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Results for “Ecological niche modeling”

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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2006

Using ecological-niche modeling as a conservation tool for freshwater species: live-bearing fishes in central Mexico.

Ecological-niche modeling is an important tool for conservation assessment of terrestrial species; however, its applicability has been poorly explored in the aquatic realm. Goodeines are a monophyletic group of viviparous freshwater fishes that are well known in central Mexico, with 41 species in 19 genera. Given the number of threats to biodiversity in the region, goodeines represent an excellent model with which to test novel conservation approaches. We assessed the conservation status of the goodeines (37 species), based on their potential distributions predicted by ecological-niche models generated with the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction (GARP). Predictions of species' distributions performed well in six out of eight species for which sufficient information was available to perform estimations of the area under the curve (AUC) in receiver operating characteristic plots. Extensive field surveys conducted in recent years in most cases confirm the models' predictions. Species richness exhibited a nested pattern, in which the number of species increased toward the center of the distribution of the group. At the basin level, the Río Ameca Basin had the highest number of species (11), chiefly because of the high number of microendemic species (6). Human activities within water bodies (e.g., extensive aquaculture) and drainages (e.g., agriculture, ranching, industrial activities) have affected most goodeines severely, given the deleterious effects of pollution and introductions of exotic species, such as carp (Cyprinus carpio, Ctenopharingodon idella) and tilapia (Oreochromis spp.). Our results paint a pessimistic picture for the long-term survival of many goodeines in their natural environment, and realistic conservation measures are complex and would require immediate protection of specific areas that we have identified. Ecological-niche modeling is a suitable tool for conservation assessment of freshwater species, but availability of environmental information on aquatic systems (e.g., temperature, water speed, pH, oxygen concentration) would improve distributional predictions.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2002

Ecologic niche modeling and differentiation of populations of Triatoma brasiliensis neiva, 1911, the most important Chagas' disease vector in northeastern Brazil (hemiptera, reduviidae, triatominae).

Ecologic niche modeling has allowed numerous advances in understanding the geographic ecology of species, including distributional predictions, distributional change and invasion, and assessment of ecologic differences. We used this tool to characterize ecologic differentiation of Triatoma brasiliensis populations, the most important Chagas' disease vector in northeastern Brazil. The species' ecologic niche was modeled based on data from the Fundação Nacional de Saúde of Brazil (1997-1999) with the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Prediction (GARP). This method involves a machine-learning approach to detecting associations between occurrence points and ecologic characteristics of regions. Four independent "ecologic niche models" were developed and used to test for ecologic differences among T. brasiliensis populations. These models confirmed four ecologically distinct and differentiated populations, and allowed characterization of dimensions of niche differentiation. Patterns of ecologic similarity matched patterns of molecular differentiation, suggesting that T. brasiliensis is a complex of distinct populations at various points in the process of speciation.

Animals↗
PubMed2002

Ecologic niche modeling and potential reservoirs for Chagas disease, Mexico.

Ecologic niche modeling may improve our understanding of epidemiologically relevant vector and parasite-reservoir distributions. We used this tool to identify host relationships of Triatoma species implicated in transmission of Chagas disease. Associations have been documented between the protracta complex (Triatoma: Triatominae: Reduviidae) with packrat species (Neotoma spp.), providing an excellent case study for the broader challenge of developing hypotheses of association. Species pairs that were identified coincided exactly with those in previous studies, suggesting that local interactions between Triatoma and Neotoma species and subspecies have implications at a geographic level. Nothing is known about sylvatic associates of T. barberi, which are considered the primary Chagas vector in Mexico; its geographic distribution coincided closely with that of N. mexicana, suggesting interaction. The presence of this species was confirmed in two regions where it had been predicted but not previously collected. This approach may help in identifying Chagas disease risk areas, planning vector-control strategies, and exploring parasite-reservoir associations for other emerging diseases.

