Search PubMed⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search PubMed

Results for “Epidemics”

Search indexed PubMed citations on genomics, clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health. Explore titles, authors and supplied subject terms, then open the PubMed record.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2000

[Temporal and geographical variation in epidemics determined from the results of an infectious disease surveillance system in Japan description of epidemic patterns by data-based criteria for epidemic periods].

OBJECTIVE: After developing criteria for epidemic periods for 16 infectious diseases, we investigated temporal (annual and monthly) and geographical (regional) variation in epidemics. METHODS: Data from an infectious disease surveillance system for the years 1993 to 1997 were used for the analysis. The weekly number of patients per monitoring station was calculated from the data and used in developing criteria for an epidemic period. Based on these latter, we calculated the average number of epidemics occurring at each public health center in a year, an average length of the epidemic period, and the average number of patients per monitoring station reported during an epidemic period. These figures were used to explore temporal (annual, monthly) and geographical (regional) variation. RESULTS: With most diseases, the average number of epidemics occurring at a public health center was 0.3-0.5 per year and the average length of an epidemic period was 6-12 weeks. The average number of patients per monitoring station reported during an epidemic period differed according to the diseases. These indices showed that there were few annual differences, but great monthly differences, in most diseases. The average number of epidemics occurring in a public health center showed regional differences with some diseases. CONCLUSION: Temporal and geographical variation in epidemics for 16 infectious diseases was established by developing criteria for an epidemic period.

Data Collection↗
PubMed1999

[The epidemic hospitals in Poland ordered or inspected by Chief extraordinary Epidemic Commissariat to fight against the epidemics (1920-1924)].

The anti-epidemic compaign in Poland was in the hands of Chief Epidemic Commissariat. The Commissariat was organized on July of 1920y. as a special institution to fight against the acute infectious diseases. In the end of 1920y. it had 188 hospitals with 9,245 beds, with a reserve of 1,185 beds in the Red Cross, military hospitals and so on, it had a total of 12,915 beds. The tables of number 1 and 2 presented the number of the hospitals in Polish department, number of the beds, number of the patients and number of the hospital-days, number of the cases of the typhus, typhoid fever, relapsing fever, dysentery and the other diseases in the first half of 1920y. and in the second half of 1921y. As you see there were the most patients with the typhus. In 1922y. Epidemic Commissariat ordered of 116 hospitals with 10,785 beds. The table of the number 3 presented the number of the cases, deaths and the mortality of the typhus, relapsing fever, typhoid fever, dysentery, variola vera, cholera and the other diseases. In 1923y. Epidemic Commissariat had 112 hospitals with 11,000 beds. The table of number 4 confronted the number of the hospitals, number of the beds and its use in the hospitals ordered or inspected by Commissariat in 1922y. and in 1923y. there were 9 hospitals with 4,050 beds for the repatriates. In the half of 1923y. the repatriation was reduced and Epidemic Commissariat began to liquidate the part of the epidemic hospitals. The Commissariat had in the end of the year 4 hospitals in department of Kielce, 17 hospitals in the department of Bia3ystok, 19 hospitals in the department of Polesie, 11 hospitals in department of Nowogrodek, 14 hospitals in department of Wo3yn, 14 hospitals in department of Wino, 3 hospitals in department of Stanis3wow and 1 hospital with 100 beds in Tarnopol. Medical care of infectious diseases in the epidemic hospitals in 1919-1924 illustrated the table number 5. There were the numbers of the cases, deaths, hospitals, beds and patients. Generally the progress of epidemic hospitals was connected with the repatriation. In 1923y. the repatriation was finished also were reduced the new cases of infectious diseases. Part of the epidemic hospitals were closed and the others were taken by municipal authorities. The epidemic situation in Poland was better step by step and in 1924y. Epidemic Commissariat was liquidated.

Communicable Disease Control↗
PubMed2000

[Hysteria epidemics, epidemic conversion disorder or epidemic somatotrophic disorders?: a new case of a fact for the 21st century].

