Fertility incentives and disincentives.
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Several countries have attempted to change human fertility through economic incentives. This paper presents simple mathematical models of the participation of couples in a locally funded program of economic incentives. The models take as a springboard China's one-child program. Localities with low per capita incentives attract few couples to the program, while localities with high incentives attract many couples at first, but the value of the benefits is then watered down. The models show that participation in the program may persistently oscillate or may decay to a stationary level. Which behavior occurs is determined by whether there are decreasing, constant, or increasing returns in the rates of participation in response to successive equal increments in the incentive offered, and by the extent to which prospective parents learn from experience with past oscillations in the incentives. The models raise many empirical questions about the dynamics of incentive programs.
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Incentive proposals for fertility control have stimulated considerable debate and only narrowly conceived trials. As a result, there exists a tendency to dismiss almost offhandedly the entire concept of using material incentives to further contraceptive practice before any have been adequately tried. Moreover, a majority of proposals thus far have been characterized by a search to uncover the "one best way" to circumvent the myriad frustrations encountered in attempting to reduce birthrates in traditional societies.
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Fertility rates for Alaska Natives based on officially registered births have shown considerable change since 1950, reflecting the increasing incorporation of this group into the dominant American culture. Their fertility experience has in many regards been similar to that of developing countries during the process of modernization. A gradual rise in fertility prior to 1962 was most likely the result of increased fecundity due to declining breast feeding. The rapid decline after that time is seen as a response to increasing incentives for fertility control. The decline was facilitated by the beginning of family planning programs in 1965.
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Pronatalist programs and their effects in Europe are reviewed from the 1930s to the present, with individual attention given to France, West Germany, and Romania. The author finds that "where there are low levels of fertility, pronatalist incentives result primarily in accelerating the birth of the second child to an earlier time, especially among younger couples. Average completed family size tends to change little, with usually only a slight increase in the proportion of women giving birth to a third child."
A pilot study of a health services program for never-pregnant high-school students, which stresses development of incentives for personal involvement in their own health care, reports a low incidence of unintended pregnancy among girls who requested contraceptives. The social and emotional characteristics of those who continued contraceptive use are compared with the small group who had uninteneded pregnancies.