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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed1987

[Births and cohort size: an empirical test of the Easterlin hypothesis].

The author develops an alternative to the Ahlburg specification of the Easterlin hypothesis concerning the relationship between cohort size and fertility. "In combination with a declining trend in average family size (represented by a linear spline function), the Easterlin effect is found to affect the movement of births in the Netherlands during the period 1950-1985. It should be noted, however, that the trend explains by far the larger fraction of variance of births. The model projects a rise of births until 2000 followed by a decline." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Cohort Studies↗
PubMed1991

On testing Easterlin's hypothesis using relative cohort size as a proxy for relative income: an analysis of Canadian data.

"Measures of Canadian fertility (total fertility rate and fifteen-year age-specific fertility rate...) and relative cohort size (population aged 30-64 years divided by population aged 15-29 years) show a close co-movement between 1940 and 1976 but record a marked departure since then. The application of cointegration techniques to these series (1921-1988) shows that they do not form an equilibrium relationship even over the period 1940-1976. Contrary to the expected relationship between relative cohort size and relative income, income data by age groups show that there is no tight relationship between them. The absence of an equilibrium relationship between relative cohort size and fertility, therefore, does not necessarily imply that Easterlin's hypothesis is false."

Age Factors↗
PubMed1997

A conversation with Richard Easterlin.

"After an introduction touching on various biographical highlights, this paper summarizes a wide-ranging discussion with Richard Easterlin which occurred in the Autumn of 1996. We considered the Easterlin Hypothesis--its genesis and current status, together with Easterlin's views on attempts to develop measures of relative income--and then moved on to ¿The Fertility Revolution' and questions regarding the applicability of the theory of household choice in modernizing societies. This was followed by a discussion of his early career development and influences on him at that time, ending with ruminations regarding the current state of economics, and the validity of training given to young economists today."

Data Collection↗
PubMed1982

The new Kuznets cycle: a test of the Easterlin-Wachter-Wachter hypothesis.

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the Easterlin-Wachter-Wachter model of the effect of the size of one generation on the size of the succeeding generation. An attempt is made "to identify and test empirically each component of the Easterlin-Wachter-Wachter model..., to show how the components collapse to give a closed demographic model of generation size, and to investigate the impacts of relative cohort size on the economic performance of a cohort." The models derived are then used to generate forecasts of the U.S. birth rate to the year 2050. The results provide support for the major components of the original model.

Americas↗
PubMed1988

A generalized stable model with fluctuating vital rates.

The amenability of the stable population model to certain situations where net maternity function need not be invariant over time is exemplified by relating the changes in fertility at 2 time points by the equation m(a,t) = m(a) h(a,t)/h(t) where the form of h(t) is general and can be determined based on observed birth trajectories. Using the extended form of Easterlin's hypothesis, h(t) is taken as the reciprocal of NRR at t. The model is then applied to project NRR.

Birth Rate↗
PubMed1989

Self-generated fertility waves in a non-linear continuous overlapping generations model.

In this paper, Samuelson's simplified version of the Easterlin theory is extended to a continuous-time model with 3 age groups. This approach enables one to apply the qualitative theory of nonlinear differential equations to show the existence of Easterlin-type cycles. In contrast to the discrete time model we obtain information about the period length of the cycle.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1995

Toward a general analysis of endogenous Easterlin cycles.

Easterlin believed that there were two features associated with the birth cycles he observed: the cycles were related to the labor market, and they might be self-generating. This paper tries to set up a model that contains both of these two features. The authors suppose that the welfare of various age-specific cohorts are determined by their respective marginal productivity, and that the underlying technology which puts together labor force of various age-specific cohorts can be characterized by a general production function. Under these weak assumptions, they show that the well-analyzed cohort and period models along the lines of Lee (1974) are restricted versions of the general setting. Given that both the cohort model and the period model were rejected by statistical tests, the authors adopt the coefficient values obtained from the estimation of the unrestricted version to perform the bifurcation analysis. They go beyond the previous study which focused upon the possible existence of limit cycles, and show that the US fertility limit cycle solution is unstable. Therefore the population trajectory will never converge to that limit cycle.

Americas↗
PubMed1990

Capital accumulation, endogenous population growth, and Easterlin cycles.

"In this paper we attempt to explain the occurrence of population cycles in industrialised economies where the birth rate depends on the difference between the actual and the expected consumption rate. This model of an endogenously growing population brings together Easterlin's idea of an adapting aspiration level with the neoclassical optimal growth paradigm. It is shown that in this highly aggregated demo-economic system (i.e., without inclusion of the age structure of a population) swings both in the economic and demographic variables may exist. The reason behind this 'strange' optimal behaviour is identified to be an intertemporal substitution effect between current and future levels of consumption."

Birth Rate↗
PubMed1990

Capital accumulation, aspiration adjustment, and population growth: limit cycles in an Easterlin-type model.

"One of the recent interesting hypotheses of population growth is due to Easterlin who suggests the possibility of self-generating fluctuations in birth numbers. The present paper tries to answer the question whether feedback mechanisms produce persistent oscillations in population growth. A system of two nonlinear differential equations for the per capita capital stock and the aspiration level is studied by a phase portrait analysis. Using the Poincare-Bendixson theorem we derive sufficient conditions for the existence of a stable limit cycle." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

Demography↗