OBJECTIVES: To describe a new outbreak of "mass hysteria" or "epidemic conversion disorder" occurring in Barcelona in 1997. Based on this outbreak's features differentiating it from other similar outbreaks described in the literature or treated by the same team, to propose a change in the theoretical framework for these group somatomorphic phenomena. DESIGN: A study describing clinical epidemiological research and the interventions performed. SETTING: Urban health centre. Epidemiological research and data analysis performed by the Municipal Health Institute (MHI) of Barcelona. INTERVENTIONS AND MEASUREMENTS: The following were performed: a) Diagnostic screening of population. b) The usual epidemiological surveys of the MHI. c) Semi-structured interviews with the quarter's care professionals. d) Two group sessions with the quarter's health professionals. MHI experts analysed statistically the data provided by measurements b) and c). RESULTS: 276 people (42% of the population of the quarter) were studied. The attack rate was 10%. Data analysis noted that communication of the fantasy of the outbreak of scabies facilitated self-diagnosis and even diagnosis by health professionals. CONCLUSIONS: Given the frequency and the social and health implications of this kind of somatomorphic disorder, both in the developed countries and those "on the road to development", clinical researchers and epidemiologists should not wait to pose the possibility of hysteria until after the "organic" aetiology of an epidemic outbreak has been completely discounted. The second series of conclusions points towards the incorrectness of defining all these outbreaks as mass hysterical disorders. In reality, we should be thinking, more openly and in a more scientifically modern way, of epidemic somatomorphic disorders of various kinds. The outbreak described in the current study could be referred to as the hypochondriform variety of outbreak, whereas those described elsewhere by the same team could be understood as the conversion variety.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2004

Improving epidemic malaria planning, preparedness and response in Southern Africa. Report on the 1st Southern African Regional Epidemic Outlook Forum, Harare, Zimbabwe, 26-29 September, 2004.

Malaria is a major public health problem for countries in the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC). While the endemicity of malaria varies enormously across this region, many of the countries have districts that are prone to periodic epidemics, which can be regional in their extent, and to resurgent outbreaks that are much more localized. These epidemics are frequently triggered by climate anomalies and often follow periods of drought. Many parts of Southern Africa have suffered rainfall deficit over the past three years and countries expect to see increased levels of malaria when the rains return to more 'normal' levels. Problems with drug and insecticide resistance are documented widely and the region contains countries with the highest rates of HIV prevalence to be found anywhere in the world. Consequently, many communities are vulnerable to severe disease outcomes should epidemics occur. The SADC countries have adopted the Abuja targets for Roll Back Malaria in Africa, which include improved epidemic detection and response, i.e., that 60% of epidemics will be detected within two weeks of onset, and 60% of epidemics will be responded to within two weeks of detection. The SADC countries recognize that to achieve these targets they need improved information on where and when to look for epidemics. The WHO integrated framework for improved early warning and early detection of malaria epidemics has been recognized as a potentially useful tool for epidemic preparedness and response planning. Following evidence of successful adoption and implementation of this approach in Botswana, the SADC countries, the WHO Southern Africa Inter-Country Programme on Malaria Control, and the SADC Drought Monitoring Centre decided to organize a regional meeting where countries could gather to assess their current control status and community vulnerability, consider changes in epidemic risk, and develop a detailed plan of action for the forthcoming 2004-2005 season. The following is a report on the 1st Southern African Regional Epidemic Outlook Forum, which was held in Harare, Zimbabwe, 26th-29th September, 2004.

Africa, Southern↗
PubMed2006

Malaria hotspot areas in a highland Kenya site are consistent in epidemic and non-epidemic years and are associated with ecological factors.

BACKGROUND: Malaria epidemics in highland areas of East Africa have caused considerable morbidity and mortality in the past two decades. Knowledge of "hotspot" areas of high malaria incidence would allow for focused preventive interventions in resource-poor areas, particularly if the hotspot areas can be discerned during non-epidemic periods and predicted by ecological factors. METHODS: To address this issue, spatial distribution of malaria incidence and the relationship of ecological factors to malaria incidence were assessed in the highland area of Kipsamoite, Kenya, from 2001-2004. RESULTS: Clustering of disease in a single geographic "hotspot" area occurred in epidemic and non-epidemic years, with a 2.6 to 3.2-fold increased risk of malaria inside the hotspot, as compared to outside the area (P < 0.001, all 4 years). Altitude and proximity to the forest were independently associated with increased malaria risk in all years, including epidemic and non-epidemic years. CONCLUSION: In this highland area, areas of high malaria risk are consistent in epidemic and non-epidemic years and are associated with specific ecological risk factors. Ongoing interventions in areas of ecological risk factors could be a cost-effective method of significantly reducing malaria incidence and blunting or preventing epidemics, even in the absence of malaria early warning systems. Further studies should be conducted to see if these findings hold true in varied highland settings.

Altitude↗
PubMed2003

[Observations on the 1348 plague epidemic. Measures taken to combat its tragic effects and avoid epidemic recrudescence].