Animals↗
PubMed2025

Climatic data sources and limitations of ecological niche models impact the estimations of historical ranges and niche overlaps in distantly related Korean salamanders.

BACKGROUND: Ecological niche models (ENMs) and analyses of niche overlap/divergence have become popular methods in ecology and evolutionary biology. These analyses rely on environmental data available from several databases. However, the influence of data sources on these analyses is rarely tested. Here, we test the impact of climatic data choice on the prediction of current and Plio-Pleistocene suitable habitats for two distantly related, but broadly sympatric, salamanders endemic to the Korean Peninsula. We ran MaxEnt separately on WorldClim and CHELSA climate data. We then hindcasted ENMs to five time periods of the Plio-Pleistocene, bracketing the estimated intraspecific divergence times for these species. We then quantified the differences in predictions between WorldClim- and CHELSA-based models. Also, given the sympatry and similar habitat requirements of the two species, we tested for niche overlaps using niche identity and background tests and tested the sensitivity of the results to climatic data choice. RESULTS: The ENMs successfully predicted contemporary suitable habitats for the two species. However, the predictions were highly sensitive to climatic data choice as well as variable combinations. The hindcasted ENMs produced contrasting predictions depending on the choice of climatic dataset and failed to predict suitable habitats for some Pleistocene time periods regardless of the climatic data choice. The niche analyses were also sensitive to climatic data choice, with results suggesting either niche overlaps or divergence depending on the climatic dataset used for the analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights the influence of climatic data choice on the outcomes of ENMs and niche analyses. Our results also underscore the limitations of macroclimate-based ENMs, especially when the species is likely buffered from macroclimatic changes by microhabitat. We argue for the need for additional ecological, ecophysiological, and population genomic studies to better understand the range formation of these enigmatic species.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Lutzomyia vectors for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Southern Brazil: ecological niche models, predicted geographic distributions, and climate change effects.

Geographic and ecological distributions of three Lutzomyia sand flies that are cutaneous leishmaniasis vectors in South America were analysed using ecological niche modelling. This new tool provides a large-scale perspective on species' geographic distributions, ecological and historical factors determining them, and their potential for change with expected environmental changes. As a first step, the ability of this technique to predict geographic distributions of the three species was tested statistically using two subsampling techniques: a random-selection technique that simulates 50% data density, and a quadrant-based technique that challenges the method to predict into broad unsampled regions. Predictivity under both test schemes was highly statistically significant. Visualisation of ecological niches provided insights into the ecological basis for distributional differences among species. Projections of potential geographic distributions across scenarios of global climate change suggested that only Lutzomyia whitmani is likely to be experiencing dramatic improvements in conditions in south-eastern Brazil, where cutaneous leishmaniasis appears to be re-emerging; Lutzomyia intermedia and Lutzomyia migonei may be seeing more subtle improvements in climatic conditions, but the implications are not straightforward. More generally, this technique offers the possibility of new views into the distributional ecology of disease, vector, and reservoir species.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2006

Experimental verification of ecological niche modeling in a heterogeneous environment.

The current range of ecological habitats occupied by a species reflects a combination of the ecological tolerance of the species, dispersal limitation, and competition. Whether the current distribution of a species accurately reflects its niche has important consequences for the role of ecological niche modeling in predicting changes in species ranges as the result of biological invasions and climate change. We employed a detailed data set of species occurrence and spatial variation in biotic and abiotic attributes to model the niche of a native California annual plant, Collinsia sparsiflora. We tested the robustness of our model for both the realized and fundamental niche by planting seeds collected from four populations, representing two ecotypes, into plots that fully represented the five-dimensional niche space described by our model. The model successfully predicted which habitats allowed for C. sparsiflora persistence, but only for one of the two source ecotypes. Our results show that substantial niche divergence has occurred in our sample of four study populations, illustrating the importance of adequately sampling and describing within-species variation in niche modeling.

California↗
PubMed2005

Time-specific ecological niche modeling predicts spatial dynamics of vector insects and human dengue cases.

