Age at first birth and completed family size in West Malaysia.
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The focus of this work is the analysis of changes in completed family size and possible determinants of that size over time, in an attempt to characterize the evolution of reproductive patterns during the demographic transition. With this purpose in mind, time trends are studied in relation to the mean number of live births per family (as an indirect measure of fertility), using family reconstitution techniques to trace the reproductive history of each married woman. The population surveyed is a Spanish rural community called Lanciego, located at the southern end of the province of Alava (Basque Country). A total of 24,510 parish records of baptisms, marriages and burials made between 1800 and 1969 were examined to obtain the demographic data set. For each reconstituted family, the variables included in the study were the number of live births per family or family size (FAMS), year of marriage (YEAR), age at marriage of both partners (AMAN, AWOM), wife's age at the end of marriage (WEND), duration of marriage (MARD), age at first maternity (A1CH), length of reproductive span (REPS) and number of children dying before their first anniversary (MINF). Through a principal component analysis, three factors were found that explained more than 75% of the total variance. Association of variables in factors I and III was particularly useful in characterizing the variability of mean family size in pre-transitional, transitional and post-transitional cohorts. During demographic transition, a decreasing trend is observed in the variables FAMS, REPS and MINF, while variables AWOM, AMAN, WEND and A1CH show a tendency to increase over the 20th century. Results obtained by multiple regression analysis confirm that the best predictors of family size (dependent variable) were REPS and MINF, which between them explained over 85% of the total variation in FAMS (R2 = 0.853). In Lanciego, birth control seems to be present on the evidence of an increase in age at first maternity and a decrease in age at last parturition, indicating that the beginning of the reproductive span is delayed and its end is brought forward. Interaction between family size and infant mortality is discussed in the light of various hypotheses, including replacement of descendants, the so-called biological effect and the theory of r and k selection.
The Anabaptist Amish, Hutterite and Mennonite peoples trace their origins to the Reformation. Although they share certain beliefs, such as adult baptism and the separation of church and state, each group is culturally unique. The Hutterite and Amish are highly fertile and their populations exhibit stable rates of growth. These demographic characteristics reflect communal living among the Hutterites and labor intensive farming practices among the Amish. The Mennonites are the most receptive Anabaptist group to outside socioeconomic influences and provide a demographic contrast to the more conservative Amish and Hutterites. Demographic data collected during a study of aging in Mennonite population samples from Goessel and Meridian, Kansas, 1980, and Henderson, Nebraska, 1981, formed the basis of a cohort analysis in order to assess fertility change over time. Completed family size has decreased significantly in all three communities since 1870. Since the early 1900's the mean age of the mother at first birth has fluctuated but the mean age of mother at the birth of the last child is decreasing significantly for the communities of Goessel and Henderson, thus effectively shortening the reproductive span. The pattern is somewhat different for Meridian, the most conservative of the three communities.
"This paper proposes and tests a dynamic model that [analyzes] time allocation decisions and fertility choices. The latter consist of timing of children and completed family size. [The author emphasizes] the need to integrate both types of choices in order to arrive at a meaningful empirical analysis and shows that, with exceptions, research on female labor supply has largely ignored the progress made in studies on fertility.... The estimation results, obtained by the maximum likelihood method from the [U.S.] Panel Study of Income Dynamics,...indicate support for the model as well as the need for further research."
We compare the frequency distribution of gene family sizes in the complete genomes of six bacteria (Escherichia coli, Haemophilus influenzae, Helicobacter pylori, Mycoplasma genitalium, Mycoplasma pneumoniae, and Synechocystis sp. PCC6803), two Archaea (Methanococcus jannaschii and Methanobacterium thermoautotrophicum), one eukaryote (Saccharomyces cerevisiae), the vaccinia virus, and the bacteriophage T4. The sizes of the gene families versus their frequencies show power-law distributions that tend to become flatter (have a larger exponent) as the number of genes in the genome increases. Power-law distributions generally occur as the limit distribution of a multiplicative stochastic process with a boundary constraint. We discuss various models that can account for a multiplicative process determining the sizes of gene families in the genome. In particular, we argue that, in order to explain the observed distributions, gene families have to behave in a coherent fashion within the genome; i.e., the probabilities of duplications of genes within a gene family are not independent of each other. Likewise, the probabilities of deletions of genes within a gene family are not independent of each other.
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The author examines differentials in age-specific fertility by place of birth among Australian women. The data are from one percent public-use samples of both persons and households files of the 1981 census. "This paper reports estimates of the general fertility rates, completed family sizes and age-specific fertility rates for a selection of birthplace and regional groups." It is determined that, to a large extent, the fertility patterns of the 1970s apply for the 1980s
"Australia's fertility has declined significantly since the 1950s, and has remained below the long-term replacement level since 1976. The current trend appears to be towards a further decline. This paper describes the patterns of the fertility decline in terms of age and parity of the mother, and the effect on recent fertility decline of the postponement of marriage and family formation. The implications of the continued decline in fertility on completed family size are studied by reference to fertility patterns of marriage cohorts."
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Among the Kipsigis, a population of south-western Kenya who do not use contraception, age at menarche and age at last live birth could be determined for a cohort of post-menopausal women, through reference to clitoridectomy ceremonies that can easily be dated. While a woman's age at last live birth was strongly associated with the length of her reproductive lifespan, completed family size was better predicted by age at menarche. The demographic implications of variation in menarcheal age are discussed.
The 1984-85 Pakistan Contraceptive Prevalence Survey showed that urban wives had more than twice the literacy rate of rural wives. The present study explored the relationship of the rural-urban gap in female literacy to differences in contraceptive use. In rural areas, literacy did not increase women's perceptions of having reached a 'sufficient' number of living children, although the opposite was true for urban areas. Yet rural women with an 'insufficient' number of living children were more likely to use contraception if they were literate, as did their urban counterparts. Thus, raising the literacy rate in rural Pakistan would not narrow the rural-urban gap in contraception to cease childbearing but would narrow the rural-urban gap in contraception used to space wanted births further apart. Recommendations for government policy are made.
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