When the "Black Death" swept through Europe from southern France in 1348, in the short space of two years the Europeans were hit by one of the most serious epidemics ever recorded in human history. Yersinia pestis reached Europe by sea, its contamination propagated by the Genoese ships coming from the Crimean port of Jaffa. For the first time the world experienced microbiological unification: East and West were equally involved in the tragedy that spread, and no town remained unscathed during the various epidemic waves which succeeded one another in the following three centuries. The authors of this article describe how and why the epidemic spread, as well as the factors that led to the swift, and often fatal, involment of millions of Europeans. The second part of the article deals with the measures taken by the healthcare authorities of European towns and countries in order to halt the proliferation of the disease. According to the data and observations by authoritative authors, selected among the many who studied the disease that from the 14th century spread like a scourge throughout the known world at the time, the epidemic could have been even more serious, in terms of mortality and morbidity, without the disciplinary and provisional health measures taken. The experience gained in Italy and all over Europe at the time proved useful not only to better manage the epidemics which cyclically broke out, but also to efficiently combat the cholera epidemics of the 19th century. With the 14th century plague epidemic, the Europeans and their political and administrative representatives may well have realized for the very first time that contamination could be combatted by adopting a set of rational, scientific norms - although in practice such rules were mostly inspired by misguided scientific theories. Humankind was no longer alone. A new society was emerging, one that was not going to passively accept the more or less mysterious ways of a superior being of fate. The Italian and German city-states, the emerging nations (France, England, Austria, Spain, Holland) developed and adopted procedures to control the epidemic - at the first on an ad hoc basis, then permanently. Sometimes success was achieved but always at a high price on the part of the individual and the local community. The path to an epidemic-free existence for humankind was still a long one.

History, Medieval↗
PubMed1977

The investigation of a recurrence of an AHC virus epidemic at Lucknow: a serosurvey for AHC virus antibodies before and after the epidemic.

An epidemic of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) recurred at Lucknow during July to September 1975, after a gap of 4 years. Out of the 35 cases investigated thoroughly, 20 Entero-70-like cytopathogenic agents were isolated from the conjunctiva which were neutralized by antisera against AHC virus J670/71 of Japan. Seroconversion was seen in 7 out of 11 paired sera from patients. Serological study was also done on 100 sera collected before the AHC epidemic of 1971, 100 sera after 1971 and 100 sera after 1975 epidemic. There were no neutralizing antibodies in the pre-epidemic period, while 18% of sera after the first epidemic and 32% after the second epidemic showed antibodies. The incidence of antibodies was highest (43%) in children aged below 10 years. Of the children born after the first epidemic, 44% had antibodies. Thus our findings show that the AHC virus appeared for the firt time at Lucknow in 1971 and the almost complete absence of disease in children, and its mildness during second epidemic, may be due to immunity.

Adult↗
PubMed2005

A new explanatory model of an SIR disease epidemic: a knowledge-based, probabilistic approach to epidemic analysis.

A new explanatory model for epidemic analysis is presented; it has a knowledge based component and a probabilistic computational component. The former assembles details of household characteristics, social networks and connectivity in the community--'knowledge'--which is used to determine the structure of the computational component. The latter links individuals and households through statistically-defined opportunities for contacts and, by repeated trials, determines an average longitudinal time course (epidemic curve) of the simulated infection as it spreads through the community from inception to extinction of the epidemic. The model thus aims to describe the epidemic itself, rather than any abstraction of it. In application to a 1955-56, self-contained epidemic of an SIR disease, variola minor, the model generates 1 dominant longitudinal pattern that matches closely the epidemic curve of observed daily case rates; it is suggested that other patterns indicate different ways in which the epidemic might have evolved. The model can be used to show how differing community characteristics would affect the simulated epidemic.

Brazil↗
PubMed2001

Dietary protective and risk factors for esophageal and stomach cancers in a low-epidemic area for stomach cancer in Jiangsu Province, China: comparison with those in a high-epidemic area.

Comparative epidemiological studies with ecological and case-control approaches in high- and low-epidemic areas of China have provided us with much evidence with regard to risk and benefit in the environment. To clarify how dietary factors are involved in esophageal and stomach cancer development, we performed a case-control study in a low-epidemic area, and compared the findings with those obtained earlier for a high-epidemic area for stomach cancer in the same Jiangsu Province, China. We recruited 199 and 187 cases with esophageal and stomach cancers, respectively, and 333 population-based common controls. Odds ratios (ORs) for esophageal and stomach cancers were calculated with adjustment for potential confounding factors, using an unconditional logistic model. Current and former smoking elevated the OR for esophageal cancer, along with high intake of pickled vegetables and broiled meat, while decreased ORs were observed for frequently consumed raw vegetables and garlic. With regard to stomach cancer, ORs were increased with frequent consumption of salty fish, leftover gruel, and broiled meat, and lowered by snap bean consumption. The present risk factors were common to the previously obtained results in the high-epidemic area, and similarly distributed in each general population. While more protective factors were observed in the high-epidemic area, their penetrance was much greater in the low-epidemic area. The present study thus suggests that frequent vegetable and garlic consumption contributes to low mortality rates for esophageal and stomach cancers in a low-epidemic area, counteracting similar exposure levels for risk factors as in the high-epidemic area.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