Numerous human diseases-malaria, dengue, yellow fever and leishmaniasis, to name a few-are transmitted by insect vectors with brief life cycles and biting activity that varies in both space and time. Although the general geographic distributions of these epidemiologically important species are known, the spatiotemporal variation in their emergence and activity remains poorly understood. We used ecological niche modeling via a genetic algorithm to produce time-specific predictive models of monthly distributions of Aedes aegypti in Mexico in 1995. Significant predictions of monthly mosquito activity and distributions indicate that predicting spatiotemporal dynamics of disease vector species is feasible; significant coincidence with human cases of dengue indicate that these dynamics probably translate directly into transmission of dengue virus to humans. This approach provides new potential for optimizing use of resources for disease prevention and remediation via automated forecasting of disease transmission risk.

Aedes↗
PubMed2003

Predicting the geography of species' invasions via ecological niche modeling.

Species' invasions have long been regarded as enormously complex processes, so complex as to defy predictivity. Phases of this process, however, are emerging as highly predictable: the potential geographic course of an invasion can be anticipated with high precision based on the ecological niche characteristics of a species in its native geographic distributional area. This predictivity depends on the premise that ecological niches constitute long-term stable constraints on the potential geographic distributions of species, for which a sizeable body of evidence is accumulating. Hence, although the entire invasion process is indeed complex, the geographic course that invasions are able to take can be anticipated with considerable confidence.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2006

Niche differentiation and fine-scale projections for Argentine ants based on remotely sensed data.

Modeling ecological niches of species is a promising approach for predicting the geographic potential of invasive species in new environments. Argentine ants (Linepithema humile) rank among the most successful invasive species: native to South America, they have invaded broad areas worldwide. Despite their widespread success, little is known about what makes an area susceptible--or not--to invasion. Here, we use a genetic algorithm approach to ecological niche modeling based on high-resolution remote-sensing data to examine the roles of niche similarity and difference in predicting invasions by this species. Our comparisons support a picture of general conservatism of the species' ecological characteristics, in spite of distinct geographic and community contexts.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2003

Predicting distributions of known and unknown reptile species in Madagascar.

Despite the importance of tropical biodiversity, informative species distributional data are seldom available for biogeographical study or setting conservation priorities. Modelling ecological niche distributions of species offers a potential solution; however, the utility of old locality data from museums, and of more recent remotely sensed satellite data, remains poorly explored, especially for rapidly changing tropical landscapes. Using 29 modern data sets of environmental land coverage and 621 chameleon occurrence localities from Madagascar (historical and recent), here we demonstrate a significant ability of our niche models in predicting species distribution. At 11 recently inventoried sites, highest predictive success (85.1%) was obtained for models based only on modern occurrence data (74.7% and 82.8% predictive success, respectively, for pre-1978 and all data combined). Notably, these models also identified three intersecting areas of over-prediction that recently yielded seven chameleon species new to science. We conclude that ecological niche modelling using recent locality records and readily available environmental coverage data provides informative biogeographical data for poorly known tropical landscapes, and offers innovative potential for the discovery of unknown distributional areas and unknown species.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

GIS-based niche modeling for mapping species' habitat.

Ecological "niche modeling" using presence-only locality data and large-scale environmental variables provides a powerful tool for identifying and mapping suitable habitat for species over large spatial extents. We describe a niche modeling approach that identifies a minimum (rather than an optimum) set of basic habitat requirements for a species, based on the assumption that constant environmental relationships in a species' distribution (i.e., variables that maintain a consistent value where the species occurs) are most likely to be associated with limiting factors. Environmental variables that take on a wide range of values where a species occurs are less informative because they do not limit a species' distribution, at least over the range of variation sampled. This approach is operationalized by partitioning Mahalanobis D2 (standardized difference between values of a set of environmental variables for any point and mean values for those same variables calculated from all points at which a species was detected) into independent components. The smallest of these components represents the linear combination of variables with minimum variance; increasingly larger components represent larger variances and are increasingly less limiting. We illustrate this approach using the California Gnatcatcher (Polioptila californica Brewster) and provide SAS code to implement it.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Geographic potential for outbreaks of Marburg hemorrhagic fever.

