMM than in those without CMM (13% vs. 8%, p&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.015). After full adjustment for confounders, multivariable Cox regression showed that CMM was associated with a 70% increased risk of hip fracture (HR&#x2009;=&#x2009;1.70, 95% CI: 1.318-2.47; p&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.005). Subgroup analyses indicated that age and history of falls were significant effect modifiers. The association between CMM and hip fracture was more pronounced in participants under 60&#x2009;years old (P for interaction&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.048) and those with a history of falls (P for interaction&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.014). CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that CMM increases the risk of hip fracture, particularly among relatively younger individuals and those with a history of falls.

Humans

Risk Factors for Long-Term Health-Related Quality-of-Life and Mental Health Outcomes in Traumatic Brain Injury: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) often leads to long-term disability, including persistent mental health issues and lower health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Early interventions can improve recovery, but because resources limit routine monitoring of all patients, trauma care remains largely symptom-driven. The combination of long-term disability and limited capacity for routine follow-up highlights the need for risk-stratified follow-up care and reliable evidence on early prognostic factors. However, the existing literature is sparse and methodologically heterogeneous, limiting the clinical applicability of findings. We therefore conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify early risk factors for poorer long-term mental health and HRQoL outcomes. A systematic search of seven electronic databases identified studies of adult patients with TBI, with outcomes assessed at least 6 months postdischarge. Two authors independently screened the studies, assessed the risk of bias, and extracted the data. We pooled effect estimates using a random-effects meta-analysis and calculated 95% prediction intervals. A narrative synthesis was applied when meta-analysis was not feasible. The review was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42024576912) and reported in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Of the 8,104 articles screened, 64 studies met the inclusion criteria (n = 334,672). Most studies (58%) had a low risk of bias. Female sex, socioeconomic disadvantage, psychiatric history, assaultive-related injuries, and previous TBI were consistently associated with worse long-term outcomes. Across meta-analyses, assault-related injuries more than doubled the odds of post-traumatic stress disorder (odds ratio [OR] = 2.72; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.01-3.66, I2 = 0%). Higher odds were also observed among females (OR = 1.33; 95% CI: 1.11-1.59, I2 = 0%), individuals with prior TBI (OR = 1.56; 95% CI: 1.07-2.27, I2 = 0%), and those with psychiatric history (OR = 2.38; 95% CI: 1.83-3.10, I2 = 48%). We found that female sex (OR = 1.72; 95% CI: 1.38-2.16, I2 = 58%), prior TBI (OR = 1.52; 95% CI: 1.25-1.85, I2 = 0%), and psychiatric history (OR = 3.25; 95%CI: 1.86-5.69, I2 = 98%) were associated with higher odds of depression. Furthermore, higher pooled anxiety scores were observed in females and in individuals with a psychiatric history. The study identified several readily available factors present before or at discharge that are associated with poor long-term HRQoL and mental health outcomes. Leveraging these factors in follow-up protocols, prediction modeling, and clinical decision support systems may facilitate risk-stratified postdischarge care for TBI patients.

Humans