Evaluation of a method for issuing warnings pre-epidemics and epidemics in Japan by infectious diseases surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Simple methods have been developed to warn of pre-epidemics and epidemics in small areas using data of infectious diseases surveillance. Epidemic warnings are made if the index of cases per week per sentinel medical institution is greater than a defined value. A pre-epidemic warning means that an epidemic warning will be given in the following four weeks. While the methods are used routinely for surveillance in Japan, they remain to be validated. METHODS: Infectious diseases surveillance data of influenza-like illness and 12 pediatric diseases in the fiscal year between 1999 and 2001 were used in the analysis. We examined the frequency of warnings, temporal changes in the index before and after the onset of a warning, and the sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of pre-epidemic warnings. RESULTS: For the majority of the diseases investigated, the proportion of weeks in which a warning was issued ranged between 0% and 10%. In several diseases including influenza-like illness, we observed a rapid increase and gradual decrease in the index before and after a warning. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of a pre-epidemic warning were 90.4%, 93.7% and 23.9% for influenza-like illness, and ranged between 25.1-54.2%, 86.1-99.2%, and 2.5-20.8% for the pediatric diseases (chickenpox, rubella, measles, and mumps), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The study showed that the methods used for determining whether or not to issue an epidemic warning were satisfactory in some diseases, including influenza-like illness, and may need to be improved in several other diseases.

Communicable Diseases↗
PubMed1996

The El Niño Southern Oscillation and the historic malaria epidemics on the Indian subcontinent and Sri Lanka: an early warning system for future epidemics?

The recurrent great malaria epidemics which occurred in the Punjab province of former British India and Ceylon before the introduction of residual insecticides have been related to excessive and failing monsoon rains respectively. In the arid Punjab, rainfall facilitated breeding and increased the lifespan of the mosquito vector and, in the wet part of Ceylon, failing monsoon rains caused rivers to pool, creating more favourable breeding conditions. The periodic fluctuations in monsoon rainfall and epidemic malaria are here explained in relation to the El Niño Southern Oscillation. In the Punjab, epidemic malaria between 1868 and 1943 correlates significantly (r = 0.34, P < 0.005) with the sea surface temperature anomalies in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific, a parameter of the oscillation, and epidemics were significantly more prevalent in a year with a wet monsoon following a dry El Niño year than in other years. In Ceylon, epidemics were significantly more prevalent during El Niño years, when the same south-west monsoon tends to fail. With the reduced reliance on residual insecticides and the recurrence of epidemic malaria on the Indian subcontinent, advances made in predicting El Niño events may be used to forecast high and low risk years for future malaria epidemics.

Disease Outbreaks↗
PubMed1996

Epidemic typhoid in Chile: analysis by molecular and conventional methods of Salmonella typhi strain diversity in epidemic (1977 and 1981) and nonepidemic (1990) years.

From 1977 to 1986, Chile experienced an important typhoid fever epidemic, despite statistics that indicated apparently improving levels of sanitation of drinking water and sewage disposal. The lack of antibiotic resistance among the Salmonella typhi strains isolated during this period, the mild clinical presentation of the disease, and the initially low level of efficacy of the S. typhi Ty21a vaccine in the population exposed to the epidemic suggested that this epidemic might have resulted from the dissemination of S. typhi strains with unique characteristics. To investigate this hypothesis, we used conventional methods (bacteriophage typing and biotyping) and molecular methods (restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis, ribotyping, IS200 typing, and PCR amplification of the fliC-d gene) to study a population of 149 S. typhi isolates during 1977, 1981, and 1990, the years that included periods with low (when the disease was endemic) and high (when the disease was epidemic) morbidities. Our results indicate that these S. typhi isolates in Chile represent a number of highly diverse variants of the clone of S. typhi with a worldwide distribution described by Selander et al. (R. K. Selander, P. Beltran, N.H. Smith, R. Helmuth, F.A. Rubin, D.J. Kopecko, K. Ferris, B.D. Tall, A. Cravioto, and J.M. Musser, Infect. Immun. 58:2262-2275, 1990). For example, we detected 26 PstI and 10 ClaI ribotypes among 47 and 16 S. typhi strains belonging to this clone, respectively. These results suggest that the Chilean epidemic was probably produced by multiple sources of infection because of deficient sanitary conditions. These findings illustrate the usefulness of molecular methods for characterizing the potential causes of the typhoid epidemics and the possible routes of transmission of S. typhi strains in typhoid epidemics.

Bacterial Typing Techniques↗