Marburg virus represents one of the least well-known of the hemorrhagic fever-causing viruses worldwide; in particular, its geographic potential in Africa remains quite mysterious. Ecologic niche modeling was used to explore the geographic and ecologic potential of Marburg virus in Africa. Model results permitted a reinterpretation of the geographic point of infection in the initiation of the 1975 cases in Zimbabwe, and also anticipated the potential for cases in Angola, where a large outbreak recently (2004-2005) occurred. The geographic potential for additional outbreaks is outlined, including in several countries in which the virus is not known. Overall, results demonstrate that ecologic niche modeling can be a powerful tool in understanding geographic distributions of species and other biologic phenomena such as zoonotic disease transmission from natural reservoir populations.

Angola↗
PubMed2003

Migratory birds modeled as critical transport agents for West Nile Virus in North America.

West Nile Virus has spread more rapidly than expected in the Western Hemisphere. We tested Culex mosquitoes and long-distance migratory birds as potential agents of spread for the virus, using a series of techniques, as follows. (1) Mosquito vector distributions were modeled using an ecological niche modeling approach (GARP) to produce a map of suitability of the landscape for mosquito transmission of the virus. (2) Simulations of spread were developed with an algorithm originally developed for modeling the spread of wildfires (EMBYR), seeding an initial presence of the virus in the New York City area. (3) Alternative spread scenarios were developed as (a) just mosquitoes as movement agents (spread simulation seeded once at New York City and allowed to spread across the mosquito suitability surface), versus (b) spread via mosquitoes on local scales in tandem with long-distance colonization with migratory birds as movement agents (spread simulation seeded once at New York City, and again at sites sampled from the winter destinations of birds breeding in southeastern New York State). The first scenario (mosquitoes only) did not coincide with observed patterns of spread, whereas the second (mosquitoes and migratory birds) coincided closely, suggesting that observed patterns of spread are best explained with migratory birds as critical long-distance transport agents; the virus, in regions to which it is transported by migratory birds, then is transmitted enzootically via mosquitoes. Similar simulations of spread were used to predict extensions of the virus in the Western Hemisphere in coming years.

Animal Migration↗
PubMed2004

Geographical potential of Argentine ants (Linepithema humile Mayr) in the face of global climate change.

Determining the spread and potential geographical distribution of invasive species is integral to making invasion biology a predictive science. We assembled a dataset of over 1000 occurrences of the Argentine ant (Linepithema humile), one of the world's worst invasive alien species. Native to central South America, Argentine ants are now found in many Mediterranean and subtropical climates around the world. We used this dataset to assess the species' potential geographical and ecological distribution, and to examine changes in its distributional potential associated with global climate change, using techniques for ecological niche modelling. Models developed were highly predictive of the species' overall range, including both the native distributional area and invaded areas worldwide. Despite its already widespread occurrence, L. humile has potential for further spread, with tropical coastal Africa and southeast Asia apparently vulnerable to invasion. Projecting ecological niche models onto four general circulation model scenarios of future (2050s) climates provided scenarios of the species' potential for distributional expansion with warming climates: generally, the species was predicted to retract its range in tropical regions, but to expand at higher latitude areas.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Environmental factors associated with distribution and range limits of malaria vector Anopheles farauti in Australia.

Ecological factors associated with the narrow coastal distribution of Anopheles farauti Laveran s.s. were investigated using decision tree software and a recently developed software tool that permits analysis of environmental gradients across distributional boundaries. Significant variables identified by these procedures were then used to develop ecological niche models that permitted detailed--and improved--predictions of the species' overall distribution. These methods identified seven climatic factors (four of temperature factors and three atmospheric moisture factors) from among 40 environmental variables related to the range of this species. In addition, the gradient-analysis tool identified elevation as being particularly important. The distributional hypothesis predicted using ecological niche modeling of these factors included all of the record sites from which An. farauti s.s. was collected in northern Australia and successfully reconstructed its narrow limitation to coastal areas. Omission of elevation from analyses resulted in unrealistic predictions of potential distributional areas > 100 km inland, where the species has not been found.

Animals↗
PubMed2025

Conservation genomics of a threatened subtropical Rhododendron species highlights the distinct conservation actions required in marginal and admixed populations.

With the impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities, the underlying threats facing populations with different evolutionary histories and distributions, and the associated conservation strategies necessary to ensure their survival, may vary within a species. This is particularly true for marginal populations and/or those showing admixture. Here, we re-sequence genomes of 102 individuals from 21 locations for Rhododendron vialii, a threatened species distributed in the subtropical forests of southwestern China that has suffered from habitat fragmentation due to deforestation. Population structure results revealed that R. vialii can be divided into five genetic lineages using neutral single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), whereas selected SNPs divide the species into six lineages. This is due to the Guigu (GG) population, which is identified as admixed using neutral SNPs, but is assigned to a distinct genetic cluster using non-neutral loci. R. vialii has experienced multiple genetic bottlenecks, and different demographic histories have been suggested among populations. Ecological niche modeling combined with genomic offset analysis suggests that the marginal population (Northeast, NE) harboring the highest genetic diversity is likely to have the highest risk of maladaptation in the future. The marginal population therefore needs urgent ex situ conservation in areas where the influence of future climate change is predicted to be well buffered. Alternatively, the GG population may have the potential for local adaptation, and will need in situ conservation. The Puer population, which carries the heaviest genetic load, needs genetic rescue. Our findings highlight how population genomics, genomic offset analysis, and ecological niche modeling can be integrated to inform targeted conservation.

Rhododendron↗
PubMed2026

Genetically diverse populations hold the keys to climatic adaptation in the Western barn owl (Tyto alba).

Although local adaptation influences species distributions, its role in driving evolutionary resilience under climate change remains unclear. Current predictive models focus on genetic adaptation to present climates, providing limited insight into future adaptive capacity. We hypothesise that historical responses to climatic shifts can reveal candidate loci for local adaptation in the future. Combining ecological niche modelling and genomic analyses, we investigate spatiotemporal patterns and mechanisms of local adaptation of the Western Palearctic barn owl (Tyto alba). Ecological modelling reveals that barn owls now occupy a broader climatic niche than during the Last Glacial Maximum. Genomic analyses indicate ongoing adaptation, with regions under selection linked to environmental factors across all populations. We find that local adaptation drives evolutionary changes across populations, enabling colonisation of new habitats and shaping responses to climate change in resident populations. We show that standing genetic diversity plays a crucial role in adaptation to past, present, and future environmental shifts.

Animals↗
PubMed2026

The evolutionary origins of the parthenogenetic lizard Aspidoscelis tesselatus.

Most vertebrate species reproduce sexually. The whiptail lizards (Aspidoscelis) are a notable exception; at least 11 of the 45 recognized species are parthenogenetic. Here, we focus on one such species (Aspidoscelis tesselatus) as a case study to understand how parthenogenetic species originate and evolve. Using genome-wide sequence data and ecological niche modelling, we find that A. tesselatus likely arose from a single hybrid speciation event between A. scalaris and A. marmoratus less than 500,000 years ago. The geographic ranges of A. tesselatus and its parental species overlap currently, and niche modelling shows this zone of sympatry was even broader during the period when A. tesselatus likely formed. We additionally show evidence that A. tesselatus has a dynamic genome post-formation, with de novo mutations, introgression, and double-strand break associated events all contributing to variation within the species. These results show that asexual lineages can continue to be shaped by ongoing genomic and ecological dynamics, illuminating the processes that influence transitions in reproductive mode.

asexuality↗